31 March 2014
不失资金管理原则
期货风险类型较为复杂，传统意义上，大家普遍认可的一个标准是从保证金使用比率的角度来进行控制。1987年世界期货投资比赛冠军安德列·布施先生(Mr. Andreas Bosch)的资金管理秘诀，实用性很强，国内很多实战高手也采用类似的方法。如果你经过很长时间的使用与比较，就会有所体会。下面就是布施先生关于资金控制方法的经验之谈。
第一个原则是，你一定要有一个科学明智的资金管理方法，通常我们会讨论：用百分之几的资金来做保证金？拿出多少钱去承担风险？
因为使用止损措施，所以我们应该知道自己冒了多大的风险。在交易中，布施会使用几种方法：一种是正常方法，一种是积极方法，一种是保守方法。
正常方法，就是当市况一切正常，布施会拿出5%的钱来承担风险，比如账户上有10万元，就拿出5000元，若每次亏损控制在600元以内，就可以亏8次。也就是说，布施每次下止损单时，如果只允许亏600元的话，可以有8次入市的机会。
根据布施的原则，如果账户亏5%，只剩95000元，就要变成保守账户了。一个保守账户只拿2.5%用于承担风险，直到资金总额恢复原来的10万块钱。记住，如果你很久都没赚到大钱的话，那虽然不太妙，但你仍然“活”着。如果亏光了，那你就彻底完蛋了，一切都结束了。
要赢钱的话，投资者就一定要冒险，风险大小视资金数额而定。比如，有10万块钱，拿出5%，赚了5000块的话，那么就可以变成积极性账户。现在，你可以动用的钱等于6%的资金加20%利润。也就是100000×6%＋5000×20%，等于7000块了。每赚5%时，就增加1%作为积极性的支配资金。比如，客户赚到13万块钱的时候，10%账户金额＋20%利润＝13万×10%＋3万×20%＝19000块，13万块钱中拿出1.9万块，这样我们就能有30多次的入市机会了，现在客户所冒的风险仅由他的利润来承担了，并不是本金。
1987年，布施赢得世界冠军，用的就是这种方法。他是在1月2日拿到客户的200万块钱，接着用自己的理论系统炒作了12个月，得到了20倍的利润。在这里要特别提到的是，布施第一个月我亏损了18%。因为开头就处于劣势，所以他把账户调整为保守模式，做起来很闷。当他打平的时候，就转向积极的模式，投资额持续增大，因为积累的利润让可以让他加码更多的头寸，所以增长越来越快。这个原则告诉大家有3种处理资金的态度。
第二个原则是资金管理的比例要前后保持一致，在相同时段用同样的比例，因为交易是一项投资和事业性的决策，这可以帮助我们较容易地生存下来。假如你是一个很差劲的炒家，但只要你一直保持只亏2%的限度，你就可以生存很长时间。布施另外常用的一个原则是：如果任何一个账户亏损超过25%，就停止交易。他从未停过任何一个账户。并不是说这种管理模式能对投资者的资金得到100%的保障，重要的是，它使你认识到你目前处事的方法是正确的，决策是对的。
布施先生的风险控制方法的设计思路是基于最基本的资金变化，看似其貌不扬，其实实用性很强。参与期货投资需要一种激情，每个人选择的风险度要以不影响自己的思维为佳，任何时候，都要让自己的大脑保持清醒活跃状态。
第一个原则是，你一定要有一个科学明智的资金管理方法，通常我们会讨论：用百分之几的资金来做保证金？拿出多少钱去承担风险？
因为使用止损措施，所以我们应该知道自己冒了多大的风险。在交易中，布施会使用几种方法：一种是正常方法，一种是积极方法，一种是保守方法。
正常方法，就是当市况一切正常，布施会拿出5%的钱来承担风险，比如账户上有10万元，就拿出5000元，若每次亏损控制在600元以内，就可以亏8次。也就是说，布施每次下止损单时，如果只允许亏600元的话，可以有8次入市的机会。
