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27 October 2007

 
Live Trading Records for 22 Oct 07, Mon
no trading.

Live Trading Records for 23 Oct 07, Tue
SembMar sold 4.84, -11.2%

Live Trading Records for 24 Oct 07, Wed
no trading.

Live Trading Records for 25 Oct 07, Thu
no trading.

while intermediate- to long term uptrends still intact for most counters and indexes, and there are a few situational plays today - China plays and Meiban, etc., short term uptrends are scarce, most counters in my watchlists are still downtrending or mixed (short term trends), I'd rather stay aside for now until I see many short term uptrends.
short term directions must be the same as intermediate- and long term directions before trading.

Live Trading Records for 26 Oct 07, Fri
China Yuanbang bot .41 (partially filled), added .42, tg .465
Noble bot 2.32 on match, tg 2.56
China XLX bot 1.22, tg (to be decided), added 1.23
AdvSCT bot 1.11, tg 1.25
China Milk bot 1.31, tg 1.43, broke out of a falling wedge or a downtrend line

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20 October 2007

 
Live Trading Records for 15 Oct 07, Mon
China Sky added 2.60, tg 2.95
Sinopipe bot .555, tg .725
Chip ES bot .815, min tg .93
Meiban added .605, tg .745
BeautyChina bot 1.21, tg 1.44
Eviro-Hub bot .53, tg .61
Olam bot 3.38, tg 3.84
UOL bot 5.30, tg 5.85
Fibrechem added 1.80, tg 2.45
Jade bot .405, tg .52

Live Trading Records for 16 Oct 07, Tue
Sihuan added .88, tg 1.10
LantroVis bot 0.07, tg 0.10

Live Trading Records for 17 Oct 07, Wed
Sinopipe sold .545, - 1.8%
FerroChina sold 2.60, - 4.8%
TPV sold 1.05, +2.9%
Pine sold .535, - 6.1%
Olam sold 3.26, - 3.6%
LianBeng sold .605, - 3.2%
Kepland sold 8.45, - 1.7%
Jade sold .375, - 7.4%
Foreland sold .545, - 7.6%
Environ-Hub sold .495, - 6.6%
ChipES sold .775, - 4.9%
China Sky sold 2.39, - 7.4%
China Milk sold 1.25, - 12.0%
China Hong sold 1.05, - 11.8%
Fuxing sold .57, - 19.1%
UOL sold 5.20, - 1.9%
Synear sold 2.08, - 9.6%
Swiber sold 3.52, - 1.1%
Sihuan sold .83, - 8.5%
Celestial sold 1.47, - 9.3%
CAO sold 2.70, - 7.8%
CourageM sold .48, +12.9%
Cosco sold 6.85, +0.7%
Fibrechem sold 1.69, - 5.6%
Meiban sold .605, + 5.0%
SinoStar sold .865, - 2.5%
BeautyChina sold 1.22, +0.8%

summary
lost about 5.5% since 05 Oct 07, during this period, put in about S$585k, lost about S$32k.
I'd like to come out first considering huge losses of many counters. something not right.


Live Trading Records for 18 Oct 07, Thu
no trading.

Live Trading Records for 19 Oct 07, Fri
SembMar bot 5.45

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Lessons Learned from 1987 Crash

Twenty years ago Friday, the U.S. stock market suffered its worst one-day drop ever: the Crash of '87. The Dow Jones industrials plunged 508 points, or 22.6%, as waves of selling swamped the New York Stock Exchange. It was a market dislocation so intense that some pundits predicted another Great Depression.

The dire predictions turned out to be wrong. But while one-day declines of that magnitude are extremely rare — one study says crashes are likely to occur once every 75 years — the Black Monday anniversary has prompted Wall Street to wonder: Can such a swift loss of wealth occur again?

A legitimate question. Markets now have many similarities to just before Black Monday. Surging oil prices. A slowing economy. Stocks near records in an aging bull market. Volatility on the rise.

When it comes to financial panics, you can never say never. But most Wall Street experts stress that crashes are low-probability events. A cataclysmic crash, they say, is usually the result of many financial stresses converging at once — and one big dollop of mass hysteria. New regulations, better technology and more proactive central bankers make major financial dislocations less likely. Still, it's hard to predict when and if the market will derail. Given the history of financial panics and the tendency of market psychology to change from bullish optimism to flat-out fear virtually overnight, crashes might never be eliminated from Wall Street's vocabulary.

