24 September 2013
Market likely to drop significantly in coming weeks since double divergences have been identified between MACD and index price
Market will be likely to drop significantly in coming weeks since it is overbought (RSI 14 is greater than 80) and double divergences have been identified
between MACD and S&P 500, S&P 500 produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times; Evening star appeared on the daily S&P 500 Future chart, shooting star appeared on the daily and weekly S&P 500 Future chart;
between MACD and Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Industrial Average produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times; Evening star appeared on the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Future chart, shooting star appeared on the weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Future chart;
between MACD and NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ Composite produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ 100 produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and DAX, DAX produced new highs in September 2013 but MACD could not do so;
between MACD and CAC 40, CAC 40 produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and FTSE MIB, FTSE MIB produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and ALL ORDINARIES, ALL ORDINARIES produced new highs in September 2013 but MACD could not do so.
Therefore, the market may give me another opportunity to profit from the potential panic in coming weeks due probably to fierce fighting between Obama and the Congress regards increasing of debt ceiling, and inevitable tapering of FED quantitative easing (money printing).
between MACD and S&P 500, S&P 500 produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times; Evening star appeared on the daily S&P 500 Future chart, shooting star appeared on the daily and weekly S&P 500 Future chart;
between MACD and Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Industrial Average produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times; Evening star appeared on the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Future chart, shooting star appeared on the weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Future chart;
between MACD and NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ Composite produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ 100 produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and DAX, DAX produced new highs in September 2013 but MACD could not do so;
between MACD and CAC 40, CAC 40 produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and FTSE MIB, FTSE MIB produced new highs in both August and September 2013 but MACD could not in both times;
between MACD and ALL ORDINARIES, ALL ORDINARIES produced new highs in September 2013 but MACD could not do so.
Therefore, the market may give me another opportunity to profit from the potential panic in coming weeks due probably to fierce fighting between Obama and the Congress regards increasing of debt ceiling, and inevitable tapering of FED quantitative easing (money printing).
Labels: Risk Management, Thoughts
20 September 2013
Buffett's best quotes
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 1989
You don't have to be a genius to invest well.
ebravolosada / Flickr
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ."
Source: Warren Buffet Speaks, via msnbc.msn
But, master the basics.
North Carolina Digital Heritage
"To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1996
Don't buy a stock just because everyone hates it.
trix0r via Flickr
"None of this means, however, that a business or stock is an intelligent purchase simply because it is unpopular; a contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What's required is thinking rather than polling. Unfortunately, Bertrand Russell's observation about life in general applies with unusual force in the financial world: "Most men would rather die than think. Many do."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1990
Bad things aren't obvious when times are good.
tavopp / Flickr
"After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2001
Always be liquid.
Flickr / noahwesley
"I have pledged – to you, the rating agencies and myself – to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow’s obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night’s sleep for the chance of extra profits."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2008
The best time to buy a company is when it's in trouble.
Nightly Business News via YouTube
"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble...We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."
Source: Businessweek, 1999
Stocks have always come out of crises.
Wikimedia Commons
A soup kitchen in 1936
"Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."
Source: The New York Times, October 16, 2008
Don't be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns
Kent Freeman / Flickr
"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities ¾ that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future ¾ will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2000
Think long-term.
JuditK / Flickr
"Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1996
Forever is a good holding period.
m.a.r.c. / flickr
"When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 1988
Buy businesses that can be run by idiots.
"I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."
Source: Business Insider
Be greedy when others are fearful.
Flickr / martj
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2004
You don't have to move at every opportunity.
adwriter / Flickr
"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'"
Source: The Tao of Warren Buffett via Engineeringnews.com
Ignore politics and macroeconomics when picking stocks.
wikimedia
"We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%.
"But, surprise - none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in Ben Graham's investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, then, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1994
The more you trade, the more you underperform.
Public domain
"Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.” If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases."
Source: Letters to shareholders, 2005
Price and value are not the same
Net Efekt / Flickr, CC
"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2008
There are no bonus points for complicated investments.
stuartpilbrow via flickr
"Our investments continue to be few in number and simple in concept: The truly big investment idea can usually be explained in a short paragraph. We like a business with enduring competitive advantages that is run by able and owner-oriented people. When these attributes exist, and when we can make purchases at sensible prices, it is hard to go wrong (a challenge we periodically manage to overcome).
"Investors should remember that their scorecard is not computed using Olympic-diving methods: Degree-of-difficulty doesn’t count. If you are right about a business whole value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand and enduring, the payoff is the same as if you had correctly analyzed an investment alternative characterized by many constantly shifting and complex variables."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1994
A good businessperson makes a good investor.
PYMNTS.com via Vimeo
"I am a better investor because I am a businessman, and a better businessman because I am an investor."
Source: Forbes.com - Thoughts On The Business Life
Higher taxes aren't a dealbreaker.
MoneyBlogNewz / Flickr
"SUPPOSE that an investor you admire and trust comes to you with an investment idea. “This is a good one,” he says enthusiastically. “I’m in it, and I think you should be, too.”
Would your reply possibly be this? “Well, it all depends on what my tax rate will be on the gain you’re saying we’re going to make. If the taxes are too high, I would rather leave the money in my savings account, earning a quarter of 1 percent.” Only in Grover Norquist’s imagination does such a response exist."
Source: New York Times
Companies that don't change can be great investments.
By Jono Haysom on Flickr
"Our approach is very much profiting from lack of change rather than from change. With Wrigley chewing gum, it's the lack of change that appeals to me. I don't think it is going to be hurt by the Internet. That's the kind of business I like."
Source: Businessweek, 1999
This is the most important thing.
Wikipeda
"Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don't forget rule No. 1"
Source: The Tao of Warren Buffett
Time will tell.
pepe50 / Flickr
"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre."
Source: Letters to shareholders 1989
BONUS: On Wall Street advice
Flickr/jiazi
"Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls-Royce to get advice from those who take the subway."
Source: The Tao of Warren Buffett
Source: Letter to shareholders, 1989
You don't have to be a genius to invest well.
ebravolosada / Flickr
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ."
Source: Warren Buffet Speaks, via msnbc.msn
But, master the basics.
North Carolina Digital Heritage
"To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1996
Don't buy a stock just because everyone hates it.
trix0r via Flickr
"None of this means, however, that a business or stock is an intelligent purchase simply because it is unpopular; a contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What's required is thinking rather than polling. Unfortunately, Bertrand Russell's observation about life in general applies with unusual force in the financial world: "Most men would rather die than think. Many do."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1990
Bad things aren't obvious when times are good.
tavopp / Flickr
"After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2001
Always be liquid.
Flickr / noahwesley
"I have pledged – to you, the rating agencies and myself – to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow’s obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night’s sleep for the chance of extra profits."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2008
The best time to buy a company is when it's in trouble.
Nightly Business News via YouTube
"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble...We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."
Source: Businessweek, 1999
Stocks have always come out of crises.
Wikimedia Commons
A soup kitchen in 1936
"Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."
Source: The New York Times, October 16, 2008
Don't be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns
Kent Freeman / Flickr
"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities ¾ that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future ¾ will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2000
Think long-term.
JuditK / Flickr
"Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1996
Forever is a good holding period.
m.a.r.c. / flickr
"When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 1988
Buy businesses that can be run by idiots.
"I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."
Source: Business Insider
Be greedy when others are fearful.
Flickr / martj
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2004
You don't have to move at every opportunity.
adwriter / Flickr
"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'"
Source: The Tao of Warren Buffett via Engineeringnews.com
Ignore politics and macroeconomics when picking stocks.
wikimedia
"We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%.
"But, surprise - none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in Ben Graham's investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, then, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1994
The more you trade, the more you underperform.
Public domain
"Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.” If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases."
Source: Letters to shareholders, 2005
Price and value are not the same
Net Efekt / Flickr, CC
"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."
Source: Letter to shareholders, 2008
There are no bonus points for complicated investments.
stuartpilbrow via flickr
"Our investments continue to be few in number and simple in concept: The truly big investment idea can usually be explained in a short paragraph. We like a business with enduring competitive advantages that is run by able and owner-oriented people. When these attributes exist, and when we can make purchases at sensible prices, it is hard to go wrong (a challenge we periodically manage to overcome).
"Investors should remember that their scorecard is not computed using Olympic-diving methods: Degree-of-difficulty doesn’t count. If you are right about a business whole value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand and enduring, the payoff is the same as if you had correctly analyzed an investment alternative characterized by many constantly shifting and complex variables."
Source: Chairman's Letter, 1994
A good businessperson makes a good investor.
PYMNTS.com via Vimeo
"I am a better investor because I am a businessman, and a better businessman because I am an investor."
Source: Forbes.com - Thoughts On The Business Life
Higher taxes aren't a dealbreaker.
MoneyBlogNewz / Flickr
"SUPPOSE that an investor you admire and trust comes to you with an investment idea. “This is a good one,” he says enthusiastically. “I’m in it, and I think you should be, too.”
Would your reply possibly be this? “Well, it all depends on what my tax rate will be on the gain you’re saying we’re going to make. If the taxes are too high, I would rather leave the money in my savings account, earning a quarter of 1 percent.” Only in Grover Norquist’s imagination does such a response exist."
Source: New York Times
Companies that don't change can be great investments.
By Jono Haysom on Flickr
"Our approach is very much profiting from lack of change rather than from change. With Wrigley chewing gum, it's the lack of change that appeals to me. I don't think it is going to be hurt by the Internet. That's the kind of business I like."
Source: Businessweek, 1999
This is the most important thing.
Wikipeda
"Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don't forget rule No. 1"
Source: The Tao of Warren Buffett
Time will tell.
pepe50 / Flickr
"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre."
Source: Letters to shareholders 1989
BONUS: On Wall Street advice
Flickr/jiazi
"Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls-Royce to get advice from those who take the subway."
Source: The Tao of Warren Buffett
Labels: Investment Quote, Warren Buffett
19 September 2013
Next up for the market? Government shutdown!
From CNBC
The battle lines are being drawn, and the rhetoric is heating up for another fiscal battle royale that could jolt the stock market and maybe even shut down the government.
While analysts see the chances of a shutdown as fairly low, they do see the odds rising, as acrimony rises in Washington - between Democrats and Republicans-and Republicans and Republicans.
The GOP leadership has moved toward a plan to fund the government past Sept. 30, only if Democrats agree to strip funding from the Affordable Care Act. The bigger skirmish ahead is the debt ceiling, which House Republicans have vowed will not be raised.
The Treasury Department has said the $16.7 trillion debt limit will be reached in October, and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said it will not be raised because it pays for expenditures authorized by Congress.
"I've gone up to a 25-percent chance" of a government shutdown, said Potomac Research chief political strategist Greg Valliere. "Last month, I was at 10 percent. I think (House Speaker John) Boehner and most of the leadership know this could blow up on them in the 2014 election, and they're leery about doing anything that radical."
About 40 conservative Republicans revolted against Boehner's plan to move forward with a resolution that would have kept the government running while Congress grappled with the debt ceiling.
"That's the one (debt ceiling) the market has to worry more about," said Valliere, adding he thinks the GOP leadership will ultimately avoid hitting the ceiling and causing a first-ever government default. "But I cannot give you a coherent, concise way of how they finesse this. I think it will get dicey. ... Jack Lew threw down the nuclear weapon. He said if we don't get a debt ceiling hike, people may not get their Social Security checks and we may not be able to pay the troops. The Republicans are playing with fire."
Barry Knapp, head of equity portfolio strategy at Barclays, said it may be the Democrats' intent to trap the GOP in a negative position and raise the public ire, since the Republicans have an improving chance in the mid-term election next year. "I think this is the last hope for the Democrats to take back the House," he said, noting they could "make the Republicans fall into a trap, make a mistake and get blamed for shutting down the government."
Valliere said the House will probably pass a continuing resolution to fund the government, tied to defunding the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare. But it will not make it in the Senate, and the two sides will come to a stalemate.
"I just don't see a government shutdown. I see a very small chance of a default. I think the chances are 50/50 that the Treasury could run out of money, and we would have a period of great uncertainty over what the Treasury could pay for," he said. "It's going to get to be early November before we get a debt ceiling deal. I think Treasury can limp through October but you're cutting it very close. The window of greatest market anxiety will be the last week of October, first week of November."
As for the market, it heads into October, a traditionally volatile month, with a possible fiscal crisis ahead. Knapp points out that during the fiscal calamities in the past couple of years, the Fed was either easing or moving toward more easing. This year the Fed may end up paring back its bond buying program, though it surprised Wall Street Wednesday by leaving its $85 billion monthly bond buying program in tact.
"I think (Fed officials) are very scared about ruining four years of work and especially with the shenanigans going on in the fiscal side of Washington, where these guys clearly don't care about people. They just care about which party is in power. I think that scared them as well," said Rich Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Capital Management.
Washington will fight one less battle than expected this fall, since former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers dropped out of the running for Fed chairman. Although Summers was President Barack Obama's choice, Democrats and Republicans were lining up against him. Wall Street now sees Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen as the likely candidate to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, but the White House has yet to confirm that.
"There's plenty of scope for volatility," said Knapp. "The market likely got the candidate they want to be the next Fed chairperson. You have all these things that already occurred, and the market is at its highs. What's the next positive catalyst? It's hard to see one."
Now the fiscal debate is moving to center stage. "This is just reigniting the whole dysfunctional government thing. If there is a catalyst for the correction that everybody's been calling for since the beginning of the year, this is the one credible possibility for it," said Art Hogan of Lazard Capital Markets. Hogan said the market could quickly see a 5- to 10-percent correction if Congress pushes the situation to the edge. It could be worse if the government is shut down.
The battle lines are being drawn, and the rhetoric is heating up for another fiscal battle royale that could jolt the stock market and maybe even shut down the government.
While analysts see the chances of a shutdown as fairly low, they do see the odds rising, as acrimony rises in Washington - between Democrats and Republicans-and Republicans and Republicans.
The GOP leadership has moved toward a plan to fund the government past Sept. 30, only if Democrats agree to strip funding from the Affordable Care Act. The bigger skirmish ahead is the debt ceiling, which House Republicans have vowed will not be raised.
The Treasury Department has said the $16.7 trillion debt limit will be reached in October, and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said it will not be raised because it pays for expenditures authorized by Congress.
"I've gone up to a 25-percent chance" of a government shutdown, said Potomac Research chief political strategist Greg Valliere. "Last month, I was at 10 percent. I think (House Speaker John) Boehner and most of the leadership know this could blow up on them in the 2014 election, and they're leery about doing anything that radical."
About 40 conservative Republicans revolted against Boehner's plan to move forward with a resolution that would have kept the government running while Congress grappled with the debt ceiling.
"That's the one (debt ceiling) the market has to worry more about," said Valliere, adding he thinks the GOP leadership will ultimately avoid hitting the ceiling and causing a first-ever government default. "But I cannot give you a coherent, concise way of how they finesse this. I think it will get dicey. ... Jack Lew threw down the nuclear weapon. He said if we don't get a debt ceiling hike, people may not get their Social Security checks and we may not be able to pay the troops. The Republicans are playing with fire."
Barry Knapp, head of equity portfolio strategy at Barclays, said it may be the Democrats' intent to trap the GOP in a negative position and raise the public ire, since the Republicans have an improving chance in the mid-term election next year. "I think this is the last hope for the Democrats to take back the House," he said, noting they could "make the Republicans fall into a trap, make a mistake and get blamed for shutting down the government."
Valliere said the House will probably pass a continuing resolution to fund the government, tied to defunding the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare. But it will not make it in the Senate, and the two sides will come to a stalemate.
"I just don't see a government shutdown. I see a very small chance of a default. I think the chances are 50/50 that the Treasury could run out of money, and we would have a period of great uncertainty over what the Treasury could pay for," he said. "It's going to get to be early November before we get a debt ceiling deal. I think Treasury can limp through October but you're cutting it very close. The window of greatest market anxiety will be the last week of October, first week of November."
As for the market, it heads into October, a traditionally volatile month, with a possible fiscal crisis ahead. Knapp points out that during the fiscal calamities in the past couple of years, the Fed was either easing or moving toward more easing. This year the Fed may end up paring back its bond buying program, though it surprised Wall Street Wednesday by leaving its $85 billion monthly bond buying program in tact.
"I think (Fed officials) are very scared about ruining four years of work and especially with the shenanigans going on in the fiscal side of Washington, where these guys clearly don't care about people. They just care about which party is in power. I think that scared them as well," said Rich Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Capital Management.