根据布施的原则，如果账户亏5%，只剩95000元，就要变成保守账户了。一个保守账户只拿2.5%用于承担风险，直到资金总额恢复原来的10万块钱。记住，如果你很久都没赚到大钱的话，那虽然不太妙，但你仍然“活”着。如果亏光了，那你就彻底完蛋了，一切都结束了。
要赢钱的话，投资者就一定要冒险，风险大小视资金数额而定。比如，有10万块钱，拿出5%，赚了5000块的话，那么就可以变成积极性账户。现在，你可以动用的钱等于6%的资金加20%利润。也就是100000×6%＋5000×20%，等于7000块了。每赚5%时，就增加1%作为积极性的支配资金。比如，客户赚到13万块钱的时候，10%账户金额＋20%利润＝13万×10%＋3万×20%＝19000块，13万块钱中拿出1.9万块，这样我们就能有30多次的入市机会了，现在客户所冒的风险仅由他的利润来承担了，并不是本金。
1987年，布施赢得世界冠军，用的就是这种方法。他是在1月2日拿到客户的200万块钱，接着用自己的理论系统炒作了12个月，得到了20倍的利润。在这里要特别提到的是，布施第一个月我亏损了18%。因为开头就处于劣势，所以他把账户调整为保守模式，做起来很闷。当他打平的时候，就转向积极的模式，投资额持续增大，因为积累的利润让可以让他加码更多的头寸，所以增长越来越快。这个原则告诉大家有3种处理资金的态度。
第二个原则是资金管理的比例要前后保持一致，在相同时段用同样的比例，因为交易是一项投资和事业性的决策，这可以帮助我们较容易地生存下来。假如你是一个很差劲的炒家，但只要你一直保持只亏2%的限度，你就可以生存很长时间。布施另外常用的一个原则是：如果任何一个账户亏损超过25%，就停止交易。他从未停过任何一个账户。并不是说这种管理模式能对投资者的资金得到100%的保障，重要的是，它使你认识到你目前处事的方法是正确的，决策是对的。
布施先生的风险控制方法的设计思路是基于最基本的资金变化，看似其貌不扬，其实实用性很强。参与期货投资需要一种激情，每个人选择的风险度要以不影响自己的思维为佳，任何时候，都要让自己的大脑保持清醒活跃状态。
Labels: Risk Management
30 March 2014
投机的九大要诀
真正的有钱人对金钱持非常严肃的态度，即便是拿来投机也要小心睿智，物尽其用。这里的投机并不是指非理性的赌博，而是指为了追求更高收益而采取的市场投资行为。卡西研究所资深分析师Louis James总结了富豪们投机成功的9个秘诀。
秘诀1：要有逆势交易的胆识
人人都知道要“低买高卖”，但说起来容易做起来难。要想真正做到这一点，你需要善于发现哪些产品或商品人们都想投资或觉得有必要投资，但由于周期性或一些其他的原因暂时没人愿意买。当大多数人觉得有必要买但却不愿买时，你的机会就来了。这就是逆势交易的窍门。这看起来很简单，好像人人都能做到。但事实上这种逆势交易的机会并不会自动出现，需要你自己去发现。大多数人都很难做出足够独立的思考和判断，并敢于做出大多数人认为很危险的决定。所以，上天只眷顾那些有胆识的人。
秘诀2：成功需要自律
当然，成功需要的不仅仅是勇气。如果你很勇敢但不够谨慎，你还是可能从悬崖上掉下去。所以，你必须对市场的波动做出预判，并将其转化成自己的优势。并严格遵循退出策略。一个成功的投资者需要很多策略，但最重要的要数买入策略和卖出策略，这样你就不会买得太多，或者卖得太少。
秘诀3：不要感情用事
一个成功的投资者需要遵循理性的指引，避免在恐惧或狂喜中偏离最初的计划。当你重仓投资股票下跌时，你会体验到非常真切的恐惧。这种恐慌情绪会让你在本应该加仓时选择卖出。同样的，当股票大涨，你和朋友击掌相庆时，你往往会产生继续全仓持有的冲动，而全然不顾该股票已经不再处于低估状态的事实。于是原本到手的收益就会不经意间从你指尖流走。
