08 November 2018
Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) market cycles provided 4 major opportunities in the past 31 years from 1987 to 2018
Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) market cycles provided 4 major opportunities in the past 31 years from 1987 to 2018.
Assume you got USD1m, your money was trippled to USD3m in the first opportunity; USD9m in the 2nd; USD27m in the 3rd; USD81m in the 4th!
Assume you got another 4 opportunities in the coming 31 years, what will happen?
What will happen if you use a margin of 300% in each opportunity?
So my friend, do not worry too much. Even if you got USD100k only now, you could have USD8.1m after 31 years!
Long Term Investment Strategy:
Buy the bluest stocks at 100% of planned amount after STI drops by 50% from high; buy another 50% with margin after STI drops by 60%; buy another 25% with margin after STI drops by 70%.
All of following conditions must be met before long term buying.
MSCI World Market Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient world wide)
S&P 500 dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure US drop is significant and sufficient thus does not affect other countries especially the country you are in)
STI Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient country wide thus does not affect the sector you are in)
Sector Index of the stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient sector wide thus does not affect the stocks you are in)
Stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient)
Check past 30 to 50 years of chart history of the candidate stocks (usually coming from the national stock index component companies) and select those stocks that rose the most in percentage (much much more than the index growth) in every bull market from the bear market bottom; (To makke sure you are able to outperform the index)
Target price: rising by at least 200% from the bear market bottom. (This is the minimum target, do not consider profit taking before this price)
Assume you got USD1m, your money was trippled to USD3m in the first opportunity; USD9m in the 2nd; USD27m in the 3rd; USD81m in the 4th!
Assume you got another 4 opportunities in the coming 31 years, what will happen?
What will happen if you use a margin of 300% in each opportunity?
So my friend, do not worry too much. Even if you got USD100k only now, you could have USD8.1m after 31 years!
Long Term Investment Strategy:
Buy the bluest stocks at 100% of planned amount after STI drops by 50% from high; buy another 50% with margin after STI drops by 60%; buy another 25% with margin after STI drops by 70%.
All of following conditions must be met before long term buying.
MSCI World Market Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient world wide)
S&P 500 dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure US drop is significant and sufficient thus does not affect other countries especially the country you are in)
STI Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient country wide thus does not affect the sector you are in)
Sector Index of the stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient sector wide thus does not affect the stocks you are in)
Stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient)
Check past 30 to 50 years of chart history of the candidate stocks (usually coming from the national stock index component companies) and select those stocks that rose the most in percentage (much much more than the index growth) in every bull market from the bear market bottom; (To makke sure you are able to outperform the index)
Target price: rising by at least 200% from the bear market bottom. (This is the minimum target, do not consider profit taking before this price)
Labels: Back Test, Charts, Historical Teachings, History, Margin, plan, STI ETF, Stock Trading System, Thoughts, Value Investing, Warren Buffett
21 September 2018
High Probability Trading Strategy — A Complete Guide
Credit: Rayner Teo
Do you want to find high probability trading setups?
I’m sure you do, right? (Or you won’t be reading this right now)
But the thing is…
…you’re not sure how.
Instead of looking at price, you’re looking at indicators (without understanding the purpose of it).
Instead of following trends, you’re trying to predict market reversals.
Instead of proper risk management, you put on a huge bet because this trade “feels good”.
Now…
If you’re doing any of the above, then it will be difficult to identify high probability trading setups.
But don’t worry.
I’ve got good news for you.
Because in this post, I’ll teach you step-by-step on how to find high probability trading setups.
Here’s what you’ll learn:
Why trading with the trend increase your returns and reduce your risk
How to identify the best areas to trade on your chart
How to trade pullback, breakouts, and the failure test pattern
How to set a proper trading stop loss so you don’t get stopped out “too early”
A high probability trading strategy that lets you profit in bull & bear markets
Are you ready?
Then let’s begin…
Secret Bonus:
Get my free training video where you’ll learn how to identify high probability trading setups (include trading techniques that you can use to profit in the markets immediately)
The trend gives you the biggest bang for your buck
The definition of the trend is this…
Uptrend – consists of higher highs and lows
Downtrend – consists of lower highs and lows
If you want to know where’s the path of least resistance, look left (and follow the trend).
When the price is in an uptrend, you should stay long. When the price is in a downtrend, you should stay short.