Washington will fight one less battle than expected this fall, since former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers dropped out of the running for Fed chairman. Although Summers was President Barack Obama's choice, Democrats and Republicans were lining up against him. Wall Street now sees Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen as the likely candidate to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, but the White House has yet to confirm that.
"There's plenty of scope for volatility," said Knapp. "The market likely got the candidate they want to be the next Fed chairperson. You have all these things that already occurred, and the market is at its highs. What's the next positive catalyst? It's hard to see one."
Now the fiscal debate is moving to center stage. "This is just reigniting the whole dysfunctional government thing. If there is a catalyst for the correction that everybody's been calling for since the beginning of the year, this is the one credible possibility for it," said Art Hogan of Lazard Capital Markets. Hogan said the market could quickly see a 5- to 10-percent correction if Congress pushes the situation to the edge. It could be worse if the government is shut down.
18 September 2013
The debt ceiling cloud is looming over Congress and Obama once again
Debt Ceiling Deja Vu; Wall Street Better Watch Out, Says Task
The U.S. is nearing the roof of its spending limit - some economists estimate that it will be reached as early as mid-October. Congress will then have to decide whether to increase the limit or to default on the nation’s debts.
Congress last increased the debt limit in 2011 to $16.7 trillion after a harrowing debate that ultimately led to the downgrade of U.S. credit by Standard and Poor’s.
It looks as though a hearty debate is once again imminent -- House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has said that President Obama will have to negotiate spending cuts if he wants the ceiling raised. "For decades, the White House and Congress have used the debt limit to find bipartisan solutions on the deficit and the debt," he said in a news conference last week.
Obama, meanwhile, has said he is unwilling to negotiate. Gene Sperling, a senior economic advisor to Obama has echoed those sentiments: "As you heard the president say, he is not going to negotiate over the debt limit, that we should not be negotiating over whether to pay our bills."
Debt ceiling talks have been overshadowed by pressing issues in Syria and the debate over the next Fed chair, but the debt debate isn’t something that should be taken lightly by the government or markets, says The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task. “You could have a government shutdown and there could be all kinds of crazy ramifications from that and I just don’t think markets are thinking very clearly about that right now.”
Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Mike Santoli points out that the debt ceiling is no longer the problem it was in 2011, “the deficit has been shrinking, the Fed has been taking down a lot of the treasury debt,” he says.
The U.S. is nearing the roof of its spending limit - some economists estimate that it will be reached as early as mid-October. Congress will then have to decide whether to increase the limit or to default on the nation’s debts.
Congress last increased the debt limit in 2011 to $16.7 trillion after a harrowing debate that ultimately led to the downgrade of U.S. credit by Standard and Poor’s.
It looks as though a hearty debate is once again imminent -- House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has said that President Obama will have to negotiate spending cuts if he wants the ceiling raised. "For decades, the White House and Congress have used the debt limit to find bipartisan solutions on the deficit and the debt," he said in a news conference last week.
Obama, meanwhile, has said he is unwilling to negotiate. Gene Sperling, a senior economic advisor to Obama has echoed those sentiments: "As you heard the president say, he is not going to negotiate over the debt limit, that we should not be negotiating over whether to pay our bills."
Debt ceiling talks have been overshadowed by pressing issues in Syria and the debate over the next Fed chair, but the debt debate isn’t something that should be taken lightly by the government or markets, says The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task. “You could have a government shutdown and there could be all kinds of crazy ramifications from that and I just don’t think markets are thinking very clearly about that right now.”
Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Mike Santoli points out that the debt ceiling is no longer the problem it was in 2011, “the deficit has been shrinking, the Fed has been taking down a lot of the treasury debt,” he says.
17 September 2013
41 of the most insightful and useful concise quotes about investing
1. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
–Warren Buffett (This was actually told Warren Buffett by his teacher cum boss, Benjamin Graham - TopTrader)
2. Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.
–Warren Buffett
3. If you’re prepared to invest in a company, you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won’t get bored.
–Peter Lynch
4. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
–Peter Lynch
5. While it might seem that anyone can be a value investor, the essential characteristics of this type of investor-patience, discipline, and risk aversion-may well be genetically determined.
–Seth Klarmans
6. Twenty years in this business convinces me that any normal person using the customary three percent of the brain can pick stocks just as well, if not better, than the average Wall Street expert.
–Peter Lynch
7. The underlying principles of sound investment should not alter from decade to decade, but the application of these principles must be adapted to significant changes in the financial mechanisms and climate.
–Benjamin Graham
8. Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.
–Warren Buffett
9. We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. -
Warren Buffett
10. The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.
–Benjamin Graham
11. Know what you own, and know why you own it.
–Peter Lynch
12. Based on my own personal experience – both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past – rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.
–Martin Whitman
13. We ignore outlooks and forecasts… we’re lousy at it and we admit it … everyone else is lousy too, but most people won’t admit it.
–Martin Whitman
14. There’s a virtuous cycle when people have to defend challenges to their ideas. Any gaps in thinking or analysis become clear pretty quickly when smart people ask good, logical questions. You can’t be a good value investor without being an independent thinker – you’re seeing valuations that the market is not appreciating. But it’s critical that you understand why the market isn’t seeing the value you do. The back and forth that goes on in the investment process helps you get at that.
–Joel Greenblatt
15. The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.
–Seth Klarman
16. Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain.
–Seth Klarman
17. If you are shopping for common stocks, choose them the way you would buy groceries, not the way you would buy perfume.
–Benjamin Graham
18. Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.
–Warren Buffett
19. Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology.
–Seth Klarman
20. We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.
–Warren Buffett
21. Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.
–Ben Graham
22. Value investing is risk aversion.
–Seth Klarman
23. Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.
–Seth Klarman
24. Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.
–Warren Buffett
25. It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
–Charlie Munger
26. Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.
–Charlie Munger
27. In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
–Ben Graham
28. All intelligent investing is value investing — acquiring more that you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.
–Charlie Munger
29. While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.
–Seth Klarman
30. Buy not on optimism, but on arithmetic.
–Benjamin Graham
31. As in roulette, same is true of the stock trader, who will find that the expense of trading weights the dice heavily against him.
–Benjamin Graham
32. If you have more than 120 or 130 I.Q. points, you can afford to give the rest away. You don’t need extraordinary intelligence to succeed as an investor.
–Warren Buffett
33. If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
–Peter Lynch
34. In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.
–Peter Lynch
35. Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
–Warren Buffett
36. Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.
–Warren Buffett
37. If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.
–George Soros
38. Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.
–Peter Lynch
39. If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years, do not even think about owning it for 10 minutes.
–Warren Buffett
40. Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.
–Warren Buffet
41. Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket… it’s part-ownership of a business.
–Peter Lynch
–Warren Buffett (This was actually told Warren Buffett by his teacher cum boss, Benjamin Graham - TopTrader)
2. Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.
–Warren Buffett
3. If you’re prepared to invest in a company, you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won’t get bored.
–Peter Lynch
4. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
–Peter Lynch
5. While it might seem that anyone can be a value investor, the essential characteristics of this type of investor-patience, discipline, and risk aversion-may well be genetically determined.
–Seth Klarmans
6. Twenty years in this business convinces me that any normal person using the customary three percent of the brain can pick stocks just as well, if not better, than the average Wall Street expert.
–Peter Lynch
7. The underlying principles of sound investment should not alter from decade to decade, but the application of these principles must be adapted to significant changes in the financial mechanisms and climate.
–Benjamin Graham
8. Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.
–Warren Buffett
9. We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. -
Warren Buffett
10. The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.
–Benjamin Graham
11. Know what you own, and know why you own it.
–Peter Lynch
12. Based on my own personal experience – both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past – rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.
–Martin Whitman
13. We ignore outlooks and forecasts… we’re lousy at it and we admit it … everyone else is lousy too, but most people won’t admit it.
–Martin Whitman
14. There’s a virtuous cycle when people have to defend challenges to their ideas. Any gaps in thinking or analysis become clear pretty quickly when smart people ask good, logical questions. You can’t be a good value investor without being an independent thinker – you’re seeing valuations that the market is not appreciating. But it’s critical that you understand why the market isn’t seeing the value you do. The back and forth that goes on in the investment process helps you get at that.
–Joel Greenblatt
15. The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.
–Seth Klarman
16. Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain.
–Seth Klarman
17. If you are shopping for common stocks, choose them the way you would buy groceries, not the way you would buy perfume.
–Benjamin Graham
18. Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.
–Warren Buffett
19. Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology.
–Seth Klarman
20. We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.
–Warren Buffett
21. Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.
–Ben Graham
22. Value investing is risk aversion.
–Seth Klarman
23. Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.
–Seth Klarman
24. Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.
–Warren Buffett
25. It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
–Charlie Munger
26. Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.
–Charlie Munger
27. In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
–Ben Graham
28. All intelligent investing is value investing — acquiring more that you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.
–Charlie Munger
29. While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.
–Seth Klarman
30. Buy not on optimism, but on arithmetic.
–Benjamin Graham
31. As in roulette, same is true of the stock trader, who will find that the expense of trading weights the dice heavily against him.
–Benjamin Graham
32. If you have more than 120 or 130 I.Q. points, you can afford to give the rest away. You don’t need extraordinary intelligence to succeed as an investor.
–Warren Buffett
33. If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
–Peter Lynch
34. In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.
–Peter Lynch
35. Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
–Warren Buffett
36. Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.
–Warren Buffett
37. If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.
–George Soros
38. Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.
–Peter Lynch
39. If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years, do not even think about owning it for 10 minutes.
–Warren Buffett
40. Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.
–Warren Buffet
41. Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket… it’s part-ownership of a business.
–Peter Lynch
Labels: Investment Quote, Warren Buffett
The Top 22 Investment Quotes
Warren Buffett (Net Worth $39 Billion) – “‘Price is what you pay; value is what you get.’ Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.”
George Soros (Net Worth $22 Billion) - ”I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong…I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.”
Carl Icahn (Net Worth $13 Billion) - “You learn in this business: If you want a friend, get a dog”
David Rubenstein (Net Worth $2.8 Billion) – “Persist – don’t take no for an answer. If you’re happy to sit at your desk and not take any risk, you’ll be sitting at your desk for the next 20 years.”
Ray Dalio (Net Worth $6.5 Billion) – “More than anything else, what differentiates people who live up to their potential from those who don’t is a willingness to look at themselves and others objectively.”
Alisher Usmanov (Net Worth $18.1 Billion) - ”First of all I trust my own instinct, experience that I gained over years and feeling when the moment is right for buying shares. That is what one calls intuition.
Carlos Slim (Net Worth $69 Billion) - “Anyone who is not investing now is missing a tremendous opportunity.”
Eddie Lampert (Net Worth $3 Billion) – “This idea of anticipation is key to investing and to business generally. You can’t wait for an opportunity to become obvious. You have to think, “Here’s what other people and companies have done under certain circumstances. Now, under these new circumstances, how is this management likely to behave?”
T. Boone Pickens (Net Worth $1.4 Billion) - “The older I get, the more I see a straight path where I want to go. If you’re going to hunt elephants, don’t get off the trail for a rabbit.”
Charlie Munger (Net Worth $1 Billion) – “If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we’d have a pretty average record. It wasn’t hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.”
Jim Cramer (Net Worth $100 Million) - “As long as you enjoy investing, you’ll be willing to do the homework and stay in the game. That’s why I try to make the show so entertaining, because if you aren’t interested, you’ll either miss the opportunity to make money in the market or not pay enough attention and end up losing your shirt.”
Michael Milken (Net Worth $2.1 Billion) – “My experience indicates that most people who’ve accumulated a great deal of wealth haven’t had that as their goal at all. Wealth is only a by-product, not the original motivation.”
David Tepper (Net Worth $5 Billion) – “This company looks cheap, that company looks cheap, but the overall economy could completely screw it up. The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.”
Benjamin Graham – R.I.P (Net Worth Unknown) – “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money’s worth for his purchase.”
Louis Bacon (Net Worth $1.4 Billion) – “As a speculator you must embrace disorder and chaos.”
Paul Tudor Jones (Net Worth $3.2 Billion) - “Were you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt. After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.”
Peter Thiel (Net Worth $1.5 Billion) – “Value investors look at cash flows. If a company can maintain present cash flows for 5 or 6 years, it’s a good investment. Investors then just hope that those cash flows—and thus the company’s value—don’t decrease faster than they anticipate.”
Bruce Kovner (Net Worth $4.3 Billion) - ” My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking 5 to 10 percent risks on a trade when they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks. The emotional burden of trading is substantial; on any given day, I could lose millions of dollars. If you personalize these losses, you can’t trade.”
Rene Rivkin (Net Worth $346 Million) - “When buying shares, ask yourself, would you buy the whole company?”
Peter Lynch (Net Worth $352 Million) – “I think you have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.”
John Templeton (Net Worth $20 Billion)- “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”
John (Jack) Bogle (Net Worth $4 Billion) - “If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.”
George Soros (Net Worth $22 Billion) - ”I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong…I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.”
Carl Icahn (Net Worth $13 Billion) - “You learn in this business: If you want a friend, get a dog”
David Rubenstein (Net Worth $2.8 Billion) – “Persist – don’t take no for an answer. If you’re happy to sit at your desk and not take any risk, you’ll be sitting at your desk for the next 20 years.”
Ray Dalio (Net Worth $6.5 Billion) – “More than anything else, what differentiates people who live up to their potential from those who don’t is a willingness to look at themselves and others objectively.”
Alisher Usmanov (Net Worth $18.1 Billion) - ”First of all I trust my own instinct, experience that I gained over years and feeling when the moment is right for buying shares. That is what one calls intuition.
Carlos Slim (Net Worth $69 Billion) - “Anyone who is not investing now is missing a tremendous opportunity.”
Eddie Lampert (Net Worth $3 Billion) – “This idea of anticipation is key to investing and to business generally. You can’t wait for an opportunity to become obvious. You have to think, “Here’s what other people and companies have done under certain circumstances. Now, under these new circumstances, how is this management likely to behave?”
T. Boone Pickens (Net Worth $1.4 Billion) - “The older I get, the more I see a straight path where I want to go. If you’re going to hunt elephants, don’t get off the trail for a rabbit.”
Charlie Munger (Net Worth $1 Billion) – “If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we’d have a pretty average record. It wasn’t hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.”
Jim Cramer (Net Worth $100 Million) - “As long as you enjoy investing, you’ll be willing to do the homework and stay in the game. That’s why I try to make the show so entertaining, because if you aren’t interested, you’ll either miss the opportunity to make money in the market or not pay enough attention and end up losing your shirt.”
Michael Milken (Net Worth $2.1 Billion) – “My experience indicates that most people who’ve accumulated a great deal of wealth haven’t had that as their goal at all. Wealth is only a by-product, not the original motivation.”
David Tepper (Net Worth $5 Billion) – “This company looks cheap, that company looks cheap, but the overall economy could completely screw it up. The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.”
Benjamin Graham – R.I.P (Net Worth Unknown) – “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money’s worth for his purchase.”
Louis Bacon (Net Worth $1.4 Billion) – “As a speculator you must embrace disorder and chaos.”
Paul Tudor Jones (Net Worth $3.2 Billion) - “Were you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt. After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.”
Peter Thiel (Net Worth $1.5 Billion) – “Value investors look at cash flows. If a company can maintain present cash flows for 5 or 6 years, it’s a good investment. Investors then just hope that those cash flows—and thus the company’s value—don’t decrease faster than they anticipate.”
Bruce Kovner (Net Worth $4.3 Billion) - ” My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking 5 to 10 percent risks on a trade when they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks. The emotional burden of trading is substantial; on any given day, I could lose millions of dollars. If you personalize these losses, you can’t trade.”
Rene Rivkin (Net Worth $346 Million) - “When buying shares, ask yourself, would you buy the whole company?”
Peter Lynch (Net Worth $352 Million) – “I think you have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.”
John Templeton (Net Worth $20 Billion)- “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”
John (Jack) Bogle (Net Worth $4 Billion) - “If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.”
