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30 January 2016

 

国际顶级投资者:熊市中别套现离场 最佳策略是买股票

熊来了!

熊市中应采用什么样的交易策略?当全球市场哀鸿遍野时,权威财经杂志《巴伦周刊》发表专栏文章称,熊市中依然要买股票,这是最佳的投资策略。以下为全文:

熊市中最佳的投资策略就是继续投资股市。

我知道这听上去像是疯了。在股市暴跌时继续投资真的有意义么?

根据赫伯特金融摘要追踪的顶尖价值投资者的投资表现,的确是的。即使熊市已经开始,如果投资者现在开始选择套现离场,赫伯特金融摘要预测到投资者未来十年的收益表现最多只是平庸的。

我通过过去两次股市从最高点跌入熊市追踪到了在此期间表现最好的一些投资者。两次熊市分别为金融危机前的2007年10月和互联网泡沫破裂前的2000年3月

如果你在熊市时套现离场时,那么你的收益将不会比留在股市高。SPDR标准普尔500指数EFT在2000-2002年的熊市中下跌了近50%,2007年至2009年下跌了近57%。两次熊市所带来的净效果,即使中间存在牛市,标普500指数自2000年3月以来的年收益率也仅为4.1%,低于历史收益水平的一半。

而那些赫伯特金融摘要追踪的在熊市中没有投资股票类资产或持有的现金的投资者不在收益最高的投资者之列。原因有很多,但是主要是因为在股市触底时他们没有重回股市。这些投资者错过了市场在触底之后的大涨,为在熊市时套现离场时付出了代价。

我知道很多人都很难接受这一观点——即使你可以洞察市场的顶部但是你仍然无法打败市场。事实上,我的很多客户都不相信我说的话。我将通过一些数据来展示我观点的正确性。

同时,让我们看看那些在熊市时表现最好的投资者的投资策略。

首先,2000年3月以来收益率最高的是Marc Johnson,年收益率达到10.9%。Marc Johnson的投资收益率来自于他对于市场中股票的精挑细选而不是找准进入市场的时间点。Johnson对于市场进行反弹充满信心。他写到,“一些观察家正在提醒和警告人们注意市场的回调和熊市。他们将市场的下跌看作灾难。我们的看法是不同的:股市的下跌带来了绝佳的买入机会”。

投资收益率排名第二的Kellet Wright与Johnson有着相似的观点。他写到,“我认为市场只是在抄底,美联储援助计划和欧央行量化宽松计划下做去年夏天应该做的事情。能源价格最终将会企稳并找到自己的底部。阳光最终将会穿过乌云。好公司一定具有很好的价值。”

事实上,2000年3月以来表现最好的前五名投资者目前都是全仓投入的状态,而且每个人都已经持续这么做达15年之久。同样的事情也出现在2007年10月以来投资表现最好的前三位投资者身上。

除了在熊市时留在市场中,这些投资者都偏爱价值股票——价格低于公司真实价值的股票。那些在熊市时亏损情况好于其他高增长的股票。此外,价值股票通常都有很好的股息,这至少减轻了熊市所带来的纸面损失。



顶级投资者青睐的美股(股息都很高)

我用图表展示了这些顶级投资者青睐的价值股票,这些股票至少有2000年3月以来5位最佳表现的投资者中的两人推荐。此外,这些股票的股息率至少达到4%。

为什么投资者无法通过判断进出市场的时间来获利呢?

现在让我来回应那些抵制在熊市继续投资观点的投资者

以下的发现都是基于赫伯特金融摘要追踪的投资案例和独立追踪的上百个股市时机投资策略。这些例子都显示成功提高全面投资策略的可能性是极低的。

1,低于四分之一的受追踪时机投资者在2009年3月9日时熊市的仓位要高于2007年10月9日高点。这对于时机投资者来说本应该是一个好机会。而时机投资者可能会在市场底部仅比顶部高1%的情况下清仓。但是仅有24%的市场时机投资者能够清仓,而48%的投资者的选时机择要比随机的表现还要差。这就是一些逆向投资者所做的。当然,大部分时机投资者都是在应该看多时看空,反之亦然。

2,仅仅6%的时机投资者“准确”抓住了2007年-2009年熊市的顶部和底部。这一比例太低了,一般来说95%的概率就可以让我们断定一件事情。从数据上我们可以说,没有一个时机投资者准确抓住了市场的顶部和底部。因为这一比例是根据一个非常宽松的标准计算出来的:在2007年10月市场达到顶部的一个月时间内减仓25%和在2009年3月市场触底一个月内加仓的投资者比例。

3,仅仅9%的时机投资者在随后牛市中的仓位要高于2007年-2009年熊市期间的仓位。这是衡量时机投资者抓时机能力的好办法,因为这直接揭示了问题的核心。信不信随你,仅9%的受追踪时机投资者的在2009年3月市场触底后17个月内的仓位高于触底时仓位至少50%。更令人失望的是,54%的赫伯特金融摘要追踪的投资策略在熊市中的仓位要高于之后牛市前17个月中的仓位,这与你需找的时机投资者恰恰相反。

4,不到一半的时机投资者在2000-2002年熊市中幸存。为了区分运气和技巧,我们需要看看有多少在大萧条下成功的时机投资者在其他熊市中也获得了成功。这一数字很不理想,不到一半的投资者在上一次的熊市中能够全身而退。(从2000年3月到2007年10月)。

那些认为这一次股市下跌与之前是不一样的,并认为将股票套现或选择其他的替代投资选择,例如债券或黄金的投资者,你是在几乎所有的职业时机投资者都已经失败的情况下下注。这是个人希望战胜历史经验的结果。一个更安全的赌注是在熊市中承受损失,这样在牛市到来时才会有100%的回报。

这些并不意味着我们是在对于熊市带来的损失进行最小化或是从情感上要求人们必须继续投资。但是赫伯特金融摘要的数据可以在熊市时给继续投资的投资者带来一丝安慰:即使不可能打败每一个时机投资者,但是大部分的情况下你都会是笑到最后的那个人。

29 January 2016

 

STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES IDX FUND

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28 January 2016

 

得州传奇石油大亨:他在石油泡沫破灭中欢笑

导读:《福布斯》最新一期封面文章是德克萨斯石油天然气行业大亨特雷弗-里斯-琼斯的发家史。琼斯七年脱手七笔交易,进账70亿美元。对于石油天然气行业泡沫破灭后的捡漏,无人能出其右。

特雷弗-琼斯(Trevor Rees-Jones)下了飞机,身后跟着妻子简和她的小狗。这是一趟从达拉斯到“库克峡谷农场”(Cook Canyon Ranch)的短途飞行。这处位于沃斯堡和阿比琳之间的农场面积2.6万英亩(约合16万市亩),稍往北他们还有一处5.8万英亩的农场,但不如库克峡谷农场舒服。

