08 November 2018
Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) market cycles provided 4 major opportunities in the past 31 years from 1987 to 2018
Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) market cycles provided 4 major opportunities in the past 31 years from 1987 to 2018.
Assume you got USD1m, your money was trippled to USD3m in the first opportunity; USD9m in the 2nd; USD27m in the 3rd; USD81m in the 4th!
Assume you got another 4 opportunities in the coming 31 years, what will happen?
What will happen if you use a margin of 300% in each opportunity?
So my friend, do not worry too much. Even if you got USD100k only now, you could have USD8.1m after 31 years!
Long Term Investment Strategy:
Buy the bluest stocks at 100% of planned amount after STI drops by 50% from high; buy another 50% with margin after STI drops by 60%; buy another 25% with margin after STI drops by 70%.
All of following conditions must be met before long term buying.
MSCI World Market Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient world wide)
S&P 500 dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure US drop is significant and sufficient thus does not affect other countries especially the country you are in)
STI Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient country wide thus does not affect the sector you are in)
Sector Index of the stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient sector wide thus does not affect the stocks you are in)
Stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient)
Check past 30 to 50 years of chart history of the candidate stocks (usually coming from the national stock index component companies) and select those stocks that rose the most in percentage (much much more than the index growth) in every bull market from the bear market bottom; (To makke sure you are able to outperform the index)
Target price: rising by at least 200% from the bear market bottom. (This is the minimum target, do not consider profit taking before this price)
Assume you got USD1m, your money was trippled to USD3m in the first opportunity; USD9m in the 2nd; USD27m in the 3rd; USD81m in the 4th!
Assume you got another 4 opportunities in the coming 31 years, what will happen?
What will happen if you use a margin of 300% in each opportunity?
So my friend, do not worry too much. Even if you got USD100k only now, you could have USD8.1m after 31 years!
Long Term Investment Strategy:
Buy the bluest stocks at 100% of planned amount after STI drops by 50% from high; buy another 50% with margin after STI drops by 60%; buy another 25% with margin after STI drops by 70%.
All of following conditions must be met before long term buying.
MSCI World Market Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient world wide)
S&P 500 dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure US drop is significant and sufficient thus does not affect other countries especially the country you are in)
STI Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient country wide thus does not affect the sector you are in)
Sector Index of the stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient sector wide thus does not affect the stocks you are in)
Stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient)
Check past 30 to 50 years of chart history of the candidate stocks (usually coming from the national stock index component companies) and select those stocks that rose the most in percentage (much much more than the index growth) in every bull market from the bear market bottom; (To makke sure you are able to outperform the index)
Target price: rising by at least 200% from the bear market bottom. (This is the minimum target, do not consider profit taking before this price)
Labels: Back Test, Charts, Historical Teachings, History, Margin, plan, STI ETF, Stock Trading System, Thoughts, Value Investing, Warren Buffett
07 July 2012
US Stocks Back Test Result 07 Jul 12
Trading Conditions
Daily chart SMA50/200 duo pai plus double bottom;
SMA50/200 kong pai plus double top;
last 9 months from Oct 2011 to Jul 2012
Labels: Back Test, Reference, Stock Trading System
04 July 2011
Standard Chartered Bank offering stock brokerage service at lowest commission of 0.18% to 0.20% and without imposing minimum commission
I think SCB scheme is excellent for long term investors using dollar cost averaging method - buy STI ETF 1000 or Nikko AM STI ETF 100 - you can buy as low as 100 units (for Nikko AM STI ETF 100) a time to have a highly accurate averaging with no minimum commission. hope it will not change this scheme in the future.
instead of buying once a month, you can further diversify time of buying by dividing into 4 to 5 times a month, say, buy 100 units of Nikko STI ETF 100 every Friday at 4.30pm.
this is an important clue for serious long term investors that are considering using DCA method to reduce risk and achieve a reasonable long term compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to 5.6% plus annual dividend of about 2% to 3% plus cost savings of x% due to using DCA (20.3% cost savings for the last 31.4 years from Jan 1980 to May 2011) according to my calculation of STI performance in the last 31.4 years.
long term investment means investing for 10 to 30 years.
instead of buying once a month, you can further diversify time of buying by dividing into 4 to 5 times a month, say, buy 100 units of Nikko STI ETF 100 every Friday at 4.30pm.
this is an important clue for serious long term investors that are considering using DCA method to reduce risk and achieve a reasonable long term compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to 5.6% plus annual dividend of about 2% to 3% plus cost savings of x% due to using DCA (20.3% cost savings for the last 31.4 years from Jan 1980 to May 2011) according to my calculation of STI performance in the last 31.4 years.
long term investment means investing for 10 to 30 years.
Labels: Back Test, brokerage, Dollar Cost Averaging, ETF, STI ETF