The big one

Not many people on Wall Street today were working there in 1987. But for those who were there for the free fall, the memories are vivid.

The crash was breathtaking in its sheer, devastating size: An equivalent plunge today would rip the Dow down nearly 3,200 points. A record 604 million shares traded on the NYSE that day, choking the system from the outset.

A third of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow didn't open for the first hour because sell orders swamped buy orders. "It was worse than hell," says Jim Rutledge, a retired NYSE floor specialist. The selling cascaded throughout the day. As bad as the ticker looked, the situation was far worse: Trades were executed and recorded as much as an hour late. "Information dried up," Rutledge says. "We were still living on the tape, and the tape was so far behind, it was useless."

Computerized trading programs kept dumping more stocks onto the market as it plunged. The losses intensified as traders, worried that regulators would shut the market down, scrambled frantically to get out of their positions. Nearly half the Dow's loss happened in the last hour of trading.

"What was most surprising to everyone was how liquidity disappeared," says James Stack, editor of InvesTech Market Analyst, and one of the few advisers to get his clients out of the market before the crash. "If you wanted to sell a stock, there were no buyers."

The Dow's final 508-point loss wasn't finally tallied until long after the market closed. Money manager Frank Cappiello waited around his office until 7 p.m. to see how the market closed. Depressed, he went home to call Roy Neuberger, founder of the Neuberger & Berman funds, one of the few people he knew who had worked on Wall Street during the 1929 crash. If anyone knew what would happen, Cappiello figured, it was Neuberger. But Neuberger called him first. "Frank," Cappiello recalls Neuberger saying, "You're a smart fellow. What do you think will happen tomorrow?"

The big fear — that it would be 1929 all over again — proved unfounded. Stocks plunged early on Tuesday, Oct. 20, then began to rebound in the afternoon, thanks in part to news of U.S. companies announcing plans to buy back their own battered shares — and a sense the market would survive. Although there were several rocky days after the crash, the market bottomed in December and hit new highs within two years. In contrast, the Dow took almost six years to recoup its losses from the 2000-02 bear market.

Out of the blue

To this day, economists and market historians debate what sparked the Crash of '87, despite a massive investigation by a presidential commission, as well as numerous independent research efforts.

One peculiarity of the crash — and of nearly all declines of 10% or more — is that no single news event drove the selling. The market almost never collapses during a big news event. When President Kennedy was assassinated, the Dow fell 3%. The Dow fell 3% the first trading day after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and 7% after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, points to a study that looked for news triggers the day of the 50 largest percentage drops in the stock market. "They came up empty-handed," he says.

But the 1987 crash did confirm that big, devastating meltdowns have several points in common:

•The market makes huge gains beforehand. The Dow soared 44% from the start of 1987 through its Aug. 25, 1987, peak. The Standard & Poor's 500 index had climbed 265% the five years ended August 1987, assuming reinvested dividends, which implies a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.52% verse 5.2896% of CAGR for DOW 30 in the last 100 years during which period the Dow 30 rose to 11497 from 66 as per Warren Buffett. In contrast, the S&P 500 has gained about 92% the past five years, which implies a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.94%.

The run-up to the 1929 crash was even more spectacular: The Dow surged 345% in almost six years, which implies a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.92% verse 5.2896% of CAGR for DOW 30 in the last 100 years.

•Market euphoria reigns. The public doesn't usually focus on the stock market — unless it's skyrocketing. The public's attention was focused on Wall Street in 1987. Tom Wolfe's book The Bonfire of the Vanities, which chronicled Wall Street excesses, was on the best-seller list. And Wall Street, the Oliver Stone movie in which the fictional Gordon Gekko immortalized the line, "Greed is good," was in the works during the crash and premiered in December 1987.

Many argue that it is the swing from mass euphoria to despair that triggers crashes. "The market's trends derive from the mood of the investing herd, which trends and reverses according to its own internal dynamics," says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, perhaps the most celebrated of those who got investors out before the crash.

•Sharp downturns precede the crash. Selling cascades occur for a variety of reasons, including an inability to deal with losses, notes psychiatrist Ari Kiev. Fear is a trigger. "It gets scary when the market starts going down, down, down," says Kiev, author of the upcoming book Mastering Trading Stress. Uncontrolled emotions also amplify the need to get out. "The mind-set just changes dramatically. Catastrophic thinking occurs. People get in the mind-set of doom," he says.