“你好!”64岁的琼斯热情地打着招呼,“你喜欢我的飞机吗?要是我早知道你在这儿,我就带我那架“湾流550”来。”从说话语气和方式来看,琼斯就像前总统乔治- W-布什,只是话更多。琼斯和小布什在达拉斯是好友。

我们坐上他的福特F-150参观农场:有长角牛、高大的橡树、美丽的峡谷和从未关过马的漂亮马厩。在一处小山顶上,琼斯正在修建一个城堡大小的“猎人小屋”。 他在农场劈出一块5200英亩的地方,养上曲角羚羊、鬣羊、斑马之类的非洲动物,用三米多高的栅栏把它们围起来。我们在他那具有传奇色彩的“派对谷仓”(Party Barn)前停下。谷仓用再生木材建成,有一个大舞台和出自《寂寞之鸽》剧中的长吧台。琼斯曾包车把几百名达拉斯朋友拉到这儿参加菲丝-希尔、摇滚乐队邦乔维(Bon Jovi)等人献唱的音乐会,妻子简拉来女明星洛克莱尔(Heather Locklear)助阵让大家喜出望外。

谷仓建于2008年,这只不过是第一步。“我建了这个谷仓,然后意识到需要一个派对庭院,于是我想得再干大点,所以我就在那边建了个派对草坪,”琼斯说。有时候形势失控,比如《福禄双霸天》(Blues Brothers)中的主演贝鲁斯(Jim Belushi)和艾克罗伊德(Dan Aykroyd)。“他们很喜欢我的农场,我只得第二天把他们送走。”

琼斯夜夜欢歌令人羡慕,因为能源领域大多数人都笑不起来。从2009年到2014年,美国用水力压裂法开采了上百亿桶石油,在油价经常破百的时期国内石油产量从550万桶/日增至960万桶/日。然而,如今油价跌至30美元/桶,石油业全面崩溃:25万人下岗、二三十家大公司破产,还有几十家被沉重的债务压得喘不过气来的僵尸公司,他们在繁荣时期大肆举债开采成千上万个油井。按照目前的油价水平,美国油田开采新油井经济上划算的没几家。“各家公司一直在削减装备以保住人头,但那只不过是推迟了清算日,”摩根大通(58.04, 0.96, 1.68%)专做能源业大型交易的投资银行家德沃卡(Mark Deverka)说,“最坏的形势还没到来。”

那么为什么直接依赖油气行业、身价53亿美元的琼斯能弹冠相庆甚至滔滔不绝?(自从2006年首次登上“福布斯美国400富豪榜”, 他就从未接受过本刊采访)这是因为,虽然他私人所有的Chief Oil & Gas公司继续在宾州开采20万英亩的油气田——日产量8.3亿立方英尺(约合2350万立方米),但油气业繁荣时代他多数时间都是在卖出。他在包括油气井、管道和数十万英亩油气田的几笔交易中到手70亿美元,从而成为利用页岩油繁荣形势的最大赢家。这个昔日的破产律师如今成了美国最强大、最危险的能源企业家,他的故事值得大书特书。“他就像巴顿将军,傲慢、固执;他身体力行,雄心万丈,”德沃卡如是评价琼斯。

琼斯在达拉斯传统富人区University Park长大,小时候常常抓蝌蚪、小鸟卖给附近的小孩。“一条尾巴的蝌蚪卖一美分,长出后腿的卖3美分,如果四条腿都长全了就卖5美分,”琼斯说。有一次他25美分卖给一个小孩一只红雀,那只红雀不幸飞走,小孩来找琼斯退钱。琼斯的母亲借机让他再别干这事。1973年琼斯从达特茅斯学院毕业,然后进入南方卫理公会大学法学院学习,后来成为一名破产律师。“我觉得自己对法律问题很不感冒,但对油气行业却十分感兴趣,”琼斯说。

1984年,他在利宝银行(Republic National Bank)的7.8万美元信用额度中投入4000美元。此后他经历了长达十年的过山车般行情,通过一笔笔交易勉强维持,在德克萨斯钻了几百口井。低谷时他一连钻了17口井都一无所获。“有一次我们钻了一口干井,我在办公室接到电话。通常我会打电话给我的投资者投资者了解坏消息,但我实在不能忍受。我当时太绝望,走到街上看了一场电影,然后第二天再给他们打电话,”琼斯说。他现在可以轻松的笑谈这件事,但当时一点不好笑。“简拿出铅笔标记我带给投资者的地图,石油用绿色、天然气用红色标记。”简记的生意很差时他们停了家里的有线电视和电话呼叫等待服务:“琼斯看着那些农场出售广告出神,浮想联翩。”

随着两个孩子出世,琼斯竭力控制风险。1994年,他和四位合伙人开办Chief Oil & Gas,希望从沃斯堡北部的常规天然气田“骨头中捡点肉吃”。这些天然气田已经被投机分子和亿万富翁乔治-米切尔(George Mitchell)开发。琼斯一直在观察米切尔。能源部给米切尔提供了部分资金支持,他的米切尔能源开发公司正在试验开采技术,取得的技术突破结合了全新的水平钻孔法和较老的水力压裂法。水力压裂法的历史可追溯到20世纪50年代,比大多数人所认为的要老得多。这种新老结合技术在米切尔之前从未有人尝试过。米切尔把它用于巴奈特页岩将近3千米深的“源岩”。 在数百万年的地质年代中,丰富的石油天然气填满了沃斯堡周围的低洼地区。

琼斯很快借用米切尔的技术,于2000年在巴奈特开始认真地以压裂开采石油天然气。忽然间他钻的每一口井都成功了。当时琼斯认为那也许是侥幸。“我希望我能告诉你我有预知未来的水晶球,但我没有,”他说。琼斯的地质学家卡尔瓦略(Tony Carvalho)说:“我们总是认为这片气田一段时间后就会枯竭,但它不断产出。我们对它的蕴藏量始终估计不足。”如今意义已经十分明显:美国石油天然气探明储量增加了一倍,油价大大降低,每年为美国人节省了1500亿美元。

2002年,戴文能源公司35亿美元收购米切尔的公司。到2004年,琼斯的公司成为巴奈特第二大石油天然气公司。琼斯大获成功,用大约2000万美元买下四位合伙人中三位合伙人的股份。1994年,这群合伙人拿出17万美元,约占公司权益的1/3。很快琼斯又与小罗斯-佩罗(Ross Perot Jr.)达成协议开采后者的油气田。到2006年,从估值看泡沫已经很明显,琼斯于是决定把Chief最初租赁的巴奈特油气田以22亿美元卖给戴文能源,管道资产10.8亿美元卖给Crosstex能源公司。他并不介意在2006年卖光在巴奈特的全部资产,但小佩罗首先希望它们能够增加开采量。这主意不错。

