25 February 2007
2008年台湾独立：中美战略大摊牌
[1249] (2007-02-21)
2008年，陈水扁会搞独立吗？2008年如果陈水扁搞独立，我们该怎么办？这是我们全球华人值得思考的重大战略问题。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
一、 2008年，美国会支持陈水扁宣布台湾独立！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
其实，陈水扁搞不搞独立，不是陈水扁自己能决定的，也不是台湾的几个台独分子所能决定的。陈水扁要想搞独立，首先依靠的是美国的支持。没有美国的支持，陈水扁就没有这个狗胆搞独立。关于这一点，我们都看得很清楚。大家对台湾是美国遏制中国的一张牌的观点，都有一致的认同。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
那么，美国会在2008年支持台湾独立吗？我觉得我们思考这个问题，需要我们从两个方面来考虑：一是美国是否具备协防台湾的能力，即是否具备与中国作战中获得全胜的能力。二是台湾在美国全球战略布局中的地位和作用如何，即为了伊朗，美国会不会舍弃台湾。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
（一）2008年，美国不具备协防台湾的军事能力。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国要协防台湾，而且要确保自己不付出太大的代价来协防台湾，是决定美国是否支持台湾独立的关键所在。我们不否认美国的战争能力，但是，美国会为了台湾，使自己与中国两败俱伤吗？会为了台湾，破坏美国的全球大战略吗？会为了台湾，使自己失去全球霸主地位吗？这是我们思考问题的关键所在。 人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
自前苏联瓦解后，中国就失去了牵制前苏联的战略作用，在某种程度上，中国已经成为美国的敌人。这一点，我们要有深刻的认识。之所以，美国不敢用军事手段攻打我们，是因为我们是一个核大国，是一个导弹大国，是一个国土面积很大的国家，是一个人口众多的国家，是因为美国一极比多强力量没有形成质的差距，是因为中国人不怕死，战斗意志坚决。这些都是美国之所以不敢轻易对我动武的重要原因。96年的台海危机，是美国对我台海战略的重大试探，即评估台湾独立的可行性。但我导弹的威胁，迫使美国放弃了支持台湾独立的战略企图。美国深刻认识到：没有导弹防御系统，拦截不了中国的导弹，避免不了与中国的相互核摧毁，美国就不敢轻易协防台湾。这就是美国的底线。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国的导弹防御系统，在某种程度上，是一个政治工具，即通过这种系统，将他国绑上自己的战车，为自己侵略战争服务；是一个心理战工具，即通过这种系统，可以欺骗本国和他国国民，认为自己安全而支持其侵略战争；是一个军备竞赛的工具，通过开发导弹防御系统，研制先进的立体感知、侦察、控制、打击装备，提高自己的军事打击能力。可以说，美国如果拦截不了我们的导弹，则意味着对台湾的协防就没有任何底气，这也是美国一直以来维持台湾不统不独现状的关键所在。那么，美国的导弹防御系统成功了没有？我只能说NO。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
为什么这么说呢？大家知道：2006年9月，朝鲜发射了几枚导弹，这几枚导弹，是在多次提前告知的情况下发射的，给美国和日本很长的预警时间和部署反导时间。而美国和日本却没有拦截，是美日不愿拦截吗？不可能，这是多好的威慑机会啊！美国会放弃这一个宣扬自己实力的大好机会吗？这说明什么？只能说明，美国和日本的导弹防御系统，至少目前没有任何拦截能力。更何况，拦截系统主要靠空间感知、侦察和通信系统，即靠雷达、卫星等平台，如果是核弹，即使拦截爆炸，势必摧毁这些雷达系统，如果事先对敌卫星进行摧毁，则导弹防御系统就是一堆废铁。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
所以，实事求是地说，美国2008年前，没有协防台湾的军事实力。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
（二）2008年，为了美国全球战略利益，美国会支持台湾独立！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国目前在全球的一切战略布局，都是为了其称霸世界服务的。美国要称霸世界，侵占中东，确保自己对石油的绝对控制权，是美国称霸世界的关键。所以，彻底侵占和控制伊拉克和伊朗，是美国未来几年的首要目标。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
目前，伊朗是中国和俄罗斯最主要的后台。如何以进攻，来干扰中国和俄罗斯的注意力和对伊朗的支持能力，是美国决策者思考问题的出发点。一是如何离间中国和俄罗斯的关系，避免中国和俄罗斯联手干预美国的入侵伊朗、控制中东战略。二是如何利用台湾问题、中日钓鱼岛问题、中印领土之争问题等问题，来牵制中国的军事力量和注意力。三是如何利用车臣问题、俄罗斯与独联体国家问题、俄罗斯与欧洲矛盾问题、俄罗斯与周边邻国矛盾、俄罗斯内部矛盾等，来牵制俄罗斯的军事力量和注意力。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
从这个意义上讲，2008年，台湾有宣布独立的可能。因为，台湾已经成为美国制约中国支持伊朗的最重要的棋子。为了增加这颗棋子的筹码，美国将日本、韩国拉入支持台湾独立的集团，以增加最大程度消耗中国实力的概率。所以，有网友撰文，认为美国欲以伊朗换台湾的可能性是存在的。因为，台湾只能暂时遏制中国，在协防台湾中，美国得不到任何好处，相反还因为与中国的战争，而两败俱伤，使自己丧失了称霸世界的机会。伊朗却不同，侵占伊朗，意味着美国霸占中东计划成功，美国可以利用石油，赚取大量利益，确保自身发展优势，同时可以控制欧洲和日本，使欧洲和日本死心塌地跟随自己，在逐一扼杀中国和俄罗斯，最终取得统一世界的战略目标。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
从最近陈水扁搞法理台独走出实质性步伐；从日本和台湾加强军事联系；从韩国冬运会制造“长白山事件”，挑拨中国和朝鲜关系等上来看，美国2008年，可能牺牲台湾，来消耗我实力的战略意图。联合日本和韩国，目的是增加最大限度消耗中国的概率。特别是韩国，先利用几个女运动员宣示“长白山”事件，然后在收容所制造火灾，制造中韩之间的仇恨气氛，然后传出要与台湾加强合作，对抗我的企图。这些事件都是精心策划的，给自己与台湾加强关系制造借口。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国支持陈水扁2008年搞台独，同时也会支持日本、印度、韩国与中国对抗。最大限度地牵制和消耗中国的实力。所以，美国对印度是有求必应，目的就是如此！极力拍摄《南京大屠杀》电影和解密731事件，等等，目的不是为了正义，而是为了挑起中日之间的仇恨，使中日之间一定要打起来，这样才会最大限度增加台湾独立成功的概率。很简单的道理，美国为什么过去不拍摄此电影，过去不解密731事件？现在却炒作中日历史事件，其动机和意图是阴险毒辣的。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
所以，总结地说，为了美国的中东计划的成功，在不具备协防台湾的能力下，2008年，美国也会支持台湾，通过台湾，来最大限度地消耗中国的实力，以确保自己能够控制中东，美国一旦控制中东，就牢牢占据巨大战略优势，最终从能源上扼杀中国，达到最终控制中国的战略目的。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
二、台湾独立，我们的对策和措施！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国支持台湾独立的算盘上，如果没有日本和韩国对台湾的支持，就起不到消耗中国的战略意图，让台湾独立无异于帮助中国统一。因为美国知道，凭台湾的那点军事力量，不足给大陆军事力量打个牙祭！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
所以，在某种程度上，2008年，美国支不支持台湾独立，陈水扁敢不敢独立，最重要的是看日本对台湾的支持程度如何，即日本有没有胆量和中国决一死战！这才是问题的关键。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
从中日的海空军力量对比来说，日本确实具备与中国海空军决一死战的意图和能力。但是日本担心的是无法拦截中国的导弹，特别是核弹。日本具有很多软肋，自身地形狭小，战略空间小；人口密集；资源匮乏，能源生命线经过我南海；本土工业密集；无战略武器；美国至今仍占领日本，在日本驻军，受美国控制；等等，中国能快速致日本于死地，在台海一战中，我们还会迂腐到宋穰公的地步吗？能快速打败日本，能用最小代价打败日本，我们为什么还迎合日本想与我海空军决战的战略意图呢？所以，日本在2008年，如果明目张胆地支持台湾独立，并介入台海作战，我必须对日本进行毁灭性的打击，我们必须有此作战预案和决心手段。否则，就遏制不住日本抱着侥幸心理介入台海的野心！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
韩国，至少10年内不会是我们的朋友，对此，我们要有深刻的认识。韩国如果想与我为敌，其下场是十分悲惨的！弹丸小国，想趁大国暂时落魄时落井下石，就是大国的仇人，迟早要为自己的愚蠢付出惨重的代价。美国，不可能一辈子都能当韩国的爹，韩国，也不可能一辈子都躲在美国的裤裆中过日子。在台海局势中，韩国如果胆敢介入台海战争，我们就有决心再打一场抗美援朝战争。第二次抗美援朝战争，就不会象第一次抗美援朝战争那样的打法了，就不会打成消耗战，将是一场摧枯拉朽的战争。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国和台湾，利用2008年奥运会机会宣布独立，是对全球华人的挑战，是想扼杀全球华人爱国强国的伟大心愿，是想与全球炎黄子孙为敌，这会让全球华人同胞彻底看穿陈水扁之流的台独分子的卖国嘴脸，这意味着全球华人反台独统一战线的完全建立，所以，我收复台湾的任何手段，都必将得到全球华人的坚决支持！因为，陈水扁配合美国，想扼杀中国崛起进程，想扼杀中华民族伟大复兴，覆巢之下，安有完卵？没有强大的中国，海外华人的利益谁来保护？没有强大的中国，我14亿同胞的安全和利益谁来保护？所以，我们必须采取一切果敢的手段，也决不让美帝国主义和陈水扁台独分子的阴谋得逞！ 人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
对台湾，只要敢独立，我们先进行的是进行毁灭性的军事打击，先把台湾的军事力量全部摧毁，只有全部摧毁了，陈水扁才会绝望；只有全部摧毁了，才方便全面登陆台湾，掌控台湾；只有全部摧毁了，才方便我们驻军台湾，不留任何后患！只有全部摧毁了，才避免台海战争成为一场消耗战，才破灭美国想用台湾消耗我的战略意图。当然，如何摧毁台湾军事力量，则不是此文讨论之列，网友们可以就此问题进行讨论！
----常卓昊
