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22 April 2007

 
Live Trading Records for 16 Apr 07, Mon
Hup Steel bot .54 added .54
Asiapharm sold .775, +9.1%
China Essence sold .895, +5.3%
Sky China Petrol bot .50
Cosco added 2.95
JurTech bot .89
Wingtai sold 3.46, -0.6%
Sino Tech sold 1.38, -1.1%, export tax rebate to reduce
CG Tech sold .885, +5.9% , export tax rebate to reduce
China Sky sold 1.65, +11.5% , export tax rebate to reduce
Jiutian sold 2.24, +0%
HogenCtr bot 1.07
Gent added .955
Cityspring bot 1.42
SP Land bot 11.00

Live Trading Records for 17 Apr 07, Tue
Comfort bot 2.20 added 2.23
Ouhua bot .495
Lee KT bot .615
Sino Env bot 3.62 added 3.60
Pacific HC sold .35, +9.3%
JEL added .36
Midas bot 1.72 added 1.70
Asia Water bot .80
Pan United Marine bot 1.83 added 1.82
HLN sold .58, +13.7
Noble bot 1.63 added 1.62

Live Trading Records for 18 Apr 07, Wed
Golden Agri bot 2.77 added 2.75
Seksun added .605
Cenersave bot .20
Sinwa sold half .61, +15.1%
Middle East sold .34, +31.8%
Yangzijiang bot 1.38
China Farm bot .77 added .76
Berlian bot .345 on match in pm trading
Easycall bot .92
Hosen bot .395
Singpost bot 1.16

Live Trading Records for 19 Apr 07, Thu
China Energy sold 1.38, +13.1% tg 1.39 hit
Yangzijiang sold 1.32, -4.3% loss stop hit
Sinopipe sold .39, +5.4 shooting star confirmed by huge volume yesterday
Yongnam sold .355, +20.3% exceeded tg .33 and revised tg .35, high .38
Swiber sold 1.66 on match pre-opening, +27.6% contra deadline due

many other sell orders will be posted later.

Live Trading Records for 20 Apr 07, Fri
GMG bot .16
SingTel sold 3.40, +0.9%
Lereno sold .21, -3.4%
Oakwell sold .135, +3.8%
SSH sold .27, -3.6%
Ho Bee bot 2.41
A-Sonic bot .255
ElectroTech sold .535, -2.3%

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15 April 2007

 
Joshing on Flag Target Calculation

Joshing wrote:
Joshing wrote:
I've traded UTAC before, so I know what you and Vangelis mean. Trading behaviour is rather odd.

However, there are merits to why I entered UTAC this round. (I did a lot of considerations)

Daily charts -

Past 3 days, highs were as follows - 0.94, 0.935, and 0.93. Today's high should be 0.925 but we have exceeded that. Share price has broken out.

Plot downtrend from 0.955 on 13th March 07, connect to 22nd March 07 at 0.94, and extend it past today's date. Confirmation of breakout.

There was a tweezer bottom at 0.92 yesterday and this short term bullish formation is complete when price moved above yesterday's high of 0.93

Flag formation (flag pole from 8th March to 13th) is now complete yielding upside target of 1.03/04, coincides with upside gap at 1.00-01 formed on 15th May 06.

Weekly Charts -

Weekly has a tweezer bottom at 0.905 last week. Apply the same rule of tweezers like earlier, this formation is complete when price moved above last week's high of 0.94

Coupled with the fact that price failed to move lower a few weeks back and closed back near the high on week ending 2nd March where we saw price hit 0.795


How does one calculate the flag target?

Since we have so much free time today, I thought I'd go through this.

The flag formation is characterized by a series of constant up moves followed by a consolidation mode. This consolidation mode can be above the highest point of the flag pole, around the highest point, or even below. As long as this consolidation doesn't move to near the lowest point of the flag pole, this flag formation is not considered negated.

As the flag consolidation moves to form, it will become more obvious whether the flag will break upwards or negate. The purpose of writing is to explain how to derive the flag targets and not to teach you how to identify the flag.

So first and foremost before continuing to read, you must be able to identify flag formations.

Since I already have a ready made example on UTAC, let's explore this one.

March 8th 2007, price low is at 0.865, closed at 0.905
March 9th 2007, price closed at 0.91
March 12th 2007, price closed at 0.94
March 13th 2007, price closed at 0.95
March 14th 2007, price closed lower than 0.95, i.e. negative.

These are 4 consecutive trading sessions. Note they have to be consecutive. Price has constantly closed higher. The important word here is "close".

To calculate the upside target, you take the beginning of the run at 0.865 and the highest closing of 0.95, and find the difference.