By trading with the trend, you can see that the impulse move (green) goes much more in your favor, compared to the corrective move (red).
Here are a couple of examples…
most bang for buck 2most bang
Now you’re probably wondering:
Rayner, identifying a trend looks easy. But how do I enter an existing trend?
And this is what we’re covering next…
Trade in the direction of the general market. If it’s rising you should be long, if it’s falling you should be short. – Jesse Livermore
How to identify areas of value on your chart
You’d probably heard of the saying, “buy low sell high”.
But the question nobody asks is…
…what’s low and what’s high, right?
This is where Support & Resistance comes into the picture.
Support & Resistance
And this is the definition of it:
Support – an area with potential buying pressure to push price higher (area of value in an uptrend)
Resistance – an area with potential selling pressure to push price lower (area of value in a downtrend)
Here’s what I mean…
support in uptrendresistance in downtrend
Dynamic Support & Resistance
What you’ve seen earlier is what I call, classical Support & Resistance (horizontal lines)
Alternatively, it can come in the form of moving average. This is known as dynamic Support & Resistance (and I use the 20 & 50 EMA).
This is what I mean…
dynamic support2dynamic resistance2
Not only does support & resistance allows you to trade from an area of value, it improves your risk to reward and winning rate as well.
Watch this training video below and learn how:
Now, another “trick” you can use is to use overbought/oversold indicators.
High probability trading — using Stochastic to identify areas of value
A big mistake most traders make is, going short just because the price is overbought, or oversold.
Because in a strong trending market, the market can be overbought/oversold for a sustained period of time (and if you’re trading without stops, you risk losing your entire account).
Here’s what I mean:
oversold for long periodoverbought for long period
Now you’re wondering:
How do I use Stochastic to identify areas of value?
Here’s the secret…
Are you ready?
In an uptrend, you only look for longs, when the price is oversold.
In a downtrend, you only look for shorts, when the price is overbought.
Here’re some examples:
oversold in uptrendoverbought in downtrend
If you follow this simple rule, you can “predict” when a pullback will usually end.
So, you’ve learned how to identify areas of value on your chart.
Now…
…you’ll learn how to better time your entries.
How to enter your trades
There’re 3 ways you can enter a trade:
Pullback
Breakout
Failure test
Pullback
A pullback is when price temporarily moves against the underlying trend.
In an uptrend, a pullback would be a move a lower.
Here’s an example:
pullbacks in uptrend
And…
In a downtrend, a pullback would be a move higher.
An example:
pullbacks in downtrend
According to the work’s of Adam Grimes, trading pullbacks has a statistical edge in the markets as proven here.
You may wonder:
What are the pros and cons of trading pullbacks?
Advantages of trading pullbacks:
You get a good trade location as you’re buying into an area of value. This gives you a better risk to reward profile.
Disadvantages of trading pullbacks:
You may potentially miss a move if the price doesn’t come into your identified area.
You’ll be trading against the underlying momentum.
Breakout
A breakout is when price moves outside of a defined boundary.
The boundary can be defined using classical support & resistance.
Breakout to the upside:
upside breakout
Breakout to the downside:
downside breakout
You’re wondering:
What are the pros and cons of trading breakouts?
Advantages of trading breakouts:
You will always capture the move.
You are trading with the underlying momentum.
Disadvantages of trading breakouts:
You get a poor trade location as you’re paying a premium.
You may encounter a lot of false breakouts.
For a more in-depth explanation, go read The Definitive Guide to Trading Pullbacks and Breakouts.
Failure test
This technique possibly originated from Victor Sperandeo, and the works of Adam Grimes shows that it has a statistical edge in the markets.
It works like this…
You’re entering your trade when the price does a false breakout of Support/Resistance. Thus taking advantage of traders who are trapped from trading the breakout.
This entry can be applied in a trending or range market.
Here’re a few examples:
failure test2failure test3failure test1
For further explanation, watch this training video below:
Now, the next thing you’re going to learn is…
How to set your stop loss
Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose. – Bruce Kovner
I’m going to share with you 3 ways to do it:
Volatility stop
Time stop
Structure stop
Volatility stop
A volatility stop takes into account the volatility of the market.
An indicator that measure volatility is the Average True Range (ATR), which can help set your stop loss.
You need to identify the current ATR value and multiply it by a factor of your choice. 2ATR, 3ATR, 4ATR etc.
atr
In the example above, the ATR is 71 pips.