Labels: Investment Quote, Warren Buffett
十年一觉股市梦，赢得“理财专家”名
来源: 一天钓鱼，两天上网 于 2013-05-10
昨晚看了一下投资笔记，为退休自愿投资始于2002年年初，是在拿到了绿卡，搬进了自住房之后。第一笔投进股市的钱是太太和我的traditional IRA, 算2001年的contribution。十年股市的沉浮，回头看：
1。当年读了无数Scott Burns的专栏文章，看着股市从高点走向崩溃，带着初试嘀声的兴奋，期盼着每年8-9%的回报（那是当时Burns 的Couch Potato portfolio的回报平均值呀），憧憬着早日退休的美国梦，毅然决然地走进了股市。十年过去了，昨晚计算了自己十年的平均回报：十年总共投进股市以100计算，到昨天有134的总数。如果把每年投进股市的钱平均下来计算，俺居然只有5%多一点的年平均回报率（把俺前期投入少，后期投入多的因素考虑进去，实际上该多一点，勉强有6%吧。）。俺可是在2002年年初股市最低迷的时候进去的，也力所能及地以DCA方式投入。8-9%依然只能是梦想。
2。进股市的钱确实要分清长期和短期。这退休的钱是至少20年才考虑用的，经得起股市的折腾。但股市的不可预料，就是20年，也得考虑出来的时间和方式。工薪阶层为退休进股市的方式是没有选择的DCA, 但出来的方式和时间还是得自己作决定的。所以，这十年的股市起伏实际上给我上了一课。还有五年，就要付之于行动了。可短期放进股市的钱，一定得选好进出股市的时间。俺2004年拿俺给女儿准备上大学的钱赌了一把，2006年感恩节前后出来，比女儿实际需要用那笔钱提前了两年，有40%的return。那时确实是看到股市低迷了那么久，往上走的潜力大得多才敢下手的。没吃到鱼头，也没吃到鱼尾。但现在回头看，短期投进股市的钱一定要找好机会，也不能贪。
3。虽然回报远不如预期，但现在的实际情况还是走在了计划的前面。主要是投入比原计划的要大得多。我的家庭理财计划是比较保守的，总留有余地。所以，这些年虽要供女儿上大学，但还是省吃俭用，最大限度地往退休计划里存，并直接投进股市。连股市低迷的2008，2009也没有退缩。知道自己判断股市走向的能力有限，只能闭着眼睛投。多少次和太太面对面，看着每月的报表上数字越来越小，心里打起了退堂鼓。但总会在相互确认工作暂时没有问题的情况下继续。计划的时候往往还年青，在工作上还是上升阶段，所以，大多数人还是会在计划执行过程中发现调整的余地。
4。多读家庭理财的书和文章，一方面会让人失去冒险的精神，但另一方面会让人更加稳健。历史是一面镜子，让人思考。读"漫步华尔街"的前面几个章节，学到了股市历史上几个bubble的成因。后人看当年荷兰的tulip bubble，多么愚蠢和可笑，但和2000年的股市bubble比，多少相似的地方！时代是变了，tulip bulbs换成了technology,但不变的是人性和herd mentality。这些书在让我失去了冲劲和冒险的冲动的同时，也让我在低迷的时候看到了希望。Warren Buffet说：在别人贪婪的时候我们需要恐惧，当别人恐惧的时候你要学会贪婪！不得说他是股市里的老狐狸（没有不尊重的意思），他的成功不是偶然的。
5。家庭理财实际上是在下一盘棋。涉及的东西很多，从税收到孩子大学学费的准备，从家里的油盐柴米等日常开销到房贷车贷，样样都可以是你计划的一个考虑因素。十年的最大改变就是学会了计划预算和记录。纸上谈兵太容易，只有开始了计划预算，开始了行动才会有记录，才能真正学到东西。今天在大千碰到有人问：前不久买了一个股票今天大涨，原因是公司因美国"财政悬崖"而提前分红。他问他该现在卖掉股票呢还是等分红之后再卖。俺没有能力预测从现在到分红时股票的走向，但俺知道分红和short-term capital gain在税法上的不同。这对不同的人可以有完全不同的答案，这不正是美国"财政悬崖"导致股市起伏的原因么。所以，十年前理财是一个一个家庭理财小计划分开看，今天知道了自己是在下一盘棋，每一步其实都是有关联的。
6。十年，从股市的旁观者变成了炒股人。买基金其实是股市的旁观者，你没有真正参与的。十年，有八年是旁观者。去年开始了"炒"。虽然无孔兄（nonconfusion)从来不传我他炒股的绝技，但他也认为我是炒股票的料--亏损尽付谈笑间。炒有炒的乐趣，让平淡的家庭理财多了一份心跳，也能感觉一下股市的脉搏，更让我多了一些现金在手，也就多了一份抗跌的能力。两年炒股虽然只赚了点酒钱（和不炒比），但大多数时候手上有10%的现金。没有也是因为赚了酒钱才进去的。在股市又开始走向下一个高点的时候，我是该有一定量的现金在手了。而不是象2008年那样，随股市颠簸。和太太开玩笑，我怎么也会保持至少50%的钱在股市里，股市平稳时会保持80%以上。但炒股赚的钱的10%还是该我买酒喝的。
十年一觉股市梦，但愿俺水波不兴的海外华人生活多些心跳。
（二0一二年十一月二十八日）
昨晚看了一下投资笔记，为退休自愿投资始于2002年年初，是在拿到了绿卡，搬进了自住房之后。第一笔投进股市的钱是太太和我的traditional IRA, 算2001年的contribution。十年股市的沉浮，回头看：
1。当年读了无数Scott Burns的专栏文章，看着股市从高点走向崩溃，带着初试嘀声的兴奋，期盼着每年8-9%的回报（那是当时Burns 的Couch Potato portfolio的回报平均值呀），憧憬着早日退休的美国梦，毅然决然地走进了股市。十年过去了，昨晚计算了自己十年的平均回报：十年总共投进股市以100计算，到昨天有134的总数。如果把每年投进股市的钱平均下来计算，俺居然只有5%多一点的年平均回报率（把俺前期投入少，后期投入多的因素考虑进去，实际上该多一点，勉强有6%吧。）。俺可是在2002年年初股市最低迷的时候进去的，也力所能及地以DCA方式投入。8-9%依然只能是梦想。
2。进股市的钱确实要分清长期和短期。这退休的钱是至少20年才考虑用的，经得起股市的折腾。但股市的不可预料，就是20年，也得考虑出来的时间和方式。工薪阶层为退休进股市的方式是没有选择的DCA, 但出来的方式和时间还是得自己作决定的。所以，这十年的股市起伏实际上给我上了一课。还有五年，就要付之于行动了。可短期放进股市的钱，一定得选好进出股市的时间。俺2004年拿俺给女儿准备上大学的钱赌了一把，2006年感恩节前后出来，比女儿实际需要用那笔钱提前了两年，有40%的return。那时确实是看到股市低迷了那么久，往上走的潜力大得多才敢下手的。没吃到鱼头，也没吃到鱼尾。但现在回头看，短期投进股市的钱一定要找好机会，也不能贪。
3。虽然回报远不如预期，但现在的实际情况还是走在了计划的前面。主要是投入比原计划的要大得多。我的家庭理财计划是比较保守的，总留有余地。所以，这些年虽要供女儿上大学，但还是省吃俭用，最大限度地往退休计划里存，并直接投进股市。连股市低迷的2008，2009也没有退缩。知道自己判断股市走向的能力有限，只能闭着眼睛投。多少次和太太面对面，看着每月的报表上数字越来越小，心里打起了退堂鼓。但总会在相互确认工作暂时没有问题的情况下继续。计划的时候往往还年青，在工作上还是上升阶段，所以，大多数人还是会在计划执行过程中发现调整的余地。
4。多读家庭理财的书和文章，一方面会让人失去冒险的精神，但另一方面会让人更加稳健。历史是一面镜子，让人思考。读"漫步华尔街"的前面几个章节，学到了股市历史上几个bubble的成因。后人看当年荷兰的tulip bubble，多么愚蠢和可笑，但和2000年的股市bubble比，多少相似的地方！时代是变了，tulip bulbs换成了technology,但不变的是人性和herd mentality。这些书在让我失去了冲劲和冒险的冲动的同时，也让我在低迷的时候看到了希望。Warren Buffet说：在别人贪婪的时候我们需要恐惧，当别人恐惧的时候你要学会贪婪！不得说他是股市里的老狐狸（没有不尊重的意思），他的成功不是偶然的。
5。家庭理财实际上是在下一盘棋。涉及的东西很多，从税收到孩子大学学费的准备，从家里的油盐柴米等日常开销到房贷车贷，样样都可以是你计划的一个考虑因素。十年的最大改变就是学会了计划预算和记录。纸上谈兵太容易，只有开始了计划预算，开始了行动才会有记录，才能真正学到东西。今天在大千碰到有人问：前不久买了一个股票今天大涨，原因是公司因美国"财政悬崖"而提前分红。他问他该现在卖掉股票呢还是等分红之后再卖。俺没有能力预测从现在到分红时股票的走向，但俺知道分红和short-term capital gain在税法上的不同。这对不同的人可以有完全不同的答案，这不正是美国"财政悬崖"导致股市起伏的原因么。所以，十年前理财是一个一个家庭理财小计划分开看，今天知道了自己是在下一盘棋，每一步其实都是有关联的。
6。十年，从股市的旁观者变成了炒股人。买基金其实是股市的旁观者，你没有真正参与的。十年，有八年是旁观者。去年开始了"炒"。虽然无孔兄（nonconfusion)从来不传我他炒股的绝技，但他也认为我是炒股票的料--亏损尽付谈笑间。炒有炒的乐趣，让平淡的家庭理财多了一份心跳，也能感觉一下股市的脉搏，更让我多了一些现金在手，也就多了一份抗跌的能力。两年炒股虽然只赚了点酒钱（和不炒比），但大多数时候手上有10%的现金。没有也是因为赚了酒钱才进去的。在股市又开始走向下一个高点的时候，我是该有一定量的现金在手了。而不是象2008年那样，随股市颠簸。和太太开玩笑，我怎么也会保持至少50%的钱在股市里，股市平稳时会保持80%以上。但炒股赚的钱的10%还是该我买酒喝的。
十年一觉股市梦，但愿俺水波不兴的海外华人生活多些心跳。
（二0一二年十一月二十八日）
Labels: Reference, Warren Buffett
16 September 2013
Not want to trade aggressively recently due to following major uncertainties / factors
Almost in net cash position again in US market, waiting for next opportunity...
Not want to trade aggressively recently due to following major uncertainties / factors,
1 Impending FED tapering after FED meeting from 17 Sep 2013
2 Impending US debt limit bargaining between US Democratic and Republic parties again at around mid Oct 2013
3 Threatening of air strikes to Syria by US with France and UK due to mass killing chemical weapon Sarin gas attack to Syrian civilians causing death of a few hundred people including women and children, which is the reason cited by the western countries for air strikes but no one is sure so far which side, Syrian government or the rebels, has done this. Due to strong opposition of Russian and series of Russian actions, US has to accept Russian proposal that Syrian government hands over the chemical weapons to UN for destruction to avoid air strikes.
4 US main indexes failed to drop to pessimistic level (RSI 14 reaches 20 or below)
Not want to trade aggressively recently due to following major uncertainties / factors,
1 Impending FED tapering after FED meeting from 17 Sep 2013
2 Impending US debt limit bargaining between US Democratic and Republic parties again at around mid Oct 2013
3 Threatening of air strikes to Syria by US with France and UK due to mass killing chemical weapon Sarin gas attack to Syrian civilians causing death of a few hundred people including women and children, which is the reason cited by the western countries for air strikes but no one is sure so far which side, Syrian government or the rebels, has done this. Due to strong opposition of Russian and series of Russian actions, US has to accept Russian proposal that Syrian government hands over the chemical weapons to UN for destruction to avoid air strikes.
4 US main indexes failed to drop to pessimistic level (RSI 14 reaches 20 or below)
Labels: Thoughts
XLU - US Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Limit sell order of XLU filled at 37.74 with profit.
Interest rate kept on rising recently and will continue to do so after FED tapering, which reduces attractiveness of utilities and is thus bad for utilities. wanted to sell badly once hearing impending FED tapering not long ago. Selling at SMA200 shouldn't be a bad deal.
Interest rate kept on rising recently and will continue to do so after FED tapering, which reduces attractiveness of utilities and is thus bad for utilities. wanted to sell badly once hearing impending FED tapering not long ago. Selling at SMA200 shouldn't be a bad deal.
Labels: ETF, Live Trading Records
EIDO - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF
Sold EIDO at 26.18 with profit, SMA50 100 200 trending downwards and SMA50 less than SMA100 less than SAM200, price gapped up and almost touched intermediate resistance SMA50 in a steep short term rebound.
Labels: ETF, Live Trading Records
14 September 2013
5 Simple Ways to Invest Like a Pro
By Rob Berger
One of the best-kept secrets on Wall Street is one your broker hopes you never uncover— figuring out how to invest like a pro is really easy. In fact, any investor can build a well-diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds with little effort. It doesn’t require great expense, extensive knowledge of the market, or even a lot of time.
1. Keep it simple.
Investing does not have to be complicated. While some investors choose to buy individual stocks and bonds, for most of us, a couple of low-cost index funds will suffice. Even Warren Buffett recommends index funds as reflected in his 1996 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:
Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expense) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals. Seriously, costs matter. - Warren Buffett
Taken to its extreme, an investor can build a diversified investment portfolio from a single target-date mutual fund.
2. Go cheap.
As Warren Buffett noted in his letter quoted above, “costs matter.” Unfortunately, it’s easy to ignore costs when it comes to investing. Mutual funds do not send out a monthly bill for investors to pay. Instead, funds simply subtract the fees from the assets it holds. Yet even relatively small annual expenses, multiplied over a lifetime of investing, can make a serious dent in your nest egg.
Expenses that lower investment returns even one-half of a percent, for example, can result in substantially less money at retirement. The key is to invest in low cost stock index ETFs. Many index funds today cost less than 10 basis points (0.10 percent).
3. Invest with a plan.
A sound investment plan is simple to create. With the help of index funds, an investor can devise a simple asset allocation plan between stocks and bonds. Many suggest an investor should own her age in bonds, with the rest in stocks. For example, a 25-year-old would allocate 25 percent of her investments to bonds and 75 percent to stocks. Others suggest a more aggressive approach of owning a percentage of stocks equal to 120 minus your age. Regardless, choose a plan and stick with it.
Following an investment plan helps investors stay the course during difficult times. An investor in his 20s will undoubtedly experience significant bear markets over the next 50 years.Stocks will likely experience one-year losses of 20 to 30 percent several times over the next half-century. A sound investment plan will help an investor weather these storms.
4. Have no fear (or greed).
Fear and greed are two emotions that do not mix well with sound investing. When the stock market is moving up, many investors jump on the bandwagon in hopes of making a quick buck. When stocks eventually fall, those same investors run for the exit. The result is a repeating pattern of buying high and selling low.
Ideally, investors should do just the opposite. A bear market is an ideal time to buy stocks. A quick look back to 2008 and 2009 reveals many stocks that could have been purchased from the bargain racks. At a minimum, however, investors should avoid buying and selling based on the daily, monthly, or yearly fluctuations of the market. Following an investment plan as described above will help.
5. Track your results.
Tracking results is critical. As the price of investments fluctuates, investors will need to rebalance their investments periodically to keep them inline with their investment plan. As an investor nears his investment goal, such as retirement, changes may need to be made to the asset allocation plan. And the cost of investments should always be monitored.
Fortunately, there are many online tools that enable investors to track a portfolio for free. The one I use daily is called Personal Capital. It automatically imports investments from 401(k), IRA and other retirement accounts, as well as non-retirement accounts. It displays the asset allocation of a portfolio along with the total cost of the investments. Regardless of the tool used, however, the key is to monitor an investment portfolio regularly.
With these five tips, anybody can invest like a pro.
Rob Berger is the founder of the popular personal finance blog, the Dough Roller.
One of the best-kept secrets on Wall Street is one your broker hopes you never uncover— figuring out how to invest like a pro is really easy. In fact, any investor can build a well-diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds with little effort. It doesn’t require great expense, extensive knowledge of the market, or even a lot of time.
1. Keep it simple.
Investing does not have to be complicated. While some investors choose to buy individual stocks and bonds, for most of us, a couple of low-cost index funds will suffice. Even Warren Buffett recommends index funds as reflected in his 1996 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:
Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expense) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals. Seriously, costs matter. - Warren Buffett
Taken to its extreme, an investor can build a diversified investment portfolio from a single target-date mutual fund.