[1249] (2007-02-21)
2008年，陈水扁会搞独立吗？2008年如果陈水扁搞独立，我们该怎么办？这是我们全球华人值得思考的重大战略问题。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
一、 2008年，美国会支持陈水扁宣布台湾独立！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
其实，陈水扁搞不搞独立，不是陈水扁自己能决定的，也不是台湾的几个台独分子所能决定的。陈水扁要想搞独立，首先依靠的是美国的支持。没有美国的支持，陈水扁就没有这个狗胆搞独立。关于这一点，我们都看得很清楚。大家对台湾是美国遏制中国的一张牌的观点，都有一致的认同。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
那么，美国会在2008年支持台湾独立吗？我觉得我们思考这个问题，需要我们从两个方面来考虑：一是美国是否具备协防台湾的能力，即是否具备与中国作战中获得全胜的能力。二是台湾在美国全球战略布局中的地位和作用如何，即为了伊朗，美国会不会舍弃台湾。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
（一）2008年，美国不具备协防台湾的军事能力。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国要协防台湾，而且要确保自己不付出太大的代价来协防台湾，是决定美国是否支持台湾独立的关键所在。我们不否认美国的战争能力，但是，美国会为了台湾，使自己与中国两败俱伤吗？会为了台湾，破坏美国的全球大战略吗？会为了台湾，使自己失去全球霸主地位吗？这是我们思考问题的关键所在。 人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
自前苏联瓦解后，中国就失去了牵制前苏联的战略作用，在某种程度上，中国已经成为美国的敌人。这一点，我们要有深刻的认识。之所以，美国不敢用军事手段攻打我们，是因为我们是一个核大国，是一个导弹大国，是一个国土面积很大的国家，是一个人口众多的国家，是因为美国一极比多强力量没有形成质的差距，是因为中国人不怕死，战斗意志坚决。这些都是美国之所以不敢轻易对我动武的重要原因。96年的台海危机，是美国对我台海战略的重大试探，即评估台湾独立的可行性。但我导弹的威胁，迫使美国放弃了支持台湾独立的战略企图。美国深刻认识到：没有导弹防御系统，拦截不了中国的导弹，避免不了与中国的相互核摧毁，美国就不敢轻易协防台湾。这就是美国的底线。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国的导弹防御系统，在某种程度上，是一个政治工具，即通过这种系统，将他国绑上自己的战车，为自己侵略战争服务；是一个心理战工具，即通过这种系统，可以欺骗本国和他国国民，认为自己安全而支持其侵略战争；是一个军备竞赛的工具，通过开发导弹防御系统，研制先进的立体感知、侦察、控制、打击装备，提高自己的军事打击能力。可以说，美国如果拦截不了我们的导弹，则意味着对台湾的协防就没有任何底气，这也是美国一直以来维持台湾不统不独现状的关键所在。那么，美国的导弹防御系统成功了没有？我只能说NO。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
为什么这么说呢？大家知道：2006年9月，朝鲜发射了几枚导弹，这几枚导弹，是在多次提前告知的情况下发射的，给美国和日本很长的预警时间和部署反导时间。而美国和日本却没有拦截，是美日不愿拦截吗？不可能，这是多好的威慑机会啊！美国会放弃这一个宣扬自己实力的大好机会吗？这说明什么？只能说明，美国和日本的导弹防御系统，至少目前没有任何拦截能力。更何况，拦截系统主要靠空间感知、侦察和通信系统，即靠雷达、卫星等平台，如果是核弹，即使拦截爆炸，势必摧毁这些雷达系统，如果事先对敌卫星进行摧毁，则导弹防御系统就是一堆废铁。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
所以，实事求是地说，美国2008年前，没有协防台湾的军事实力。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
（二）2008年，为了美国全球战略利益，美国会支持台湾独立！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国目前在全球的一切战略布局，都是为了其称霸世界服务的。美国要称霸世界，侵占中东，确保自己对石油的绝对控制权，是美国称霸世界的关键。所以，彻底侵占和控制伊拉克和伊朗，是美国未来几年的首要目标。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
目前，伊朗是中国和俄罗斯最主要的后台。如何以进攻，来干扰中国和俄罗斯的注意力和对伊朗的支持能力，是美国决策者思考问题的出发点。一是如何离间中国和俄罗斯的关系，避免中国和俄罗斯联手干预美国的入侵伊朗、控制中东战略。二是如何利用台湾问题、中日钓鱼岛问题、中印领土之争问题等问题，来牵制中国的军事力量和注意力。三是如何利用车臣问题、俄罗斯与独联体国家问题、俄罗斯与欧洲矛盾问题、俄罗斯与周边邻国矛盾、俄罗斯内部矛盾等，来牵制俄罗斯的军事力量和注意力。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
从这个意义上讲，2008年，台湾有宣布独立的可能。因为，台湾已经成为美国制约中国支持伊朗的最重要的棋子。为了增加这颗棋子的筹码，美国将日本、韩国拉入支持台湾独立的集团，以增加最大程度消耗中国实力的概率。所以，有网友撰文，认为美国欲以伊朗换台湾的可能性是存在的。因为，台湾只能暂时遏制中国，在协防台湾中，美国得不到任何好处，相反还因为与中国的战争，而两败俱伤，使自己丧失了称霸世界的机会。伊朗却不同，侵占伊朗，意味着美国霸占中东计划成功，美国可以利用石油，赚取大量利益，确保自身发展优势，同时可以控制欧洲和日本，使欧洲和日本死心塌地跟随自己，在逐一扼杀中国和俄罗斯，最终取得统一世界的战略目标。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
从最近陈水扁搞法理台独走出实质性步伐；从日本和台湾加强军事联系；从韩国冬运会制造“长白山事件”，挑拨中国和朝鲜关系等上来看，美国2008年，可能牺牲台湾，来消耗我实力的战略意图。联合日本和韩国，目的是增加最大限度消耗中国的概率。特别是韩国，先利用几个女运动员宣示“长白山”事件，然后在收容所制造火灾，制造中韩之间的仇恨气氛，然后传出要与台湾加强合作，对抗我的企图。这些事件都是精心策划的，给自己与台湾加强关系制造借口。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国支持陈水扁2008年搞台独，同时也会支持日本、印度、韩国与中国对抗。最大限度地牵制和消耗中国的实力。所以，美国对印度是有求必应，目的就是如此！极力拍摄《南京大屠杀》电影和解密731事件，等等，目的不是为了正义，而是为了挑起中日之间的仇恨，使中日之间一定要打起来，这样才会最大限度增加台湾独立成功的概率。很简单的道理，美国为什么过去不拍摄此电影，过去不解密731事件？现在却炒作中日历史事件，其动机和意图是阴险毒辣的。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
所以，总结地说，为了美国的中东计划的成功，在不具备协防台湾的能力下，2008年，美国也会支持台湾，通过台湾，来最大限度地消耗中国的实力，以确保自己能够控制中东，美国一旦控制中东，就牢牢占据巨大战略优势，最终从能源上扼杀中国，达到最终控制中国的战略目的。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
二、台湾独立，我们的对策和措施！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国支持台湾独立的算盘上，如果没有日本和韩国对台湾的支持，就起不到消耗中国的战略意图，让台湾独立无异于帮助中国统一。因为美国知道，凭台湾的那点军事力量，不足给大陆军事力量打个牙祭！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
所以，在某种程度上，2008年，美国支不支持台湾独立，陈水扁敢不敢独立，最重要的是看日本对台湾的支持程度如何，即日本有没有胆量和中国决一死战！这才是问题的关键。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
从中日的海空军力量对比来说，日本确实具备与中国海空军决一死战的意图和能力。但是日本担心的是无法拦截中国的导弹，特别是核弹。日本具有很多软肋，自身地形狭小，战略空间小；人口密集；资源匮乏，能源生命线经过我南海；本土工业密集；无战略武器；美国至今仍占领日本，在日本驻军，受美国控制；等等，中国能快速致日本于死地，在台海一战中，我们还会迂腐到宋穰公的地步吗？能快速打败日本，能用最小代价打败日本，我们为什么还迎合日本想与我海空军决战的战略意图呢？所以，日本在2008年，如果明目张胆地支持台湾独立，并介入台海作战，我必须对日本进行毁灭性的打击，我们必须有此作战预案和决心手段。否则，就遏制不住日本抱着侥幸心理介入台海的野心！人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
韩国，至少10年内不会是我们的朋友，对此，我们要有深刻的认识。韩国如果想与我为敌，其下场是十分悲惨的！弹丸小国，想趁大国暂时落魄时落井下石，就是大国的仇人，迟早要为自己的愚蠢付出惨重的代价。美国，不可能一辈子都能当韩国的爹，韩国，也不可能一辈子都躲在美国的裤裆中过日子。在台海局势中，韩国如果胆敢介入台海战争，我们就有决心再打一场抗美援朝战争。第二次抗美援朝战争，就不会象第一次抗美援朝战争那样的打法了，就不会打成消耗战，将是一场摧枯拉朽的战争。人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
美国和台湾，利用2008年奥运会机会宣布独立，是对全球华人的挑战，是想扼杀全球华人爱国强国的伟大心愿，是想与全球炎黄子孙为敌，这会让全球华人同胞彻底看穿陈水扁之流的台独分子的卖国嘴脸，这意味着全球华人反台独统一战线的完全建立，所以，我收复台湾的任何手段，都必将得到全球华人的坚决支持！因为，陈水扁配合美国，想扼杀中国崛起进程，想扼杀中华民族伟大复兴，覆巢之下，安有完卵？没有强大的中国，海外华人的利益谁来保护？没有强大的中国，我14亿同胞的安全和利益谁来保护？所以，我们必须采取一切果敢的手段，也决不让美帝国主义和陈水扁台独分子的阴谋得逞！ 人民网强国社区(http://bbs.people.com.cn)
对台湾，只要敢独立，我们先进行的是进行毁灭性的军事打击，先把台湾的军事力量全部摧毁，只有全部摧毁了，陈水扁才会绝望；只有全部摧毁了，才方便全面登陆台湾，掌控台湾；只有全部摧毁了，才方便我们驻军台湾，不留任何后患！只有全部摧毁了，才避免台海战争成为一场消耗战，才破灭美国想用台湾消耗我的战略意图。当然，如何摧毁台湾军事力量，则不是此文讨论之列，网友们可以就此问题进行讨论！
----常卓昊
Labels: Forum
CG Tech
Toptrader Upgrades CG Tech to Strong Strong Buy!