The market had been sliding since late August, but it fell a total of 10% the three days before the crash. Says University of California at Berkeley finance professor Mark Rubinstein: "When those declines happened, there were a lot of people who started to think about it over the weekend who concluded, 'This is not the kind of market I want to be in.' "

•Financial innovation backfires. Institutional investors touted "portfolio insurance" as a way to immunize themselves from huge losses. In theory, offsetting positions in the futures market could keep your portfolio from getting clobbered. But in the chaos of the crash, many portfolio insurance schemes didn't work as planned. Instead, they acted as a trigger to sell when prices were in free fall, exacerbating the losses.

Can it happen again?

"A crash is a very rare event," says Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters. "The odds are always slim, but they do occur." The odds of a meltdown like Black Monday are long — but not as long as might be predicted by financial models, Hulbert says. A 2003 paper by professors Xavier Gabaix, H. Eugene Stanley, Parameswaran Gopikrishnan and Vasiliki Plerou, put the odds at once every 75 years.

Are there similarities between now and 1987? Sure; 1987 was also a pre-election year. Economists then were worried about an economic slowdown. In 1987, the dollar was weakening, and corporate deals were red-hot.

But the differences are far more important, Russell says. In October 1987, the Federal Reserve had just finished a round of rate increases that left the key federal funds rate at 7.50%. In contrast, the Fed cut the fed funds rate a half-percentage point, to 4.75%, last month.

What's more, many of the problems that fed the panic on Black Monday — overwhelmed trading systems, faulty communications and a lack of circuit breakers to halt trading — have been addressed in the past 20 years, says Richard Ketchum, head of regulation for the NYSE, who was head of market regulation for the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1987. "You have dramatically enhanced capacity, better technology, better communication," he says.

Today, average NYSE volume is 1.76 billion shares, vs. the then-record 604 million. Similarly, 585,000 orders were placed during the crash; today, 155 million orders are processed daily. By year's end, the NYSE wants to handle 64,000 order messages a second, vs. 95 messages in 1987.

Then there are the circuit breakers. The market stayed open all day on Oct. 19, 1987. Today, for a 2,700-point, or 20% drop, trading would be halted for two hours if it occurred before 1 p.m. and an hour if it happened between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. The market would close if a 20% drop occurred after 2 p.m.

"The beauty of the circuit breakers is it gives traders time to take a breath and get a better understanding of what's going on," says Ketchum.

But panics have a way of short-circuiting the market's best-planned defenses. Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, offers one scenario with the power to prompt a meltdown: "If we wake up one morning and learn that: Overnight, the value of the dollar has plunged 15% to 20%; prices of U.S. Treasury bonds have plummeted, pushing yields up 3 or 4 percentage points; and commodities, such as gold and oil, skyrocket." In essence, he says, investors should fear anything that indicates a serious movement away from dollar-denominated assets, or something big that would change the investment equation in a matter of hours — such as news hinting at a serious recession.

A geopolitical crisis, forced selling by overleveraged investors or a meltdown in Wall Street-created products, such as derivatives, could also cause a panic.

Still, a 22.6% drop today is unlikely to occur in a single day, says Schiff. "Maybe the Dow goes down 1,000 points per day for a week. Boom. Boom. Boom."

One thing is clear: You can't plan a portfolio around a megacrash. "Could it happen? Sure. Should I bet my portfolio on such a rare event? No," says Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. Most crashes occur after excesses. So don't be greedy. Scour your portfolio for big winners, be it in Chinese stocks, oil or emerging markets, and trim those positions before markets tank, she says. Also, the 1987 crash turned out to be a great buying opportunity. Says Sonders: "After the calamity, start to add, add, add."

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12 October 2007

 
Live Trading Records for 08 Oct 07, Mon
No trades done.

Live Trading Records for 09 Oct 07, Tue
Meiban bot .56X45 lots, tg .62
Sino Star test bot .875X15 lots, tg 1.17 (correction), added .895X15 lots

Live Trading Records for 10 Oct 07, Wed
Celestial bot 1.63X8 lots, tg 2.12, added 1.61X8 lots
Cosco bot 6.70X2 lots, tg 8.95
Fuxing bot .705X18lots, added .70X18lots, tg .775
Sihuan bot .93X15 lots, tg 1.10
Fibrechem bot 1.79X8 lots, tg 2.45, added 1.77X8 lots
FeroChina bot 2.73X5 lots, tg 3.14
TPV bot 1.02, tg 1.14