2. Go cheap.
As Warren Buffett noted in his letter quoted above, “costs matter.” Unfortunately, it’s easy to ignore costs when it comes to investing. Mutual funds do not send out a monthly bill for investors to pay. Instead, funds simply subtract the fees from the assets it holds. Yet even relatively small annual expenses, multiplied over a lifetime of investing, can make a serious dent in your nest egg.
Expenses that lower investment returns even one-half of a percent, for example, can result in substantially less money at retirement. The key is to invest in low cost stock index ETFs. Many index funds today cost less than 10 basis points (0.10 percent).
3. Invest with a plan.
A sound investment plan is simple to create. With the help of index funds, an investor can devise a simple asset allocation plan between stocks and bonds. Many suggest an investor should own her age in bonds, with the rest in stocks. For example, a 25-year-old would allocate 25 percent of her investments to bonds and 75 percent to stocks. Others suggest a more aggressive approach of owning a percentage of stocks equal to 120 minus your age. Regardless, choose a plan and stick with it.
Following an investment plan helps investors stay the course during difficult times. An investor in his 20s will undoubtedly experience significant bear markets over the next 50 years.Stocks will likely experience one-year losses of 20 to 30 percent several times over the next half-century. A sound investment plan will help an investor weather these storms.
4. Have no fear (or greed).
Fear and greed are two emotions that do not mix well with sound investing. When the stock market is moving up, many investors jump on the bandwagon in hopes of making a quick buck. When stocks eventually fall, those same investors run for the exit. The result is a repeating pattern of buying high and selling low.
Ideally, investors should do just the opposite. A bear market is an ideal time to buy stocks. A quick look back to 2008 and 2009 reveals many stocks that could have been purchased from the bargain racks. At a minimum, however, investors should avoid buying and selling based on the daily, monthly, or yearly fluctuations of the market. Following an investment plan as described above will help.
5. Track your results.
Tracking results is critical. As the price of investments fluctuates, investors will need to rebalance their investments periodically to keep them inline with their investment plan. As an investor nears his investment goal, such as retirement, changes may need to be made to the asset allocation plan. And the cost of investments should always be monitored.
Fortunately, there are many online tools that enable investors to track a portfolio for free. The one I use daily is called Personal Capital. It automatically imports investments from 401(k), IRA and other retirement accounts, as well as non-retirement accounts. It displays the asset allocation of a portfolio along with the total cost of the investments. Regardless of the tool used, however, the key is to monitor an investment portfolio regularly.
With these five tips, anybody can invest like a pro.
Rob Berger is the founder of the popular personal finance blog, the Dough Roller.
Labels: ETF, Stock Trading System, Warren Buffett
13 September 2013
发改委顾问国世平:赶紧卖掉房子 一套都不剩
文章来源: 网易 于 2013-09-12
国世平教授是清华资本经营（投融资与公司管控）总裁班的授课老师，为清华资本经营总裁班授课《资产证券化与投资银行》。
国世平教授现任国家发改委顾问、深圳市政府经济顾问、深圳大学当代金融研究所所长、教授、博士及博士后导师。
国世平教授曾经预测1997年香港房价会下跌30%，那时没人当真，最后跌了80%。“2007年的时候，我号召深圳居民把多余的房子卖掉”国世平说道，而当时北京一教授说房子还要涨20年。最后，2008年深圳房价跌了30%。
以下内容为国世平教授为资本19班的部分授课内容！
非常高兴今天能够来探讨我们的宏观经济形势，包括我们未来的走势。我们知道去年两会是W 总理任期最后一次答记者招待会，我们也可以说这一次记者招待会是中华人民共和国历届总理答记者招待会最为悲壮的一次，你说哪有一个共和国总理，对自己十年的任期，没有一句正面的评价。他怎么说：“我做总理这十年，我是兢兢业业，鞠躬尽瘁，我没有半点的松懈，但是由于我的能力不够，我的经验不足，大家对我很有意见，我请大家原谅我，我请大家忘记我。”你说股票是反映经济的，W 总理做答记者招待会的时候，中国的股票还在涨，接着就暴跌，当天中国的股票一共跌了80多个点创下了2012年中国股票当天最大的跌幅。为什么会这样？
我们知道，新的总理L 将要带领中国人迈向未来的十年。我们来看一看，我们的过去十年，我们究竟发生了什么事，我的未来的十年将要发生什么事。我们来看一看。我一直在讲，如果你2000年开始投资，你是个傻瓜都赚钱。在2000年到现在的投资，是中国财富的总爆发时期。我们知道，如果你第一步你的投资买了房地产，2000年深圳的房价才只有多少啊？2200多，最高涨到多少啊，均价3万块钱，整整涨了11倍，你投资房地产，获利多大，你说房地产赚不赚钱？
2006年中国的股票才多少呢？998元，那么，到了2008年你把股票卖掉，中国的股票涨到多少，一共涨了7倍，达到了6124元，你买股票也赚钱；如果你说你股票不买，你就是买黄金，黄金涨到多少，2000年中国的黄金，那时候全世界的黄金才有多少啊？才只有1克黄金100多块人民币，现在1盎司黄金等于多少啊，最高等于1920美元，涨了多少倍？整整涨了十多倍，19倍，你买黄金也赚钱；如果你说黄金也不买，我们的人民币大幅度的升值，我们的外汇都在升值，也就是什么，就是说，买了人民币，你也赚钱。所以我经常在宝马汽车、奔驰汽车的高端客户中讲，我说我们深圳居民，如果你2000年到深圳的，到今天你还买不起车、买不起房，你浪费了深圳人的指标，我告诉你。因为我想，我们过去赚钱多容易啊。
由于我们不懂政治，我们整整输掉了多少？大家看，我们把1990年到2000年输了，现在我们又输掉了2000年到2010年，我们输的多惨，我们整整输掉了20年。你看看美国，在这个十年（1990-2000），美国人用最贵的美元，买进了最便宜的资产；到了这个十年（2000-2010年），美国知道啊，美国就开始大量的印钞，我想问大家，印钞是不是赚钱啊？印钞就是赚钱，美元就跌，但是美国买的资产就什么，涨！你看，人家是两边赚钱。我们国家是两边挨打（赔钱），我们买的美元，跌了1/3，我们你没有买的资产涨了10多倍。美国、日本和欧洲狂妄的说：“未来打败中国，唯一的出路就是跟中国打一场美元战争。”你看看，他说你们中国人多顽强。你们的石油涨了十多倍，你们生产的企业还有利润。所以为什么美国人嘲笑我们中国人：“你们中国人有什么了不起啊，你们就是我们的民工。”你想想，我们真的是美国的民工。我们把环境污染了，你说你在中国你还能找到一片干净的土壤吗？我们把资源消耗了，我们把资源卖给美国，美国开始还把美元给我们，最后连美元都不给我们。因为改革开放的时候，我们需要美元，我们把东西卖给美国，把美元拿回来。最后连美元都不要了，我们把东西卖给美国，就买美国的国债。美国人说：“啊，我欠你十亿美元了，记下来。欠你一百亿美元，记下来。一千亿美元啦，一万亿美元，两万亿美元”美国突然就把货币贬值了1/3，我们的1/3财富就不见了，我们输的多惨啊!
我们输掉了多少，我们输掉了从1990年到2000年，又输掉了2000年到2010年，现在我们最担心中国，还要输掉未来的十年（2010-2020年），请大家注意，如果中国再把未来的十年输掉，中国没的救！你看看美国人，美国人在这个时候（2000-2010年），他知道印钞印了十多年，美国再也不能够印钞，美国在这十年就开始什么，美国去年开始把美元强劲的上升，美元强劲的上升，美国买的资产就大幅的下挫，美国开始卖资产。我们中国的政府，我们中国的企业家，完全没有反应过来，还是蒙查查。
现在看到房价到今天这个的地步，我告诉他对中国的经济伤害有多大。第一，实体经济的利润只有5-10%，而房地产的利润高达100%，这种结果说明什么？所有的实体经济，只要有可能都朝房地产转移。上市公司“湘粤情”做什么的？餐馆的，现在餐馆不大做了，转到房地产去。上市公司雅戈尔做什么的？服装的，现在服装也不做了，也朝房地产转移。中国将是一个不折不扣的房地产的国家。一个国家以房地产作为立国之本，你得注意。
第二，我们的实体经济遭受毁灭性的打击。我们希望银行的钱多一点救助实体经济。但是我们银行的钱80%是流到房地产的，我们的实体经济根本就得不到救助。德国之所以可以抗衡全球两次金融危机，就是德国有非常坚挺的实体经济。实体经济才是一个国家的立国之本。我们国家的立国之本在哪里？
第三，我们的产能过剩多么严重，我们的彩电、冰箱十年不生产都卖不掉。我们希望老百姓多一点的消费，但是我们中国的钱全部都去买房子。我们算了一下给老百姓1000块钱，其中800块就是买房子。祖孙三代的钱交给了首付，然后全家按揭，你还有多少钱消费，我告诉你房地产走到今天这个地步，令我们国家领导人感到非常的忧虑。我想问大家，现在房地产到底是在涨还是跌，全国的报道全都在涨，你真的以为房子在涨吗？
现在我们的媒体，谁敢说房子跌啊，你一跌我就不给你广告！现在广告，媒体广告，都是地产的广告。我想问大家，现在媒体是不是冒（没有）德。中国大中城市70个城市在涨，那老百姓说房子肯定要涨。我想问大家，中国的大中城市怎么定义啊，地级市，比如说我们广东韶关、阳江、东莞、珠海、汕头、江门，这都是属于大中城市，讲地级市，中国有多少地级市啊，中国到底有多少地级市啊？648个，那你想，我想问大家，中国648个大中城市，只有70个城市在涨，364个房子在跌，你怎么不报道，还有120个城市不涨不跌，你怎么不报道。如果你全部报道出来，那时老百姓说，中国的大中城市70个城市在涨，364个城市在跌，还有120个城市不涨不跌，老百姓会怎么想？但媒体对老百姓就报道第一个。现在我告诉你，中央还不是担心房子暴涨，现在中央最担心房子像断崖式的下滑。现在中央内部预计的房子很快就要崩盘。已经崩盘或很快就要崩盘的110个城市，很快就要崩盘。第一个崩盘的，鄂尔多斯。我是内蒙古鄂尔多斯政府的高级顾问，我去年3月份到鄂尔多斯市去演讲的时候，鄂尔多斯的房价是22000块钱一平，我就给鄂尔多斯的市长、市委书记云峰书记说，我说鄂尔多斯的房价很快就要暴跌，他怎么说：教授，我们知道要跌，但最低也不能低于17000。我说谁说的。现在上一个月，鄂尔多斯政府给我的报告是多少，鄂尔多斯的房价跌到1700块钱一平方米，全崩盘了，地产商全逃跑了。我的一个学生上个月从鄂尔多斯开回了36辆路虎车。
第二城市崩盘的是温州，温州是中国炒房的，谁相信温州的房子跌，现在温州的房子砍掉60%还在跌。都在抛房子。
第三个崩盘的城市海南，我们是限价限的最高价，海南是限的最低价，不能低于17000元。
第四个崩盘的城市是贵阳，贵阳房子贵到什么样，平均每个人能分到30多套房子。现在中央内部预警的房价要崩盘的：大连、沈阳、营口、烟台、青岛、唐山、常州、宁波、石家庄、长沙、海南、丽江、北海、惠州、珠海很快就要崩盘。我告诉你房子一旦暴跌，我们都直接冲击中国的银行。那时候房子再跌下去，我们的银行全都要改名。中国银行改名为中国银行房地产有限公司、中国建设银行改名为中国建设银行房地产有限公司。所以我们银监会的主席马上高调的宣布，中国的房价会跌，银行会承受房价下调50%的风险，讲这句话的简直是在胡说八道，你怎么知道的？即便我们认为房子会跌50%，能扛得住？大家知道谁来扛，谁来扛，第一房子跌会直接冲击地方政府，现在地方政府欠银行的钱是一个天文数字，我上一个月到广东工商银行演讲，演讲完以后和工商银行行长吃饭。广东工商银行的行长问我，他说：教授，地方政府欠我们银行的钱本金还还不还?我说：你还想本金,你怎么这么天真，现在利息都还不起，你还还本金，本金永远不还你啦。广东工商银行的行长脸都吓白了。他说教授，政府不能耍流氓。我说现在政府的流氓行为很中立，你不知道吗？