Target Price for 2007 S$1.39!
Target Price for 2008 S$2.50!
Buy / Add on Short Term Support.
some highlights derived from annual report
FY2005 against FY2006 in Chinese Yuan
turnover from yuan 464m to yuan 707m, up 52%
gross profit 117m to 185m, up 57%
gross profit margin from 25.3% to 26.2%
net proift for FY2006 yuan 83.593m to yuan 134.790m
net profit margin from 18.0% to 19.1%
cash increased from yuan 135m to yuan 272m
inventory increased from 20m to 31m
trade receivables 62m to 83m
trade payables 14m to 29m
short term loan 19m to 0, meaning no outsatnding short term loan
long term secured loan from 0 to 157m due mainly to purchase of assets
net cash generated from operation 86m to 146m
net cash for investing activities 39m to 127m due mainly to purchase fixed assets for a cash of 110m
total shares outstanding 260m shares
eps 0.3477 to 0.5184
eps calculation: eps for FY2006 = net profit yuan 134.79m / 260m shares = yuan 0.5184 per share = S$ 0.104 per share
NAV per share = net asset value per share 1.11 to 1.55
taxation - 2 Longyan subsidiaries to pay tax from 15% to 27% from 01 Jan 07 onwards since tax relief expired main raw material used by CG relates to crude oil, thus oil price fluctuation will have direct impact to her profit margin
dividend per share yuan 0.075 = S$0.015
bonus shares issue 50% of existing shares, 130m shares in total, you get 1000 shares as bonus, CNY hongbao, if you have 2000 existing shares
over 90% turnover derived from PRC
A commentary at the date of the announcement of the significant trends and competitive strength
following events would be significant to CG's operations in the next 12 months.
The Group has begun the construction of a new plant for the production of polyester short fibre (“PSF”). The Group expects the construction to be completed by the end of third quarter of 2007 and plans to commence production in the fourth quarter of 2007. Upon completion, the new factory will have an annual PSF
production capacity of approximately 10,000 tons. The estimated payback period is about 3-4 years, which is in line with the Group’s current investments. Currently, the Group is producing both upstream raw materials for PSF, PET chips and downstream PSF yarn products. End products’ (garments’) functions and features such as ‘breathability’, anti-odour, infrared protection, etc, are mainly derived from the chemical and physical treatment during the production of PET chips and fibre. Therefore, by integrating the current PET chip production with the production of PSF, the Group will be able to offer its current and potential customers better-differentiated products. Moreover, the Group currently has to source for PSF to use as raw materials in its yarn production. By manufacturing PSF in-house, the Group will be able to create higher value for its customers and retain higher margins for its shareholders. Lastly, it is in line with the Group’s overall strategy of cusing on manufacturing differentiated premium quality and functional products.
The Group has also begun the construction of a new plant for the production of compact combed yarn. The Group expects the construction to be completed by the end of 2007 and plans to commence production in th first quarter of 2008. Upon completion, the new factory will have an annual production capacity of approximately 7,000 tons for compact combed yarn. The establishment of a compact combed yarn production facility is a natural progression of the current combed yarn production facility, which has commenced production in May 2006. Our annual capacity for combed yarn is approximately 6,000 tonnes. From May to December 2006, the combed yarn products have contributed turnover and gross profit of RMB101.3 million and RMB27.6 million respectively, representing 14% and 15% respectively of our Group’s turnover and gross profit for the year ended 31 December 2006. Our Directors believe that the rising affluence of the PRC population will spur demand for high quality textile products, which will increase the demand for raw materials required for the production of these products.Combed yarn and compact combed yarn are examples of such raw materials, capable of producing textiles of finer qualities. Combed yarn and compact combed yarn are strong, fine and smooth yarn which are used to produce high quality textiles which are mainly used in garments of finer quality. Based on our industry knowledge, the domestic supply of compact combed yarn products is insufficient to meet domestic demand, as manufacturing of compact combed yarn products requires special technical knowledge. The successful commencement of production for combed yarn products has equipped the Group with the necessary technical know-how to enter into the production of compact combed yarn products.The expansion of the production facilities for compact combed yarn products with higher margin than our
existing combed yarn products is part of our Group’s growth strategy of focusing on higher margin differentiated functional products with strong cash flows that are able to continuously enhance the overall profitability of the Group and shareholder returns. - 7777777 appreciates the attitude of the management of CG Tech.
below is a quote from my blog posted on 01 Dec 06,
http://www.toptrader.blogspot.com/
Quote:
New product PSF
revenue = Yuan 18000/ton X capacity 10000 tons = yuan 180m =S$36m
GPM 30%, GP=36mX30%=S$10.8m
to start production 3Q2007
New product CCY (compact combed yarn)
revenue = yuan 31000/ton X capacity 7000 tons=yuan 217m=S$43.4m
GPM 32%, GP=S$43.4X32%=S$13.888m
to start production 4Q2007
Total GP for new products to be added=10.8+13.888=S$24.688m
total shares outstanding = 260m, eps for 2008 for newly added products portion only = (24.688X70%)/260 = S$0.066 for FY08,
eps FY06 0.108 tg 0.54-1.08 if pe=5-10
eps FY07 0.129 tg 0.645-1.29 if pe=5-10
eps FY08 0.222 tg 1.11-2.22 if pe=5-10
below is my revised estimates after a careful review,
New product PSF
revenue = Yuan 18000/ton X capacity 10000 tons = yuan 180m =S$36m
GPM 30%, GP=36mX30%=S$10.8m
to start production 4Q2007 (delayed 1 quater, see above)
New product compact combed yarn
revenue = yuan 31000/ton X capacity 7000 tons=yuan 217m=S$43.4m
GPM 32%, GP=S$43.4X32%=S$13.888m
to start production 1Q2008 (delayed 1 quarter, see above)
Total GP for new products to be added=10.8+13.888=S$24.688m
total shares outstanding = 260m
eps for 2008 for newly added products portion only = (24.688X70%)/260 = S$0.066 for FY08,
eps FY06 = 0.104 tg 0.52-1.04 if pe=5-10
eps FY07 = 0.104X1.333 = 0.139 tg 0.695-1.39 if pe=5-10 (note CG trading near lower band of the tg scope)
eps FY08 = 0.139X1.333+0.066 = 0.250 tg 1.25-2.50 if pe=5-10
Therefore, I upgrade CG Tech to strong strong buy.
CG Tech target price for 2007 is 1.39, implying an upside of 78% from current price of .78.
CG Tech target price for 2008 is 2.50.
Huat Arrh...
Toptrader Upgrades CG Tech to Strong Strong Buy!
Target Price for 2007 S$1.39!
Target Price for 2008 S$2.50!
Buy / Add on Short Term Support.
some highlights derived from annual report
FY2005 against FY2006 in Chinese Yuan
turnover from yuan 464m to yuan 707m, up 52%
gross profit 117m to 185m, up 57%
gross profit margin from 25.3% to 26.2%
net proift for FY2006 yuan 83.593m to yuan 134.790m
net profit margin from 18.0% to 19.1%
cash increased from yuan 135m to yuan 272m
inventory increased from 20m to 31m
trade receivables 62m to 83m
trade payables 14m to 29m
short term loan 19m to 0, meaning no outsatnding short term loan
long term secured loan from 0 to 157m due mainly to purchase of assets
net cash generated from operation 86m to 146m
net cash for investing activities 39m to 127m due mainly to purchase fixed assets for a cash of 110m
total shares outstanding 260m shares
eps 0.3477 to 0.5184
eps calculation: eps for FY2006 = net profit yuan 134.79m / 260m shares = yuan 0.5184 per share = S$ 0.104 per share
NAV per share = net asset value per share 1.11 to 1.55
taxation - 2 Longyan subsidiaries to pay tax from 15% to 27% from 01 Jan 07 onwards since tax relief expired main raw material used by CG relates to crude oil, thus oil price fluctuation will have direct impact to her profit margin
dividend per share yuan 0.075 = S$0.015
bonus shares issue 50% of existing shares, 130m shares in total, you get 1000 shares as bonus, CNY hongbao, if you have 2000 existing shares
over 90% turnover derived from PRC
A commentary at the date of the announcement of the significant trends and competitive strength
following events would be significant to CG's operations in the next 12 months.
The Group has begun the construction of a new plant for the production of polyester short fibre (“PSF”). The Group expects the construction to be completed by the end of third quarter of 2007 and plans to commence production in the fourth quarter of 2007. Upon completion, the new factory will have an annual PSF
production capacity of approximately 10,000 tons. The estimated payback period is about 3-4 years, which is in line with the Group’s current investments. Currently, the Group is producing both upstream raw materials for PSF, PET chips and downstream PSF yarn products. End products’ (garments’) functions and features such as ‘breathability’, anti-odour, infrared protection, etc, are mainly derived from the chemical and physical treatment during the production of PET chips and fibre. Therefore, by integrating the current PET chip production with the production of PSF, the Group will be able to offer its current and potential customers better-differentiated products. Moreover, the Group currently has to source for PSF to use as raw materials in its yarn production. By manufacturing PSF in-house, the Group will be able to create higher value for its customers and retain higher margins for its shareholders. Lastly, it is in line with the Group’s overall strategy of cusing on manufacturing differentiated premium quality and functional products.