秘诀4：相信直觉
相信直觉和之前几条似乎自相矛盾，其实不然。并不是说要让感情压倒逻辑，而是说要倾听你的感觉，尤其当你见到你投资的公司的管理人员或阅读他们财报的时候。“人”（People）是Doug Casey股票估值8P理论最重要的环节，如果一个公司的CEO看起来像一个二手车推销员，那么你可以从中读出些什么。如果一份财报的新闻稿中省略了关键的数字或者看起来像是在锦上添花，那么你或许该当心。你在你所专注的行业积累的经验越多，你的直觉就越准确。如果报纸上将某只股票吹得天花乱坠，但你却没有听从内心的警告，投资该股票却亏了钱，没什么比这更加令人失望的了。
秘诀5：洞悉表象背后的利益
作为一个投资者，你要明白所有人都有他自己的角度。他们的利益可能会和你一致，但你不能认为这是理所当然。要时刻明白你是在和谁说话，他们的利益可能是什么，这很重要。即便面对信誉很好的人也该如此。如果你研究矿业，那么你该知道，一个矿从勘探、生产到回收，每一个环节都有许多问题要解决。但经纪商想赚佣金，会议组织者想给大家带来愉悦，黄金交易商想要增加产量，新闻记者想要糊口……多问问你自己，他们的钱从哪里来，他们的利益与你是否一致，与他们所报道的公司是否一致等。
秘诀6：趋势是你的朋友
没有人能预知未来，但你只要足够勤奋，就能够了解世界的趋势并预测出相应的结果。如果你洞悉了真实的趋势（至少有大量证据支持该趋势），它就会像罗盘或指南针一样为你指路，即便市场一片混乱、洪水滔天。了解你正在顺势交易非常重要，重要数据的支持也能增加你的勇气。记住，价格可能会波动，但价格并不意味着价值。如果你对趋势的判断是正确的，它将成为你的朋友。而且，选择正确的趋势方向，比选择正确的入场时间要容易得多。
秘诀7：用你输得起的钱来投机
这和前面几条在逻辑上是一致的。如果你把家里买房或孩子读书的钱拿去冒险，你几乎不可能保持冷静和自律。正如Doug所说：用10%的资产去冲击100%的回报，要远好于用100%的资产冲击10%的收益。
秘诀8：克服市场的随机性
考虑到市场投机存在内在风险，你应该尽量克服市场的随机性。如果你做不到这一点，还是不要玩了。以下几种方法可以达到这一点：投注拥有良好业务记录的公司，当市场将公司调整为卖出状态时买入；做详细的尽职调查（虽然大多数投资者都不堪其扰），或委托你信任的人替你来做。
秘诀9：你不能吻遍所有女孩
这是Doug的名言之一，虽然道理很浅显，但却是许多粗心的投机者最容易犯的错误。当你看到了一个梦幻般的故事或一只大涨的股票，却与它失之交臂，你会心有不甘。但如果你斗胆重仓跟进，那么你之前的所有收益可能会全部被抹平。你不能吻遍所有女孩，如果你试着这么做，就会陷入麻烦。幸运的是，机会在市场里有的是，如果错过了也不必太惋惜。耐心等待，你总能找到姑娘跳下一支舞。（文章作者为卡西研究所分析师Louis James，卡西研究所由传奇投资者道格·卡西（Doug Casey）创办）
Labels: Stock Trading System
29 March 2014
ENZL
limit sell order filled at 42.99 with profit.
Labels: Live Trading Records
27 March 2014
HON
buy limit order filled at 91.37.
Labels: Live Trading Records
24 March 2014
ENDP
limit buy order filled at 70.24.
Labels: Live Trading Records
OIH
sell limit order filled at 49.30 with profit.