真正引爆美国石油天然气大繁荣的是2008年创记录的油气价格:油价140美元/桶,天然气14美元/百万立方英尺。杞人忧天者惊呼全世界触及“石油顶峰”,汽油价格很快将升至20美元/加仑,我们将从卡塔尔之类的国家进口液化天然气。高高在上的石油天然气价格刺激了大量冒险活动。琼斯以前租赁的油气田价格为每英亩50美元,现在剑指1万美元。“就像一列失控的火车,”琼斯说,“市场太疯狂。”2008年,他和佩罗把剩下的业务13亿美元卖给Quicksilver Resources,Chief净得3.3亿美元。

琼斯毫不吝啬地犒劳员工,有时多达数百万美元。他还给里斯-琼斯基金会捐赠4亿美元,但给以前的合伙人签发支票就没那么积极了。合伙人之一诺埃尔(D. Bobbitt Noel)向德克萨斯地区法庭起诉琼斯。陪审团认定琼斯违反诚信义务、骗购了诺埃尔(琼斯从高中时代起就结识的一位好友)在Chief的全部股份,向他隐瞒了钻探和水力压裂法技术的进步使得公司租赁油气田价值大增的事实。法官判决诺埃尔可获得1.96亿美元。后来琼斯与诺埃尔庭外和解,数目不详。

不过琼斯的钱还远远没有挣完,他迅速复制在巴奈特的成功奇迹。2007年,Chief与合作伙伴Tug Hill公司开始在宾州租赁钻探玛西拉岩层(Marcellus)。琼斯明白,只有钻探几百口井才能确定最佳位置。于是他与切萨皮克能源(3.49, 0.30, 9.40%)、Range Resources、Cabot Oil & Gas等大型上市公司争夺,租下了全部土地,在整个宾州多达60万英亩。

事实很快证明,玛西拉岩层是美国最大的天然气田。琼斯再一次希望“落袋为安”。2009年,Chief、Tug Hill公司与新合作伙伴Enerplus Resources达成交易,后者以4亿美元买下了他们大约30%的租赁土地。2010年,他们又以4.6亿美元的价格向Exco Resources卖了10万英亩,占东北片区的一半。然后在2011年5月,雪佛龙(85.7, 1.58, 1.88%)18亿美元买下了Chief在宾州西南部的土地。2012年4月,琼斯又把玛西拉的管道网络10亿美元卖给Penn Virginia Resource Partners。

和出售巴奈特资产一样,玛西拉资产出手时机再好不过了。在2011年和雪佛龙做那笔交易时天然气价格为4.3美元/千立方英尺,一年后跌破2美元。天然气价格暴跌并不出乎琼斯的意料:他亲眼目睹玛西拉岩层可压裂开采大量天然气。对天然气生产商来说,2012年气价暴跌是石油钻探商现状的前奏。“对我来说这并不新鲜,”琼斯说,“自2012年以来我就在学习如何应对低价格。”

Chief保留了最有价值的土地:玛西拉东北部产量最高的20万英亩。随着债台高筑的生产商因为价格大跌不堪重负,琼斯抓住机会从卖家摇身一变成为买家。2013年,Chief出资5亿美元购买切萨皮克能源公司玛西拉土地。琼斯表示,这里天然气的生产运输成本为1.5美元/千立方英尺,在全美国最低。长期合同保证了他通往纽约、波士顿的管道输送能力,所以即使当今天然气价格不到2美元,琼斯也能赚不少。如果没有签订这些管道合同,他甚至都不能做到收支相抵。

琼斯认为,随着新建管道竣工,这种情况几年内将会发生改变。最近几个月,他以3000万美元从阿纳达科(36.13, 1.54, 4.46%)石油公司购买了更多土地。“如果我现在就能获取良好回报,几年后会挣得更多,”他说。目前Chief只会在这些地块竖起一两个井架。

接下来琼斯会怎么做?由于天然气资产已经不少,琼斯正在寻求成本优势和玛西拉天然气业务一样低的油田。去哪里找这些油田?“我不知道,但我觉得我们会找到的,”琼斯说。他的意思是,随着石油业泡沫破裂,我们将会发现哪些油田是最好的油田,因为它们是钻探设备一直运转到最后的油田。琼斯希望在这些油田附近发现可以入手的资产。

土地便宜并不必然意味着高价值。很多公司在这方面教训深刻。“有些土地即使白送,在上面钻探也没有任何意义,”休斯敦大学能源经济学家希尔什(Ed Hirs)表示,“首先你得有低成本的岩层。”比如,琼斯没有兴趣再把巴奈特页岩层买回来。那里还有很多天然气,但成本高不值得开采。在那里买下Chief大片土地的Quicksilver Resources去年破产。其他石油公司去年干脆放弃巴奈特。

北达科他、科罗拉多、德克萨斯鹰福特有的是好地方。琼斯的团队一直关注俄克拉荷马的一些多层页岩构造,目前正在开发部分近年来被忽视的常规油田。不过最终“帕米亚盆地才是我的最爱,那里的石油汩汩滔滔不绝,”琼斯说。

不要指望油价很快回到75美元/桶,更别说100美元/桶。“考虑到迄今为止忍受的阵痛,沙特不想让油价回到该区间,”琼斯说,“它会刺激太多活动。”沙特坐拥6000亿美元外汇储备,还撑得住。沙特阿美现在生产一桶石油的边际成本约为20美元,而平均成本不到6美元。当然他们希望卖100美元一桶,但在加拿大含油砂、美国页岩油开采可行的情况下是不可能的。

琼斯没必要再做生意了。他可以天天骑着那辆山地车检查检查“猎人小屋”建得如何,增加自己的西方艺术品收藏,安排安排下一次谷仓派对。但夜夜笙歌对这位压裂法油气开采大王来说是不够的。“过去我很喜欢打扑克,”琼斯说,“但自从我从事油气钻探后,我对打扑克就没兴趣了。我爱冒险的天性通过开采油气井得到了满足。”

 

HO BEE LAND LTD

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27 January 2016

 

GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROPERTIES LTD

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SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS

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22 January 2016

 

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MAPLETREE GREATER CHINA COMM TRUST

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21 January 2016

 

QQQ

bought 99.47

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FXI

bought 29.30

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EWQ

bought 21.93

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EWG

bought 23.51

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DIA

bought 157.25

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SPY

bought 185

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PSQ

sold at 58.44, well done!

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NAM CHEONG LIMITED

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UOL GROUP LIMITED

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20 January 2016

 

Long-term Thinking and Back to Basics

When markets are tumbling, it’s time to get excited about stocks. This is often talked about, but rarely practiced. J. Paul Getty once said the key to getting rich is simple: “Buy when everyone else is selling and hold when everyone else is buying”.

For the value investing community, Buffett’s famous “Be greedy when others are fearful” basically is the same gist. Commonly referenced and preached, but far less often practiced.