将来的情况是什么？房地产崩盘，地方政府崩盘，高铁崩盘，地铁崩盘，那么我们的银行一定崩盘。中央就一定要出手救啊。中央说房地产不要了，地铁不要了，高铁不要了，但是中央一定要救银行啊。不救银行怎么办，老百姓把你一辈子的血汗钱存到银行，第二天早上说没有银行了，你不杀人放火才怪呢！那么中央还要救地方政府，你不就地方政府，地方政府没有了，那不就乱套了嘛。中央也没有钱，怎么办？只有一个办法就是大量的印钞，我们国家将出现恶性的通货膨胀。
所以我建议，因为如果银行倒闭，中央只有大量的印币，我们现在的情况多像15年前的巴西乌拉圭治理。他们的房地产崩盘，地方全部崩盘，后来他们就买进了货币，没有想到巴西的货币出现了百分之5万多的贬值，只有那些聪明的人把巴西的东西卖掉，买进美元，最后抄底，一举成为巴西的首富。如果我们对政治经济稍微敏锐一点，为什么人民日报和新华社最近连续4次发表社论，我们一定不要出现南美化的趋向。我想问大家，我建议大家，听我一句话，明天不要把你所有的鸡蛋都装在一个篮子里，到明天，到银行把你人民币的资产至少20%换成美元，因为我们最担心人民币守不住。一旦人民币守不住，中央被迫大量的印钞，我们人民币会出现巨大的贬值，一旦人民币贬值，你再想换美元，换不出来，你看到没有，像去年北京、上海、深圳、广州各地美元存款创历史新高，干什么，就怕守不住了。我也最担心我们国家移民到国外去的这批人，将成为还乡团杀回来。所以我建议大家，听我一句话，明天，到银行把你人民币的资产至少20%换成美元，安全一点，那我们来看现在令中国领导人，感到最为焦虑的问题是什么，就是房地产。因为我中国老百姓十年赚的钱全都买在房地产上了，我们知道中国的老百姓都相信房子不跌，谁说的？经济学家是数字说明问题。
我在这里，我选的是亚洲最具典型的三个国家和地区房地产走势图，大家看一下这三个走势图是不是惊人的相似啊。就说每个国家和地区的房地产走势，基本上是一样的，没有哪个国家和地区会走出自己独立的痕迹。历史是有惊人的相似，大家看，日本的房地产是不是1982年开始涨，香港的房地产92年开始涨，我们国家的房地产是2002年开始涨，大家看有没有惊人的相似啊，而我们香港比日本晚多少年啊，晚十年，我们比香港晚多少年啊，十年，我们比日本呢，晚二十年。但是房子是不可能永远涨的，没有哪个国家的房子一直涨，大家看，日本的房价从1982年大涨到1987年，涨了多少年啊，5年，日本的房子整整涨了10倍，香港的房子从1992年大涨到1997年，涨了几年啊，5年也涨了10倍，我们深圳的房子从2002年大涨到2007年，也涨了5年，整整涨了11倍，但是房子不可能永远涨。我们看日本的房子，日本的房子到1987年涨到10倍，日本的房子贵到什么地方，把日本首都东京的房子卖掉可以把整个美国的房子买下来，所以日本人在1987年去美国把楼整栋整栋的买下来，买下来以后，美国人当时都惊死了。说美国将要被日本买走。在1987年日本人是用了2000亿，把美国最具有标志性的大厦洛克菲勒帝国大厦买下，买下以后日本人扛着国旗冲上去，把美国的国旗卸下来，一脚踢下去，插上日本的国旗，奏日本的国歌。日本人就说30多年前，我们被美国打败，现在我们打败美国，我们又回来了。美国人很愤怒，但是没办法，标志性的大厦被他们买走了。但是日本没有想到，在1987年日本的房子暴跌。到1993年，1993年日本人极度悲观失望的时候，没有想到他的房子强劲的反弹，在1994年日本人又拼命的买房子，没有想到1994年日本房子再次暴跌到1995年，从1987年到1995年，日本的房子整整跌了80%，到了1995年是什么情况？1987年日本人是用2000亿买走的洛克菲勒帝国大厦，到了1995年美国人多少钱买回来的，200亿就把它买回来了。而且美国人做的更绝，扛着一把斧头上去的，因为那个旗杆是木头的，连旗杆都砍断了，一脚把它踢下去，插上美国的国旗。美国怎么说？日本人打败我用了30多年，我们打败了日本就用了7年的时间把日本打回去。
我们看看香港，香港的房子在1992年发展到1997年，在1997年涨了10倍，香港人杀红了眼睛，谁相信香港的房子跌，我不是吹啊，我是成功的预测香港的房子在1997年跌，我在1997年1月份在香港的信报和香港的电视台发表演讲，我说房子很快就要暴跌，李嘉诚一看非常的愤怒，在香港的经济日报连续4天登广告，名字就叫，质问国世平教授。我跟李嘉诚公开的展开了论战，我说日本的房子涨了5年涨了10倍，遇到金融危机，日本的房子暴跌。香港的房子5年涨了10倍，遇到亚洲的金融危机，房子必跌无疑。国老师预测完全准确，香港的房子在1997年暴跌的到2003年，香港人极度的悲观失望，后来没想到房子强劲的反弹，在2004年香港人又拼命的买房子，没有想到房子第二次探底到2005年，从1997年到2005年，香港的房子整整跌了80%，在2005年李嘉诚又在香港经济日报整版的登广告，向国世平道歉，同时聘请我为李嘉诚公司的高级顾问。
我不是吹牛，我又是成功的预测中国的房子在2008年开始暴跌。我第一次对中国房地产发出警告是在2007年8月10号，在深圳的宇宙宾馆，深圳厅，1000多人听我讲，我说房子要跌，我说2008年房子要跌。我说为什么呢？日本的房子涨了5年涨了十倍，遇到金融危机房子跌。香港的涨了5年涨了十倍，遇到亚洲金融危机房子跌了。中国的房子涨了5年涨了十一倍，遇到美国的金融危机房子必跌无疑。我说中国人是羊群效应，房子越涨他越买，一旦跌，没有买的，所以我说深圳啊一定要提前卖房子，所以我建议深圳居民在2007年12份以前把你多余的房子坚决卖掉。最好把住的房子也卖掉，去租房子住。我老婆从来不听我的演讲，不知道怎么回事，跑来听我的演讲，听了我的演讲吓了我一大跳，回家的时候坐在我的车上满脸的愤怒。我说怎么回事，我没得罪了你啊，你怎么这么不开心，她就突然发作了，你这个人赚钱，是不是到了穷凶极恶的地步，你把多余的房子卖掉就行了，你怎么把住的房子也卖掉呢，将来什么都可以卖，将来也可以把老婆也卖掉呢。我说老婆是不能卖的，老婆也卖不出什么价格啊。我说老婆是有收藏价值的。你这个人怎么这么讲话，老婆的价值是收藏的。
2008年北京的房子像断崖一样跌了40%，上海的房子跌了最少，跌了30%；我们深圳的房子像断崖似的跌了30%，东莞的房子直接跌60%。但是，国老师犯了一个最重要的错误是什么，我没有想到我们国家的领导人这么乱来，太不像话。大家看看，日本的房子跌了几年，87到93几年，6年；香港的房子跌了几年，6年；我们国家的房子至少要跌4年吧，刚刚跌到第三个月，到来2009年3月份，中央像发神经一样宣布救市。这就是温家宝搞的4万亿投资。4万亿投资要命啊，我告诉你。张德江总理怎么说，中央失信于人。我们国家为此付出了极为高昂的代价。那时候地产商响应中央的号召，主动的把房价往下调，我们的地方政府，我们的老百姓配合中央不买房子，没有想到我们国家领导人这么乱来，4万亿投资救了地产一把。如果大家想一想，2008年让房子慢慢跌下来，我们不会有这么困难。非常可惜，现在中国老百姓都不相信中国房子会跌，但是我告诉大家，我今天负责任的告诉大家，中国老百姓再靠买房子赚钱的时代已经一去不复返了。为什么？房地产的格局已经发生了重大的变化。我告诉你，我们国家去年是多少，去年我们国家大中城市190个城市在这里，今年有多少，几十个，可能明年只有多少，才有50个，可能后面30个，最后20个，最后10个。深圳、北京、上海的房子可能最后跌，因为我是万科的高级顾问，我是李嘉诚公司的高级顾问。他问我，我说为什么深圳、北京、上海的房子泡沫最多，为什么最后跌，他说教授，你想想就知道了，要保卫中心城市，我们首先把四线城市房子卖掉，救三线的；如果三线救不了，卖掉三线救二线，二线还不行就卖二线救一线。如果一线崩盘了，中国就全崩盘了，但是我告诉你，不管你怎么卖，中国第一从今年开始，中国中央是什么，关门了，房地产的所得税20%，这是好吓人啊。香港的房地产所得税1.5%，房价涨，后来香港把房子所得税提到4.5%，房子不涨了，后来提到8.7%，房子开始暴跌。我们中国的房地产所得税是20%，这是个什么概念？在座的你以后买房子，如果房子不涨30%，你一分钱都赚不到，为什么，20%的交了所得税，还有5%的契税，你还要买房子，还要按揭吗？再交5%的按揭，你说房子涨30%多难涨啊，那房子难涨，你不赚钱，你还买房子干什么啊！那你说好，你买房子，你代我交税，我告诉你房地产所得税是直接税，直接税是不能转让的，只有间接税是可以转让的！比如说我把我的房子卖给赵总，赵总代我交了30万的税，他到税务局去举报，国教授的房产税是我交的，税务局把我抓起来，把钱退给他，还坐牢，那把房价涨上去。开玩笑，房子贵谁买你的。开玩笑嘛。我告诉你房子买不掉。我告诉你明年，今年是官年，明年就要打狗了。我们国家明年全方位征收房产税。中国的房产税是多少啊，0.6%-6%，如果中央想把房产税涨到6%是个什么概念，在座的你住一百万的房子，你一年交6万的税，你交就行了。国老师在深圳的房子700万，我一年要交42万的税，李嘉诚一年交的房产税是1700万，他的豪宅17个亿。我告诉你，到那个时候我们中国居民都要做一个选择，根据你的收入水平决定你住房的大小。
我们中国的老百姓真的很可怜，我们根本就不是买房子，我们是买房子的居住权，因为土地不是你的，我们就买了70年居住权，我想问大家，谁住满过70年，中国住满30年拔掉，美国、日本和欧洲的房子连土地都是你的，人家才买房子，日本的人口密度比中国大这么多，我刚刚从日本北海道回来，日本的北海道房子多便宜啊，1700元/平米，土地都是你的。我建议大家，我警告在座，房子很快就要崩盘，我警告在座的，如果这个时候你胆敢再去买房，你将成为中国房地产史上最后一批解放军，把别人彻底解放了，在上面站岗十年都下不来。
国老师在去年，我做的四个预测，三个预测全部应验。第一个预测，煤炭及大众商品价格很快就要暴跌，应验；我的第二预测，黄金很快就要暴跌，应验；我的第三预测，银行里缺钱，应验；我的第四预测，房地产很快就要崩盘，我们到明年看，看他怎么崩盘。
我们中国老百姓，又有一个煳涂的想法。教授，第一套房子不征房产税，你看，媒体报道，第一套房子不征房产税，谁说的，我在国务院内部做一个的演讲，我说谁敢自立政策，第一套房子不征房产税，只要中国宣布第一套房子不征房产税，中国保证有2亿对夫妻要宣布离婚。中国的是假离婚，你一套，我一套，我们中国人是什么都敢做的，那么中国有2亿对夫妻离婚，中国是全世界离婚率最高的国家，又有两亿对夫妻同居在一起，中国是全世界同居率最高的国家。创造一个世界丑闻。深圳2011年搞得限购令，深圳人那一个月离婚多少对啊，2万对夫妻，排长队离婚。我去看的时候，每个人都是面带微笑，你说哪里有离婚面带微笑的啊！都是很痛苦的事情啊，全是假的。现在深圳统计，那一个月离婚的2万对夫妻，多少对复合的，只有9000对复合，11000对自然解体。我告诉你，我们有好多的女的好笨哦，老公说，我们俩是假的假离婚，买房子，假离婚，你先出去，我买了房子你再回来复婚，这女的好笨哦，一分钱财产没拿跑出去了，没到两个星期男的和别人结婚了。她说我们俩不是假的吗？怎么搞真的了呀。最后到法庭告，法庭怎么判决，你跟你老公离婚合法离婚，你老公和别人结婚，合法结婚，最后这女的血本无归呀，我警告我们在座的女性啊，千万不要搞假离婚啊，不要假离婚变成真离婚，把老公趁机放跑了，如果万一要搞假离婚，你也让老公一个人出去吗？你控制住财产吗？
我建议大家，今年买一点股票，为什么，因为股票和房地产在国外都是两个并驾齐驱的。我们中国房地产长期在高位，我们的股票长期在低位，正不正常，绝对不正常，中央一定要把房地产打下来，价格。如果老百姓的股票不涨，中国老百姓的资产是不是要缩水啊，这是中央不愿意看到的。中央希望，房子调下来，股票涨上去。至少老百姓的资产没有缩水，如果中国的股票涨上去，房子跌了，中央一定要老百姓卖掉股票，抄底房地产，股票跌到这个地方，房地产涨到这个地方，就形成了房地产和股票的并驾齐驱。这是中央的战略意图。我告诉你，你在别的地方可以不听党的话，在投资方面一定要听党的话，因为共产党是最大的专家。中国的经济就是政治经济。
最大的地产商万达王健林深深的知道这一点。我今年春节到他家里过年，看到他的门联是怎么写的，左边是写：毛主席叫我革命我革命，右边是怎么写的：邓主席叫我赚钱我赚钱。横幅怎么写的：永远跟党走。大家想一想，2008年你如果听了党的话，要卖掉，你是不是抄底了。现在中央让你卖掉房子买股票，你把房子卖掉你可能又掏底了。但是我们中国老百姓就是不听党的话。党要你卖房子，你坚决不卖房子，要你买股票，你坚决不买股票；我告诉你今天的股票有一波非常好的行情，所以我建议大家明天开始。大家卖房子，买进股票。
那我们在座的就会说，教授，你说经济不好，股票反应经济吗？那么经济不好，股票怎么会涨呢，中国的股票什么时候反应过经济啊。美国的GDP上升170倍，美国的股票涨多少倍啊，600倍。我们的GDP上升多少倍啊，280倍，我们的股票上升为0。上届证监会主席名字叫尚福林，上升的幅度为零。所以今天我要跟大家讲，卖掉房子，买股票。明年如果股票涨上去了，房子跌了，再请我演讲，我让大家卖掉股票抄底房地产。（BH）
国世平教授是清华资本经营（投融资与公司管控）总裁班的授课老师，为清华资本经营总裁班授课《资产证券化与投资银行》。
国世平教授现任国家发改委顾问、深圳市政府经济顾问、深圳大学当代金融研究所所长、教授、博士及博士后导师。
国世平教授曾经预测1997年香港房价会下跌30%，那时没人当真，最后跌了80%。“2007年的时候，我号召深圳居民把多余的房子卖掉”国世平说道，而当时北京一教授说房子还要涨20年。最后，2008年深圳房价跌了30%。
以下内容为国世平教授为资本19班的部分授课内容！
非常高兴今天能够来探讨我们的宏观经济形势，包括我们未来的走势。我们知道去年两会是W 总理任期最后一次答记者招待会，我们也可以说这一次记者招待会是中华人民共和国历届总理答记者招待会最为悲壮的一次，你说哪有一个共和国总理，对自己十年的任期，没有一句正面的评价。他怎么说：“我做总理这十年，我是兢兢业业，鞠躬尽瘁，我没有半点的松懈，但是由于我的能力不够，我的经验不足，大家对我很有意见，我请大家原谅我，我请大家忘记我。”你说股票是反映经济的，W 总理做答记者招待会的时候，中国的股票还在涨，接着就暴跌，当天中国的股票一共跌了80多个点创下了2012年中国股票当天最大的跌幅。为什么会这样？
我们知道，新的总理L 将要带领中国人迈向未来的十年。我们来看一看，我们的过去十年，我们究竟发生了什么事，我的未来的十年将要发生什么事。我们来看一看。我一直在讲，如果你2000年开始投资，你是个傻瓜都赚钱。在2000年到现在的投资，是中国财富的总爆发时期。我们知道，如果你第一步你的投资买了房地产，2000年深圳的房价才只有多少啊？2200多，最高涨到多少啊，均价3万块钱，整整涨了11倍，你投资房地产，获利多大，你说房地产赚不赚钱？
2006年中国的股票才多少呢？998元，那么，到了2008年你把股票卖掉，中国的股票涨到多少，一共涨了7倍，达到了6124元，你买股票也赚钱；如果你说你股票不买，你就是买黄金，黄金涨到多少，2000年中国的黄金，那时候全世界的黄金才有多少啊？才只有1克黄金100多块人民币，现在1盎司黄金等于多少啊，最高等于1920美元，涨了多少倍？整整涨了十多倍，19倍，你买黄金也赚钱；如果你说黄金也不买，我们的人民币大幅度的升值，我们的外汇都在升值，也就是什么，就是说，买了人民币，你也赚钱。所以我经常在宝马汽车、奔驰汽车的高端客户中讲，我说我们深圳居民，如果你2000年到深圳的，到今天你还买不起车、买不起房，你浪费了深圳人的指标，我告诉你。因为我想，我们过去赚钱多容易啊。
由于我们不懂政治，我们整整输掉了多少？大家看，我们把1990年到2000年输了，现在我们又输掉了2000年到2010年，我们输的多惨，我们整整输掉了20年。你看看美国，在这个十年（1990-2000），美国人用最贵的美元，买进了最便宜的资产；到了这个十年（2000-2010年），美国知道啊，美国就开始大量的印钞，我想问大家，印钞是不是赚钱啊？印钞就是赚钱，美元就跌，但是美国买的资产就什么，涨！你看，人家是两边赚钱。我们国家是两边挨打（赔钱），我们买的美元，跌了1/3，我们你没有买的资产涨了10多倍。美国、日本和欧洲狂妄的说：“未来打败中国，唯一的出路就是跟中国打一场美元战争。”你看看，他说你们中国人多顽强。你们的石油涨了十多倍，你们生产的企业还有利润。所以为什么美国人嘲笑我们中国人：“你们中国人有什么了不起啊，你们就是我们的民工。”你想想，我们真的是美国的民工。我们把环境污染了，你说你在中国你还能找到一片干净的土壤吗？我们把资源消耗了，我们把资源卖给美国，美国开始还把美元给我们，最后连美元都不给我们。因为改革开放的时候，我们需要美元，我们把东西卖给美国，把美元拿回来。最后连美元都不要了，我们把东西卖给美国，就买美国的国债。美国人说：“啊，我欠你十亿美元了，记下来。欠你一百亿美元，记下来。一千亿美元啦，一万亿美元，两万亿美元”美国突然就把货币贬值了1/3，我们的1/3财富就不见了，我们输的多惨啊!