Labels: Live Trading Records
美第一夫人米歇尔制定的严厉家规
奥巴马的女儿玛利亚和萨莎，行为举止格外端庄得体。《纽约时报》为此挖出了几条奥巴马夫人米歇尔的家规。这些家规，当然不能保证培养出杰出的女儿来。但是，毕竟米歇尔是位受了一流教育、并把自己主要的精力投入到孩子教育上的母亲。
第一，每次出门旅行，不管学校是否要求，都必须写一篇旅行报告，讲讲自己看到了什么。我一向认为，写作是帮助思考、观察的最好武器。有个故事说，一位世界著名的海洋生物学家收了个博士，年轻人第一天来到实验室，得到的任务是观察一条鱼，并报告其所有的特征。他半个小时就大功告成，结果导师直摇头，说他什么都看不到。反复几次，导师还是摇头，说他目不识泰山。直到他最后开始画那条鱼，才发现有那么多东西自己居然没看到！写作对于思想和观察而言，也是如此。
第二，平时不许使用科技产品。奥巴马14岁的大女儿，也只有周末才能动手机。两个女儿不到周末不能看电视，计算机只能在做作业时才用。在苹果产品成为青年时尚的今天，这样的规矩十分重要。要知道，硅谷那些高科技工程师，往往把自己的孩子送进禁止使用计算机的“低科技”学校。真正的创造，还是要徒手培养。
第三，玛利亚和萨莎必须参加两种体育训练。一种是她们自己挑选的，一种是米歇尔规定的。理由是：你不仅要体会干自己喜欢的事情的乐趣，还要知道怎么干自己不喜欢的事并不断进步。这在当今过分以孩子为中心的教育风潮中，实在是个好规矩。
第四，孩子们必须吃完蔬菜。如果说饱了，那就离开饭桌，不到吃饭时间不能回来。当然，“第一家庭”肯透露给媒体的，总是正面的东西，未必代表其教育的全部。这对于我们并无关紧要。重要的是上述几条规矩所体现的良性原则。在我看来，孩子之所以总喜欢电视和网上的垃圾，总爱吃垃圾食品，是因为他们的脑子和肚子里健康的东西太少。孩子像块海绵，不停地从周围的环境中吸收水分。而家长的职责，是给孩子提供充分的净水。
第一，每次出门旅行，不管学校是否要求，都必须写一篇旅行报告，讲讲自己看到了什么。我一向认为，写作是帮助思考、观察的最好武器。有个故事说，一位世界著名的海洋生物学家收了个博士，年轻人第一天来到实验室，得到的任务是观察一条鱼，并报告其所有的特征。他半个小时就大功告成，结果导师直摇头，说他什么都看不到。反复几次，导师还是摇头，说他目不识泰山。直到他最后开始画那条鱼，才发现有那么多东西自己居然没看到！写作对于思想和观察而言，也是如此。
第二，平时不许使用科技产品。奥巴马14岁的大女儿，也只有周末才能动手机。两个女儿不到周末不能看电视，计算机只能在做作业时才用。在苹果产品成为青年时尚的今天，这样的规矩十分重要。要知道，硅谷那些高科技工程师，往往把自己的孩子送进禁止使用计算机的“低科技”学校。真正的创造，还是要徒手培养。
第三，玛利亚和萨莎必须参加两种体育训练。一种是她们自己挑选的，一种是米歇尔规定的。理由是：你不仅要体会干自己喜欢的事情的乐趣，还要知道怎么干自己不喜欢的事并不断进步。这在当今过分以孩子为中心的教育风潮中，实在是个好规矩。
第四，孩子们必须吃完蔬菜。如果说饱了，那就离开饭桌，不到吃饭时间不能回来。当然，“第一家庭”肯透露给媒体的，总是正面的东西，未必代表其教育的全部。这对于我们并无关紧要。重要的是上述几条规矩所体现的良性原则。在我看来，孩子之所以总喜欢电视和网上的垃圾，总爱吃垃圾食品，是因为他们的脑子和肚子里健康的东西太少。孩子像块海绵，不停地从周围的环境中吸收水分。而家长的职责，是给孩子提供充分的净水。
Labels: Education
22 March 2014
ODP
sell stop order triggered, stopped out at 4.41 with 1R (1 unit of risk) loss.
