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28 February 2014

 

G3B

Limit sell orders filled at 3.15 / 3.17. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought. Will continue to sell every day if RSI 14 stays above 80 - New strategy.

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APOL

limit buy order filled at 33.18.

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27 February 2014

 

G3B

Started to sell G3B in SCB at 3.15. RSI 14 exceeded 80, overbought. Will continue to sell every day if RSI 14 stays above 80 - New strategy..

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26 February 2014

 

How to Invest

Here is good article on how to invest. Used by a top trader....

Q: what is the appropriate strategy for retail investors?

A: As a general rule, there are two points to consider. Firstly, the strategy must not rely on having an edge in resources of time, knowledge and finance, as retail investors are weakest in these areas when compared to all other players. Secondly, such a strategy must necessarily be based on the patience to buy shares at basement prices on a non-leveraged basis with minimal transactions over an extended period.

Q: How can retail investors know when shares are at basement prices?

A: Shares will be at basement prices when bearish psychology is extreme and liquidity is tight in the following situations:

-The asset bubble bursts and strong economy tailspins into a recession like the recent Asian crisis

-The economy goes into a period of stagflation

-The economy in a depression with prevailing banking crisis.

-The market crashes due to special events eg Gulf War, 19 Oct 1987 (program trading), LTCM debacle, etc

Q: How do I improve my timing in order to buy shares at basement prices?

A: For situations where share prices are low due to a weaker economic cycle it is best to invest over a six to 12 month period. The initial investment should be 50% of capital, with 10% each subsequently over the intended period for the last 50%. The timing of the initial investment of 50% is crucial.Based on my experience it is best to buy on the day following the national government's admission that the economy is in a recession and gives a negative GDP forecast for the rest of the year. When this announcement is one that makes the front page of the national daily, then almost all the bad news has been discounted by the market.

For a market crash due to a special event it is normally right to commit 50% of capital on the same day of the event and the rest of the 50% within a week. Special event crash tends to be immediate and furious as institutional and retail investors all unload holdings aggressively yet simultaneously, thereby prices reach bottom very quickly.In the case of a banking crisis, the time to buy is when the government's plan to use public money to re-capitalize the banks, whether directly or indirectly through tax incentives aimed at the disposal of bad loans, is at the final stage.

Q: What type of shares should one buy?

A: Buy the top two of the best-managed institutions from each of the key sectors of banking, media, telecommunications, healthcare and computer software. These sectors tend to be essential and also have inherent oligopoly power.

Q: Is the investing going to be smooth sailing?

A: Absolutely not, especially at the initial phase of your buying spree. All your good friends including your dear spouse will think that you are crazy. They will say, "The market is getting lower, this is too dangerous, you can wait". And likely, in the next few days or weeks after buying, the market may indeed go lower, and you will look like a fool.But to want to buy at the absolute bottom is not possible. But to buy near the bottom is possible and can be made highly probable by this approach. Be prepared for some short-term psychological torture. But you need to buy. If not, you will watch and miss the opportunity altogether. Somehow in most cases, you will later look like the wisest man in town for having the courage to buy those shares. View it as short term pain, long term gain.

Q: When then should one take profits?

A: For shares bought resulting from a market crash due to special events (ie it is a one-off situation), one can take profits when profits are between 30% to 70% within a six months period.However, for shares bought as a result of an economic crisis or economic downturn one should keep them for years. Liquidation should only begin when the bull market is so obvious and in such a great rage that it sucks in all kinds of new retail players. The greater fool theory, unfortunately, always comes into play near the end of a new bull market cycle. Shares should be disposed gradually over a 24-month period as bull markets normally last much longer than expected.

Q: After taking profits, what should the investor do with the money?

A: Stay in cash until shares are at basement prices again. This strategy implies that when not invested one must hold cash and be patient even if the waiting period is long. In fact, one of the unprofitable "myths" that is frequently encouraged and practiced is that of continued deployment of capital to enhance returns.This approach usually means that when the opportunity comes for acquiring bargain basement shares you will not have the money. Instead you will be among those hurt by lower share prices. Rather, you should build up liquidity for deployment when market liquidity is tightest in order to make big money.

Q: How often can a retail investor reasonably be expected to participate in such an investment strategy?

A: Assuming a 35-year investment life, one can expect to participate in three to four complete economic cycles, with each cycle of about eight to 10 years, yielding returns of at least 100% over capital. With this approach, transaction costs will be at the barest minimum and any disruption to one's job will be almost non-existent, as the investor will be doing nothing most of the time.