I am lucky to have a great client base at Saber Capital. It is very important to have an investor base who understands how you are trying to create long term results. For individual investors, or small fund managers like myself, it’s important to capitalize on what is in my opinion the best advantage we have—the ability to look out long term. The more sophisticated people call this long-term idea “time arbitrage”. The ability to have a longer term time horizon than the vast majority of market participants is a widely talked about attribute by most fund managers, but I think it is still underrated.

Many market participants willingly admit that over time, the business in question will be making more money and the stock price will likely be much higher years down the road, but yet they are selling or avoiding the stock now because of an expected poor quarter or some other short term problem, or worse yet—for reasons that have nothing to do with the company at all but for general market or macroeconomic worries.

Regarding one well-followed company I am currently looking at, I heard one analyst downgrade the company for fears about the current quarter while admitting that the company has an extremely bright long-term future—his recommendation is to sell now as near term “pressure” will likely create a “better entry point”. Possibly, but not sure I have any edge in picking “entry points” or being able to tell when “pressure” has alleviated (other than after it’s already too late and reflected in the stock price).

As Mohnish Pabrai said in his book:

The typical hammer-wielding Wall Street analyst is fixated on the next few quarters, not the next half century when trying to figure out any given company. No Wall Street analyst’s mental model of Coke in 1988 was comprised of the latticework that Munger and Buffett fixated upon.

I’ve always felt that this is one of the reasons why large cap stocks often get significantly mispriced. The average large cap stock’s 52 week high is around 50% higher than its 52 week low. The reason for these large fluctuations in huge well-followed companies is partly due to the changing moods of the market, but also partly due to the very short-term focused views that the majority of market participants have. Every analyst talks about Google’s next quarter and has a model for earnings and other quarterly metrics. Very few analysts consider that no 22-year old engineer would rather work at Yahoo or Microsoft over Google. These intangible things matter, but they don’t show up in quarterly results. It’s why a stock like Google can trade at $500 one year and nearly $800 the next, a difference of around $200 billion of market value.

This is the time to be getting more excited, and this is the time to be taking advantage of marked down prices. Good companies are much cheaper than they were just two weeks ago. It’s like a post-Christmas sale.

The key, as Rudyard Kipling said, is keeping your head when all about you are losing theirs.

So in response to a number of readers who asked me my opinion on the market (I have no opinion by the way), I’ll list some “back to basics” things that might be helpful to review. Think of it as weekend reading list to get your frame of mind focused on thinking about businesses and valuations next week, and not economic indicators or where the S&P will find “support”.

Long-Term Thinking

Great investors talk a lot about long-term thinking. So do some of the most successful businesses of all time. Jeff Bezos doesn’t care about quarterly results now, nor did he in 1997 when he wrote the first Amazon shareholder letter:

“We will continue to make investment decisions in light of long-term market leadership considerations rather than short-term profitability considerations or short-term Wall Street reactions.”

And my favorite bullet point from this letter:

“When forced to choose between optimizing the appearance of our GAAP accounting and maximizing the present value of future cash flows, we’ll take the cash flows.”

By the way, Amazon did $148 million in sales in 1997. This year they’ll do $100 billion.

Google

Take a look at the Google IPO Prospectus from 2004. The original shareholder letter that Page and Brin wrote contain a few great concepts:

Google Long Term View

Many people will attribute things other than “long-term view” to Google’s and Amazon’s successes. Certainly a long-term mindset wasn’t a sufficient condition for their success, but I do think it was necessary. And I think it’s interesting that these two firms were the ones who—well before they were entrenched companies with huge moats that we now know from hindsight—actually talked about this from the very beginning, before they achieved the dominance that they did. There were other search engines and other ecommerce retailers, and certainly there were many reasons why these two firms squashed the competition, but focusing on long-term results certainly helped them get there.

It behooves investors—just like it behooves corporate managers—to think past the next few quarters.

Steve Jobs—Go For a Walk

Walking helps clarify thinking. It can produce good ideas. If you don’t like to walk, sit in a room and think for a while. It worked for Buffett. It worked for Archimedes. Great ideas don’t usually come from a schedule like this one.

Steve Jobs talked a lot about “zooming out”. He would go for walks around Apple’s campus and get deep into thought about an idea.

Buffett’s 2008 NY Times Op-Ed Piece

I remember when Buffett wrote this piece, and I remember how many people laughed at him then. I also remember all the ridicule he received as the market continued lower for the next few months. A year later it was 30% higher, and five years later (the time frame he mentioned in the article) the market had tripled. I no longer hear anyone laughing at him.

“A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

“Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”

“Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

It’s such a simple concept, and the article was written for everyday Americans, yet the advice is really practical for all investors.

Buffett’s You Pay a Very High Price in the Stock Market for a Cheery Consensus

This piece was originally written by Buffett in Forbes in 1978.

“A second argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn’t it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: “Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear; you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.”

Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville

This is always an interesting piece to review once in a while. Check out the track records of some of Buffett’s friends. These guys primarily operating under the same philosophy of buying assets for less than their true value, but they used different tactics to implement their approaches (Schloss bought bargains and was diversified, Lou Simpson bought businesses that could compound over time, Munger did some of both, so did Buffett, etc…).

Here is a link to the piece.

I don’t think any of these guys paid much attention to the S&P. They didn’t beat the market every year, and they all had some bad years, but over time their focus on value and not markets paid off.

Zoom Out

Go for a walk. Turn off CNBC, stop watching “Markets in Turmoil” specials, stop reading twitter, and pick up a book or go for a walk. “Zoom out” as Jobs said. And remember that most of the great wealth was made not by using stop losses or trading in and out (granted-there are some great traders). But most of the real wealth was built by buying good assets, particularly when they are on sale.

Also, by “zooming out”, you’ll notice the market hasn’t fallen that much. 10% corrections throughout history have occurred every 18 months or so. This isn’t abnormal. 20% corrections occur about once every 4 or 5 years. Another 10% decline from here would also not be abnormal.

Regardless of what happens, low stock prices lead to opportunities, and opportunities are becoming more prevalent, which is a very exciting development.

John

6 Response
Ben says:
January 16, 2016 at 8:05 pm
The rules Buffet plays by are not the same rules you or I play by, and I would also suggest that Buffett’s definition of being ‘greedy when others are fearful’ is vastly different from how the majority of other investors think of fear in the market. A 10-20% correction is not fear, at least not to me. The mere fact that two people can disagree on what ‘fear’ is goes some way to prove how hard it is to quantify such a thing and it therefore follows that if definitions vary so widely it shouldn’t really be used as an excuse to start buying.

When Buffet was buying in 08/09, he entered into sectors that were very distressed and picked up companies that nobody wanted to be around. Some of those companies were down by up to 50%-70% and more, not a paltry 10-20% as I seem to see many talking about. Part of the reason why he was so successful was because he had a significant information advantage. Had you taken his advice and acted immediately on it in October 08 you could have bought BAC, or Citigroup, or several others, and still been sitting on a significant unrealised loss today. How many value investors do you know of that has a direct line to people sitting in the White House? Buffet would have known what was going on behind the scenes from all the TARP bailouts and the structure of those before the bill had been signed into law. Perhaps he may have even be called to consult on such a draft such is the esteem with which he is held – certainly it is well known that he has a cosy with the then treasury secretary Hank Paulson and is also known for communicating with Paulson at that time.