Labels: Live Trading Records
20 March 2014
BAC
sell limit order filled at 17.58 with profit.
Labels: Live Trading Records
FFIV
sell limit order filled at 114.63 with profit.
Labels: Live Trading Records
19 March 2014
BIIB
sell limit order filled at 352.98 with profit.
Labels: Live Trading Records
TWC
buy limit order filled at 136.00.
Labels: Live Trading Records
13 March 2014
CIEN
buy limit order filled at 23.33 a few days ago.
Labels: Live Trading Records
12 March 2014
G3B
Limit sell order partially filled at 3.19. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought.
Will continue to sell progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays above 80; On the other hand, will buy progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays below 20 - New strategy.
Will continue to sell progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays above 80; On the other hand, will buy progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays below 20 - New strategy.
Labels: Live Trading Records
11 March 2014
G3B
Limit sell orders filled at 3.18 / 3.20. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought.
Will continue to sell progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays above 80; On the other hand, will buy progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays below 20 - New strategy.
Will continue to sell progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays above 80; On the other hand, will buy progressively every day as long as RSI 14 stays below 20 - New strategy.
Labels: Live Trading Records
10 March 2014
G3B
Limit sell order filled at 3.19. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought. Will continue to sell every day if RSI 14 stays above 80 - New strategy.
Labels: Live Trading Records
07 March 2014
G3B
Limit sell order filled at 3.18. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought. Will continue to sell every day if RSI 14 stays above 80 - New strategy.
Labels: Live Trading Records
06 March 2014
G3B
Limit sell orders filled at 3.16 / 3.18. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought. Will continue to sell every day if RSI 14 stays above 80 - New strategy.
Labels: Live Trading Records
05 March 2014
BAC
buy stop order filled at 17.009.
Labels: Live Trading Records
G3B
Limit sell orders filled at 3.16. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought. Will continue to sell every day if RSI 14 stays above 80 - New strategy.
Labels: Live Trading Records
Even Small Amounts of Anger Could Cause Heart Attacks or Strokes
A new study has come out that states even a small amount of anger could cause the human body to go down the path of having either a heart attack or a stroke. Besides this one, there have been very few research reports done which actually explored the connection between short anger bouts and cardiovascular occurrences in the hours that immediately follow. However, the findings are consistent with showing a direct cause and effect. However it is still not clear just how strong the risk is, stated the researchers in their report in the European Heart Journal.
The research study read that relative risks that were examined in this study showed that there was a higher chance of experiencing a cardiovascular incident after having an upsurge of anger among individuals at risk of a cardiovascular event. Yet since an anger episode might happen rarely and the effect period is brief, the total impact on such a disease affliction is actually very low. However if the anger bouts start to increase, these fleeting effects might start to add up, leading to bigger heart attacks impact on the body.
A number of smaller studies had looked at the association between anger and cardiovascular health, but this study wanted to discover the uniformity of the connection. The scientists studied various scenarios where anger had apparently led to heart attacks, strokes and ventricular arrhythmia within only two hours after the initial outbursts. In mutual results from nearly five situations, the chance of having a heart attack was nearly 4.75 percent higher in the hours after a flare-up. In the respective results of two other circumstances, the danger of having a stroke was not considerably elevated. Yet one study did show that there was some showing of intracranial hemorrhage and displayed the chance of stroke was actually somewhat higher in the first hour after a fit of anger. The risks were, of course, found to be higher for those individuals who had a larger chance of having some sort of cardiovascular episode to begin with.