我们输掉了多少，我们输掉了从1990年到2000年，又输掉了2000年到2010年，现在我们最担心中国，还要输掉未来的十年（2010-2020年），请大家注意，如果中国再把未来的十年输掉，中国没的救！你看看美国人，美国人在这个时候（2000-2010年），他知道印钞印了十多年，美国再也不能够印钞，美国在这十年就开始什么，美国去年开始把美元强劲的上升，美元强劲的上升，美国买的资产就大幅的下挫，美国开始卖资产。我们中国的政府，我们中国的企业家，完全没有反应过来，还是蒙查查。
现在看到房价到今天这个的地步，我告诉他对中国的经济伤害有多大。第一，实体经济的利润只有5-10%，而房地产的利润高达100%，这种结果说明什么？所有的实体经济，只要有可能都朝房地产转移。上市公司“湘粤情”做什么的？餐馆的，现在餐馆不大做了，转到房地产去。上市公司雅戈尔做什么的？服装的，现在服装也不做了，也朝房地产转移。中国将是一个不折不扣的房地产的国家。一个国家以房地产作为立国之本，你得注意。
第二，我们的实体经济遭受毁灭性的打击。我们希望银行的钱多一点救助实体经济。但是我们银行的钱80%是流到房地产的，我们的实体经济根本就得不到救助。德国之所以可以抗衡全球两次金融危机，就是德国有非常坚挺的实体经济。实体经济才是一个国家的立国之本。我们国家的立国之本在哪里？
第三，我们的产能过剩多么严重，我们的彩电、冰箱十年不生产都卖不掉。我们希望老百姓多一点的消费，但是我们中国的钱全部都去买房子。我们算了一下给老百姓1000块钱，其中800块就是买房子。祖孙三代的钱交给了首付，然后全家按揭，你还有多少钱消费，我告诉你房地产走到今天这个地步，令我们国家领导人感到非常的忧虑。我想问大家，现在房地产到底是在涨还是跌，全国的报道全都在涨，你真的以为房子在涨吗？
现在我们的媒体，谁敢说房子跌啊，你一跌我就不给你广告！现在广告，媒体广告，都是地产的广告。我想问大家，现在媒体是不是冒（没有）德。中国大中城市70个城市在涨，那老百姓说房子肯定要涨。我想问大家，中国的大中城市怎么定义啊，地级市，比如说我们广东韶关、阳江、东莞、珠海、汕头、江门，这都是属于大中城市，讲地级市，中国有多少地级市啊，中国到底有多少地级市啊？648个，那你想，我想问大家，中国648个大中城市，只有70个城市在涨，364个房子在跌，你怎么不报道，还有120个城市不涨不跌，你怎么不报道。如果你全部报道出来，那时老百姓说，中国的大中城市70个城市在涨，364个城市在跌，还有120个城市不涨不跌，老百姓会怎么想？但媒体对老百姓就报道第一个。现在我告诉你，中央还不是担心房子暴涨，现在中央最担心房子像断崖式的下滑。现在中央内部预计的房子很快就要崩盘。已经崩盘或很快就要崩盘的110个城市，很快就要崩盘。第一个崩盘的，鄂尔多斯。我是内蒙古鄂尔多斯政府的高级顾问，我去年3月份到鄂尔多斯市去演讲的时候，鄂尔多斯的房价是22000块钱一平，我就给鄂尔多斯的市长、市委书记云峰书记说，我说鄂尔多斯的房价很快就要暴跌，他怎么说：教授，我们知道要跌，但最低也不能低于17000。我说谁说的。现在上一个月，鄂尔多斯政府给我的报告是多少，鄂尔多斯的房价跌到1700块钱一平方米，全崩盘了，地产商全逃跑了。我的一个学生上个月从鄂尔多斯开回了36辆路虎车。
第二城市崩盘的是温州，温州是中国炒房的，谁相信温州的房子跌，现在温州的房子砍掉60%还在跌。都在抛房子。
第三个崩盘的城市海南，我们是限价限的最高价，海南是限的最低价，不能低于17000元。
第四个崩盘的城市是贵阳，贵阳房子贵到什么样，平均每个人能分到30多套房子。现在中央内部预警的房价要崩盘的：大连、沈阳、营口、烟台、青岛、唐山、常州、宁波、石家庄、长沙、海南、丽江、北海、惠州、珠海很快就要崩盘。我告诉你房子一旦暴跌，我们都直接冲击中国的银行。那时候房子再跌下去，我们的银行全都要改名。中国银行改名为中国银行房地产有限公司、中国建设银行改名为中国建设银行房地产有限公司。所以我们银监会的主席马上高调的宣布，中国的房价会跌，银行会承受房价下调50%的风险，讲这句话的简直是在胡说八道，你怎么知道的？即便我们认为房子会跌50%，能扛得住？大家知道谁来扛，谁来扛，第一房子跌会直接冲击地方政府，现在地方政府欠银行的钱是一个天文数字，我上一个月到广东工商银行演讲，演讲完以后和工商银行行长吃饭。广东工商银行的行长问我，他说：教授，地方政府欠我们银行的钱本金还还不还?我说：你还想本金,你怎么这么天真，现在利息都还不起，你还还本金，本金永远不还你啦。广东工商银行的行长脸都吓白了。他说教授，政府不能耍流氓。我说现在政府的流氓行为很中立，你不知道吗？
将来的情况是什么？房地产崩盘，地方政府崩盘，高铁崩盘，地铁崩盘，那么我们的银行一定崩盘。中央就一定要出手救啊。中央说房地产不要了，地铁不要了，高铁不要了，但是中央一定要救银行啊。不救银行怎么办，老百姓把你一辈子的血汗钱存到银行，第二天早上说没有银行了，你不杀人放火才怪呢！那么中央还要救地方政府，你不就地方政府，地方政府没有了，那不就乱套了嘛。中央也没有钱，怎么办？只有一个办法就是大量的印钞，我们国家将出现恶性的通货膨胀。
所以我建议，因为如果银行倒闭，中央只有大量的印币，我们现在的情况多像15年前的巴西乌拉圭治理。他们的房地产崩盘，地方全部崩盘，后来他们就买进了货币，没有想到巴西的货币出现了百分之5万多的贬值，只有那些聪明的人把巴西的东西卖掉，买进美元，最后抄底，一举成为巴西的首富。如果我们对政治经济稍微敏锐一点，为什么人民日报和新华社最近连续4次发表社论，我们一定不要出现南美化的趋向。我想问大家，我建议大家，听我一句话，明天不要把你所有的鸡蛋都装在一个篮子里，到明天，到银行把你人民币的资产至少20%换成美元，因为我们最担心人民币守不住。一旦人民币守不住，中央被迫大量的印钞，我们人民币会出现巨大的贬值，一旦人民币贬值，你再想换美元，换不出来，你看到没有，像去年北京、上海、深圳、广州各地美元存款创历史新高，干什么，就怕守不住了。我也最担心我们国家移民到国外去的这批人，将成为还乡团杀回来。所以我建议大家，听我一句话，明天，到银行把你人民币的资产至少20%换成美元，安全一点，那我们来看现在令中国领导人，感到最为焦虑的问题是什么，就是房地产。因为我中国老百姓十年赚的钱全都买在房地产上了，我们知道中国的老百姓都相信房子不跌，谁说的？经济学家是数字说明问题。
我在这里，我选的是亚洲最具典型的三个国家和地区房地产走势图，大家看一下这三个走势图是不是惊人的相似啊。就说每个国家和地区的房地产走势，基本上是一样的，没有哪个国家和地区会走出自己独立的痕迹。历史是有惊人的相似，大家看，日本的房地产是不是1982年开始涨，香港的房地产92年开始涨，我们国家的房地产是2002年开始涨，大家看有没有惊人的相似啊，而我们香港比日本晚多少年啊，晚十年，我们比香港晚多少年啊，十年，我们比日本呢，晚二十年。但是房子是不可能永远涨的，没有哪个国家的房子一直涨，大家看，日本的房价从1982年大涨到1987年，涨了多少年啊，5年，日本的房子整整涨了10倍，香港的房子从1992年大涨到1997年，涨了几年啊，5年也涨了10倍，我们深圳的房子从2002年大涨到2007年，也涨了5年，整整涨了11倍，但是房子不可能永远涨。我们看日本的房子，日本的房子到1987年涨到10倍，日本的房子贵到什么地方，把日本首都东京的房子卖掉可以把整个美国的房子买下来，所以日本人在1987年去美国把楼整栋整栋的买下来，买下来以后，美国人当时都惊死了。说美国将要被日本买走。在1987年日本人是用了2000亿，把美国最具有标志性的大厦洛克菲勒帝国大厦买下，买下以后日本人扛着国旗冲上去，把美国的国旗卸下来，一脚踢下去，插上日本的国旗，奏日本的国歌。日本人就说30多年前，我们被美国打败，现在我们打败美国，我们又回来了。美国人很愤怒，但是没办法，标志性的大厦被他们买走了。但是日本没有想到，在1987年日本的房子暴跌。到1993年，1993年日本人极度悲观失望的时候，没有想到他的房子强劲的反弹，在1994年日本人又拼命的买房子，没有想到1994年日本房子再次暴跌到1995年，从1987年到1995年，日本的房子整整跌了80%，到了1995年是什么情况？1987年日本人是用2000亿买走的洛克菲勒帝国大厦，到了1995年美国人多少钱买回来的，200亿就把它买回来了。而且美国人做的更绝，扛着一把斧头上去的，因为那个旗杆是木头的，连旗杆都砍断了，一脚把它踢下去，插上美国的国旗。美国怎么说？日本人打败我用了30多年，我们打败了日本就用了7年的时间把日本打回去。
我们看看香港，香港的房子在1992年发展到1997年，在1997年涨了10倍，香港人杀红了眼睛，谁相信香港的房子跌，我不是吹啊，我是成功的预测香港的房子在1997年跌，我在1997年1月份在香港的信报和香港的电视台发表演讲，我说房子很快就要暴跌，李嘉诚一看非常的愤怒，在香港的经济日报连续4天登广告，名字就叫，质问国世平教授。我跟李嘉诚公开的展开了论战，我说日本的房子涨了5年涨了10倍，遇到金融危机，日本的房子暴跌。香港的房子5年涨了10倍，遇到亚洲的金融危机，房子必跌无疑。国老师预测完全准确，香港的房子在1997年暴跌的到2003年，香港人极度的悲观失望，后来没想到房子强劲的反弹，在2004年香港人又拼命的买房子，没有想到房子第二次探底到2005年，从1997年到2005年，香港的房子整整跌了80%，在2005年李嘉诚又在香港经济日报整版的登广告，向国世平道歉，同时聘请我为李嘉诚公司的高级顾问。
我不是吹牛，我又是成功的预测中国的房子在2008年开始暴跌。我第一次对中国房地产发出警告是在2007年8月10号，在深圳的宇宙宾馆，深圳厅，1000多人听我讲，我说房子要跌，我说2008年房子要跌。我说为什么呢？日本的房子涨了5年涨了十倍，遇到金融危机房子跌。香港的涨了5年涨了十倍，遇到亚洲金融危机房子跌了。中国的房子涨了5年涨了十一倍，遇到美国的金融危机房子必跌无疑。我说中国人是羊群效应，房子越涨他越买，一旦跌，没有买的，所以我说深圳啊一定要提前卖房子，所以我建议深圳居民在2007年12份以前把你多余的房子坚决卖掉。最好把住的房子也卖掉，去租房子住。我老婆从来不听我的演讲，不知道怎么回事，跑来听我的演讲，听了我的演讲吓了我一大跳，回家的时候坐在我的车上满脸的愤怒。我说怎么回事，我没得罪了你啊，你怎么这么不开心，她就突然发作了，你这个人赚钱，是不是到了穷凶极恶的地步，你把多余的房子卖掉就行了，你怎么把住的房子也卖掉呢，将来什么都可以卖，将来也可以把老婆也卖掉呢。我说老婆是不能卖的，老婆也卖不出什么价格啊。我说老婆是有收藏价值的。你这个人怎么这么讲话，老婆的价值是收藏的。
2008年北京的房子像断崖一样跌了40%，上海的房子跌了最少，跌了30%；我们深圳的房子像断崖似的跌了30%，东莞的房子直接跌60%。但是，国老师犯了一个最重要的错误是什么，我没有想到我们国家的领导人这么乱来，太不像话。大家看看，日本的房子跌了几年，87到93几年，6年；香港的房子跌了几年，6年；我们国家的房子至少要跌4年吧，刚刚跌到第三个月，到来2009年3月份，中央像发神经一样宣布救市。这就是温家宝搞的4万亿投资。4万亿投资要命啊，我告诉你。张德江总理怎么说，中央失信于人。我们国家为此付出了极为高昂的代价。那时候地产商响应中央的号召，主动的把房价往下调，我们的地方政府，我们的老百姓配合中央不买房子，没有想到我们国家领导人这么乱来，4万亿投资救了地产一把。如果大家想一想，2008年让房子慢慢跌下来，我们不会有这么困难。非常可惜，现在中国老百姓都不相信中国房子会跌，但是我告诉大家，我今天负责任的告诉大家，中国老百姓再靠买房子赚钱的时代已经一去不复返了。为什么？房地产的格局已经发生了重大的变化。我告诉你，我们国家去年是多少，去年我们国家大中城市190个城市在这里，今年有多少，几十个，可能明年只有多少，才有50个，可能后面30个，最后20个，最后10个。深圳、北京、上海的房子可能最后跌，因为我是万科的高级顾问，我是李嘉诚公司的高级顾问。他问我，我说为什么深圳、北京、上海的房子泡沫最多，为什么最后跌，他说教授，你想想就知道了，要保卫中心城市，我们首先把四线城市房子卖掉，救三线的；如果三线救不了，卖掉三线救二线，二线还不行就卖二线救一线。如果一线崩盘了，中国就全崩盘了，但是我告诉你，不管你怎么卖，中国第一从今年开始，中国中央是什么，关门了，房地产的所得税20%，这是好吓人啊。香港的房地产所得税1.5%，房价涨，后来香港把房子所得税提到4.5%，房子不涨了，后来提到8.7%，房子开始暴跌。我们中国的房地产所得税是20%，这是个什么概念？在座的你以后买房子，如果房子不涨30%，你一分钱都赚不到，为什么，20%的交了所得税，还有5%的契税，你还要买房子，还要按揭吗？再交5%的按揭，你说房子涨30%多难涨啊，那房子难涨，你不赚钱，你还买房子干什么啊！那你说好，你买房子，你代我交税，我告诉你房地产所得税是直接税，直接税是不能转让的，只有间接税是可以转让的！比如说我把我的房子卖给赵总，赵总代我交了30万的税，他到税务局去举报，国教授的房产税是我交的，税务局把我抓起来，把钱退给他，还坐牢，那把房价涨上去。开玩笑，房子贵谁买你的。开玩笑嘛。我告诉你房子买不掉。我告诉你明年，今年是官年，明年就要打狗了。我们国家明年全方位征收房产税。中国的房产税是多少啊，0.6%-6%，如果中央想把房产税涨到6%是个什么概念，在座的你住一百万的房子，你一年交6万的税，你交就行了。国老师在深圳的房子700万，我一年要交42万的税，李嘉诚一年交的房产税是1700万，他的豪宅17个亿。我告诉你，到那个时候我们中国居民都要做一个选择，根据你的收入水平决定你住房的大小。
我们中国的老百姓真的很可怜，我们根本就不是买房子，我们是买房子的居住权，因为土地不是你的，我们就买了70年居住权，我想问大家，谁住满过70年，中国住满30年拔掉，美国、日本和欧洲的房子连土地都是你的，人家才买房子，日本的人口密度比中国大这么多，我刚刚从日本北海道回来，日本的北海道房子多便宜啊，1700元/平米，土地都是你的。我建议大家，我警告在座，房子很快就要崩盘，我警告在座的，如果这个时候你胆敢再去买房，你将成为中国房地产史上最后一批解放军，把别人彻底解放了，在上面站岗十年都下不来。
国老师在去年，我做的四个预测，三个预测全部应验。第一个预测，煤炭及大众商品价格很快就要暴跌，应验；我的第二预测，黄金很快就要暴跌，应验；我的第三预测，银行里缺钱，应验；我的第四预测，房地产很快就要崩盘，我们到明年看，看他怎么崩盘。
我们中国老百姓，又有一个煳涂的想法。教授，第一套房子不征房产税，你看，媒体报道，第一套房子不征房产税，谁说的，我在国务院内部做一个的演讲，我说谁敢自立政策，第一套房子不征房产税，只要中国宣布第一套房子不征房产税，中国保证有2亿对夫妻要宣布离婚。中国的是假离婚，你一套，我一套，我们中国人是什么都敢做的，那么中国有2亿对夫妻离婚，中国是全世界离婚率最高的国家，又有两亿对夫妻同居在一起，中国是全世界同居率最高的国家。创造一个世界丑闻。深圳2011年搞得限购令，深圳人那一个月离婚多少对啊，2万对夫妻，排长队离婚。我去看的时候，每个人都是面带微笑，你说哪里有离婚面带微笑的啊！都是很痛苦的事情啊，全是假的。现在深圳统计，那一个月离婚的2万对夫妻，多少对复合的，只有9000对复合，11000对自然解体。我告诉你，我们有好多的女的好笨哦，老公说，我们俩是假的假离婚，买房子，假离婚，你先出去，我买了房子你再回来复婚，这女的好笨哦，一分钱财产没拿跑出去了，没到两个星期男的和别人结婚了。她说我们俩不是假的吗？怎么搞真的了呀。最后到法庭告，法庭怎么判决，你跟你老公离婚合法离婚，你老公和别人结婚，合法结婚，最后这女的血本无归呀，我警告我们在座的女性啊，千万不要搞假离婚啊，不要假离婚变成真离婚，把老公趁机放跑了，如果万一要搞假离婚，你也让老公一个人出去吗？你控制住财产吗？
我建议大家，今年买一点股票，为什么，因为股票和房地产在国外都是两个并驾齐驱的。我们中国房地产长期在高位，我们的股票长期在低位，正不正常，绝对不正常，中央一定要把房地产打下来，价格。如果老百姓的股票不涨，中国老百姓的资产是不是要缩水啊，这是中央不愿意看到的。中央希望，房子调下来，股票涨上去。至少老百姓的资产没有缩水，如果中国的股票涨上去，房子跌了，中央一定要老百姓卖掉股票，抄底房地产，股票跌到这个地方，房地产涨到这个地方，就形成了房地产和股票的并驾齐驱。这是中央的战略意图。我告诉你，你在别的地方可以不听党的话，在投资方面一定要听党的话，因为共产党是最大的专家。中国的经济就是政治经济。
最大的地产商万达王健林深深的知道这一点。我今年春节到他家里过年，看到他的门联是怎么写的，左边是写：毛主席叫我革命我革命，右边是怎么写的：邓主席叫我赚钱我赚钱。横幅怎么写的：永远跟党走。大家想一想，2008年你如果听了党的话，要卖掉，你是不是抄底了。现在中央让你卖掉房子买股票，你把房子卖掉你可能又掏底了。但是我们中国老百姓就是不听党的话。党要你卖房子，你坚决不卖房子，要你买股票，你坚决不买股票；我告诉你今天的股票有一波非常好的行情，所以我建议大家明天开始。大家卖房子，买进股票。
那我们在座的就会说，教授，你说经济不好，股票反应经济吗？那么经济不好，股票怎么会涨呢，中国的股票什么时候反应过经济啊。美国的GDP上升170倍，美国的股票涨多少倍啊，600倍。我们的GDP上升多少倍啊，280倍，我们的股票上升为0。上届证监会主席名字叫尚福林，上升的幅度为零。所以今天我要跟大家讲，卖掉房子，买股票。明年如果股票涨上去了，房子跌了，再请我演讲，我让大家卖掉股票抄底房地产。（BH）
Labels: Forum, Real Estate, Reference
INDY - iShares S&P India Nifty 50 Index ETF
Sell stop order triggered at 21.28 and filled at 21.27 with profit last night. SMA50 100 200 trending downwards and SMA50 less than SMA100 less than SAM200, price touched intermediate resistance SMA50 and then dropped below low of previous day in a steep short term rebound.