The Group has also begun the construction of a new plant for the production of compact combed yarn. The Group expects the construction to be completed by the end of 2007 and plans to commence production in th first quarter of 2008. Upon completion, the new factory will have an annual production capacity of approximately 7,000 tons for compact combed yarn. The establishment of a compact combed yarn production facility is a natural progression of the current combed yarn production facility, which has commenced production in May 2006. Our annual capacity for combed yarn is approximately 6,000 tonnes. From May to December 2006, the combed yarn products have contributed turnover and gross profit of RMB101.3 million and RMB27.6 million respectively, representing 14% and 15% respectively of our Group’s turnover and gross profit for the year ended 31 December 2006. Our Directors believe that the rising affluence of the PRC population will spur demand for high quality textile products, which will increase the demand for raw materials required for the production of these products.Combed yarn and compact combed yarn are examples of such raw materials, capable of producing textiles of finer qualities. Combed yarn and compact combed yarn are strong, fine and smooth yarn which are used to produce high quality textiles which are mainly used in garments of finer quality. Based on our industry knowledge, the domestic supply of compact combed yarn products is insufficient to meet domestic demand, as manufacturing of compact combed yarn products requires special technical knowledge. The successful commencement of production for combed yarn products has equipped the Group with the necessary technical know-how to enter into the production of compact combed yarn products.The expansion of the production facilities for compact combed yarn products with higher margin than our
existing combed yarn products is part of our Group’s growth strategy of focusing on higher margin differentiated functional products with strong cash flows that are able to continuously enhance the overall profitability of the Group and shareholder returns. - 7777777 appreciates the attitude of the management of CG Tech.
below is a quote from my blog posted on 01 Dec 06,
http://www.toptrader.blogspot.com/
Quote:
New product PSF
revenue = Yuan 18000/ton X capacity 10000 tons = yuan 180m =S$36m
GPM 30%, GP=36mX30%=S$10.8m
to start production 3Q2007
New product CCY (compact combed yarn)
revenue = yuan 31000/ton X capacity 7000 tons=yuan 217m=S$43.4m
GPM 32%, GP=S$43.4X32%=S$13.888m
to start production 4Q2007
Total GP for new products to be added=10.8+13.888=S$24.688m
total shares outstanding = 260m, eps for 2008 for newly added products portion only = (24.688X70%)/260 = S$0.066 for FY08,
eps FY06 0.108 tg 0.54-1.08 if pe=5-10
eps FY07 0.129 tg 0.645-1.29 if pe=5-10
eps FY08 0.222 tg 1.11-2.22 if pe=5-10
below is my revised estimates after a careful review,
New product PSF
revenue = Yuan 18000/ton X capacity 10000 tons = yuan 180m =S$36m
GPM 30%, GP=36mX30%=S$10.8m
to start production 4Q2007 (delayed 1 quater, see above)
New product compact combed yarn
revenue = yuan 31000/ton X capacity 7000 tons=yuan 217m=S$43.4m
GPM 32%, GP=S$43.4X32%=S$13.888m
to start production 1Q2008 (delayed 1 quarter, see above)
Total GP for new products to be added=10.8+13.888=S$24.688m
total shares outstanding = 260m
eps for 2008 for newly added products portion only = (24.688X70%)/260 = S$0.066 for FY08,
eps FY06 = 0.104 tg 0.52-1.04 if pe=5-10
eps FY07 = 0.104X1.333 = 0.139 tg 0.695-1.39 if pe=5-10 (note CG trading near lower band of the tg scope)
eps FY08 = 0.139X1.333+0.066 = 0.250 tg 1.25-2.50 if pe=5-10
Therefore, I upgrade CG Tech to strong strong buy.
CG Tech target price for 2007 is 1.39, implying an upside of 78% from current price of .78.
CG Tech target price for 2008 is 2.50.
Huat Arrh...
Labels: Individual Stocks
Live Trading Records for Week 19 Feb 07 to 23 Feb 07
Live Trading Records for 21 Feb 07, Wed
Sunshine cut remaining holdings .35 (bot .375)
Orchard Parade sold 1.19 (bot 1.12)
Mapletree sold 1.32 (bot 1.2800) (queued 1.29). daily macd divergent with price.
Banyan sold 1.69 (bot 1.66), daily macd divergent with price, trix divergent with price.
SinoTech sold 1.42 (bot 1.41), daily evening star still valid, dropped below short term support, daily macd sell signal.
ST Engg sold 3.36 (bot 3.34), weekly evening star still valid.
Wilmar sold 2.54 (bot 2.51), PE too high.
Tuan Sing sold .285 (bot .26), daily chart macd and trix sell signals, weekly chart single week reversal signal based on definition of Mr Jesse Livermore.
Stamford Land sold .425 (bot .424), weekly cloud cover confirmed by weekly volumes.
AdvSCT cut .700 (bot .738), below short term support, daily macd and trix sell signals, weekly macd and trix sell signals. storng support .68.
Luzhou cut .745 (bot .800), below short term support, below intermediate term support, below long term support.
Sun East sold .355 (changed from sell queue .36 to .355) (bot .34 on 16 Feb 07), weekly chart bearish single week reversal, daily chart bearish single day reversal. daily chart evening star, macd sell signal. FA: too much / abnormal receivables - refer a thread related to Sun East - Sun East seems never get paid - cause of concern.
Live Trading Records for 22 Feb 07, Thu
RafflesMG buy 1.17 filled on short term support.
RafflesEdu buy 2.20 filled on short term support.
Tanchong = TCIL buy 1.91 filled near short term support.
MMI bot 1.50, daily chart volumes increasing after contracting during correction, correction seems likely over.
Live Trading Records for 23 Feb 07, Fri
OCBC sell 8.90 filled (bot 7.80), daily chart bearish single day reversal, short term correction likely started.
Food Empire cut .905 (bot .93), sth is seriously wrong!
SMB United bot .265, breakout of short term double bottom correcting formation. min tg .285 / .305.
Live Trading Records for 21 Feb 07, Wed
Sunshine cut remaining holdings .35 (bot .375)
Orchard Parade sold 1.19 (bot 1.12)
Mapletree sold 1.32 (bot 1.2800) (queued 1.29). daily macd divergent with price.
Banyan sold 1.69 (bot 1.66), daily macd divergent with price, trix divergent with price.
SinoTech sold 1.42 (bot 1.41), daily evening star still valid, dropped below short term support, daily macd sell signal.
ST Engg sold 3.36 (bot 3.34), weekly evening star still valid.
Wilmar sold 2.54 (bot 2.51), PE too high.
Tuan Sing sold .285 (bot .26), daily chart macd and trix sell signals, weekly chart single week reversal signal based on definition of Mr Jesse Livermore.
Stamford Land sold .425 (bot .424), weekly cloud cover confirmed by weekly volumes.
AdvSCT cut .700 (bot .738), below short term support, daily macd and trix sell signals, weekly macd and trix sell signals. storng support .68.
Luzhou cut .745 (bot .800), below short term support, below intermediate term support, below long term support.
Sun East sold .355 (changed from sell queue .36 to .355) (bot .34 on 16 Feb 07), weekly chart bearish single week reversal, daily chart bearish single day reversal. daily chart evening star, macd sell signal. FA: too much / abnormal receivables - refer a thread related to Sun East - Sun East seems never get paid - cause of concern.
Live Trading Records for 22 Feb 07, Thu
RafflesMG buy 1.17 filled on short term support.
RafflesEdu buy 2.20 filled on short term support.
Tanchong = TCIL buy 1.91 filled near short term support.
MMI bot 1.50, daily chart volumes increasing after contracting during correction, correction seems likely over.
Live Trading Records for 23 Feb 07, Fri
OCBC sell 8.90 filled (bot 7.80), daily chart bearish single day reversal, short term correction likely started.
Food Empire cut .905 (bot .93), sth is seriously wrong!
SMB United bot .265, breakout of short term double bottom correcting formation. min tg .285 / .305.
Labels: Live Trading Records
22 February 2007
Hi! Stock Lobang,
Thanks for the two books sent to me and for your guidance of openning them.
I spent a whole day to complete reading from cover to cover of the book - Trade Like Jesse Livermore. I learned something from Jesse Livermore said to be the greatest trader in the world.
Summary of the thoughts of Jesse Livermore
trend - buy only in an uptrend, short only in a down trend, which is the same as my rule in general.
one day reversal - very useful, finally I got a complete understanding of this important TA skill, though I learned from other books but did not understand fully. I used it to analyse a few stocks and found this concept very useful and important. I guess this concept can be extended to cover one week reversal and one month reversal, too.
probe buys - buy 20%, add 20%, add 20%, add final 40%.
buy new high
mandatory cut loss level - 10%, I lost big in Longcheer, China Life due to allowing loss to exceed 10%
buy at Pivotal point confirmed by heavy volume
buy at continuation pivotal point confirmed by heavy volume
buy at major pivotal point confirmed by heavy volume
buy only strongest market leaders in an industry group
never average down - I averaged down for both Longcheer and China Life despite initial paper losses
Give no tips - I'll learn to do that
Take no tips - I'll learn to do that, part of reason losing big in
Longcheer due to stubborn bullish view of DBSV
Play a lone hand - be secretive and silent in stock trading - I have to learn to do that
Never buy a stock on reactions (corrections - 7777777) and never short a stock on rallies - I buy most stocks on reactions, ie, buy at short term support during correction, which does not comply with Jesse, need to review.
Patience, patience, patience - wait for all factors in favor of you appear before committing trading capital. for me (7777777 = Toptrader), I need to wait for all the basic conditions set in my trading system to be mature before buying. but emphasize safety of trading capital as for selling, ie, sell once bearish signal appears, no need to wait for a lot of bearish sell signals to appear - that will be too late and cost me money.
Money management
story: Jesse Livermore suicided by shooting himself at last, a sad end...
Thanks for the two books sent to me and for your guidance of openning them.
I spent a whole day to complete reading from cover to cover of the book - Trade Like Jesse Livermore. I learned something from Jesse Livermore said to be the greatest trader in the world.