Live Trading Records for 11 Oct 07, Thu
Cosco added 6.85X2 lots, tg 8.95
CAO bot 2.91X5 lots, tg 3.34, added 2.93X5 lots
China Milk bot 1.41X9 lots, tg 1.88, added 1.42X9 lots
KepLand bot 8.60X2 lots on closing matching, tg 9.50

Live Trading Records for 12 Oct 07, Fri
Synear test bot 2.30X6 lots, tg 3.02
China HongX bot 1.19X22 lots, tg 1.60
China Sky test bot 2.55X5 lots, tg 2.95
Lian bot .625X20 lots, tg .745
Pine bot .57X22 lots, tg .665
Swiber bot 3.56, tg 4.36
CAO added 2.91, tg 3.34
Foreland bot .59, tg .71
CourageM bot .425, tg .50

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08 October 2007

 
Live Trading Records for 01 Oct 07, Mon
Sino Env sold 3.62, +15.3%
UOBK bot 2.21, tg 2.57
Kim Eng bot 2.01, tg 2.20
Yongxin bot .49, tg .595
CSC added .35, tg .455
Hongguo sold 1.27, +30.3%
Contel added .24, tg .29
Pan Hong bot .71 / .72 / .73 S$12500 in total, tg .905
Hongwei bot .40, tg .61
Tuan Sing bot .375, tg .82
China Sky sold 2.21 on match, +12.8%
YangZJ sold 2.35 on match, +19.9%
Techcomp bot .64, tg .69
Pine sold .545, +23.9%
SSH bot .41, added .42, tg .49
Aqua Terra bot .52, tg .555
Sunmart bot .25, tg .305
Annaik bot .36, tg .47
BH Global bot .79, tg .865
Linair bot .335, tg .41
Tuan Sing added .38, tg .82
Lion TC bot .62, tg .72
Lee Metal bot .26, tg .32
Sinwa added .715, tg .835

progress summary
all profit losses in August 07 (about S$100k) have been more than recovered up to date, profit (realised and unrealised) produced new high in line with the general market. paper profit increased S$60k for today alone excluding paper profit for today's buys.

Live Trading Records for 02 Oct 07, Tue
China Energy sold 1.71, +18.9% too expensive
CAO sold half 2.87, +15.0% , fundamentals not clear
RH Energy sold .785, +5.4% , fundamentals no good
NOL bot 5.45, tg 5.90
Finance One bot 1.11, tg 1.27
ChipES bot .835 bot .83, tg .93
Valutronics bot .305, tg .365
Yongnam added .45, tg .56
Popular bot .345, tg .40
Allgreen sold 1.98, +11.9% upgraded tg 1.99 hit
GK Goh sold 1.35, +12.2% upgraded tg 1.36 hit
LottVis added .395, tg .455
Aqua Terra added .535, tg .575
Ho Bee added 2.23, tg 2.54
Bread bot .55, tg .595
Kim Eng sold 2.37 / 2.36, +18.0% , upgraded tg 2.36 hit, high 2.37 so far today
Gent bot .715, tg .76
SPC sold 6.95, tg 7.00 hit, +6.6%
Ezion sold 1.87, +0.5%, not comfortable with its fundamentals
Multi-Con sold .24, +14.3% , tg .25 hit, plus not comfortable with its poor fundamentals

Live Trading Records for 03 Oct 07, Wed
Vicplas bot .185, tg .23
UOL bot 5.50, tg 5.85
LionAP bot .28 / .29, tg .34
Mediaring bot .29, tg .38
Datapulse bot .31, tg .34
ST Engg bot 3.84, tg 4.12
KS Energy bot 4.00, tg 4.26
Labroy bot 2.37, tg 2.74
Starhub bot 3.02, tg 3.22

China Milk sold 1.35, +4.4%
China Hongcheng sold 0.54, +14.9%
CAO sold remaining half 2.78, +11.4%
Fibrechem sold 1.71, +34.6%
Wanxiang sold .445, +9.6%
Sihuan sold .88, +11.1%
SSH sold .395, -4.8%

Live Trading Records for 04 Oct 07, Thu
I have sold 99.9% of my holdings, I could be wrong but I badly want to protect existing profit.
Cash is king at any time.

I expect short term correction to continue especially considering tremendous gain in Hongkong market that could pull back like mad, which could seriously impact Singapore although Singapore did not get much benefit from it.