One other thing I really don’t understand is the idea that value investors feel the need to shun any kind of timing approach. When you buy has a material impact on what price you pay. If a value investor truly believes that timing is irrelevant, then why bother sitting on any cash at all? This is an idea put forward by the value community which doesn’t stack up to how the value investing community actually behaves. Instead they will phrase holding spare cash as a ‘source for opportunity’, and yet by holding cash you are expressly looking to time better entries. For the record I am not for one moment agreeing with your pundit on selling because the next quarter looks tough.

I think people generally are quick to use Buffett’s wisdom to justify folly. I’m not suggesting you are doing this btw.

I agree with you completely about having longer term perspective btw.



John Huber says:
January 16, 2016 at 9:11 pm
Hi Ben, Thanks for the comment. Some interesting points there. I would say a couple things though… first, I don’t think Buffett ever made a stock pick recommendation. He was simply saying that now (late 2008) was a great time to be buying American stocks. And he was certainly right about that. The only company I ever remember him making any sort of public statement on is Wells Fargo. He said he would put his entire net worth into WFC when it was trading at 7. And he was certainly right there too. He never said anything about C or BAC in 2009. He did buy BAC in 2011 and investors would have done pretty well following him into that one, although not as well as if they followed him into WFC in 2009.

Anyhow, just some points there on stock picks. I actually think you could have done very well just cloning Buffett, although it was certainly possible to do better given most of us are much smaller.

As for the White House direct line, I don’t know that that is actually true, but let’s assume he could call Bush or Obama. I’m not sure those guys are great stock pickers, and I’m not sure Buffett needed their help. He wrote a letter to Paulson (Treasury Secretary), and I know what you’re trying to say… certainly Buffett’s name provides him with a competitive advantage.

That said, I often hear people dismiss Buffett’s success due to his connections. There are a couple problems with this line of thought: first off, Buffett got his connections because of his incredible success as an investor. His investment success didn’t come from his connections. Without the investment record, there would be no “direct line” to anyone of importance. Secondly, his numbers now–even with those connections–are nowhere near the numbers that he produced when he was sitting in his pajamas flipping through Moody’s manuals. He did 30% a year in his partnership, and 50% per year in the early 1950’s with his own money buying and selling cheap stocks. The record he achieved in the early decades earned him the reputation that he can now use to Berkshire’s advantage.

And lastly, I understand that many people find Buffett disingenuous sometimes when he gives advice. But I believe his advice is sound. In fact, almost every time he’s publicly issued advice on either stock market valuations or general recommendations, it would have paid to heed it.

As for cash/timing… that’s an interesting point. I do think cash can be held from time to time though, and I actually still have a fair amount of cash. I know a lot of value investors who hold cash at times. I’m not sure about timing though. In a way, cash tends to build when bargains are scarce, which might often coincide with high stock prices, but cash levels usually are based on opportunities for me, not necessarily where the S&P is or where I think it might be going. Not sure how other investors view this. I know there are some great timers out there (Druckenmiller, Tudor Jones, Soros, etc…), but I think those guys are a very rare breed. I personally don’t think I have any skillset to attempt trying to time markets (nor do I have a desire to operate that way. Investing in such a way would be stressful to me, but I suppose others might be able to succeed at it. To each their own…)

Anyhow, good comment, and thanks for reading Ben.

Reply
Ben says:
January 17, 2016 at 8:49 am
Hi John,

Thanks for the reply. I agree Buffett’s investing advice by and large is well intended. I think people have a problem with his advice on taxes, where he has been able to defer (and other things besides) which have worked to his long term performance advantage – not for this blog however. Buffett in my view is still the best ever investor irrespective of his tricks, and he is very savy in terms of the marco side of things to.

There is no doubt an experience stock picker will steer clear of the mistakes above – like yourself. Buffett didn’t make recommendations in October of course, yet he did buy BAC in 2011 (warrants) so he obviously felt that BAC was a place where he could put his money and the timing of that purchase was crucial.

His article in 2008 is now famous, for all the right reasons, but as you mentioned in your previous article about Peter Lynch, too often it is used incorrectly and as an excuse for folly.

Cheers
B

Reply
January 16, 2016 at 8:05 pm
The rules Buffet plays by are not the same rules you or I play by, and I would also suggest that Buffett’s definition of being ‘greedy when others are fearful’ is vastly different from how the majority of other investors think of fear in the market. A 10-20% correction is not fear, at least not to me. The mere fact that two people can disagree on what ‘fear’ is goes some way to prove how hard it is to quantify such a thing and it therefore follows that if definitions vary so widely it shouldn’t really be used as an excuse to start buying.

When Buffet was buying in 08/09, he entered into sectors that were very distressed and picked up companies that nobody wanted to be around. Some of those companies were down by up to 50%-70% and more, not a paltry 10-20% as I seem to see many talking about. Part of the reason why he was so successful was because he had a significant information advantage. Had you taken his advice and acted immediately on it in October 08 you could have bought BAC, or Citigroup, or several others, and still been sitting on a significant unrealised loss today. How many value investors do you know of that has a direct line to people sitting in the White House? Buffet would have known what was going on behind the scenes from all the TARP bailouts and the structure of those before the bill had been signed into law. Perhaps he may have even be called to consult on such a draft such is the esteem with which he is held – certainly it is well known that he has a cosy with the then treasury secretary Hank Paulson and is also known for communicating with Paulson at that time.

One other thing I really don’t understand is the idea that value investors feel the need to shun any kind of timing approach. When you buy has a material impact on what price you pay. If a value investor truly believes that timing is irrelevant, then why bother sitting on any cash at all? This is an idea put forward by the value community which doesn’t stack up to how the value investing community actually behaves. Instead they will phrase holding spare cash as a ‘source for opportunity’, and yet by holding cash you are expressly looking to time better entries. For the record I am not for one moment agreeing with your pundit on selling because the next quarter looks tough.

I think people generally are quick to use Buffett’s wisdom to justify folly. I’m not suggesting you are doing this btw.

I agree with you completely about having longer term perspective btw.

 

Are You Ready For The Chinese Snowball?


By David Kuo, Director, Motley Fool Singapore| 20 January 2016


The warnings are coming in thick and fast, as the stock market tumble continues apace around the globe.

George Soros has compared the current climate to the global financial crisis that battered markets in 2008.

Soros highlighted China’s economic woes. He said “China has a major adjustment problem. He also warned that China is transferring its problems to the rest of world by devaluing its currency.

Cataclysmic

Royal Bank of Scotland has joined the fray by pointing out that China has set off a major correction and warned that it is going to snowball.