So if you were to place a stop loss of 2ATR, take 2*71 = 142 pips
Your stop loss is 142 pips from your entry.
Pros:
Your stop loss is based on the volatility of the market
An objective way to define how much “buffer” you need from your entry
Cons:
It’s a lagging indicator because it is based on past prices
Time stop
A time stop determines when you exit your trades based on time.
Instead of exiting your trades based on price, you exit your trades after X amount of time has passed.
You need to define how much time you will allow before exiting it.
An example:
You took a short trade at resistance area. But after 5 days it’s not going anywhere, so you exit your trade.
time3
Pros:
You reduce losses
If you have trading records, you can identify optimal amount of time to give your trades
Cons:
You may exit prematurely only to see price move in your favor
Structure stop
A structure stop takes into account the structure of the market and set your stop loss accordingly.
An example…
Support is an area where price may potentially trade higher from. In other words, it’s a “barrier” that prevents further price decline.
Thus, it makes sense to have your stop loss below Support. Vice versa for Resistance.
Here’s what I mean:
sl below supportsl above resistance
You want to place your stop loss where there is a structure in the market that can act as a “barrier” for you.
Below is a training video that explains this concept in more detail…
Pros:
You know exactly when you’re wrong because market structure has broken
You’re using “barriers” in the market to prevent price from hitting your stops
Cons:
You need wider stop loss if the structure of the market is large (this results in smaller position size to keep your risk constant)
If you want to learn more, go read 13 ways to set your stop loss to reduce risk and maximise profits.
Now, let’s move on…
What is confluence and how it impacts your trading
Here’s the thing:
You’re not going to enter a long trade just because Stochastic is oversold, or the market is in an uptrend.
You’d need additional “supporting evidence” to give you the signal, to enter the trade. And this “supporting evidence” is known as, confluence.
Confluence is when two or more factors give the same trading signal. E.g. The market is in an uptrend, and price retraces to an area of support.
Here’re two guidelines for you:
1. Not more than four confluence factors
The more confluence you have, the higher the probability of your trade working out. But…
In the real world, your trading strategy should have anywhere between 2 – 4 confluence factors.
Anything more, chances are you’re going to get very little trading setups. And it’ll take you forever before your edge can play out.
You can take mediocre trading setups, and still make money in the long run.
2. Do not have more than one confluence factor in the same category
If you’re going to use indicators (oscillators) to identify overbought/oversold areas, then use that only.
Don’t add Stochastic, RSI and CCI because it’ll leave you with analysis paralysis. Similarly…
…adding simple, exponential and weighted moving average on your charts, doesn’t make any sense.
If you’re still reading at the point, you’re in for a treat. Because here comes the exciting part…
A high probability trading strategy that lets you profit in bull & bear markets
And here’s my secret (which is what you’ve just learned)…
Trade with the trend
Trade at areas of value
Find an entry
Set my stop loss
Plan my exit
If a trade meets these 5 criteria, then its a good trade to me.
Now, let’s learn a new trading strategy, that gives you high probability trading setups.
Are you ready?
Here it goes…
If 200ma is pointing higher and the price is above it, then it’s an uptrend (trading with the trend).
If it’s an uptrend, then wait for the price to pullback to an area of support (trading at an area of value).
If price pullback to an area of support, then wait for failure test entry (my entry trigger).
If there’s failure test entry, then go long on next candle’s open (my entry trigger).
If a trade is entered, then place a stop loss below the low of the candle, and take profit at nearest swing high (my exit and profit target).
Vice versa for a downtrend
**Disclaimer: I will not be responsible for any profit or loss resulting from using this trading strategy. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Please do your own due diligence before risking your hard earned money.
Here’re a few trading examples:
high probability trading setup3high probability trading setup2high probability trading setup1
Secret Bonus:
Get my free training video where you’ll learn how to identify high probability trading setups (include trading techniques that you can use to profit in the markets immediately)
Here’s the thing:
You may not be comfortable using my trading strategy because it may not suit you.
So, what you need to do is, “tweak” it into something that fits you. And this is what we’ll cover next…
I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. – Ed Seykota
How to develop a high probability trading strategy (a template you can use)
You can “mix and match” different trading techniques I’ve shared with you earlier.