AdvSCT sold 1.01, +9.8%
China Wheel sold .99, +/-0%
Chip ES sold .805, -3.3%
Federal sold .845, -1.2%
Hiap Hoe sold .93, +6.9%
OKP sold .83, -2.6%
Pac Andes sold .83, +7.8%
Starhub sold 3.04, +0.7%
Labroy sold 2.35, -0.8%
Capcom sold 2.76, -1.8%
Ho Bee sold 2.17, -1.4%
Jaya sold 2.00, +1.0%
Orchard sold 2.11, -0.9%
UOBK sold 2.35, +6.3%
Wheelock sold 2.68, +0.4%
UIC sold 2.99, +1.7%
Yongnam sold .43, +/-0%
Yongxin sold .48, -2.0%
Valutronics sold .275, -9.8%
Tuan Sing sold .38, +0.7%
Travelite sold .48, -1.0%
Tiong Woon sold 1.12, +7.7%
Tai Sin sold .485, -3.0%
Swissco sold 1.35, +4.7%
Suntec sold 1.92, +1.6%
SPH sold 4.34, -1.8%
SMB sold .385, +2.7%
Sinwa sold .68, -4.6%
SGH sold .60, +3.4%
Seksun sold .72, +2.9%
SC Global sold 6.00, +3.4%
Riverstone sold .405, -1.2%
Popular sold .33, -4.3%
Parkway sold 4.30, +1.4%
Pan Hong sold .745, +3.5%
NOL sold 5.20, -4.6%
Lum Chang sold .41, +6.5%
LottVis sold .36, -4.8%
Lian sold .51, +8.5%
LC sold .515, +8.4%
KepLand sold 8.65, +6.1%
Hupsteel sold .585, -4.1%
HongFok sold 1.62, +6.6%
GoldenAgri sold 1.35, -4.9%
Gent sold .70, -2.1%
Funchoi sold .655, +/-0%
FujianZY sold .765, +14.2%
FinaOne sold 1.04, -6.3%
Delong sold 3.42, +6.9%
CSC sold .345, +/-0%
Contel sold half .225, +2.3%
CityDev sold 16.40, +5.8%
CapMall sold 3.76, +0.8%
CG sold .66, +11.9%
Bread sold .525, -4.5%
Ausg sold 1.85, +0.5%
ASL sold 1.63, +2.5%
Asis Env sold .78, +20.0%
Asia Ent sold .51, +2.0%
Armstrong sold .45, +/-0%
Aqua sold .495, -6.2%
KS sold 4.04, +1.0%
ST Engg sold 3.88, +1.0%
Vicplas sold .18, -2.7%
UOL sold 5.25, -1.9%
Mediaring sold .295, +1.7%
Datapulse sold .31, +/-0%
LionAP sold .285, -1.7%
AdvaHldgs sold .49, -3.9%

BH sold .79, +/-0.0%
Techcomp sold .605, -5.5%
Sunmart sold .24, -4.0%
LionTC sold .60, -3.2%
Linair sold .315, -6.0%
Lee Metal sold .28, +7.7%
Annaik sold .34, -5.6%

Reflection
must sell a counter once predetermined target price is hit even if have to sell a few bids below target price.
Fibrechem hit tg at 1.89, but did not manage to sell it due to a little bit hesitaion since price dropped a few bids below target (1.89). end up to sell at 1.71 yesterday, what a waste!
China Milk hit tg at 1.53 and exceeded, did not sell due to similar reason, end up sell at 1.35 yesterday, what a waste!

can not keep on upgrading target price!
KeppleLand hit tg at 8.80 but tg upgraded to 9.55 so as to miss excellent opportunity to sell at tg! sold at 8.65 today!
CityDev hit tg at 16.9 but upgraded to 17.2 and later upgraded again to 17.9. sold at 16.4 today!
ChinaWheel tg 1.12 hit, but tg upgraded to 1.27, sold today at .99! what a waste!
SGH tg hit at .62, high .63, not sold, but sold at .60 today!
FujianZY tg .83 hit, upgraded to 1.08, sold at .765 today!
CapMall tg 4.00 hit, but upgraded to 4.30 due to greed, sold at 3.76 today!
Asia Env tg .82 hit and not sold, sold at .78 today!
Wanxiang tg .49 hit but not sold, sold at .445 yesterday
Multicon tg .25 hit not sold later sold at .24!

Should sell when price closes target, no need to wait for the tg to be hit!
UOBK high 2.51 closes tg 2.57, not sold, but sold at 2.35 today!

Live Trading Records for 05 Oct 07, Fri
Anwell sold 0.095 on match, +/-0.0%

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