During this period of 35 years, one who is patient and courageous will in addition be rewarded with about five event market crashes, which should yield at least 30% for each event. Therefore this strategy though on a day to day basis does not seem to bear anything, can be very profitable and consistent over the 35 years horizon.Be patient and be prepared, and you will come out tops in the investment arena. If you are not patient and prepared, the stock market will be an expensive place to find out who you are.

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牛刀:一线城市房价要跌去80%

一线城市房价为何要跌去80%

在全球只有我一个人完全准确的预测出:2014年2月5日,国际资本将会围剿人民币。正是在这一天开始,人民币出现持续大跌。这件事情让我感到深深的恐惧,绝非得意。在写作《中国通胀世界通缩》这本书时,我就曾在这本书的序中告诫读者:中国源于汇率断层的价格体系终有一天会被国际资本冲垮。现在这一天终于来到了。

人民币对内大幅贬值而对外却大幅升值,这种模式在上个世纪日本,拉美都出现过,无一不导致泡沫和泡沫的破灭,阿根廷泡沫破灭后,满街都是在哭泣的人,房子在不到半年的时候缩水80%;日本东京的公寓被誉为前景还有15年的房子从5亿日元跌倒1亿日元还无法脱手,到现在为止还在1亿日元那个价位。而中国不仅仅只是源于汇率断层的价格体系会被国际资本冲垮,而且政府的“进口加税出口退税”这种在全球独一无二的莫名其妙的征税模式,也将从此开始告别,因为这种模式完全是在鼓励最落后的生产力和资本套利。

在上海新浪华东地产频道任总经理的时候,佘山一个号称上海第一个超亿元的别墅请我去参观考察,兴之所至,我当然没有推辞。一到现场,全部考察完毕,我当时就笑了。你这个别墅放在纽约只值300万美元,放在西雅图华盛顿湖边只值200万美元,华盛顿湖边是西雅图的富人区,全球最富的人也只住500万到800万美元的别墅,上千万级美元的别墅少之又少,你这个别墅买一亿有人买吗?。他说有,而且有两个人订。

中国人是疯啦。这种疯狂在2009年央行印钞和美联储的QE后达到极致。开发商在唱涨,媒体在唱涨,政府在疯狂卖地,他们可曾会知道终有一天,在汇率模型发生变动的时候,人民币将会一泻千里?不过全中国财经评论人当中,只有我一人看出来这其中的奥妙,泡沫越大后果越大,因为泡沫越大所需货币就会越多,对美元贬值就越大。目前来说,继续沿用我在《货币狼烟》中涉及的模型,人民币最终将会跌倒20元。具体过程是:

第一、起步阶段:美元是缩减QE,引发美元集中出逃长三角珠三角和北京,现在人民币依然在狂跌,很顺利的跌倒6.0919,6.09 这个价位横盘了很久,有非常的动力存在,这个价位在房价泡沫破灭的第一阶段的时候是第一个价位,因为房价泡沫破灭一定伴随着货币的大跌。这个价位突破后的第二个价位是6.30。6.30突破后的第三个价位是6.80,这个时候,一线城市房价将会狂跌。

第二、攻击阶段:美元是退出QE,引发对冲基金发起对中国的做空行动,操盘团队可能不仅仅只是巴菲特团队,索罗斯最近也在虎视眈眈,这会影响到全球对冲基金和量子基金,鲁比尼可能不会干这个。首先攻击的一定是汇率,如果成功,这个时候人民币汇率会在6.8元之后再继续下跌倒8.6元至12.6元之间,一线城市房价全面见底,中国城市地价开始回归。现在的城市地价完全是炒作起来的,不是中国城市应有的地价。

第三、清算阶段:美元是加息,究竟是加一次还是几次根本不清楚,视中国的真正的GDP是多少才能定。中国GDP除了泡沫以外,很多是无用的,也有很多虚假的,更有出口数据一直在造假,这是全球都知道的事,在这个阶段将会现形。那个时候,中国可能不再是什么第二大经济体,可能连第五都成为问题。至于汇率到什么程度,请看我的书《货币狼烟》,20元吧。至此,中国货币泡沫破灭。

而所有达到极致的资产价格最后终将会跌回原位,这是很多发展中国家的宿命。中国完全依赖货币的不断超发拉动的经济增长已经到头了。这个过程结束后,中国经济的本质就展示出来,一线城市房价将会跌去80%,这几乎是毫无疑问的。

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25 February 2014

 

彼得.林奇的25条黄金规则

彼得.林奇是个投资奇才,作为一个著名的基金管理人,他的思维更现代、投资技巧更新颖复杂,但我们从以下投资规则中能够看出,在骨子里他依然是与格雷厄姆、巴菲特一脉相承的基本面分析派:

1.投资是令人激动和愉快的事,但如果不作准备,投资也是一件危险的事情。

2.投资法宝不是得自华尔街投资专家,它是你已经拥有的。你可以利用自己的经验,投资于你已经熟悉的行业或企业,你能够战胜专家。

3.过去30年中,股票市场由职业炒家主宰,与公众的观点相反,这个现象使业余投资者更容易获胜,你可以不理会职业炒家而战胜市场。

4.每支股票背后都是一家公司,去了解这家公司在干什么

5.通常,在几个月甚至几年内公司业绩与股票价格无关。但长期而言,两者之间100%相关。这个差别是赚钱的关键,要耐心并持有好股票

6.你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它,“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠。

7.远射几乎总是脱靶。

8.持有股票就像养育孩子,不要超出力所能及的范围。业余选段人大概有时间追踪8~12家公司。不要同时拥有5种以上的股票。

9.如果你找不到一支有吸引力的股票,就把钱存进银行。

10.永远不要投资于你不了解其财务状况的公司。买股票最大的损失来自于那些财务状况不佳的公司。仔细研究公司的财务报表,确认公司不会破产

11.避开热门行业的热门股票。最好的公司也会有不景气的时候,增长停滞的行业里有大赢家。

12.对于小公司,最好等到它们有利润之后再投资。

13.如果你想投资麻烦丛生的行业,就买有生存能力的公司,并且要等到这个行业出现复苏的信号时再买进。

14.如果你用1000元钱买股票,最大的损失就是1000元。但是如果你有足够的耐心,你可以获得1000元甚至5000元的收益。个人投资者可以集中投资几家绩优企业,而基金经理却必须分散投资。持股太多会失去集中的优势,持有几个大赢家终生受益。

15.在每个行业和每个地区,注意观察的业余投资者都能在职业炒家之前发现有巨大增长潜力的企业。

16.股市的下跌如科罗拉多州1月份的暴风雪一样是正常现象,如果你有所准备,它就不会伤害你。每次下跌都是大好机会,你可以挑选被风暴吓走的投资者放弃的廉价股票

17.每个人都有足够的智力在股市赚钱,但不是每个人都有必要的耐力。如果你每遇到恐慌就想抛掉存货,你就应避开股市或股票基金。

18.总有一些事情需要操心。不要理会周末的焦虑和媒介最新的恐慌性言论。卖掉股票是因为公司的基本情况恶化,而不是因为天要塌下来。

19.没有人能够预测利率、经济形势及股票市场的走向,不要去搞这些预测。集中精力了解你所投资的公司情况。

20.分析卅家公司,你会发现1家基本情况超过预期;分析刘家,就能发现5家。在股票市场总能找到意外的惊喜——公司成就被华尔街低估的股票。

21.如果不研究任何公司,你在股市成功的机会,就如同打牌赌博时,不看自己的牌而打赢的机会一样。

22.当你持有好公司股票时,时间站在你这一边,你要有耐心——即使你在头5年中错过了沃尔玛特股票,但在下一个5年它仍是大赢家。

23.如果你有足够的耐性,但却既没有时间也没有能力与精力去自己搞研究,那就投资共同基金吧。这时,投资分散化是个好主意,你该持有几种不同的基金:增长型、价值型、小企业型、大企业型,等等。投资6家同类共同基金不是分散化。

24.在全球主要股票市场中,美国股市过去10年的总回报排名第八。通过海外基金,把一部分投资分散到海外,可以分享其他国家经济快速增长的好处。

25.长期而言,一个经过挑选的股票投资组合总是胜过债券或货币市场账户,而一个很差的股票投资组合还不如把钱放在坐垫下。

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X

stopped out at 24.29.

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22 February 2014

 

NOV

buy limit order filled at 75.01 last night.

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20 February 2014

 

FFIV

buy stop limit order filled at 109.95.

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WM

Stopped out at 40.86.

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18 February 2014

 

WM

Limit buy order filled at 41.79.