It warned investors to prepare for a “cataclysmic” year, as the giant Chinese snowball takes us into unchartered waters.

And what is the banks advice?

It is to sell everything except high-quality bonds. Their justification for the drastic call is that now is a time to consider the return of capital rather than the return on capital.

The UK bank and Soros are not alone in their pessimism. UBS has cut its exposure to the stock market on a “six-month tactical horizon”.

Naysayers

I am sure there are lots more naysayers out there who will try their best to out-bear each other and out-scare many investors, in the process.

But are conditions in the global economy really that catastrophic?

From where I am sitting, there are no signs that the world is falling apart. The US economy is growing; Europe and Japan are recovering, and China is still expanding, albeit at a slower pace.

Sure the stock market has dropped. But market falls are not uncommon.

Major corrections happen from time to time. Peter Lynch, who is one of the greatest investors of our time, once said: “A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.”

Sad indictment

But it is, nevertheless, a sad indictment of those in the financial industry who invariably try to overegg the pudding.

It likes to overplay when markets are rising and overdramatise when markets are falling. That is how it makes waves, makes headlines and makes money out of unsuspecting investors.

But investors need to look past the hyperboles and focus on the things that matter.

Of course markets have fallen. That is part and parcel of investing. It would more of a surprise if it continually rose and never corrected.

A market fall is also one of the reasons why investors, such as you and I, are paid more for taking on the risk of investing in shares.

If we are unable to tolerate risk, then we should leave our money in the safety of a bank account instead.

Rollercoaster

However, the price we pay for sheltering in the safety of a bank account is a paltry return on our money, rather than a long-term return of around 7% a year. That is how much the Singapore market has returned on average for patient investors.

It is quite possible that global markets could fall further. But that simply gives all of us an opportunity to buy more of the stocks that we like at better prices.

It is very easy to get caught up emotionally in the stock-market rollercoaster. But investing is never about blind optimism or abject pessimism.

Investing, as Warren Buffett pointed out, is about forecasting the yield on an asset over the lifetime of the asset. Speculation is forecasting the psychology of the market.

As investors, we will enjoy good times and we will also endure difficult times. In tough times the market’s first instinct is to assume the worst.

But the smart investor will always ask whether a company will be bigger, stronger and more profitable in five or ten years’ time. It can take time for the growth to be reflected in the share price. But we are rewarded for our patience.
Be sure to follow us on Facebook for the latest in Foolish investing.

 

MAPLETREE GREATER CHINA COMM TRUST

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added 1.30

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MAPLETREE GREATER CHINA COMM TRUST

added 0.85

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NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF

added 2.65

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UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD

added 17.11

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VIVA INDUSTRIAL TRUST

added 0.67

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18 January 2016

 

KEPPEL CORP

added 4.71

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DBS GROUP HLDGS LTD

added 14.32

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NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF

added 2.69

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SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES

added 2.37

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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC)

added 7.81

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UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD

added 17.35

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NAM CHEONG LIMITED

added 0.109

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STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES IDX FUND

added 2.67

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VIVA INDUSTRIAL TRUST

added 0.68

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17 January 2016

 

秦怡的养生之道

秦怡不老的秘密


历经人生的坎坷与痛楚,93岁高龄的秦怡依然优雅从容。她身姿灵活、端庄美丽,风采不减当年。

在光影交错的时光中,她永恒四季、美丽一生的秘密同样是关注的焦点。让我们都来看看秦怡的养生之道吧:


1 精神上永远乐观;善于自己解心结。



秦怡说:“无论什么情况下,我都尽量保持开朗、乐观。50岁时,我就设法保持三四十岁时的精神状态;60岁时,又要努力体现四五十岁的精神状态。一个人只要精神上乐观就会始终充满青春的活力。”

儿子去世后的那段时间是秦怡最难过的时候。秦怡说:“1983年金焰走了,2007年儿子走了,2008年妹妹秦文也走了,慢慢地,一个个都走了。我幸福过、快乐过,也怨恨过。我这辈子在工作和家庭上吃苦、受难很多,人家都说我心态好,人终究都有过美好生活的愿望。但我从不认命,我会分析,就像剥桔子,把这些心结一个一个、一层一层地剥开。”

2 心态平衡是健康的基础;要坚强。



秦怡身体并非一直很好。1966年的春节,她被查出患上了肠癌,很快就接受了手术治疗。术后,一位医生断言,秦怡活不长了。但手术后没多久,她就动身赴干校参加劳动,一去就是两年。两年时间里,病情不仅没复发,而且奇迹般地痊愈了。

“主要是心态比较好,增强了抵抗力,病魔就被压下去。”回忆起这段经历,秦怡颇为感慨:“要坚强起来,与疾病抗争。乌云过去就是黎明,灿烂的明天就在前头!” 秦怡还表示,“不要老觉得自己老了,不行了,不然就真的什么事都做不了。”


3 养颜护肤有诀窍;坚持用冷水洗浴。



秦怡有不少养颜护肤小秘诀,如用吃剩的酸奶擦脸,“洗掉以后感觉蛮好的,皮肤很光滑。不过晚上要洗得非常干净。”

从春天到深秋,秦怡每天都用冷水洗脸、洗澡,已经坚持了几十年。秦怡表示,洗完以后要稍微用力的搓搓,脸上的血液流通了,皮肤就看起来很滋润。

4 要学会动中取静;常练“放松功”。

由于经常参加各类社会活动、艺术活动,还有家务的拖累,秦怡常年处于忙碌之中,她就动中取静,调剂自己的神经。比如,静坐下来画一朵花,添几片绿叶;或是找来一本中外名著,读一段精彩章节。

秦怡还常练一种放松功:“就是手随便搁在腿上或者其他地方也好,全部松下来,一点劲都不要用,思想里也是放松,一点一点全身放松……”青岛市第五人民医院中医神经内科王彩丽主任对此表示赞同:“放松功”是一种非常好的健康运动。

5 坚持锻炼;学习健身体操。
秦怡说:“我平时靠散步与快走来锻炼身体,每天平均走上五千到一万步。外出办事时,只要距离不是很远,我一定步行前往。西方医学之父希波克拉底说过,步行是人类最好的补药。”

在进入中老年之后,秦怡不仅学习了“八段锦”,还通过电视等途径学习各种健身体操。每天清晨坚持锻炼半小时,并已形成了规律。

这些年,各种保健观念层出不穷,搅得人茫然不知所措。但在健身方面,各人都可以在实践中摸索,总结最适合自己的锻炼方法,千万不能随大流。锻炼也不能三天打鱼、两天晒网,否则终将一事无成。

6 饮食“三控制”;一日三餐吃好。

60岁以后,“三控制”是秦怡重要的一条养生之道。即控制摄入的油量、盐量与食量。秦怡表示,自己从来不吃任何保健品,一日三餐吃好就行了。什么菜上市就吃什么,不挑食、不偏食。


