22 June 2006
Market Rebounding As Expected, to Take a Breather for Now Especially for China Plays
Market has been rebounding for these few days as expected since last update. China plays are the clear leaders as expected based on pure technical analysis before market rebound, especially for those counters recommended for averaging down or for positioning for market rebound.
Note that in short term, many China plays have completed a 5 small up waves, which hints that internal maket strength is quite strong and further gains will be possible after a small technical correction based on Elliot Wave Theory. While I do not recommend to sell at this juncture just because of this expected small technical correction (a few days), I do not recommend to buy at this moment, either. Instead, wait for completion of this small correction before adding positions or buying some if you missed the first boat because of fear. Buy the strongest stocks in the first boat, the secret for profit is to look at volumes, buy those with volumes contracting quickly during correction, do not guess which one is the best or strongest, always look at volumes and how they match with price actions during correction.
So far I have recovered almost 50% of paper profits lost during panic selling, looking to have 80% recovery after completion of bear rally - Yes, the rebound is still a bear rally, or a sucker rally.
Stocks Update on 22 Jun 06
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
Market has been rebounding for these few days as expected since last update. China plays are the clear leaders as expected based on pure technical analysis before market rebound, especially for those counters recommended for averaging down or for positioning for market rebound.
Note that in short term, many China plays have completed a 5 small up waves, which hints that internal maket strength is quite strong and further gains will be possible after a small technical correction based on Elliot Wave Theory. While I do not recommend to sell at this juncture just because of this expected small technical correction (a few days), I do not recommend to buy at this moment, either. Instead, wait for completion of this small correction before adding positions or buying some if you missed the first boat because of fear. Buy the strongest stocks in the first boat, the secret for profit is to look at volumes, buy those with volumes contracting quickly during correction, do not guess which one is the best or strongest, always look at volumes and how they match with price actions during correction.
So far I have recovered almost 50% of paper profits lost during panic selling, looking to have 80% recovery after completion of bear rally - Yes, the rebound is still a bear rally, or a sucker rally.
Stocks Update on 22 Jun 06
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
18 June 2006
Market Technical Rebound Started
Note that even if in a downtrend or bear market, there are bouts of rebounds, shorter term averages tend to converge with longer term averages if the former is too distant from the later one resulting in oversold situations that prompt the short sellers to cover back shorted positions due to temptations of fat profits from shorting, which is the case in the current market, an oversold one.
I noticed that about 81 stocks on my radar screen had formed small double bottoms and had broken above their respective db necklines. Some of these breakouts were backed by heavy volumes, especially for some China plays.
What does this mean? The market is mature for a relief rally or a sucker rally as mentioned in the market comment in this blog a few days ago.
China plays may lead this rebound until shorter term averages converge with the longer term averages, resistance of this rally. Most stocks may have abilities to rebound about 50% of total fall from high.
Bear in mind that maybe this is merely a relief rally in the bear market, which may resume dropping after this bear rally. Remember to take this excellent opportunity to exit all long positions since the bear has been in this market for a while already and may continue to stay for a prolonged period.
To participate in this rebound, we may focus on following counters, buy or add positions near necklines of DBs, sell after rebounding of about 50% of total fall (This principle applies to existing positions, too.). It is not necessary to stick to the same counters in hand if you want to average down, buy the strongest ones instead since they are the most possible ones to outperform the general market and those laggards in large margins.
China Essence db .455 -.505
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61
Mediaring
China Dairy db .465-.51
China Paper tb nl .325
China Precision db .265-.32
MidasChinaPetro db .43-.50
EzyhealthXPress db .125-.14
LongcheerPac Andes db .635-.70
Link Hi db .15-?
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
Note that even if in a downtrend or bear market, there are bouts of rebounds, shorter term averages tend to converge with longer term averages if the former is too distant from the later one resulting in oversold situations that prompt the short sellers to cover back shorted positions due to temptations of fat profits from shorting, which is the case in the current market, an oversold one.
I noticed that about 81 stocks on my radar screen had formed small double bottoms and had broken above their respective db necklines. Some of these breakouts were backed by heavy volumes, especially for some China plays.
What does this mean? The market is mature for a relief rally or a sucker rally as mentioned in the market comment in this blog a few days ago.
China plays may lead this rebound until shorter term averages converge with the longer term averages, resistance of this rally. Most stocks may have abilities to rebound about 50% of total fall from high.
Bear in mind that maybe this is merely a relief rally in the bear market, which may resume dropping after this bear rally. Remember to take this excellent opportunity to exit all long positions since the bear has been in this market for a while already and may continue to stay for a prolonged period.
To participate in this rebound, we may focus on following counters, buy or add positions near necklines of DBs, sell after rebounding of about 50% of total fall (This principle applies to existing positions, too.). It is not necessary to stick to the same counters in hand if you want to average down, buy the strongest ones instead since they are the most possible ones to outperform the general market and those laggards in large margins.
China Essence db .455 -.505
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61
Mediaring
China Dairy db .465-.51
China Paper tb nl .325
China Precision db .265-.32
MidasChinaPetro db .43-.50
EzyhealthXPress db .125-.14
LongcheerPac Andes db .635-.70
Link Hi db .15-?
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
10 June 2006
Market technical rebound not far away
Note that many stocks have completed a standard 5 down waves, the market may be ready to enter bottom building phase in next 1 to several weeks to form a bottom formation before general rebounding.