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14 February 2014

 

美满婚姻的秘诀是什么?每周做爱3次每月吵架3次

文章来源: 东方日报 于 2014-02-13 20:26:48 - 新闻取自各大新闻媒体,新闻内容并不代表本网立场!
打印本新闻
(被阅读 858次) Tweet  今日碰巧是中国与西方的「双料」情人节,是否已经想好如何和情人庆祝?其实不少人相爱,最终都是希望能结成夫妇,长相厮守。美国一间调查公司最近访问了当地一千名已婚者,发现一段快乐婚姻的秘诀,是需要符合每月争执三次、每周说「我爱你」十次等多个条件。

调查公司指婚后生活有赖双方的承诺及努力,任何一方没准备好,都会发觉置身痛苦关系中。过半受访者在婚前是朋友,平均相恋三年才结婚。当中他们认为接纳、信任、诚实及尊重是最重要的四点。在一段关系中,受访者认为要懂得接受对方的缺点;其次是信任另一半及坦诚沟通。受访者亦认为即使相爱多久,亦要懂得放下身段,适时开口说对不起。

美满婚姻秘诀

1.每周向对方说「我爱你」10次

2.一星期亲吻10次、拥抱7次

3.每周进行3次性行为

4.沟通至上,每月进行10次有深度而有意义的对话

5.每月外出吃饭或夜间约会3次

6.床头吵架床尾和,每月争执3次

7.巧花心思,每月炮制3个惊喜

8.每月找两晚各自与朋友外出

9.每年一同去旅行两次

10.拥有3个共同嗜好和兴趣

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ATK

buy limit order filled at 132.77. Small double bottoms breakout a few days ago.

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12 February 2014

 

X

buy stop limit order filled at 26.11. Small double bottoms breakout.

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BIIB

buy stop order filled at 321.53. Small double bottoms breakout.

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11 February 2014

 

ACE

buy stop filled at 95.42. Small double bottoms breakout.

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G3B - Nikko AM STI ETF100

bought at 3.06 on 10 Feb 2014.

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09 February 2014

 

Singapore CDP Dividend Direct Crediting Service

Plan to transfer all STI ETF (ES3) units bought under Phillip SBP so far to CDP for following purposes,

a CDP is safer than Phillip;

b Save cost. CDP has no charge on dividend distribution to unit holders(refer item 8 below) while Phillip charges 1% of dividend amount with minimum charge of S$1 and maximum charge of S$50. Although the transfer will cost S$10.70 per counter(inclusive of GST) applicable to both Phillip and CDP (luckily, I have only one counter, STI ETF, at this moment), the cost savings will be much more than that in the long term. In my case, cost saving will be positive in the first year after transfer.

Below is found from CDP website,

"1.What is DCS?
Direct Crediting Service, or DCS, allows you to credit your Singapore-dollar dividend payments or other cash distributions directly into your designated bank account.


2.Why should I apply for DCS?
You'll enjoy greater convenience as you do not need to wait for your dividend cheques to arrive by mail, and to deposit them at your bank. You also begin to earn interest from the date of payment.


3.How can I apply for DCS?
You can apply DCS through your stockbroking company, or post the duly signed application form to CDP.


4.How will I know if my application has been approved or rejected?
Once your bank has approved your application, we'll notify you by post. Your bank account number will also be reflected in your CDP monthly or year-end statements. We will also inform you by post if your application is rejected.


5.How will I be informed of any dividends paid?
You will receive a Monthly Summary of Payments with details of the payments. This Monthly Summary of Payments will be sent to you whenever there are payments made to you for the month. There will also be a transaction code "CDP" on your bank statement to indicate the amount credited into your bank account.


6.What will happen to my dividends if the payment is not credited into my bank account?
If we are unable to credit the dividend payment into your bank account, we will issue a cheque instead.


7.How do I change the designated bank account?
Please complete the DCS form and mail in to CDP.


8.Are there any charges?
Currently, DCS is a free service extended to our account-holders."

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08 February 2014

 

PXD

buy stop filled at 184.29. Small double bottoms breakout.

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07 February 2014

 

ODP

buy stop filled at 5.16. Small double bottoms breakout.

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SYK

buy stop filled at 78.65. Small double bottoms breakout.

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YHOO

buy stop filled at 36.34.

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06 February 2014

 

G3B - Nikko AM STI ETF100

Bought G3B at 3.02. RSI 14 below 20, oversold

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05 February 2014

 

MCD

stopped out at 92.6.

To continue to test this trading method with smaller risk value.

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G3B - Nikko AM STI ETF100

Bought G3B at 3.02/3.01. RSI 14 below 20, oversold

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04 February 2014

 

G3B - Nikko AM STI ETF100

Bought G3B at 3.04/3.02/3.00. RSI 14 below 20, oversold.

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MCD

Buy stop MCD at 94.56.

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ABT

Buy stop at 36.92 and stop loss (sell stop) at 35.87.

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G3B - Nikko AM STI ETF100

Bought G3B at 3.06/3.06/3.04.

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