28 November 2018
5 Stock Investing Lessons from Car COE 20181128
By Dr Tee Tong Yan
Latest Singapore Car COE for Cat A (Nov 2018) is $25000, falling from nearly $100000 over the past 6 years till now. Many people wonder if it is possible to get COE at $50 or even $1 again.
I review the last year Ein55 Graduate Homework (Nov 2017) in application of Optimism on Singapore Car COE, here are the 5 lessons which can be learned and extended to stock investing.
1) Trend of long term car COE is up, indicating COE has become an asset (although limited lifetime of 10 years) or commodity which has value.
- Similar to investing, even for giant stocks which could grow in share price over the decade, they may not be suitable for everyone, only for longer term investors. A key difference is stock value could remain or stronger after 10 years but Singapore Car COE would drop to value of $0.
2) Optimism has been declining over the past 6 years, COE price trends have been bearish in short term and medium term. Over the past few years, each time COE shows a record lower price since the peak of $100000, potential buyers would get attracted to buy car but get disappointed later as price continue to drop further the next year.
- Similar to investment, even for long term value investing stocks, their share prices could fall in short to medium terms. Therefore, integration of trading into investing is crucial, avoiding buy low get lower. More importantly, an investor should know the fair value of a stock, buying at a low optimism price.
3) Few people is able to buy at $1 historical low price of Car COE as usually it happens during global financial crisis when most people are fearful with limited cash or purchasing power. The timing of next possible $1 Car COE price depends on when will be the next global financial crisis and also the degree of low optimism.
- Similar to stock investment, we don't have to guess when a crisis would come. Instead, we just wait for the low prices come to us. When the great sales of global stocks (global financial crisis) has come, one needs to prepare in advance, eg. selling stocks at high optimism first, converting to cash, waiting patiently for prices to drop below value again, more precisely, a low optimism price. This way, we don't have to speculate on future happening, depend on known facts of value and prices available now to make a high probability decision: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting.
4) In general, Car COE Category A < $10,000 could be considered low Optimism price, any lower price (eg. $1 to $9999) is just a bonus. Value is what you get (10 years COE) and price is what you pay. Therefore, for 2 different car buyers, one may buy COE at $10000 while another one may be lucky to get at $1, but both will be happy, $10000 buyer may not think "losing" of $9999 when comparing with lucky case of $1.
- Similar to stock investing, investors should not speculate to buy at the lowest price as it is nearly impossible to know (reverse is also true, to sell at the highest price). Instead, we should apply Optimism to know when to buy low enough, when to sell high enough, which is more reliable from probability point of view. Some stock investors who acquires stocks at high value (eg. high quality assets of property or cash), they may still feel "lose" money when share prices fall down. One should train to view value and price as if buying a handbag at 2 different sales, one could be 50% sales, another one could be 70% sales, both are bargains, no need to buy at the best sales which no one would know exactly.
5) For car owners with COE expiring soon, there is an option to renew with 5 or 10 years extended COE (at the current rate of $25000), using the next 5 or 10 years to wait for the next global financial crisis, if it happens 2 years later, just sell back the remaining years of COE (eg. 3 or 8 years) at the original price of $25000, buying a new car with lower optimism COE price (eg. less than $10000 for Category A), "earning" from the difference.
- The strategy above is similar to shorting in stock trading, sell high buy low. Although there is no shorting in Car COE, this is a strategy as car owners may not able to wait for a period of time without car to buy car at low optimism price. However, it is possible for stock investors to keep 100% cash, waiting for the next global financial crisis to buy low safely with 10 global giant stocks, assuming one has the holding power through the winter time of stock market.
Latest Singapore Car COE for Cat A (Nov 2018) is $25000, falling from nearly $100000 over the past 6 years till now. Many people wonder if it is possible to get COE at $50 or even $1 again.
I review the last year Ein55 Graduate Homework (Nov 2017) in application of Optimism on Singapore Car COE, here are the 5 lessons which can be learned and extended to stock investing.
1) Trend of long term car COE is up, indicating COE has become an asset (although limited lifetime of 10 years) or commodity which has value.