0.95 - 0.865 = 0.085

The difference is 0.085. You take this difference, and you add it back to the top of 0.95 and you will arrive at

0.95 + 0.085 = 1.035

This will be the target of the flag break run and to be even more specific, the bid and offer quotes will be at 1.03/04 for the target to be complete.

If the chart gets negated, this target will also get negated. Depending on circumstances, there is a chance that price will run to 3 bids below (i.e. 1.00/01) in times of bad sentiment, or overshot by 3 bids above (i.e. 1.06/07) in times of strong sentiment.

In UTAC's case, given the huge float, I don't think it will be able to overshoot. More likely than not, it will run to somewhere below 3 bids to target.

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Joshing on Breakaway Gap Verse News / Broker Coverage

Joshing wrote:
chr wrote:
Joshing wrote:
Bought some Inter-Roller at 0.985

0049 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch starts Inter-Roller
Engineering (J74.SG) at Buy with S$1.59 target price as believes stock will be re-rated in coming year on strong order book prospects; forecasts EPS CAGR of 28% over 2007-09 which translates into "attractive" P/E of 12X for FY07, 10X for 2008. "Inter-Roller has succeeded admirably in penetrating the international markets for aviation infrastructure projects;" rising passenger traffic to continue driving growth of airport infrastructure. Stock yesterday closed down 1.1% at S$0.885.(WES)


i'm not sure on how the prediction for interroller was done, as in your timing was pretty much perfect; the stock closed at $1.03, and you bought in at $0.985, way higher than any last done price in any six months, and off the 14d, 1.75std dev bollinger band limit, catching the sudden gap up - generally, i wouldn't dare to touch a stock which shows a sudden gap up in the day itself, as i'm a bit on the conservative side.

Aside from that, any indicators why you particularly chose the entry today, at a particularly high price (vs the previous 6 months?)

Personally, from what can gauge of the indicators, looking at the 12/26d macd, while there was a very obvious "long" call on it since mid march, with the price increasing, the 14d MA cuts the 50d MA decisively on 2 apr.

Also, the accumulation vs the sellout of the CMF and RSI seemed healthy, but overall, i didn't see any positive indicator to point to the sudden gap up (aside from the news report quoted above)

Attempted to chart a wedge/triangle, but generally, i don't find such wedges/triangles too helpful, as it depends on the anchor timeframe.

lastly, I couldn't see any bullish mat hold in the candlesticks for 29/30 march, as the closing was 0.5c below the previous day.

Aside from that, are we expecting a flag/pennant in the days to come, or can we expect it to continue its upsteam for consecuetive days? Long term wise, my indicators say it's still positive to hold/buy, although I haven't confirmed the fundamental ratios yet, as a MOR trader.


This is part of my own technique which I have researched and discovered a relationship between market news and price behaviour. It's not standard teachings from the textbook; rather you won't find this in books.

Let me copyright this first before I go further

You are not allowed to republish the following (below) without permission of my written consent.

How does one tell the difference between a common gap and a breakaway gap? At the initial glance, it is really hard to apply the theory practically.

Common gaps will be covered eventually.
Breakaway gaps don't (This however, contradicts the technical point that all gaps will be covered) or rather I would say, not so soon.

Breakaway gaps occur when the gap up is news related. Look at the charts for

China Hongxing at 17th Apr 2006. What happened here? The company announced a placement to investors. But what's important in this placement is that there is a condition that it will meet profit targets set out in the announcement up till 2009.

China Hongxing at 10th Nov 2006. What happened here? Research report coverage on the stock.

Sino-Environment at 14th Dec 2006. What happened here? Announcement of some acquisition to boost production.

Pacific Andes at 26th March 2007. What happened here?
Announcement of acquisition in China Fishery.

Labroy Marine at 13th March 2006. What happened here?
Announcement of first rig project.

Epure at 22nd Nov 2006. What happened here?
Research coverage issued on the stock.

Chemoil at 29th March 2006. What happened here?
Research coverage by JPM.

Inter-Roller at 3rd April 2007. What happened here?
Research coverage by Morgan Stanley.

There are many other occassions where such events have occured in the past, but what is crucial is the price behaviour. All these stocks gapped up from the open and usually see substantial gains. The reverse is true, i.e. profit warnings, bad news etc.

Their opening prices are also usually the low (for bullish breaks) and highs (for bearish breaks). When breakaway gaps occur, no supports and resistances will hold and sentiment towards that stock is usually manic/panic.

How do we trade this?

We buy/sell (depending on the news if its bearish or bullish) at the open with the condition that

- the stock MUST gap up/down
- the preceding chart formations look ok to support a breakaway gap, market depth etc.

- cut loss at 3 bids below open price
- no upside target. Just ride with it and monitor intra day for signs of weakness

FJ Benjamin gapped up this morning on news that GS covered the stock with a strong buy rating. I'm just basically repeating the same process I did yesterday with Inter-Roller and Pacific Andes not too long ago.