Summary of the thoughts of Jesse Livermore
trend - buy only in an uptrend, short only in a down trend, which is the same as my rule in general.
one day reversal - very useful, finally I got a complete understanding of this important TA skill, though I learned from other books but did not understand fully. I used it to analyse a few stocks and found this concept very useful and important. I guess this concept can be extended to cover one week reversal and one month reversal, too.
probe buys - buy 20%, add 20%, add 20%, add final 40%.
buy new high
mandatory cut loss level - 10%, I lost big in Longcheer, China Life due to allowing loss to exceed 10%
buy at Pivotal point confirmed by heavy volume
buy at continuation pivotal point confirmed by heavy volume
buy at major pivotal point confirmed by heavy volume
buy only strongest market leaders in an industry group
never average down - I averaged down for both Longcheer and China Life despite initial paper losses
Give no tips - I'll learn to do that
Take no tips - I'll learn to do that, part of reason losing big in
Longcheer due to stubborn bullish view of DBSV
Play a lone hand - be secretive and silent in stock trading - I have to learn to do that
Never buy a stock on reactions (corrections - 7777777) and never short a stock on rallies - I buy most stocks on reactions, ie, buy at short term support during correction, which does not comply with Jesse, need to review.
Patience, patience, patience - wait for all factors in favor of you appear before committing trading capital. for me (7777777 = Toptrader), I need to wait for all the basic conditions set in my trading system to be mature before buying. but emphasize safety of trading capital as for selling, ie, sell once bearish signal appears, no need to wait for a lot of bearish sell signals to appear - that will be too late and cost me money.
Money management
story: Jesse Livermore suicided by shooting himself at last, a sad end...
Labels: Stock Trading System
Historical Teachings
人类历史上的两次大崩盘 - 跳楼的绝不仅是股价.
在当今的时代，随着资本经济的发展，股市深深地影响着我们的生活，它不再单单是一种企业融资的行为，更是无数股民体验人生的所在。当股市牛劲十足，疯狂飙升时，股民喜笑颜开；当股市像一头病熊，全线跌停时，股民心急如焚。当今天的股民沉浸于投资获利带来的幸福时，也应看到硬币的另外一面，那些股市曾经有过的重大灾难，那些黑色的记忆……
1929：“黑色星期二”
1929年10月29日，星期二，对于美国的经济以及股民来说，都是最黑暗的一天。上午10点，纽约证券交易所刚一开市，猛烈的抛单就席卷而来，“抛！抛！抛！”所有股票成了烫手的山芋，不计价格、不计成本，只要抛掉就好，经纪人被“抛”得发晕、交易大厅一片混乱，随之而来的就是道?琼斯指数一泻千里，股指从最高点386点跌至298点，跌幅达22%。这是纽约交易所112年历史上“最糟糕的一天”，以这个被称作“黑色星期二”的日子为发端，美国乃至全球进入了长达10年的经济大萧条时期。 全民炒股催生股市崩盘 对于这个黑色的梦魇，所有人都陷入恐慌和怨天尤人之中，但他们没有想到，这个日子的降临恰恰是他们自己催生的。这一切都要从美国经济大发展说起。 对于美国来说，第一次世界大战是个千载难逢的黄金机会，美国利用战争大发横财，战争结束后，美国由债务国一跃成为世界最大的债权国，纽约也取代伦敦成为世界金融中心。美国经济的突飞猛进，带来的是股市一派牛气，对于股民来说，一个黄金时代来到了。 为了吸引更多的游资，美国的券商雇佣大批股票推销员，在城市的街道，在乡镇的小路，在千家万户的门前，一遍遍向民众讲述炒股的好处，但他们却从不提及炒股的风险。民众的热情被激发起来，入市炒股成为全民的投机行为。 到1928年，股市几近疯狂。在地铁中，人们纷纷指责地铁公司没有在车厢里装上电传打字电报机，以致人们在乘车途中无法炒股。在波士顿的一家工厂，所有的车间都安放有大黑板，并有专人每隔一小时就用粉笔写上交易所的最新行情。在得克萨斯州的大牧场上，牛仔们通过高音喇叭收听电台的消息，实时了解行情。当乘客乘坐出租车时，司机会和乘客热情地讨论股票行情，就连宾馆门口擦皮鞋的小童也会向顾客介绍当天的热门股。 大多数股民都是炒短线，并非为了长期投资。在疯狂的投机热潮刺激下，纽约股市一涨再涨。所有投身其中的人们都未曾想到，泡沫终究有破灭的一天。当时股市的行情远远超出了经济发展的实际情况，而且很多炒股者都是以股票作为抵押，进行信用交易，一旦投机人信心下降，就必然要增加更多的保证金，而缺乏资金的投机者就只能抛售更多的股票来弥补，其结果就是股价进一步下跌。 1929年9、10月间，投机者的信心开始下降，股市崩盘开始于10月24日星期四的抛售狂潮，到10月29日，股市彻底崩溃。当天美国钢铁公司的65万股股票以每股179美元出售，却找不到一个买主，于是其股价开始下跌，就像传染病一样，紧接着一个接一个公司的股票都开始下跌，大崩盘终于来临。股票成为废纸，数字全无意义，一个煤炭公司的老板看着正在下跌的指示板，倒地死在了他经纪人的办公室里。无数昔日的“百万富翁”一觉醒来便一贫如洗。一些开船出海游玩的富人们回来后发现，他们已变成了身无分文的贫民。当时跳楼的绝不仅仅是股价。 股市的崩溃不仅使投机者一贫如洗，随之而来的是银行业的破产，美国经济瘫痪，西方经济的大萧条。股灾彻底打击了投资者信心，一直到1954年，美国股市才再次达到1929年的水平，股灾带来的黑色梦魇不堪回首。
1987：“华尔街历史上最坏的日子”
1987年10月19日，星期一，又是一个十月，又是一段美国股民的黑色记忆。这一天美国股市又一次大崩盘，道-琼斯指数一天之内便重挫508.32点，装了特殊程序的计算机不停地在卖，任何试图使其稳定下来的努力都失败了。仅仅一天时间，美国的股票市场就大幅度缩水，其价值超过五千亿美元。这是一个“黑色星期一”，一个“华尔街历史上最坏的日子”。受美国股市崩盘的影响，伦敦、法兰克福、东京、悉尼、香港、新加坡等地股市也开始狂跌，“1929年的股灾又来了吗？”巨大的恐慌在投机者心中蔓延，昔日的情景再次重现，很多人由百万富翁沦为赤贫，精神崩溃、自杀的消息不绝于耳。 与1929年全民大炒股不同，这次危机，没有全民性的疯狂投入，但在危机爆发前，却同样是大量的热钱涌入。20世纪70到80年代，美国经济进入快速发展时期。从1982年开始，股指便一直上扬，到1987年，股市一派繁荣景象，这种繁荣吸引了大量游资，这些游资逐利而来，在股市上疯狂抬高股价，一个虚假的大泡沫又开始制造起来。与1929年一样，过度的炒作造成的泡沫必然会破裂。 这一天终于在10月19日降临了。当天纽约股票交易所内阴云密布，一片紧张气氛。各种股票价格纷纷疯狂下跌，当时价格变动是如此之快，使得联系交流的电话机都不够用了，电脑屏幕上显示的速度跟不上市场实际变化，《纽约时报》惊呼“一切都失去了控制”。就在这一天，当时世界头号首富萨姆?沃尔顿就损失了21亿美元，丢掉了第一的宝座。更悲惨的是那些将自己一生积蓄投入股市的普通民众，他们本来期望借着股市的牛气，赚一些养老的钱，结果一天功夫便在跌落的股价之中消失得无影无踪。 比1929年幸运的是，当时美国经济确实保持着比较高速的增长，股灾爆发只是对于投机炒作的一种调整，并没有导致整体的经济危机。事实上在股价狂跌不久，一些效益好的公司开始回购其股票，股价在一定程度上得以稳定。但其打击却仍然巨大，随之而来的是美国经济的一段长时间的停滞。
人类历史上的两次大崩盘 - 跳楼的绝不仅是股价.