Some leaders have completed bottom construction and have broken above the necklines of their bottom formations.
Seems market technical rebound is not far away. But remember this may just be a technical rebound or a sucker rally. The bear may have come into the market hinting by 5 down waves appearing on many stock charts. For the time being, it may be appropriate to take this rebound as a technical rebound or sucker rally or wave B retracing the sharp fall from highest point to current low. Most stocks will rebound about 50% of total price drop calculating from lowest point to highest point. This rebound will provide an excellent opportunity to exit the long positions with some profit or at least with much lower losses for majority traders.
After rebounding, we may use another strategy to make money even faster in the bear market - borrowing stocks and shorting, pending confirmation by market trends. We need a general market downtrend to execute this strategy, just like that we need a general market uptrend to execute long strategy.
Note that many stocks have completed a standard 5 down waves, the market may be ready to enter bottom building phase in next 1 to several weeks to form a bottom formation before general rebounding.
Some leaders have completed bottom construction and have broken above the necklines of their bottom formations.
Seems market technical rebound is not far away. But remember this may just be a technical rebound or a sucker rally. The bear may have come into the market hinting by 5 down waves appearing on many stock charts. For the time being, it may be appropriate to take this rebound as a technical rebound or sucker rally or wave B retracing the sharp fall from highest point to current low. Most stocks will rebound about 50% of total price drop calculating from lowest point to highest point. This rebound will provide an excellent opportunity to exit the long positions with some profit or at least with much lower losses for majority traders.
After rebounding, we may use another strategy to make money even faster in the bear market - borrowing stocks and shorting, pending confirmation by market trends. We need a general market downtrend to execute this strategy, just like that we need a general market uptrend to execute long strategy.
03 June 2006
Shopping List - Establish test positions
Read all charts of 190 stocks on my radar screen, found that 8 stocks have led the market crowd and formed double bottoms and broken above respective necklines of double bottoms. They may become leaders in the much expected rebound,
Norelco ---buy .485 to .495
Boustead---buy 1.12 to 1.13
Biotreat---buy 1.07 to 1.10
MIT---buy .155 to .16
PineAgri---buy 1.81 to 1.83
TAT---buy .95 to .96
Telechoice---buy .30 to .31
Wing Tai---buy 1.63 to 1.66
Read all charts of 190 stocks on my radar screen, found that 8 stocks have led the market crowd and formed double bottoms and broken above respective necklines of double bottoms. They may become leaders in the much expected rebound,
Norelco ---buy .485 to .495
Boustead---buy 1.12 to 1.13
Biotreat---buy 1.07 to 1.10
MIT---buy .155 to .16
PineAgri---buy 1.81 to 1.83
TAT---buy .95 to .96
Telechoice---buy .30 to .31
Wing Tai---buy 1.63 to 1.66
02 June 2006
Reflection
Singapore market may take a few days to weeks to construct a solid standard bottom formation such as a small double bottom before any significant rebound or reversal for all stocks and indices.
Bottom fishing has been proved to be a silly way to make money. Never do bottom fishing in the future until standard bottom formations such as double bottoms form, become mature, break out, being confirmed by volumes and long white and strong candles on the daily charts of many indices or stocks, say, 20 .
That's why I have stopped covering individual stocks until certain bottom formations are formed, which I'm sure have to form before any significant rebound or reversal, considering the huge free fall or panic selling in the past weeks, which have effectively wiped out all the paper profits accumulated since start of this year 2006. Market needs to calm down and rest first.
However, no worry, opportunities will be plenty once the market finds its solid bottom, indicating by forming bottom foramtions such as double bottoms on the indices and individual stocks.
Note that currently Dow and Nasdaq have formed double bottoms on the daily charts, which is an early indication that the world market may have bottomed out. But Singapore market is much worse than US market in the recent plunge. Many stocks are keeping on creating new lows even until yesterday, causing serous damages to the confidence of traders.
All the losses or losses of paper profits will have to come back through proper trading and prudent money management in the future. That's my hope.
Wish all the traders to have a good rest before restarting of the trading game.
Singapore market may take a few days to weeks to construct a solid standard bottom formation such as a small double bottom before any significant rebound or reversal for all stocks and indices.
Bottom fishing has been proved to be a silly way to make money. Never do bottom fishing in the future until standard bottom formations such as double bottoms form, become mature, break out, being confirmed by volumes and long white and strong candles on the daily charts of many indices or stocks, say, 20 .
That's why I have stopped covering individual stocks until certain bottom formations are formed, which I'm sure have to form before any significant rebound or reversal, considering the huge free fall or panic selling in the past weeks, which have effectively wiped out all the paper profits accumulated since start of this year 2006. Market needs to calm down and rest first.
However, no worry, opportunities will be plenty once the market finds its solid bottom, indicating by forming bottom foramtions such as double bottoms on the indices and individual stocks.
Note that currently Dow and Nasdaq have formed double bottoms on the daily charts, which is an early indication that the world market may have bottomed out. But Singapore market is much worse than US market in the recent plunge. Many stocks are keeping on creating new lows even until yesterday, causing serous damages to the confidence of traders.
All the losses or losses of paper profits will have to come back through proper trading and prudent money management in the future. That's my hope.
Wish all the traders to have a good rest before restarting of the trading game.