秦怡美的启示


秦怡的美,来自她的外表。秦怡是真的美,微微卷曲的银发,高雅但简单的装束,一派优雅、淡定、从容的气质,不用言语便传出一种娴静之意。

秦怡的美,来自她的坚韧。“秦娘”是秦怡的一个雅号。吴祖光在随笔《秦娘美》里曾形容,“秦怡具有中国妇女的传统美德,身处逆境而从不灰心丧志。能够以极大的韧性迎接苦难克服苦难。永远表现为从容不迫。”

秦怡的美,来自她的善良。秦怡是个心宽的人,做人真实、自然。四川汶川地震后,她先后捐款20余万元,青海玉树地震后,又捐款3万元,几乎是倾囊而出。要知道,秦怡那时候是没有片酬的,她捐出的,都是在上海电影制片厂积攒的工资。

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投资房地产,耐心是关键

来源: va_landlord

和几个投资房地产的朋友们聊天,发现我们一个共同的毛病,就是没有耐心。



首先,是买的时候要有耐心。不见兔子不撒鹰。

看到一个可以赚点钱的机会,就迫不及待地把钱投了进去,等真正好的机会来临, 手头没有钱。

所以,要有定力,有耐心,要等到那些不买就后悔十年的机会出现的时候,再下手不迟。

我搞了这么多年,真正好的,一是2014年底买的旅馆。 $220万买进。 它真正的市场价值在$700万左右。

第二个,就是刚刚买的这块地。它的主人继承来的遗产,是当成房子来卖的。 我买地的成本,相当于每块地十万不到。开发完成后,地价也才不到13万。这是其他开发商拿到地价的一半。



其次,是卖的时候。不能见到小利就三个核桃两个枣就出手了。你要知道它的市场价值,要卖到至少是接近市场价。 还是俺那个旅馆,刚买下来就有人出四百万。一转手就赚180万,是挺有诱惑力的。但是我知道它的价值。卖不到700万我是不卖的。这条街上,过几年就是另外一个价格了。



说到底,我们小业主,想要快速发展,就要学会拣漏。要想拣到漏,就得勤奋。天天的找漏。 我每天花两到三个小时,把所有相关网站看一遍。有好东西,绝对逃不过我的眼。天天坐在这里,也是要有耐心。

有道是,只有一心想要赚钱的人,才能赚到钱。 光想还没用,要干。

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SH - PROSHARES SHORT S&P500

sold at 22.81 at profit, well done! (20160115)

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15 January 2016

 

NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF

added 2.71

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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC)

added 8.02

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DBS GROUP HLDGS LTD

added 14.82

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UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD

added 17.76

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STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES IDX FUND

added 2.70

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SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES

added 2.45

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KEPPEL CORP

added 4.87

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NAM CHEONG LIMITED

added 0.109

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14 January 2016

 

DBS GROUP HLDGS LTD

added 14.98

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NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF

added 2.72

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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC)

added 8.10

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KEPPEL CORP

added 4.97

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SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES

added 2.50

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STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES IDX FUND

added 2.72

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13 January 2016

 

KEPPEL CORP

added 5.16

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SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES

added 2.60

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STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES IDX FUND

added 2.75

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NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF

added 2.75

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NAM CHEONG LIMITED

added 0.11

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12 January 2016

 

KEPPEL CORP

added 5.50

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SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES

added 2.63

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STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES IDX FUND

added 2.75

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SEMBCORP MARINE

bought 1.51

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11 January 2016

 

NAM CHEONG LIMITED

added 0.116

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ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST (REIT)

added 2.21

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NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF

added 2.77

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STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES IDX FUND

added 2.77

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08 January 2016

 

RWM - PROSHARES SHORT RUSSELL2000

sold at 65.59, well done!

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MYY - PROSHARES SHORT MIDCAP 400

sold at 16.99, well done!

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07 January 2016

 

03 January 2016

 

绿茶-红茶有助于心血管健康

对成年人来说,有几个心血管参数是经常测量和监测的。一个心血管健康的人,他们应满足以下条件:

身体质量指数 BMI

< 25 公斤/米2

总胆固醇

< 200 毫克/分升

血压

< 120 / < 80 毫米汞柱

空腹血糖

< 100 毫克/分升



绿茶富含叫做茶多酚的抗氧化剂。茶叶中含有的多酚被列为儿茶素。绿茶含有六个主要的儿茶素化合物: catechins. Green tea contains six primary catechin compounds: catechin, gallaogatechin, epicatechin, epigallocatechin, epicatechin gallate, and apigallocatechin gallat (儿茶素、 gallaogatechin 表儿茶素、 表儿茶素、 表儿茶素没食子酸、 没食子酸 表没食子儿茶素,没食子儿茶素没食子酸酯 (也被称为 EGCG))。EGCG 是绿茶研究最多成分,因为它是最丰富和最有药理活性的。

这些多酚具有很强的抗自由基功能,能防止自由基对细胞膜、 DNA 和细胞的损伤。许多科学家认为,自由基是促进衰老,破坏细胞而导致大量的健康问题,包括癌症和心脏疾病。抗氧化剂,例如绿色茶叶中茶多酚能清除/删除自由基而对细胞的保护产生作用。

有几位科学家 (路易斯 · 哈特利纳丁 · 花、 詹妮弗 · 福尔摩斯、 爱玲克拉克、 维里奥陌生人、 李胡珀,、 凯伦里斯. (2012 年) 1st参考) 对绿茶和红茶的11 个随机临床试验 (RCT) 共821位 参与者通过系统性审查、 统计分析和评价的方法来评估"绿色和红茶对心血管疾病的预防"的数据,得出以下结论:

(1)试验发现红茶能降低低密度脂蛋白 (LDL) 胆固醇平均值 (MD) -0.43 mmol/L,介于95%可信区间 (CI) -0.56 到-0.31) 之间。降低血压 (收缩压 (SBP): MD-1.85 毫米汞柱,也是介于可信区的95 % CI-3.21 到-0.48。舒张压 (DBP): MD-1.27 毫米汞柱,在95 % CI-3.06-0.53之间)。作者同时提出,因为试验次数较少,这些结果可能还有偏见的危险。

(2)从对 绿茶的研究也得出和红茶的相似的结果:降低总胆固醇 MD -0.62 mmol/L,(介于95 % CI-0.77 到-0.46之间),低密度脂蛋白胆固醇 MD-0.64 mmol/L,(95 %CI为-0.52-0.77) 和血压收缩压SBP: MD -3.18 毫米汞柱,(95 %CI -5.25 到-1.11); DBP: MD-3.42,(95 %CI-4.54 到-2.30)。作者同样指出,因为试验次数较少,这些结果可能还有偏见的可能。