在当今的时代，随着资本经济的发展，股市深深地影响着我们的生活，它不再单单是一种企业融资的行为，更是无数股民体验人生的所在。当股市牛劲十足，疯狂飙升时，股民喜笑颜开；当股市像一头病熊，全线跌停时，股民心急如焚。当今天的股民沉浸于投资获利带来的幸福时，也应看到硬币的另外一面，那些股市曾经有过的重大灾难，那些黑色的记忆……
1929：“黑色星期二”
1929年10月29日，星期二，对于美国的经济以及股民来说，都是最黑暗的一天。上午10点，纽约证券交易所刚一开市，猛烈的抛单就席卷而来，“抛！抛！抛！”所有股票成了烫手的山芋，不计价格、不计成本，只要抛掉就好，经纪人被“抛”得发晕、交易大厅一片混乱，随之而来的就是道?琼斯指数一泻千里，股指从最高点386点跌至298点，跌幅达22%。这是纽约交易所112年历史上“最糟糕的一天”，以这个被称作“黑色星期二”的日子为发端，美国乃至全球进入了长达10年的经济大萧条时期。 全民炒股催生股市崩盘 对于这个黑色的梦魇，所有人都陷入恐慌和怨天尤人之中，但他们没有想到，这个日子的降临恰恰是他们自己催生的。这一切都要从美国经济大发展说起。 对于美国来说，第一次世界大战是个千载难逢的黄金机会，美国利用战争大发横财，战争结束后，美国由债务国一跃成为世界最大的债权国，纽约也取代伦敦成为世界金融中心。美国经济的突飞猛进，带来的是股市一派牛气，对于股民来说，一个黄金时代来到了。 为了吸引更多的游资，美国的券商雇佣大批股票推销员，在城市的街道，在乡镇的小路，在千家万户的门前，一遍遍向民众讲述炒股的好处，但他们却从不提及炒股的风险。民众的热情被激发起来，入市炒股成为全民的投机行为。 到1928年，股市几近疯狂。在地铁中，人们纷纷指责地铁公司没有在车厢里装上电传打字电报机，以致人们在乘车途中无法炒股。在波士顿的一家工厂，所有的车间都安放有大黑板，并有专人每隔一小时就用粉笔写上交易所的最新行情。在得克萨斯州的大牧场上，牛仔们通过高音喇叭收听电台的消息，实时了解行情。当乘客乘坐出租车时，司机会和乘客热情地讨论股票行情，就连宾馆门口擦皮鞋的小童也会向顾客介绍当天的热门股。 大多数股民都是炒短线，并非为了长期投资。在疯狂的投机热潮刺激下，纽约股市一涨再涨。所有投身其中的人们都未曾想到，泡沫终究有破灭的一天。当时股市的行情远远超出了经济发展的实际情况，而且很多炒股者都是以股票作为抵押，进行信用交易，一旦投机人信心下降，就必然要增加更多的保证金，而缺乏资金的投机者就只能抛售更多的股票来弥补，其结果就是股价进一步下跌。 1929年9、10月间，投机者的信心开始下降，股市崩盘开始于10月24日星期四的抛售狂潮，到10月29日，股市彻底崩溃。当天美国钢铁公司的65万股股票以每股179美元出售，却找不到一个买主，于是其股价开始下跌，就像传染病一样，紧接着一个接一个公司的股票都开始下跌，大崩盘终于来临。股票成为废纸，数字全无意义，一个煤炭公司的老板看着正在下跌的指示板，倒地死在了他经纪人的办公室里。无数昔日的“百万富翁”一觉醒来便一贫如洗。一些开船出海游玩的富人们回来后发现，他们已变成了身无分文的贫民。当时跳楼的绝不仅仅是股价。 股市的崩溃不仅使投机者一贫如洗，随之而来的是银行业的破产，美国经济瘫痪，西方经济的大萧条。股灾彻底打击了投资者信心，一直到1954年，美国股市才再次达到1929年的水平，股灾带来的黑色梦魇不堪回首。
1987：“华尔街历史上最坏的日子”
1987年10月19日，星期一，又是一个十月，又是一段美国股民的黑色记忆。这一天美国股市又一次大崩盘，道-琼斯指数一天之内便重挫508.32点，装了特殊程序的计算机不停地在卖，任何试图使其稳定下来的努力都失败了。仅仅一天时间，美国的股票市场就大幅度缩水，其价值超过五千亿美元。这是一个“黑色星期一”，一个“华尔街历史上最坏的日子”。受美国股市崩盘的影响，伦敦、法兰克福、东京、悉尼、香港、新加坡等地股市也开始狂跌，“1929年的股灾又来了吗？”巨大的恐慌在投机者心中蔓延，昔日的情景再次重现，很多人由百万富翁沦为赤贫，精神崩溃、自杀的消息不绝于耳。 与1929年全民大炒股不同，这次危机，没有全民性的疯狂投入，但在危机爆发前，却同样是大量的热钱涌入。20世纪70到80年代，美国经济进入快速发展时期。从1982年开始，股指便一直上扬，到1987年，股市一派繁荣景象，这种繁荣吸引了大量游资，这些游资逐利而来，在股市上疯狂抬高股价，一个虚假的大泡沫又开始制造起来。与1929年一样，过度的炒作造成的泡沫必然会破裂。 这一天终于在10月19日降临了。当天纽约股票交易所内阴云密布，一片紧张气氛。各种股票价格纷纷疯狂下跌，当时价格变动是如此之快，使得联系交流的电话机都不够用了，电脑屏幕上显示的速度跟不上市场实际变化，《纽约时报》惊呼“一切都失去了控制”。就在这一天，当时世界头号首富萨姆?沃尔顿就损失了21亿美元，丢掉了第一的宝座。更悲惨的是那些将自己一生积蓄投入股市的普通民众，他们本来期望借着股市的牛气，赚一些养老的钱，结果一天功夫便在跌落的股价之中消失得无影无踪。 比1929年幸运的是，当时美国经济确实保持着比较高速的增长，股灾爆发只是对于投机炒作的一种调整，并没有导致整体的经济危机。事实上在股价狂跌不久，一些效益好的公司开始回购其股票，股价在一定程度上得以稳定。但其打击却仍然巨大，随之而来的是美国经济的一段长时间的停滞。
Labels: Historical Teachings
17 February 2007
TA Essence in my trading system
trend - most important, intermediate and long term trends measured by using simple multiple moving avearges must be up, there are about 200 counters only in SGX passed this filter, watchlists are constructed based on this filter.
price pattern - secondarily important, the nicer the better, the bigger the better, based on classical TA theory.
volume - must match with price actions based on classical price volume relationship theory.
gap theory - breakaway gap and exhaust gap most important, linking with price pattern and volume
Japanese candlestick theory
Elliott wave theory
classical technical indicators - MACD and TRIX
trading capital risk management system - not TA but based on TA
I'll write a TA book based on this trading system after making $100m.
trend - most important, intermediate and long term trends measured by using simple multiple moving avearges must be up, there are about 200 counters only in SGX passed this filter, watchlists are constructed based on this filter.
price pattern - secondarily important, the nicer the better, the bigger the better, based on classical TA theory.
volume - must match with price actions based on classical price volume relationship theory.
gap theory - breakaway gap and exhaust gap most important, linking with price pattern and volume
Japanese candlestick theory
Elliott wave theory
classical technical indicators - MACD and TRIX
trading capital risk management system - not TA but based on TA
I'll write a TA book based on this trading system after making $100m.
Labels: Stock Trading System
Live Trading Records for Week 12 Feb 07 to 16 Feb 07
visit
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=27825&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=1360
for live trading update by Toptrader
Live Trading Records for 12 Feb 07, Mon
RafflesMG sold 1.20 (bot 1.10 again last Fri).
Labroy Marine added 1.90 on short term support
Luzhou added .78, weekly volume evident strong accumulation in progress by manipulator, similar to that of KS Tech before its strong gain.
China Sky bot 1.33 on short term support, weekly volume evident strong accumulation in progress by manipulator, breakout of an intermediate double bottom correcting formation.
Mapletree Trust bot 1.28 on short term support, breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a strong volume last Fri.
Wilmar added 2.50 on short term support. breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume sessions ago.
Courage Marine bot .205 on short term support, breakout of a huge symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart confirmed by a huge volume.
Suntec Reit added 1.88 on short term support level, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume last Fri.
Live Trading Records for 13 Feb 07, Tue
Beauty China sold 1.02 (bot .937), daily chart evening star triggered short term correction which had driven price to short term support and rebounded off from it yesterday.
HK Land sold 4.40 (bot 4.33), daily chart macd and trix sell signals, sell for prudence.
Pac Andes cut .915 (bot .934), daily chart macd and trix sell signals plus double top correcting formation breakdown, sell for prudence.
China Energy sold 1.38 (bot 1.342 on average), breakdown of uptrend line support, breakdown of short term support at 1.38. but there is no evident bearish signals yet, exited for prudence only.
SP Land sold 9.25 (bot 8.681), daily chart long bearish candle. to buy back at short term support.
Sunshine cut .345 (bot .375) partially filled, breakdown of short term uptrend line support for a few days and could not climb back above it, both macd and trix dropped below 0 lines.
SMB cut .255 (bot .265), below short term support at .255.
StraitsAsia cut .74 at short term resistance (bot .755 sessions ago), below short term support.
Live Trading Records for 14 Feb 07, Wed
Midas cut 1.48 (bot 1.516), below short term support, but still supported by a short term uptrend line.
SGX cut 6.75 (bot 7.00), daily chart below short term support, both macd and trix sell signals out, weekly chart evening star (to be confirmed).
Sino Tech sold 1.48 11:44am (alert not received from iocbc) (bot at around 1.33 on average), daily chart evening star, short term correction likely to continue until touching short term support (based on market average cost) - buy back level.
MACQUARIE MEAG cut 1.20 (bot 1.21), below short term support 1.20. corrected 2 months so far, volumes heavy, 120m shares in total, distribution could be ongoing.
Live Trading Records for 15 Feb 07, Thu
Datacraft cut 1.17 (bot 1.28 cum div US$0.055 per share), below intermediate term support.
Sino Tech bot 1.41 on short term support.
Suntec sold 1.94 (bot 1.853), daily chart cloud cover. after selloff, it rose to 1.96 on par with record high, and both macd and trix buy signals out on the daily chart, thus cloud cover may have been neutralized, have to buy back at short term support (at 1.88 now).
SuperCoffee sold .995 (bot .97), weekly chart shooting star with huge volume, daily chart evening star to be confirmed. lost patience in the manipulator of this counter.
Allgreen cut 1.68 ( bot 1.70), below short term support, both macd and trix sell signals out on the daily chart. corrected 4 weeks but volumes did not contract much - cause of concern: distribution could be ongoing.
CHT sold .85 (bot .74), daily chart cloud cover, resulting in a short term correction, dropped to near short term support at .82 and rebounding off from it today, low .825, take profit by taking advantage of this oppportunity during short term rebound. expect correction to continue.
Hengxin cut .565 (bot .65), lost a whopping 13.1%! terrible! keep on dropping every day. fed up already!Finally, I decided to write it off. need serious reflection. dropped below uptrend line support, short term trend is down.
Sun Power sold .345 (bot .26 on 8 sessions ago), profit 30.7%. , profit taking looks strong, volume 33.5m against yesterday's 79m. hard cash is better than paper profit. expect short term correction to continue since common sense is telling me that it is unsustainable sitting on such a huge paper profit within a very short period. to enter again when appropriate.
Pine sold .68, majority filled (bot .64 on average), daily chart cloud cover.
MMI sold 1.48 (bot 1.20), daily chart evening star leading to current short term correction which will continue, to buy back when reaching short term support currently at around 1.40.
Live Trading Records for 16 Feb 07, Fri
Chip Eng Seng cut .39 filled (bot .40), below short term support.
Sun East bot .34 on short term support.
Tech Oil cut .835 filled (bot .84), below short term support, daily chart head and shoulders formation (SHS). high .84 so far today - just mentioned rebound tg .84 / .855.
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Live Trading Records for 12 Feb 07, Mon
RafflesMG sold 1.20 (bot 1.10 again last Fri).
Labroy Marine added 1.90 on short term support
Luzhou added .78, weekly volume evident strong accumulation in progress by manipulator, similar to that of KS Tech before its strong gain.
China Sky bot 1.33 on short term support, weekly volume evident strong accumulation in progress by manipulator, breakout of an intermediate double bottom correcting formation.
Mapletree Trust bot 1.28 on short term support, breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a strong volume last Fri.