In an editorial written by Suzanne Arnold, M.D., who works at a heart institute in Missouri, and some of her associates, they talked about some of the possible mechanisms that connect anger to cardiovascular happenings. They penned that through increases in circulating chemicals there can be a raised oxygen demand from the heart muscle, coronary spasms, and bigger platelet aggregability. The anger may cause temporary ischemia, disturbance of extra plaque and therefore increased thrombotic possibility. Such changes can then bring on heart attacks, strokes or some kind of irregular arrhythmias.
How researchers are able to advance forward in lessening the problem of such risk factors in individuals and how its impression on cardiovascular health is still up in the air. From the lessons that have been learned from attempting to treat depression after heart attacks, by treating anger separately is unlikely to help. Instead, a larger and more ample approach to treating both critical and long-lasting mental stress, and its related emotional stressors, is likely to be needed to help heal an angry heart.
It is believed by some physicians that beta-blockers might end up easing some of the negative concerns of angry bursts but that their use would be restricted by side effects. It was also mentioned that behavioral interventions which can help folks to diminish their outbursts and/or the additional biological stimulation could be one effective way of plummeting the health damage linked with angry flare-ups.
It is also believed that psychosocial skills training may lessen anger levels and the amount of the surges in blood pressure and heart rate which accompanied the situations of anger. The new study has come out that states even a small amount of anger could cause the human body to go down the path of having either a heart attack or a stroke.
The research study read that relative risks that were examined in this study showed that there was a higher chance of experiencing a cardiovascular incident after having an upsurge of anger among individuals at risk of a cardiovascular event. Yet since an anger episode might happen rarely and the effect period is brief, the total impact on such a disease affliction is actually very low. However if the anger bouts start to increase, these fleeting effects might start to add up, leading to bigger heart attacks impact on the body.
A number of smaller studies had looked at the association between anger and cardiovascular health, but this study wanted to discover the uniformity of the connection. The scientists studied various scenarios where anger had apparently led to heart attacks, strokes and ventricular arrhythmia within only two hours after the initial outbursts. In mutual results from nearly five situations, the chance of having a heart attack was nearly 4.75 percent higher in the hours after a flare-up. In the respective results of two other circumstances, the danger of having a stroke was not considerably elevated. Yet one study did show that there was some showing of intracranial hemorrhage and displayed the chance of stroke was actually somewhat higher in the first hour after a fit of anger. The risks were, of course, found to be higher for those individuals who had a larger chance of having some sort of cardiovascular episode to begin with.
In an editorial written by Suzanne Arnold, M.D., who works at a heart institute in Missouri, and some of her associates, they talked about some of the possible mechanisms that connect anger to cardiovascular happenings. They penned that through increases in circulating chemicals there can be a raised oxygen demand from the heart muscle, coronary spasms, and bigger platelet aggregability. The anger may cause temporary ischemia, disturbance of extra plaque and therefore increased thrombotic possibility. Such changes can then bring on heart attacks, strokes or some kind of irregular arrhythmias.
How researchers are able to advance forward in lessening the problem of such risk factors in individuals and how its impression on cardiovascular health is still up in the air. From the lessons that have been learned from attempting to treat depression after heart attacks, by treating anger separately is unlikely to help. Instead, a larger and more ample approach to treating both critical and long-lasting mental stress, and its related emotional stressors, is likely to be needed to help heal an angry heart.
It is believed by some physicians that beta-blockers might end up easing some of the negative concerns of angry bursts but that their use would be restricted by side effects. It was also mentioned that behavioral interventions which can help folks to diminish their outbursts and/or the additional biological stimulation could be one effective way of plummeting the health damage linked with angry flare-ups.
It is also believed that psychosocial skills training may lessen anger levels and the amount of the surges in blood pressure and heart rate which accompanied the situations of anger. The new study has come out that states even a small amount of anger could cause the human body to go down the path of having either a heart attack or a stroke.
Labels: Health
04 March 2014
G3B
Limit sell orders filled at 3.15 / 3.17. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought. Will continue to sell every day if RSI 14 stays above 80 - New strategy.
Labels: Live Trading Records