Labels: ETF, Live Trading Records
EWM - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF
Sell stop order triggered at 15.00 and filled at 15.00 with profit last night. SMA50 100 200 trending downwards and SMA50 less than SMA100 less than SAM200, price touched intermediate resistance SMA50 and then dropped below low of previous day in a steep short term rebound.
Labels: ETF, Live Trading Records
12 September 2013
EWS - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF
Sold EWS at 12.92 with profit, SMA50 100 200 trending downwards and SMA50 less than SMA100 less than SAM200, price touched intermediate resistance SMA50 and then dropped below low of previous day in a steep short term rebound.
Labels: ETF, Live Trading Records
10 September 2013
You Can’t Make Short-Term Predictions In Investing
By Ser Jing Chong - September 10, 2013
Wouldn’t it be great if we could always have a clear picture of how the markets are going to be like one or two years out into the future? That way, we can always position ourselves carefully to reap outsized rewards in double-quick time. Thing is, no one can.
The Bad News: You Can’t Predict
Investment firm Franklin Templeton Investments conducted its 2012 Global Investor Sentiment Survey (link opens a PDF) on February last year where 20,632 individuals across 19 countries (including USA, Germany, UK, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore) were polled on their “outlook and perceptions of investing within and outside their home countries.”
If I were to focus on us Singaporeans, the survey found that the top three asset classes that we expected to do well in 2012 were: 1) Precious Metals, 2) Non-Metal Commodities, and 3) Real Estate. Given that the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) ended 2011 with an annual decline of 17%, you might not be surprised to see investors shunning the stock market here and hoping other asset classes would be able to help them build wealth.
But, as I’m going to show shortly, the expectations of the polled-investors here were just plain wrong.
This is how some of the asset classes – that we expected to do well in the year – actually did in 2012:
Asset Price Feb 2012 Dec 2012 Change
Gold (Precious Metal) S$2183 S$2046 -6.3%
Silver (Precious Metal) S$43 S$39 -9.2%
Crude Oil (Non-Metal Commodities) S$141 S$124 -12.6%
Commodity Price Index 196 182 -6.8%
Singapore Housing Index (Real Estate)** 247 256 3.6%
** The Singapore Housing Index data for Feb 2012 and Dec 2012 are for the first quarter of 2012 and the last quarter of 2012 respectively.
Sources: For Gold price, see Gold Price Network. For Silver price, see Index Mundi. For Crude Oil price, see Index Mundi. For Commodity Price Index, see Index Mundi. For Singapore Housing Index, see Trading Economics.
And now for the kicker: the most accessible barometer for our general stock market, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI), actually ended 2012 with an 18% gain. Investors who invested in plain-vanilla STI-trackers like the SPDR STI ETF (SGX: ES3) and Nikko AM Singapore STI ETF (SGX: G3B) would have gotten returns very similar to that of the index after deduction of relevant fees and expenses.
Those who positioned themselves into precious metals, commodities or real-estate investments hoping to bag nice gains last year would have done much better by simply buying an index tracker that mimics the STI.
More Bad News Showing You Can’t Predict…
Lest you think the results of the Franklin Templeton survey are a one-off, consider this: JP Morgan found that its JP Morgan Investor Confidence Index (JPMICI) was at 134 in January 2011, in effect telling us that “investors showed strong levels of optimism” back then. JP Morgan went on to add that “investors expect[ed] the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) to increase in the next six months.”
I guess you should know what happens next. The STI went on to decline by 3.6% from 3,236 points at the start of Jan 2011 to 3,120 points at the end of June 2011. Unfortunately, “strong levels of optimism” and an expectation for the STI to increase does not mean that reality will conform.
If we were to go further back in time, hardly anyone got it right by calling out in advance, the recession that occurred in 2008 caused by the Great Financial Crisis that started in 2007, and the subsequent stupendous stock market rebound that took place in early 2009.
So, what do all these tell us? The simple takeaway is that we’re poor, perhaps very poor, at predicting short-term price movements in the markets.
Does It Matter?
But, does it make a difference to us to know we’re simply inept at predictions? Of course it does!
Stock market investors in the USA suffered extremely poor returns compared to the overall market because of a mistaken belief in their ability to time the market by making short-term predictions on price movements in order to catch exact tops and bottoms.
If we know exactly how bad we are at guessing where the STI, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, orwill be in the next day, week, month or even year, perhaps we can improve our investment returns by doing things differently.
Doing Things Differently
By ‘different’, I mean we could adopt the long-term view. Over the past 25 years since the start of 1988, the STI has given us an average annualised return of around 7% or more (inclusive of dividends). An investor need not have to frenetically trade in-and-out of the index, nor waste precious mental effort to make poor guesses about where the index will be in the near future, in order to enjoy the 7% returns from the STI. All he had to do was to buy… and hold.
Even individual shares like Jardine Matheson Holdings (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings (SGX: J37) and Super Group (SGX: S10) have made investors many, many, times their original investment over the past 10-plus years since Jan 2013 by growing their sales and profits, which in turn increases the intrinsic value of their businesses. And again, all the investor had to do then, after a careful appraisal of these companies’ businesses, was to buy and hold.
Foolish Bottom Line
The great scientist Albert Einstein was reputedly quoted as saying that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” History and research has shown us that we’re simply no good at making predictions, so why bother to continue doing so?
I know I wouldn’t want to be labelled as insane by Einstein. Would you?
Wouldn’t it be great if we could always have a clear picture of how the markets are going to be like one or two years out into the future? That way, we can always position ourselves carefully to reap outsized rewards in double-quick time. Thing is, no one can.
The Bad News: You Can’t Predict
Investment firm Franklin Templeton Investments conducted its 2012 Global Investor Sentiment Survey (link opens a PDF) on February last year where 20,632 individuals across 19 countries (including USA, Germany, UK, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore) were polled on their “outlook and perceptions of investing within and outside their home countries.”
If I were to focus on us Singaporeans, the survey found that the top three asset classes that we expected to do well in 2012 were: 1) Precious Metals, 2) Non-Metal Commodities, and 3) Real Estate. Given that the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) ended 2011 with an annual decline of 17%, you might not be surprised to see investors shunning the stock market here and hoping other asset classes would be able to help them build wealth.
But, as I’m going to show shortly, the expectations of the polled-investors here were just plain wrong.
This is how some of the asset classes – that we expected to do well in the year – actually did in 2012:
Asset Price Feb 2012 Dec 2012 Change
Gold (Precious Metal) S$2183 S$2046 -6.3%
Silver (Precious Metal) S$43 S$39 -9.2%
Crude Oil (Non-Metal Commodities) S$141 S$124 -12.6%
Commodity Price Index 196 182 -6.8%
Singapore Housing Index (Real Estate)** 247 256 3.6%
** The Singapore Housing Index data for Feb 2012 and Dec 2012 are for the first quarter of 2012 and the last quarter of 2012 respectively.
Sources: For Gold price, see Gold Price Network. For Silver price, see Index Mundi. For Crude Oil price, see Index Mundi. For Commodity Price Index, see Index Mundi. For Singapore Housing Index, see Trading Economics.
And now for the kicker: the most accessible barometer for our general stock market, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI), actually ended 2012 with an 18% gain. Investors who invested in plain-vanilla STI-trackers like the SPDR STI ETF (SGX: ES3) and Nikko AM Singapore STI ETF (SGX: G3B) would have gotten returns very similar to that of the index after deduction of relevant fees and expenses.
Those who positioned themselves into precious metals, commodities or real-estate investments hoping to bag nice gains last year would have done much better by simply buying an index tracker that mimics the STI.
More Bad News Showing You Can’t Predict…
Lest you think the results of the Franklin Templeton survey are a one-off, consider this: JP Morgan found that its JP Morgan Investor Confidence Index (JPMICI) was at 134 in January 2011, in effect telling us that “investors showed strong levels of optimism” back then. JP Morgan went on to add that “investors expect[ed] the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) to increase in the next six months.”
I guess you should know what happens next. The STI went on to decline by 3.6% from 3,236 points at the start of Jan 2011 to 3,120 points at the end of June 2011. Unfortunately, “strong levels of optimism” and an expectation for the STI to increase does not mean that reality will conform.
If we were to go further back in time, hardly anyone got it right by calling out in advance, the recession that occurred in 2008 caused by the Great Financial Crisis that started in 2007, and the subsequent stupendous stock market rebound that took place in early 2009.
So, what do all these tell us? The simple takeaway is that we’re poor, perhaps very poor, at predicting short-term price movements in the markets.
Does It Matter?
But, does it make a difference to us to know we’re simply inept at predictions? Of course it does!
Stock market investors in the USA suffered extremely poor returns compared to the overall market because of a mistaken belief in their ability to time the market by making short-term predictions on price movements in order to catch exact tops and bottoms.
If we know exactly how bad we are at guessing where the STI, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, or
Doing Things Differently
By ‘different’, I mean we could adopt the long-term view. Over the past 25 years since the start of 1988, the STI has given us an average annualised return of around 7% or more (inclusive of dividends). An investor need not have to frenetically trade in-and-out of the index, nor waste precious mental effort to make poor guesses about where the index will be in the near future, in order to enjoy the 7% returns from the STI. All he had to do was to buy… and hold.
Even individual shares like Jardine Matheson Holdings (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings (SGX: J37) and Super Group (SGX: S10) have made investors many, many, times their original investment over the past 10-plus years since Jan 2013 by growing their sales and profits, which in turn increases the intrinsic value of their businesses. And again, all the investor had to do then, after a careful appraisal of these companies’ businesses, was to buy and hold.
Foolish Bottom Line
The great scientist Albert Einstein was reputedly quoted as saying that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” History and research has shown us that we’re simply no good at making predictions, so why bother to continue doing so?
I know I wouldn’t want to be labelled as insane by Einstein. Would you?
Do not plan to use fund in CPF Ordinary Account to reduce housing loan
I do not plan to use fund in CPF Ordinary Account to reduce housing loan because it can be used to buy STI ETF when it drops by 50% or more and get a much better potential return (100%!) in the future.
Labels: plan, STI ETF, Thoughts
VWO - VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKET ETF
Limit sell order filled at 40.24 with profit. This is the order placed on around 01 Aug 2013 and not filled until yesterday.
Labels: ETF, Live Trading Records
09 September 2013
Impact of War on Stocks and Oil
The threat of U.S. military action in Syria has put pressure on stock prices and sent oil higher. But if history holds, the actual start of an intervention will quickly reverse those moves.
"It's not that it's welcome, but once it gets underway, you can quantify what the situation might look like," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery. "When you're left in the dark about when it will start, what will be the result, it gives investors trepidation."
U.S. stocks fell 2% last week after Secretary of State John Kerry said last Monday that it was "undeniable" that Syria had used chemical weapons. Oil climbed 2%.
Syria has very little oil exports. But the concern in world markets is that U.S. military action there could spark a broader Middle East conflict.
Here was the impact on financial markets in past Middle East conflicts.
1991: Operation Desert Storm
In the two weeks leading up to Congressional authorization of Operation Desert Storm in early 1991, the S&P 500 index fell nearly 5% and oil jumped 12.5%.
One of the largest one-day drops in oil prices occurred on Jan. 17, 1991, the day after the United States launched an air campaign in Iraq. On that day, prices plunged 33% and the S&P 500 gained 3.7%
2003: The Iraq war
Oil prices rose steadily in the three months before fighting in Iraq began on March 19, 2003.
Oil climbed nearly 40%, from $18 a barrel in early December to $25 on March 18. The S&P fell 11% during the same period.
Oil plunged 24% and the S&P rebounded 8% in the week after President Bush issued his final ultimatum to Saddam Hussein on March 16.
2011: Libya
The pattern held in the month before the U.S. intervention in the Libyan civil war on March 19, 2011: Stocks fell 5% and oil climbed 12%.
Stocks rebounded after the fighting started, rising 1.5% the first day of trading after military action began, and up 4% by the end of the month.
In this case oil prices continued to rise in the first weeks of military action, but they reached a peak a month after the start of U.S. action. But they then started falling steadily, declining 24% by the time rebel forces gained control of the country four months later.
Moral (by TopTrader) - Buy oils when war is expected to happen, sell it when war is about to happen; Sell stocks when war is expected to happen, buy them when war is impending.
"It's not that it's welcome, but once it gets underway, you can quantify what the situation might look like," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery. "When you're left in the dark about when it will start, what will be the result, it gives investors trepidation."
U.S. stocks fell 2% last week after Secretary of State John Kerry said last Monday that it was "undeniable" that Syria had used chemical weapons. Oil climbed 2%.
Syria has very little oil exports. But the concern in world markets is that U.S. military action there could spark a broader Middle East conflict.
Here was the impact on financial markets in past Middle East conflicts.
1991: Operation Desert Storm
In the two weeks leading up to Congressional authorization of Operation Desert Storm in early 1991, the S&P 500 index fell nearly 5% and oil jumped 12.5%.
One of the largest one-day drops in oil prices occurred on Jan. 17, 1991, the day after the United States launched an air campaign in Iraq. On that day, prices plunged 33% and the S&P 500 gained 3.7%
2003: The Iraq war
Oil prices rose steadily in the three months before fighting in Iraq began on March 19, 2003.
Oil climbed nearly 40%, from $18 a barrel in early December to $25 on March 18. The S&P fell 11% during the same period.
Oil plunged 24% and the S&P rebounded 8% in the week after President Bush issued his final ultimatum to Saddam Hussein on March 16.
2011: Libya
The pattern held in the month before the U.S. intervention in the Libyan civil war on March 19, 2011: Stocks fell 5% and oil climbed 12%.
Stocks rebounded after the fighting started, rising 1.5% the first day of trading after military action began, and up 4% by the end of the month.
In this case oil prices continued to rise in the first weeks of military action, but they reached a peak a month after the start of U.S. action. But they then started falling steadily, declining 24% by the time rebel forces gained control of the country four months later.