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Live Trading Records for 09 Apr 07, Mon
FJBen bot .82
SPC bot 4.84
ASTI bot .285
Inter Roller bot 1.07
Indofood bot 1.23
Wing Tai bot 3.48
Tai Sin bot .41
Sunpower bot .43
Sinopipe bot .37
Pine bot .67
Lottvision sold .37 / .39, profit 39.4%
StraitsAsia bot 1.04 / 1.05
HLN bot .51
Mediaring bot .41
Sihuan bot .68 / .675 / .67
Rotary bot 1.03
Kingsmen bot .595
Adampak bot .565
Cosco bot 2.90
Kinergy bot .31
AdvSCT added .77 added .765
Lian Beng added .31
Longcheer bot .78 added .77
Pan United bot .89 added .885
Hengxin bot .56
Lereno bot .225
Raffles MG sold 1.35, profit 7.1%
TT Int bot .27
DMX bot .58

Live Trading Records for 10 Apr 07, Tue
AsiaPharm bot .71
Electrotech bot .555 added .54
Auston bot .365 added .36 added .37
NOL bot 3.36
CG Tech bot .835
China Oil bot 1.55 added 1.54
Jardine CC bot 13.00

Live Trading Records for 11 Apr 07, Wed
IndoAgri bot 1.28 added 1.27
Lereno added .21
China Essence bot .855 added .835
Starhub bot 2.89, partially filled
China Sky bot 1.49 added 1.47
Gallant bot 1.28 added 1.26
Union Steel bot .39
China Bearing bot .47 added .46
Jadason bot .24
Broadway bot .855 added .845
Hengxin cut .535, -4.5%
Semkim bot .71
Kingsmen sold .64, +7.6%
AscottReit bot 2.03

Live Trading Records for 12 Apr 07, Thu
SPC added 4.90
Midsouth bot .73 added .725
Zhonggguo Power Plus bot .33
Hiap Seng bot .80
UTAC bot .95 added .955
PDC bot 0.08 added 0.08
Pac Andes bot 1.18 added 1.16
SuperCoffee bot .92 added .90
Swiber bot 1.30
Yongnam bot .295

Live Trading Records for 13 Apr 07, Fri
China Sun bot .68
DMX added .59
Stamford Land bot .53
Cambridge sold .845, +0.6%
UnionMet sold .585, -11.4%
Mediaring sold half .445, +8.5%
Swissco bot .70
SSH bot .28
Chem Oil bot .80 added .79
Sinwa added .545 added .535
Middle East bot .26 added .255
China Oil added 1.57
NOL added 3.64
Adampak sold .71, +25.6%
Labroy bot 2.23

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06 April 2007

 
Live Trading Records for Week 02 Apr 07 to 06 Apr 07

Live Trading Records for 02 Apr 07, Mon
Miyoshi sold .31, profit 12.7%
Ouhua sold .475, profit 13.1%
Middle East Dev sold .24, profit 15.4% (bot .26 and got 50% rightsshares free of charge which was sold at .12 per share earlier)
China Sky sold 1.53, profit 13.3
Zhongguo Power Plus bot .31
Chip Eng Seng added .395
Sino Env bot 3.52
BBR bot .16
UIC added 2.93
China Haida bot .295
JurTech bot .81
China Fish bot 4.50
AdvSCT bot .75
Ausgroup added .675
Tat Hong bot 1.41
Sunpower bot .425