- Similar to investing, even for giant stocks which could grow in share price over the decade, they may not be suitable for everyone, only for longer term investors. A key difference is stock value could remain or stronger after 10 years but Singapore Car COE would drop to value of $0.
2) Optimism has been declining over the past 6 years, COE price trends have been bearish in short term and medium term. Over the past few years, each time COE shows a record lower price since the peak of $100000, potential buyers would get attracted to buy car but get disappointed later as price continue to drop further the next year.
- Similar to investment, even for long term value investing stocks, their share prices could fall in short to medium terms. Therefore, integration of trading into investing is crucial, avoiding buy low get lower. More importantly, an investor should know the fair value of a stock, buying at a low optimism price.
3) Few people is able to buy at $1 historical low price of Car COE as usually it happens during global financial crisis when most people are fearful with limited cash or purchasing power. The timing of next possible $1 Car COE price depends on when will be the next global financial crisis and also the degree of low optimism.
- Similar to stock investment, we don't have to guess when a crisis would come. Instead, we just wait for the low prices come to us. When the great sales of global stocks (global financial crisis) has come, one needs to prepare in advance, eg. selling stocks at high optimism first, converting to cash, waiting patiently for prices to drop below value again, more precisely, a low optimism price. This way, we don't have to speculate on future happening, depend on known facts of value and prices available now to make a high probability decision: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting.
4) In general, Car COE Category A < $10,000 could be considered low Optimism price, any lower price (eg. $1 to $9999) is just a bonus. Value is what you get (10 years COE) and price is what you pay. Therefore, for 2 different car buyers, one may buy COE at $10000 while another one may be lucky to get at $1, but both will be happy, $10000 buyer may not think "losing" of $9999 when comparing with lucky case of $1.
- Similar to stock investing, investors should not speculate to buy at the lowest price as it is nearly impossible to know (reverse is also true, to sell at the highest price). Instead, we should apply Optimism to know when to buy low enough, when to sell high enough, which is more reliable from probability point of view. Some stock investors who acquires stocks at high value (eg. high quality assets of property or cash), they may still feel "lose" money when share prices fall down. One should train to view value and price as if buying a handbag at 2 different sales, one could be 50% sales, another one could be 70% sales, both are bargains, no need to buy at the best sales which no one would know exactly.
5) For car owners with COE expiring soon, there is an option to renew with 5 or 10 years extended COE (at the current rate of $25000), using the next 5 or 10 years to wait for the next global financial crisis, if it happens 2 years later, just sell back the remaining years of COE (eg. 3 or 8 years) at the original price of $25000, buying a new car with lower optimism COE price (eg. less than $10000 for Category A), "earning" from the difference.
- The strategy above is similar to shorting in stock trading, sell high buy low. Although there is no shorting in Car COE, this is a strategy as car owners may not able to wait for a period of time without car to buy car at low optimism price. However, it is possible for stock investors to keep 100% cash, waiting for the next global financial crisis to buy low safely with 10 global giant stocks, assuming one has the holding power through the winter time of stock market.
17 November 2018
Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) Component companies Historical Performance Verse Indexes with Charts
(To be updated)
Date MSCI World Index dropped 50% Date S&P500 dropped 50% Date STI dropped 50% Date Sector Index dropped 50% Date Stock dropped 50% Stock dropped % when S&P500 dropped 50% Stock dropped % when STI dropped 50% Stock dropped % when Sector Index dropped 50% Indexes Rose % Stock Rose %
Ascendas Reit
Entry: about 1.30 on 15 Nov 2008
Why: Entry can be initiated only after all related indexes and the candidate stock dropped by more than 50%: SP500 dropped by 50% on 14 Nov 2008, STI dropped by 50% on 13 Oct 2008, Reit index dropped by 50% on 17 Sep 2008, Ascendas Reit itself dropped by 50% on 30 Sep 2008. SP500 was the last required index that dropped by 50% on 14 Nov 2008, so one could buy Ascendas Reit for allocated amount (100%) on 15 Nov 2008.
Note one cannot buy the stock immediately after the stock dropped by 50% alone. In this case, Ascendas Reit continued dropping another 2 months while waiting for SP500 dropping by 50%! Must wait all indexes dropped by 50%!