Wilmar added 2.50 on short term support. breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume sessions ago.
Courage Marine bot .205 on short term support, breakout of a huge symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart confirmed by a huge volume.
Suntec Reit added 1.88 on short term support level, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume last Fri.
Live Trading Records for 13 Feb 07, Tue
Beauty China sold 1.02 (bot .937), daily chart evening star triggered short term correction which had driven price to short term support and rebounded off from it yesterday.
HK Land sold 4.40 (bot 4.33), daily chart macd and trix sell signals, sell for prudence.
Pac Andes cut .915 (bot .934), daily chart macd and trix sell signals plus double top correcting formation breakdown, sell for prudence.
China Energy sold 1.38 (bot 1.342 on average), breakdown of uptrend line support, breakdown of short term support at 1.38. but there is no evident bearish signals yet, exited for prudence only.
SP Land sold 9.25 (bot 8.681), daily chart long bearish candle. to buy back at short term support.
Sunshine cut .345 (bot .375) partially filled, breakdown of short term uptrend line support for a few days and could not climb back above it, both macd and trix dropped below 0 lines.
SMB cut .255 (bot .265), below short term support at .255.
StraitsAsia cut .74 at short term resistance (bot .755 sessions ago), below short term support.
Live Trading Records for 14 Feb 07, Wed
Midas cut 1.48 (bot 1.516), below short term support, but still supported by a short term uptrend line.
SGX cut 6.75 (bot 7.00), daily chart below short term support, both macd and trix sell signals out, weekly chart evening star (to be confirmed).
Sino Tech sold 1.48 11:44am (alert not received from iocbc) (bot at around 1.33 on average), daily chart evening star, short term correction likely to continue until touching short term support (based on market average cost) - buy back level.
MACQUARIE MEAG cut 1.20 (bot 1.21), below short term support 1.20. corrected 2 months so far, volumes heavy, 120m shares in total, distribution could be ongoing.
Live Trading Records for 15 Feb 07, Thu
Datacraft cut 1.17 (bot 1.28 cum div US$0.055 per share), below intermediate term support.
Sino Tech bot 1.41 on short term support.
Suntec sold 1.94 (bot 1.853), daily chart cloud cover. after selloff, it rose to 1.96 on par with record high, and both macd and trix buy signals out on the daily chart, thus cloud cover may have been neutralized, have to buy back at short term support (at 1.88 now).
SuperCoffee sold .995 (bot .97), weekly chart shooting star with huge volume, daily chart evening star to be confirmed. lost patience in the manipulator of this counter.
Allgreen cut 1.68 ( bot 1.70), below short term support, both macd and trix sell signals out on the daily chart. corrected 4 weeks but volumes did not contract much - cause of concern: distribution could be ongoing.
CHT sold .85 (bot .74), daily chart cloud cover, resulting in a short term correction, dropped to near short term support at .82 and rebounding off from it today, low .825, take profit by taking advantage of this oppportunity during short term rebound. expect correction to continue.
Hengxin cut .565 (bot .65), lost a whopping 13.1%! terrible! keep on dropping every day. fed up already!Finally, I decided to write it off. need serious reflection. dropped below uptrend line support, short term trend is down.
Sun Power sold .345 (bot .26 on 8 sessions ago), profit 30.7%. , profit taking looks strong, volume 33.5m against yesterday's 79m. hard cash is better than paper profit. expect short term correction to continue since common sense is telling me that it is unsustainable sitting on such a huge paper profit within a very short period. to enter again when appropriate.
Pine sold .68, majority filled (bot .64 on average), daily chart cloud cover.
MMI sold 1.48 (bot 1.20), daily chart evening star leading to current short term correction which will continue, to buy back when reaching short term support currently at around 1.40.
Live Trading Records for 16 Feb 07, Fri
Chip Eng Seng cut .39 filled (bot .40), below short term support.
Sun East bot .34 on short term support.
Tech Oil cut .835 filled (bot .84), below short term support, daily chart head and shoulders formation (SHS). high .84 so far today - just mentioned rebound tg .84 / .855.
Labels: Live Trading Records
12 February 2007
Live Trading Records for Week 05 Feb 07 to 09 Feb 07
Live Trading Records for 05 Feb 07, Monday
China Essence added .745, new high.
Pine added .66, new high.
FoodEmpire bot .905, partially filled, breakout of a micro double bottom correcting formation.
Labroy Marine bot 1.95, breakout of a solid intermediate rectangle correcting formation. iocbc failed to send me alert at 1.91, sth is wrong with iocbc system since switching to current trading platform, paid 2% more, sigh...
Star Cruises bot .46, corrected back to short term support coupled with contractions of volumes.
Capital Land added 6.95.
Live Trading Records for 06 Feb 07, Tue
China Energy added 1.43 and added 1.43, breakout of a nice symmetrical triangle correcting formation and pulled back to support at 1.43. new high, high 1.47 so far today.
ST Engg a quality brandname of Singapore, bot 3.34, added 3.34. pulled back to short term support. want safety of trading capital and potential capital gain, buy ST Engg, that's my slogan.
Tuan Sing bot .26, pulled back to short term support.
Sino Tech Fib added 1.31, pulled back to short term support level, this is likely to be the end of the technical retracement or shaking after breakout of the nice double bottom correcting formation.
Labroy Marine added 1.90 as planned, pulled back to short term support level, the neckline of the intermediate rectangle correcting formation.
Midas added 1.49, pulled back to short term support after breakout of an intermediate ascending triangle correcting formation.
Orchard Parade bot 1.12, pulled back to neckline of the mini double bottom correcting formation after breakout.
Live Trading Records for 07 Feb 07, Wed
AdvSCT added .74 on short term support, correction likely over.
Sunpower bot .26, breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation, confirmed by a huge volume on the breakout day, yesterday, 06 Feb 07, min chart tg .27 (reached this morning) and .34.
SingPost sold 1.20 (average cost 1.065), bad news needs time to be absorbed by the market. technically, there is a requirement of technical correction to short term support at around 1.15. will re-visit it when it reaches short term support at around 1.15.
Wilmar bot 2.51, breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation 2.28-2.50. wave 4 likely to be over and wave 5 likely to have commenced since wave 4 low of 1.28. min short term technical tg 2.72 for now.
Banyan Tree added 1.70, breakout of consolidation area 1.60-1.69, volume 2.3m so far today, correction since breakout of a nice double bottom formation 1.28-1.60 on 19 Jan 07 seems likely to be over. expect to rise to complete its min technical price objective of 1.92.
Raffles Medical sold 1.17 (cost 1.07), it drops a lot and lack of buyers during correction, better sell in good times and pick up on weakness.
StraitsAsia bot .755 near short term support at .74. manipulator is testing the market by pushing price up to .775 this morning and observe how many ppl want to sell at higher level. from the candle and the volume we can see that not many ppl are keen to sell at current level, thus, the manipulator understands that it's good time to lift the price at around current price level.
Live Trading Records for 08 Feb 07, Thu
Allgreen bot 1.70 on short term support.
SuperCoffee bot on breakout of double bottom correcting formation .88-.97, new high, min tg 1.06. short term support .97 / .92.
MMP bot 1.21 on breakout of an ascending triangle correcting formation 1.12-1.20, min tg 1.28.
China Energy added 1.38 on short term support cum uptrend line support, min tg 1.60.
Hengxin added .62, low .615 so far, bull flag reached its terminal stage, breakout impending! risk rating: very low. potential profit: high.
StarCrus cut .435 (bot .46 days ago), keep on dropping and below short term support now, strong support seen .30+ only.
StamfordLand bot .435, breakout of rectangle correcting formation .40-.43, min tg .46.
CSC test buy .25 filled, corrected 4 weeks coupled with significant contractions of weekly volumes, vividly describing exiting of weak speculators / traders.
Live Trading Records for 09 Feb 07, Fri
Luzhou bot .815, breakout of an intermediate downtrend line and breakout of a double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume of 20m+, weekly volumes displaying signs of strong accumulations similar to that of KS Energy but not stronger than later.
Delong bot .175, breakout of a retangle correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume and pulled back to short term support level.
ChipES bot .400, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge voulme and pulled back to short term support.
RafflesMG bot 1.10 (sold 2 sessions ago at 1.17) (partially filled) on short term support level.
pls visit
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=27825&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=1000
for live trading records of Toptrader.
Live Trading Records for 05 Feb 07, Monday
China Essence added .745, new high.
Pine added .66, new high.
FoodEmpire bot .905, partially filled, breakout of a micro double bottom correcting formation.
Labroy Marine bot 1.95, breakout of a solid intermediate rectangle correcting formation. iocbc failed to send me alert at 1.91, sth is wrong with iocbc system since switching to current trading platform, paid 2% more, sigh...
Star Cruises bot .46, corrected back to short term support coupled with contractions of volumes.
Capital Land added 6.95.
Live Trading Records for 06 Feb 07, Tue
China Energy added 1.43 and added 1.43, breakout of a nice symmetrical triangle correcting formation and pulled back to support at 1.43. new high, high 1.47 so far today.
ST Engg a quality brandname of Singapore, bot 3.34, added 3.34. pulled back to short term support. want safety of trading capital and potential capital gain, buy ST Engg, that's my slogan.
Tuan Sing bot .26, pulled back to short term support.
Sino Tech Fib added 1.31, pulled back to short term support level, this is likely to be the end of the technical retracement or shaking after breakout of the nice double bottom correcting formation.
Labroy Marine added 1.90 as planned, pulled back to short term support level, the neckline of the intermediate rectangle correcting formation.
Midas added 1.49, pulled back to short term support after breakout of an intermediate ascending triangle correcting formation.
Orchard Parade bot 1.12, pulled back to neckline of the mini double bottom correcting formation after breakout.
Live Trading Records for 07 Feb 07, Wed
AdvSCT added .74 on short term support, correction likely over.
Sunpower bot .26, breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation, confirmed by a huge volume on the breakout day, yesterday, 06 Feb 07, min chart tg .27 (reached this morning) and .34.