=========================================

ASL sold 1.00, profit 5.3%
Ausgroup sold .675, profit 4.6%
Auston sold .335, profit 4.7%
Beauty China sold, profit 0%
Bread Talk sold .41, profit 0%
Broadway sold .845, profit 3.7%
CapitaRChina sold 3.06, profit 0%
CapMall sold 3.74, profit 0%
China Energy sold 1.17, profit 0%
China Farm sold .700, profit 6%
China Milk sold 1.29, profit 7.5%
Chip Eng Seng sold .385, profit 2%
City Dev sold 14.6, profit 1.2%
Cityneon sold .445, profit 5.9%
CNA sold .59, profit 9.3%
Comfort sold 1.99, profit 3.1%
CSC sold .255, profit 10.9%
CWT sold .955, profit 1.6%
DMX sold .58, profit 0%
Hiap Seng sold .735, profit 2.1%
Hongguo sold 1.23, profit 0%
Jiutian sold 2.15, profit 10.3%
K-Reit sold 3.22, profit 0%
Kep Land sold 9.60, profit 3.8%
KS Energy sold 2.91, profit 2.1%
Longcheer sold .735, profit 0%
Luzhou sold .675 / .665, lost 1.5%
Macqaurie Inf sold 1.11, profit 0%
Midas sold 1.68, profit 6.3%
MMI sold 1.64, profit 3.8%
OCBC sold 9.00, profit 2.8%
Pan United Corp sold .87, profit 3.6%
Pan UM sold 1.85, profit 4.5%
Parkway sold 3.34, profit 3%
PFood sold 1.52, profit 4.8%
Rotary sold .975, profit 4.3%
SC Global sold 4.68, profit 1.7%
SembKim sold .665, profit 1.5%
Sino Tech sold 1.34, profit 1.5%
SMRT sold 1.49, profit 0%
SP Chem sold 1.08, profit 0%
SSH sold remaining positions .265, profit 3.9%
ST Engg sold 3.36, profit 1.2%
Suntec Reit sold 2.00, profit 3.1%
Swiber sold 1.33, profit 3.1%
Swissco sold .645, profit 2.4%
TPV sold .97, profit 1%
UIC sold 2.96 / 2.95, profit 6.1%
UnionMet sold half .66, profit 3.1%
Wheelock sold 3.34, profit 5.7%
Yongnam sold .28, profit 0%
Tat Hong sold 1.45, profit 2.8%
Ausgroup sold .67 (bot .675 today)
UIC sold 2.95 (bot 2.93 today)
China Fish sold 4.52 (bot 4.50 today)
CNA sold .59 (bot .595 today)

Amara sold .635, profit 3.3%
Bonvests sold 1.97, profit 0%
Capital Land sold 7.90, profit 5.3%
Ezra sold 5.40, profit 4.8%
FerroChina sold 1.69, profit 9.0%
Koh Bro sold .385, profit 18.5%
Synear sold 1.99, profit 3.1%
Tuan Sing sold .28, profit 12%
UE sold 3.26, profit 5.8%

Live Trading Records for 03 Apr 07, Tue
JurTech sold .82, profit 1.2%
Chip Eng Seng sold .395, profit 0%
China Haida sold .305, profit 3.4%
AdvSCT sold .74, lost 1.3%
Allco Reit sold 1.29, lost 0.8%
Aqua Terra sold .45, lost 1%
Ascot Reit sold 1.98, lost 4.3%
Asia Water sold .725, lost 1.4%
China Life sold .34, lost 3.7%
FJBen sold .705, profit 0%
F&N sold 5.20, profit 0%
GMG sold .13, profit 0%
Jadason sold .235, profit 0%
Madarin sold 1.90, lost 5.9%
Maple sold 1.29, lost 0.7%
Mediaring sold .385, lost 3.8%
Zhongguo Power Plus sold .315, profit 0%
Sunpower sold .43, profit 0%
Sino Env sold 3.46, lost 1.1%
Sing Inv sold 2.01, profit 0%
Sinopipe sold .34, lost 4.3%
Sinwa sold .52, profit 0%
SMB sold .28, profit 0%
Soilbuild sold .965, profit 2.6%
Stamford sold .41, lost 1.2%
Sunvic sold .75, lost 4.5%
Unionsteel sold .38, profit 1.3%
UnionMet sold .655, profit 2.7%
UOBK sold 1.53, profit 0%
UOB sold 21.2, profit 1%
UOL sold 5.25, profit 1%
Westech sold .265, profit 1.9%
AutoTouch sold .14, lost 3.4%
Beng Kuang sold .445, lost 2.2%
Golden Agri sold 1.76, lost 0.6%
Guangzhao sold .195, profit 5.4%
HL Fin sold 4.02, profit 2.3%
Pine sold .635, profit 3.1%
See Hup Seng sold .485, lost 1%
Seksun sold .555, lost 1.8%
Soilbuild sold .945, lost 0.5%
Swiber sold 1.34, profit 1.5%
Kingboard bot .44[/quote]

Live Trading Records for 04 Apr 07, Wed
Gent bot .92
SGX bot 6.75
AdvSCT bot .765
UnionMet bot .66
Lian Beng bot .305
Koh bot .400 / .395
Chip ES bot .415
CSC bot .265
BBR bot .155 / .155
Courage M sold .22, profit 0%
Sino Tech bot 1.40 added 1.39
Spore Tel bot 3.38, added 3.36

Live Trading Records for 05 Apr 07, Thu
Seksun bot .585
AsiaFP bot .805
JEL bot .365 added .36
LottVision bot .275 added .27
Luzhou bot .69, added .715
Wilmar bot 2.82
Cambrige bot .84
Oakwell bot .13
ASL bot 1.06 added 1.05
Innovalu bot 1.38 added 1.37
Jiutian bot 2.24
Sinwa bot .51
China Milk bot 1.33
China Energy bot 1.23 added 1.22
Tiongwoon bot .575
Raffles MG bot 1.26

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