Moral (by TopTrader) - Buy oils when war is expected to happen, sell it when war is about to happen; Sell stocks when war is expected to happen, buy them when war is impending.
Labels: Historical Teachings
十年股海投资心得
来源: 牛经沧海 于 2013-09-07
自九二年投资美国共同资金，九七年投资美国股市，零四年投资A股， 几度沉浮，曾经沧海。赶上经年不遇的纳市疯牛，亦曾创三年增值十数倍的回报， 宣告"退休"。却终究初生牛犊，未识江湖风恶，纸上富贵，一朝散尽。三年纳市狂泻， 5150 至 1100，三十年代大萧条也不过如此耳。历此一劫，方知吾非股神，彼非股神，机遇造神而已。
零四年投资A股， 皆因A股与中国经济的腾飞相背离。我已不再奢望速富，但求略胜大盘。选股思路删繁就简，惟三原则而已。
选股三原则
绩优: 只选净利润百强公司。凡有业绩支撑，跌时缓于大市，有逃顶的可能。想好退路，才可出击。净利润百强公司大致可代表国民经济大势。这些公司犹如人之青壮年，是赚钱的高位稳定期。虽然您可能错一些爆发的苗苗，但可靠性极重要。投资追求的是最高数学期望回报，而不是极大值。
高效: 只选净利润百强之中净资产收益率在本行业领先的公司。公司光赚钱还不够，赚钱不能只看绝对数多少，还要看这个公司每投资一块钱，在一年以内能赚回多少。
分散: 只选净利润百强之中净资产收益率在本行业领先的公司， 但一个行业选股不超过两个。大市热点时常会变。最聪明的人能抓住每一个热点，最遭糕的人能抓错每一个热点。我没有那么聪明，也不想做那种最遭糕的人，只好适当分散，等待大市热点的光顾。
选股重要， 操作往往更为关键。操作上我也只能守著三条最简单的要点:
操作三要点
多看: 投资股市不花 精力是不智。有人可能买了万科，从来没去理它，结果赚了大钱。千万不要因此认为不花精力反而更好，不要把小概率事件当成必然规律。股市与股票是时间与无数 个大小事件的函数。要想在股市投资上获得回报，您必得付出持之以恒的劳动。遭糕的是，这种劳动的付出并不能保证您有所回报，它只一项必要条件罢了。这就是 资本创造价值与劳动了创造价值的不同规律。多看作为资本创造价值一个组成部分，能够有效地减少投资失误，强化投资收益，猎获新兴投资题材，把握大势，推断 大盘的方向，时间与空间。日积月累的多看，为必要的少动时动在点子上，譬如加仓，减仓，换股。我每天花二至三小时，遍览新浪，网易， 中 国证卷等财经网站。看的时候以数据与事实为重点，兼读分析评论。要注意辨析各家论点正误真伪，不要盲从专家宏论，更不要听信股神蛊惑。股市里没有救世主。 股市专家相较其它各行各业中的专家是权威性最低的。这是因为投资股市致胜不全靠技术与理论，就像文艺评论家未必能创作经世之作。评论家分析别人的作品头头 是道，那是从技术与理论而言，他们有足够的资历。创作就是另外一件事了。再譬如工程师认为某座桥会倒塌，我就会绕那座桥，因为通过仿真计算，一名称职的工 程师是可以判断某座桥会不会倒塌。股市专家还做不到这程度。如果有人说他能准确预知大盘起落的时间与空间，他或者是骗子，或者是无知，最好的情形是碰巧。 本人在华尔街做事已十余载，有此等好事，岂能一无所知。无论哪种情形， 都不值得信以为真，顶多作个参考。虽然没有人能预知大盘起落的时间与空间，但也不是一点规律没有。股市专家总也是专家，他们的工作还是很有价值的，只要不过分盲从， 总是兼听则明，开卷有益。
少动: 真正的牛市总是涨得慢，跌得快。小的波浪不要去动，大的波浪不要全动。作小波浪的容易赚小利而失去大机会。大波浪当然希望能做对方向，时间与空间。可惜我办不到，我因此也不追求那种境界。何必硬要自己去摘取力不能及的星星呢? 投资不是竞赛，不值得去争第一。做到与大盘同等或略胜的业绩，您就算成功了，因为您好过一半以上的对手。如果能作对大浪中一部分，您就算很成功了。譬如您529或620逃了，605或706又进了，您或已达到大盘双倍的回报。我不成，227逃了，但不是大波，故不该逃。529或620该逃了， 可 我错失良机。如果是一场竞赛，我就是输家。可就投资而言，我仍是赢家，因为我终究还是胜过大盘。少动的另一原因是可以避免步步皆错的恶梦。虽不求最好，但 务必不要最差。可以说放弃强求最好，就是为了免遭滑铁泸，以退为进之策也。少动还有一利，就是节省交易费用。每省下一个百分点的交易费，就提高了二至三个 百分点的年化回率。
顺势: 投资股市需顺势而为。投资如同作人。血气方刚的时候，认为别人都错了，就自己正确，结果举步维艰，很不开心。刚作股票时也一样，专捡大跌的股票。结果我的股票赖在地板， 总也不动。后来逐渐领悟到，大势难违。投资股市的目的是赢利，不是当英雄。就算您是对的，只要一日别人不认同，您就得被套着，没商量。在股市里，时间就是钱，资本是有成本的。更为可悲的是，若是终于挨到春暖花开，那支死守一年半载的冤家乌鸦变凤凰之日， 只 可恨您又出手太早，倒让那顺势而为之人白拈了个巧。顺势并非追高杀跌，关键在于既要有自己的原则，又要避免刚愎自用，错失机遇。对个股要顺势，对大市而 言，更要顺势。大市趋淡，再好的个股也难免受累。大市做多，常常鸡犬升天。只要坚守绩优，高效，分散的选股持股原则，就会跌时跌得迟一点，浅一点，涨时 涨得早一点，久一点。不要轻看这一点一点的差异，成功的投资就是由它们积聚起来的。这一点点优势，给予您自信，给予您回报。
十年股海浮沉，收获不过点滴。虽句句肺腑，未必就能对您略有帮助。
Labels: Reference, Stock Trading System
08 September 2013
Music
Labels: Music
Stock Trading System
Labels: Stock Trading System
04 September 2013
期货交易经典语录
来源: snowboy128 于 09-07-22
理念篇
一、我永远只能是个观察者，而不是个控制者。
二、要想成为赢家就要从失败中找，而不是从胜利中找。因为失败者会选择变异，而胜利者却仰仗胜利而拒绝改变。这就是本质原因。
三、等候风险度有限而潜藏巨大收益的局面－－这才是投资的真正内涵。
四、我们应当树立这样的观念：趋势是第一位的，价格反而是第二位的。
五、美国证券投资上的名言：“多头和空头都可以在华尔街证券市场发大财，只有贪得无厌的人是例外。”
六、成功的人之所以成功，是因为他们总在想如何能够不失败；失败的人之所以失败，是因为他们太想成功。
七、期货市场的初段是勤奋和技艺，中段是智慧和心态，高段是人性和道德。
八、坚忍，耐心，信心并顽强执着地积累成功，这才是职业的交易态度。
九、成功必然来自于坚持正确的习惯方法和不断完善的性格修炼。
十、大自然本身是由规律性和大部分随机性组成，任何想完全、彻底、精确地把握世界的想法，都是狂妄、无知和愚蠢的表现。追求完美就是表现形式之一。“谋事在人，成事在天”，于人，我们讲是缘分而非最好；于事，我们讲究适应，能改变的是自己而非寄予外界提供。
十一、正确分析预测只是成功投资的第一步，成功投资的基础更需要严格的风险管理（仓位管理和止损管理），严谨的自我心理和情绪控制（宠辱不惊，处惊不变）。
十二、“把损失放在心上，利润就会照看好自己”。（克罗）
十三、亏钱与否和水平有关，赚钱多少和性格有关。
十四、选择市场的直接后果就是选择了风险，一切所谓的“安全”、“稳妥”都是相对的和有限的。
十五、经历和经验绝对是两回事：你可以什么都经历过、但未必注定就因此拥有丰富的经验--尽管经验一定来自经历。
十六、能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人很罕见，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。
十七、专业的交易者，他首先是个具备丰富内心世界和涵养的人。
十八、任何时候忘记了去尊重市场，都会铸下大错。
十九、盯住止损，止损是自己控制的；不考虑利润，因为利润是由市场控制的！
二十、成功的交易者是技巧、心态和德行的统一，三者不可分离。
方法篇
一、进场和出场的条件是不对等的。进场的理由必须是充分的、审慎的，有必胜把握的；但是，出场却不同，理由可以是简单的、朦胧的，甚至符合一些必要条件就行。
二、交易体系是在操作中总结经市场验证的方法，而盘感、技巧往往与自己的体系一致。交易者的系统体现了交易者自己的交易思想：对市场的认知、出入市的条件、损失的处理、风险承受能力的大小，以及资金管理等等，而不是简单的买卖。
三、过分看重预测可谓是期货市场上最普遍也是最严重的错误之一。
四、依重要性的程度来看，心理控制第一，风险管理第二，分析技能最次。
五、 从主观情绪型交易者质变到客观系统型交易者是长期积累沉淀升华的结果：无意识----意识到---做到----做好----坚持----习惯----融会贯通----忘记----大成。
六、小钱靠技术（聪明），大钱靠意志（智慧）。长线（智慧）判方向，短线（聪明）找时机。
七、承认自己不太了解市场，却偏偏因此而去做所谓的“短线”、这基本属于“找死”；在做所谓的“短线”时，因为被套而改为做“长线”则肯定属于“等死”。
八、交易的原则是：（1）顺着趋势的方向交易；（2）抱紧盈利的头寸，砍掉亏损的头寸。
九、赚大钱不靠解盘，而是靠评估整个市场和市场趋势。
十、在多头市场里，你的做法就是买进和紧抱，一直到你看到多头市场正在结束时为止。要这样做，你必须用自己的头脑和眼光，
十一、任何人所能学到的一个最有帮助的事情，是放弃最后一档——或第一档。这两档是世界上最昂贵的东西。
十二、人们常说一句话，在期货市场中，纪律和心态控制重于一切。然而，我却要不客气的指出，这一切的前提，是你必须要有一套完善、经过市场考验的交易系统，否则，就有流于空谈的危险。
十三、各类技术都有他相应最擅长的场合和成功率，互为验证，取长补短，是适当使用技术分析的关键。
十四、其实，预测系统只是交易系统中很小的一部分。而且，盈利的大小和预测对错也并非总是成正比。顺势才是关键。我有个朋友，他几乎从来就不预测，只跟随趋势，永远在右侧交易。
十五、一切皆平常。当你用一颗宽容的心去和别人交往的是,你也会得到许多宽容。同时当你对市场宽容的时候,市场会给你带来收益。
十六、成功的交易者总是张着两只眼，一只望着市场，一只永远望着自己。 任何时候，最大的敌人，就是你自己。 校正自己，永远比观察市场重要。
十七、计划你的交易，交易你的计划。
十八、耐心比决心重要。
理念篇
一、我永远只能是个观察者，而不是个控制者。
二、要想成为赢家就要从失败中找，而不是从胜利中找。因为失败者会选择变异，而胜利者却仰仗胜利而拒绝改变。这就是本质原因。
三、等候风险度有限而潜藏巨大收益的局面－－这才是投资的真正内涵。
四、我们应当树立这样的观念：趋势是第一位的，价格反而是第二位的。
五、美国证券投资上的名言：“多头和空头都可以在华尔街证券市场发大财，只有贪得无厌的人是例外。”
六、成功的人之所以成功，是因为他们总在想如何能够不失败；失败的人之所以失败，是因为他们太想成功。
七、期货市场的初段是勤奋和技艺，中段是智慧和心态，高段是人性和道德。
八、坚忍，耐心，信心并顽强执着地积累成功，这才是职业的交易态度。
九、成功必然来自于坚持正确的习惯方法和不断完善的性格修炼。
十、大自然本身是由规律性和大部分随机性组成，任何想完全、彻底、精确地把握世界的想法，都是狂妄、无知和愚蠢的表现。追求完美就是表现形式之一。“谋事在人，成事在天”，于人，我们讲是缘分而非最好；于事，我们讲究适应，能改变的是自己而非寄予外界提供。
十一、正确分析预测只是成功投资的第一步，成功投资的基础更需要严格的风险管理（仓位管理和止损管理），严谨的自我心理和情绪控制（宠辱不惊，处惊不变）。
十二、“把损失放在心上，利润就会照看好自己”。（克罗）
十三、亏钱与否和水平有关，赚钱多少和性格有关。
十四、选择市场的直接后果就是选择了风险，一切所谓的“安全”、“稳妥”都是相对的和有限的。
十五、经历和经验绝对是两回事：你可以什么都经历过、但未必注定就因此拥有丰富的经验--尽管经验一定来自经历。
十六、能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人很罕见，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。
十七、专业的交易者，他首先是个具备丰富内心世界和涵养的人。
十八、任何时候忘记了去尊重市场，都会铸下大错。
十九、盯住止损，止损是自己控制的；不考虑利润，因为利润是由市场控制的！
二十、成功的交易者是技巧、心态和德行的统一，三者不可分离。
方法篇
一、进场和出场的条件是不对等的。进场的理由必须是充分的、审慎的，有必胜把握的；但是，出场却不同，理由可以是简单的、朦胧的，甚至符合一些必要条件就行。
二、交易体系是在操作中总结经市场验证的方法，而盘感、技巧往往与自己的体系一致。交易者的系统体现了交易者自己的交易思想：对市场的认知、出入市的条件、损失的处理、风险承受能力的大小，以及资金管理等等，而不是简单的买卖。
三、过分看重预测可谓是期货市场上最普遍也是最严重的错误之一。
四、依重要性的程度来看，心理控制第一，风险管理第二，分析技能最次。
五、 从主观情绪型交易者质变到客观系统型交易者是长期积累沉淀升华的结果：无意识----意识到---做到----做好----坚持----习惯----融会贯通----忘记----大成。
六、小钱靠技术（聪明），大钱靠意志（智慧）。长线（智慧）判方向，短线（聪明）找时机。
七、承认自己不太了解市场，却偏偏因此而去做所谓的“短线”、这基本属于“找死”；在做所谓的“短线”时，因为被套而改为做“长线”则肯定属于“等死”。
八、交易的原则是：（1）顺着趋势的方向交易；（2）抱紧盈利的头寸，砍掉亏损的头寸。
九、赚大钱不靠解盘，而是靠评估整个市场和市场趋势。
十、在多头市场里，你的做法就是买进和紧抱，一直到你看到多头市场正在结束时为止。要这样做，你必须用自己的头脑和眼光，
十一、任何人所能学到的一个最有帮助的事情，是放弃最后一档——或第一档。这两档是世界上最昂贵的东西。
十二、人们常说一句话，在期货市场中，纪律和心态控制重于一切。然而，我却要不客气的指出，这一切的前提，是你必须要有一套完善、经过市场考验的交易系统，否则，就有流于空谈的危险。
十三、各类技术都有他相应最擅长的场合和成功率，互为验证，取长补短，是适当使用技术分析的关键。
十四、其实，预测系统只是交易系统中很小的一部分。而且，盈利的大小和预测对错也并非总是成正比。顺势才是关键。我有个朋友，他几乎从来就不预测，只跟随趋势，永远在右侧交易。
十五、一切皆平常。当你用一颗宽容的心去和别人交往的是,你也会得到许多宽容。同时当你对市场宽容的时候,市场会给你带来收益。
十六、成功的交易者总是张着两只眼，一只望着市场，一只永远望着自己。 任何时候，最大的敌人，就是你自己。 校正自己，永远比观察市场重要。
十七、计划你的交易，交易你的计划。
十八、耐心比决心重要。
Labels: Futures Trading, Reference, Risk Management, Stock Trading System
G3B - NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF 100
Accumulated G3B - NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF 100 at 3.10 on 04 Sep 2013.
Daily chart RSI 14 dropped to below 20. RSI at 19.2 at yesterday's close.
It is my plan to keep on accumulating STI ETF whenever the market looks bleak or pessimistic.
Daily chart RSI 14 dropped to below 20. RSI at 19.2 at yesterday's close.
It is my plan to keep on accumulating STI ETF whenever the market looks bleak or pessimistic.
Labels: ETF, Live Trading Records, plan, STI ETF