SingPost sold 1.20 (average cost 1.065), bad news needs time to be absorbed by the market. technically, there is a requirement of technical correction to short term support at around 1.15. will re-visit it when it reaches short term support at around 1.15.
Wilmar bot 2.51, breakout of a short term double bottom correcting formation 2.28-2.50. wave 4 likely to be over and wave 5 likely to have commenced since wave 4 low of 1.28. min short term technical tg 2.72 for now.
Banyan Tree added 1.70, breakout of consolidation area 1.60-1.69, volume 2.3m so far today, correction since breakout of a nice double bottom formation 1.28-1.60 on 19 Jan 07 seems likely to be over. expect to rise to complete its min technical price objective of 1.92.
Raffles Medical sold 1.17 (cost 1.07), it drops a lot and lack of buyers during correction, better sell in good times and pick up on weakness.
StraitsAsia bot .755 near short term support at .74. manipulator is testing the market by pushing price up to .775 this morning and observe how many ppl want to sell at higher level. from the candle and the volume we can see that not many ppl are keen to sell at current level, thus, the manipulator understands that it's good time to lift the price at around current price level.
Live Trading Records for 08 Feb 07, Thu
Allgreen bot 1.70 on short term support.
SuperCoffee bot on breakout of double bottom correcting formation .88-.97, new high, min tg 1.06. short term support .97 / .92.
MMP bot 1.21 on breakout of an ascending triangle correcting formation 1.12-1.20, min tg 1.28.
China Energy added 1.38 on short term support cum uptrend line support, min tg 1.60.
Hengxin added .62, low .615 so far, bull flag reached its terminal stage, breakout impending! risk rating: very low. potential profit: high.
StarCrus cut .435 (bot .46 days ago), keep on dropping and below short term support now, strong support seen .30+ only.
StamfordLand bot .435, breakout of rectangle correcting formation .40-.43, min tg .46.
CSC test buy .25 filled, corrected 4 weeks coupled with significant contractions of weekly volumes, vividly describing exiting of weak speculators / traders.
Live Trading Records for 09 Feb 07, Fri
Luzhou bot .815, breakout of an intermediate downtrend line and breakout of a double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume of 20m+, weekly volumes displaying signs of strong accumulations similar to that of KS Energy but not stronger than later.
Delong bot .175, breakout of a retangle correcting formation confirmed by a huge volume and pulled back to short term support level.
ChipES bot .400, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation confirmed by a huge voulme and pulled back to short term support.
RafflesMG bot 1.10 (sold 2 sessions ago at 1.17) (partially filled) on short term support level.
pls visit
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for live trading records of Toptrader.
Labels: Live Trading Records
04 February 2007
Live Trading Records for Week 29 Jan 07 to 02 Feb 07
Live Trading Records for 29 Jan 07, Monday
UOB cut 18.70 (bot 19.10), symmetrical traingle broken down, gapped down, out first for safety of trading capital.
BBR cut .155 (bot .16), daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals out, weekly chart: evening star, an intermediate correction likely ongoing. sand issue likely to continue to be disliked by the market since sand ban is a material bad news.
CSC cut .27 (bot .285 / .27), daily chart: both macd and trix sell signal out, sand ban is a material bad news, out first for safety of trading capital.
Koh Brothers cut .45, bot at .48 , correcting double bottom formation was not confirmed, and bottoms were broken down intraday, a cause of concern, plus rose too much from low, and sand ban is a material bad news, out first for safety of trading capital.
Chip Eng Seng cut .395 (bot .395), daily chart: a minor double top broken down, macd sell signal out, sand ban is a material bad news, out first for safety of trading capital.
HwaHong sold .72 (bot .72 / .715), weekly chart: bearish cloud cover candlestick, an intermediate correction likely to have commenced. technical rebound tg at around .725. out first for safety of trading capital.
AllcoReit cut 1.13 (bot 1.16), daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals out.
Parkway sold 3.26 (bot 3.20), weekly chart: bearish engulfing.
Sino Tech Fib added 1.34 and added 1.34, corrected back to short term support as expected.
Seksun cut .44 (bot .44 / .45) partially filled.
Live Trading Records for 30 Jan 07, Tue
HK Land added 4.40
Live Trading Records for 31 Jan 07, Wed
LC Dev cut .225, both macd and trix sell signals out, broke down an ascending triangle correcting formation.
Seksun cut .435, weekly chart: bearish cloud cover, daily chart: breakdown of a minor double top formation, macd sell signal out.
Technics Oil bot .84, fully filled, corrected back to short term support after breakout of minor correcting formation.
SuntecReit bot 1.81, corrected back to short term support from new high.
Hengxin bot .68, test buy, bull flag likely to have completed judging from quick and consequtive contractions of volumes to low level.
China Energy added 1.41.
Sino Tech Fibre added 1.32, buy 1.31 not filled. corrected 3 days so far, volumes contracting swiftly, implying that this is a normal correction instead of a distribution.
Cosco cut 2.69, daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals are out.
MMP sold 1.17, entitled to div $0.0147 per share, daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals are out.
Live Trading Records for 01 Feb 07, Thu
DBS cut 22.40 (bot 22.50), weekly chart: evening star still valid.
AdvSCT bot .73, pulling back to short term support .725 coupled with contracting volumes after breakout of double bottom correcting formation and producing new high.
Pac Andes test bot .93, weekly chart: bullish! both macd and trix buy signals out, very nice and bullish signals, just like those of Singpost, volumes expanded 6 weeks sequentially, breakout of a huge round bottom correcting formation .635-.92, new high, min chart tg 1.20.
Banyan Tree bot 1.61, pulled back to short term support after breakout of a double bottom correcting formation.
Live Trading Records for 02 Feb 07, Fri
Ho Bee sold 1.51 (bot 1.49), concern: daily chart both macd and trix sell signals out, showed weakness in a strong bullish mood yesterday.
Datacraft bot 1.29, breakout of a nice round bottom correcting formation 1.12-1.26, gapped up at 1.28. support 1.28 / 1.26. min chart tg 1.40.
Midas bot 1.53, pulled back to near short term support at 1.52 after breakout of an ascending triangle correcting formation 1.35-1.52 coupled with a strong volume of 17.5 yesterday, Thu, weekly chart: rising three methods. min chart tg 1.69.
SGX bot 7.00, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation 6.45-7.00, min chart tg 7.55.
Capitaland bot 7.10, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation.
Live Trading Update:
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=27825&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=720
Live Trading Records for 29 Jan 07, Monday
UOB cut 18.70 (bot 19.10), symmetrical traingle broken down, gapped down, out first for safety of trading capital.
BBR cut .155 (bot .16), daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals out, weekly chart: evening star, an intermediate correction likely ongoing. sand issue likely to continue to be disliked by the market since sand ban is a material bad news.
CSC cut .27 (bot .285 / .27), daily chart: both macd and trix sell signal out, sand ban is a material bad news, out first for safety of trading capital.
Koh Brothers cut .45, bot at .48 , correcting double bottom formation was not confirmed, and bottoms were broken down intraday, a cause of concern, plus rose too much from low, and sand ban is a material bad news, out first for safety of trading capital.
Chip Eng Seng cut .395 (bot .395), daily chart: a minor double top broken down, macd sell signal out, sand ban is a material bad news, out first for safety of trading capital.
HwaHong sold .72 (bot .72 / .715), weekly chart: bearish cloud cover candlestick, an intermediate correction likely to have commenced. technical rebound tg at around .725. out first for safety of trading capital.
AllcoReit cut 1.13 (bot 1.16), daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals out.
Parkway sold 3.26 (bot 3.20), weekly chart: bearish engulfing.
Sino Tech Fib added 1.34 and added 1.34, corrected back to short term support as expected.
Seksun cut .44 (bot .44 / .45) partially filled.
Live Trading Records for 30 Jan 07, Tue
HK Land added 4.40
Live Trading Records for 31 Jan 07, Wed
LC Dev cut .225, both macd and trix sell signals out, broke down an ascending triangle correcting formation.
Seksun cut .435, weekly chart: bearish cloud cover, daily chart: breakdown of a minor double top formation, macd sell signal out.
Technics Oil bot .84, fully filled, corrected back to short term support after breakout of minor correcting formation.
SuntecReit bot 1.81, corrected back to short term support from new high.
Hengxin bot .68, test buy, bull flag likely to have completed judging from quick and consequtive contractions of volumes to low level.
China Energy added 1.41.
Sino Tech Fibre added 1.32, buy 1.31 not filled. corrected 3 days so far, volumes contracting swiftly, implying that this is a normal correction instead of a distribution.
Cosco cut 2.69, daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals are out.
MMP sold 1.17, entitled to div $0.0147 per share, daily chart: both macd and trix sell signals are out.
Live Trading Records for 01 Feb 07, Thu
DBS cut 22.40 (bot 22.50), weekly chart: evening star still valid.
AdvSCT bot .73, pulling back to short term support .725 coupled with contracting volumes after breakout of double bottom correcting formation and producing new high.
Pac Andes test bot .93, weekly chart: bullish! both macd and trix buy signals out, very nice and bullish signals, just like those of Singpost, volumes expanded 6 weeks sequentially, breakout of a huge round bottom correcting formation .635-.92, new high, min chart tg 1.20.
Banyan Tree bot 1.61, pulled back to short term support after breakout of a double bottom correcting formation.
Live Trading Records for 02 Feb 07, Fri
Ho Bee sold 1.51 (bot 1.49), concern: daily chart both macd and trix sell signals out, showed weakness in a strong bullish mood yesterday.
Datacraft bot 1.29, breakout of a nice round bottom correcting formation 1.12-1.26, gapped up at 1.28. support 1.28 / 1.26. min chart tg 1.40.
Midas bot 1.53, pulled back to near short term support at 1.52 after breakout of an ascending triangle correcting formation 1.35-1.52 coupled with a strong volume of 17.5 yesterday, Thu, weekly chart: rising three methods. min chart tg 1.69.
SGX bot 7.00, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation 6.45-7.00, min chart tg 7.55.
Capitaland bot 7.10, breakout of a minor double bottom correcting formation.
Live Trading Update:
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=27825&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=720
Labels: Live Trading Records