Exit: about 2.70 on 06 Feb 2013 or use trailing stop after sector index Reit index rose by 200% on 05 Feb 2013.
Why:
Date MSCI World Index dropped 50% Date S&P500 dropped 50% Date STI dropped 50% Date Sector Index dropped 50% Date Stock dropped 50% Stock dropped % when S&P500 dropped 50% Stock dropped % when STI dropped 50% Stock dropped % when Sector Index dropped 50% Indexes Rose % Stock Rose %
Ascendas Reit
Entry: about 1.30 on 15 Nov 2008
Why: Entry can be initiated only after all related indexes and the candidate stock dropped by more than 50%: SP500 dropped by 50% on 14 Nov 2008, STI dropped by 50% on 13 Oct 2008, Reit index dropped by 50% on 17 Sep 2008, Ascendas Reit itself dropped by 50% on 30 Sep 2008. SP500 was the last required index that dropped by 50% on 14 Nov 2008, so one could buy Ascendas Reit for allocated amount (100%) on 15 Nov 2008.
Note one cannot buy the stock immediately after the stock dropped by 50% alone. In this case, Ascendas Reit continued dropping another 2 months while waiting for SP500 dropping by 50%! Must wait all indexes dropped by 50%!
Exit: about 2.70 on 06 Feb 2013 or use trailing stop after sector index Reit index rose by 200% on 05 Feb 2013.
Why:
08 November 2018
Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) market cycles provided 4 major opportunities in the past 31 years from 1987 to 2018
Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) market cycles provided 4 major opportunities in the past 31 years from 1987 to 2018.
Assume you got USD1m, your money was trippled to USD3m in the first opportunity; USD9m in the 2nd; USD27m in the 3rd; USD81m in the 4th!
Assume you got another 4 opportunities in the coming 31 years, what will happen?
What will happen if you use a margin of 300% in each opportunity?
So my friend, do not worry too much. Even if you got USD100k only now, you could have USD8.1m after 31 years!
Long Term Investment Strategy:
Buy the bluest stocks at 100% of planned amount after STI drops by 50% from high; buy another 50% with margin after STI drops by 60%; buy another 25% with margin after STI drops by 70%.
All of following conditions must be met before long term buying.
MSCI World Market Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient world wide)
S&P 500 dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure US drop is significant and sufficient thus does not affect other countries especially the country you are in)
STI Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient country wide thus does not affect the sector you are in)
Sector Index of the stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient sector wide thus does not affect the stocks you are in)
Stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient)
Check past 30 to 50 years of chart history of the candidate stocks (usually coming from the national stock index component companies) and select those stocks that rose the most in percentage (much much more than the index growth) in every bull market from the bear market bottom; (To makke sure you are able to outperform the index)
Target price: rising by at least 200% from the bear market bottom. (This is the minimum target, do not consider profit taking before this price)
Assume you got USD1m, your money was trippled to USD3m in the first opportunity; USD9m in the 2nd; USD27m in the 3rd; USD81m in the 4th!
Assume you got another 4 opportunities in the coming 31 years, what will happen?
What will happen if you use a margin of 300% in each opportunity?
So my friend, do not worry too much. Even if you got USD100k only now, you could have USD8.1m after 31 years!
Long Term Investment Strategy:
Buy the bluest stocks at 100% of planned amount after STI drops by 50% from high; buy another 50% with margin after STI drops by 60%; buy another 25% with margin after STI drops by 70%.
All of following conditions must be met before long term buying.
MSCI World Market Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient world wide)
S&P 500 dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure US drop is significant and sufficient thus does not affect other countries especially the country you are in)
STI Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient country wide thus does not affect the sector you are in)
Sector Index of the stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient sector wide thus does not affect the stocks you are in)
Stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient)
Check past 30 to 50 years of chart history of the candidate stocks (usually coming from the national stock index component companies) and select those stocks that rose the most in percentage (much much more than the index growth) in every bull market from the bear market bottom; (To makke sure you are able to outperform the index)
Target price: rising by at least 200% from the bear market bottom. (This is the minimum target, do not consider profit taking before this price)
Labels: Back Test, Charts, Historical Teachings, History, Margin, plan, STI ETF, Stock Trading System, Thoughts, Value Investing, Warren Buffett