(3) 如果把这两种茶类型同时进行分析,得到的同样的结果。降低脂蛋白胆固醇MD-0.48 mmol/L,(95 %ci-0.35 到-0.61) 和血压收缩压: MD-2.25 毫米汞柱,(95 %CI-3.39 到-1.11);DBP: MD-2.81 毫米汞柱,(95 %CI-3.77 到有大约-1.86)。

(4) 对两类型红茶和绿茶的研究都是局限于较少范围和较短时间的研究,可能存在有偏见和不确定的因素。所以,对它们的心血管疾病的预防疗理作用还需要进一步的较长期的在大群体中的研究来证实。

也正是由于有限的试验,特别是那些人口众多的和可信度高的试验,于2006 年 5 月,美国食品和药物管理局 (FDA) 驳回了 “允许茶标签声称绿茶可以减少患心脏病的风险” 的。我们都知道,FDA的在审批任何与疾病有相关的声称,都是非常严格。因此, FDA 的拒绝并不奇怪。但我们有相当一部人的意见是,由于开发和生产保健品的公司的基金有限,加上保健品与药品不同,即使获得临床的很好结果,也很难获得专利权。所以没有多少人会投资到这方面的研究来。 这也许是还没有达到十分可信的程度。 但是,作为消费者,这并不意味着我们不能认为喝茶或服用茶的提取物对我们心血管的健康有利的看法。

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蜂蜜

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,你会发现你开始嫌弃其他饮料,它是唯一没有添加剂的饮料,健康。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,你会发现你以后怎么吃也不会胖,喝蜂蜜会去油解腻,燃烧脂肪。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,你会发现咽喉炎好了,即使熬夜火气也消除的很快,不用担心上火了。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,不再贫血了,经常食用蜂蜜,可以增加血液中血红蛋白的含量。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,不再担心心血管硬化了,蜂蜜可以预防和缓解血管硬化。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,你刮伤的伤口很快就愈合了,蜂蜜涂抹伤口,可以营养皮肤、快速愈合。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,你会发现不会喝酒的,现在居然能喝好几杯了,因为蜂蜜能加速酒精分解,消除酒后头疼,减少酒精对肝脏的损害。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,不再失眠了,蜂蜜是帮助睡眠的良药,因为它是一种作用于全身的镇静剂,每天睡前一杯蜂蜜水,用40°左右温水冲服,就成了一杯很好的安睡安神蜂蜜茶。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,你会发现雀斑没了,将两勺蜂蜜与20毫升的新鲜凤梨果汁混合,用毛刷涂抹在脸上,十分钟后用清水洗净,这样的蜂蜜面膜可以消除雀斑。

千万别喝蜂蜜: 因为喝了,你会发现皮肤越来越白嫩、细腻、富有弹性了,再也记不起任何化妆品品牌了,蜂蜜中含有葡萄糖、果糖多种维生素、氨基酸和多种抗氧化物质,养颜美容,根本不用买化妆品!



吃对了蜂蜜一年为您省去 $$$$$$ 医药费.

你知道蜂蜜都有什么功效吗? 你真的了解蜂蜜吗? 这里为您总结出蜂蜜日常应用11大功效:

在正式介绍蜂蜜的吃法前,先跟随我们了解一下蜂蜜背后的那些真相!

1.蜂蜜是一种非常稳定的物质,如果妥善保存,可以几百年不变质,营养也不会流失。

2.蜂蜜可以减少心血管系统的脂肪堆积。

3.蜂蜜是唯一一种非人工制造的甜味剂。

4.蜂蜜不会像经过提炼的糖和蔗糖那样在胃里发酵,因此不会有被细菌感染的风险。

5.蜂蜜可能是糖类中最简单的分子形式,因此无法继续分解。这使它可以直接通过小肠进入血液,不会像蔗糖那样引起消化系统问题。

6.蜂蜜是睡觉时燃烧体内脂肪的最佳燃料。睡前一杯蜂蜜水,能有效帮助减重。

7、蜂蜜是治疗烧伤的最好物质。蜂蜜可以有效缓解疼痛,使患处快速康复,而且不会留下疤痕。

8.科学家在蜂蜜里已经发现了多种抗氧化剂,其中一种抗氧化剂只存在于蜂蜜中,有很好的抗衰老作用。

9.蜂蜜是治疗小儿咳嗽的既安全又有效的方法。

10.锻炼前后吃点蜂蜜的人,比不吃蜂蜜的人体能恢复快3倍。

怎么样,是不是和我们一样震惊!小小的蜂蜜背后竟有如此多的秘密!其实蜂蜜在单独使用时便有很高的营养价值和保健效果,具有补中益气、安五脏、调和百药、清热解毒、润燥滋阴、安神养心之功效,若能与其他食物或中药搭配使用,则能发挥更多的食疗和药疗作用。

1 .干燥上火

用梨蒸水,然后加入2勺左右的蜂蜜,可达到润肺润燥的功效;或用银木耳炖汤,再加入适量蜂蜜也能润肺止咳。

2.便秘

用大米50—100克,香蕉200克,蜂蜜适量。将大米熬粥后,加入切成小段的香蕉,然后加入蜂蜜,待凉后食用,可润肠通便。

3.高血压

用鲜芹菜100—150克,蜂蜜适量。将芹菜洗净捣烂取汁,加蜂蜜炖服。每日服用一次可有效降血压。

4.冠心病

丹参10克、首乌10克,水煎取汁,冲蜂蜜1—2勺内服,对治疗冠心病有帮助。

5.抵抗力低下

早上起床后和晚上睡觉前,喝牛奶时加入一小勺蜂蜜,可起到抗疲劳、增强抵抗力的效果;或用灵芝10克煎水后,取汁加入蜂蜜也可起到增强抵抗力的效果,特别适合癌.症患者手术后食用;此外,用人参泡水,加入蜂蜜1勺,能益气补气。

6.眼睛干

用菊花3克和枸杞10克,将二者泡水后,加入2勺蜂蜜,可明目、养肝肾。

7.月经过多

用适量红枣加蜂蜜熬粥,能起到补血益气的功效。

8.慢性咽炎

用麦冬10克、桔梗10克、甘草3克泡水后,加入蜂蜜,对缓解慢性咽炎有帮助。

9.腰痛肾虚

用核桃5个、蜂蜜2勺,将核桃仁加水煮15分钟,加入蜂蜜可补肾健脑;或用油将核桃炒黄,然后加入鸡蛋,再加入蜂蜜,也能达到同样的效果。

10.美容养颜

用蜂蜜和燕窝一起煎水喝,可达到美容养颜的效果;此外,用蜂蜜和其他食品如葡萄汁等一起做面膜也能取得很好的美容效果。

11.心烦气躁

用百合100克、粳米100克熬粥后,加入蜂蜜,在晚上睡觉前喝,可养心安神;或用玫瑰花泡水后,加入蜂蜜,可舒肝益气,心情舒畅。

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02 January 2016

 

17年老股民一买就涨的秘密


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