But ultimately, your trading strategy needs to answer these 7 questions:
1. How are you going to define a trend?
You can consider moving average, trendline, structure etc.
2. How are you going to define an area of value?
You can consider dynamic Support & Resistance, weekly highs/lows, Stochastic etc.
3. How are you going to enter your trade?
You can consider pullbacks, breakouts, failure test, moving average crossover etc.
4. How are you going to exit your trade?
There’re many ways to exit a trade. Go read 13 Ways to Set Your Stop Loss to Reduce Risk and Maximise Profits to learn more.
5. How much are you going to risk on each trade?
I would suggest risking no more than 1% of your account on each trade, to avoid the risk of ruin.
6. How are you going to manage your trade?
Will you scale out or scale in your trades? If so, how much?
7. Which markets will you be trading?
Are you focusing on one market or many markets?
If you trade a variety of markets, you want to be aware of the correlation between markets.
Do you want to find high probability trading setups?
I’m sure you do, right? (Or you won’t be reading this right now)
But the thing is…
…you’re not sure how.
Instead of looking at price, you’re looking at indicators (without understanding the purpose of it).
Instead of following trends, you’re trying to predict market reversals.
Instead of proper risk management, you put on a huge bet because this trade “feels good”.
Now…
If you’re doing any of the above, then it will be difficult to identify high probability trading setups.
But don’t worry.
I’ve got good news for you.
Because in this post, I’ll teach you step-by-step on how to find high probability trading setups.
Here’s what you’ll learn:
Why trading with the trend increase your returns and reduce your risk
How to identify the best areas to trade on your chart
How to trade pullback, breakouts, and the failure test pattern
How to set a proper trading stop loss so you don’t get stopped out “too early”
A high probability trading strategy that lets you profit in bull & bear markets
Are you ready?
Then let’s begin…
Secret Bonus:
Get my free training video where you’ll learn how to identify high probability trading setups (include trading techniques that you can use to profit in the markets immediately)
The trend gives you the biggest bang for your buck
The definition of the trend is this…
Uptrend – consists of higher highs and lows
Downtrend – consists of lower highs and lows
If you want to know where’s the path of least resistance, look left (and follow the trend).
When the price is in an uptrend, you should stay long. When the price is in a downtrend, you should stay short.
By trading with the trend, you can see that the impulse move (green) goes much more in your favor, compared to the corrective move (red).
Here are a couple of examples…
most bang for buck 2most bang
Now you’re probably wondering:
Rayner, identifying a trend looks easy. But how do I enter an existing trend?
And this is what we’re covering next…
Trade in the direction of the general market. If it’s rising you should be long, if it’s falling you should be short. – Jesse Livermore
How to identify areas of value on your chart
You’d probably heard of the saying, “buy low sell high”.
But the question nobody asks is…
…what’s low and what’s high, right?
This is where Support & Resistance comes into the picture.
Support & Resistance
And this is the definition of it:
Support – an area with potential buying pressure to push price higher (area of value in an uptrend)
Resistance – an area with potential selling pressure to push price lower (area of value in a downtrend)
Here’s what I mean…
support in uptrendresistance in downtrend
Dynamic Support & Resistance
What you’ve seen earlier is what I call, classical Support & Resistance (horizontal lines)
Alternatively, it can come in the form of moving average. This is known as dynamic Support & Resistance (and I use the 20 & 50 EMA).
This is what I mean…
dynamic support2dynamic resistance2
Not only does support & resistance allows you to trade from an area of value, it improves your risk to reward and winning rate as well.
Watch this training video below and learn how:
Now, another “trick” you can use is to use overbought/oversold indicators.
High probability trading — using Stochastic to identify areas of value
A big mistake most traders make is, going short just because the price is overbought, or oversold.
Because in a strong trending market, the market can be overbought/oversold for a sustained period of time (and if you’re trading without stops, you risk losing your entire account).
Here’s what I mean:
oversold for long periodoverbought for long period
Now you’re wondering:
How do I use Stochastic to identify areas of value?
Here’s the secret…
Are you ready?
In an uptrend, you only look for longs, when the price is oversold.
In a downtrend, you only look for shorts, when the price is overbought.
Here’re some examples:
oversold in uptrendoverbought in downtrend
If you follow this simple rule, you can “predict” when a pullback will usually end.
So, you’ve learned how to identify areas of value on your chart.
Now…
…you’ll learn how to better time your entries.
How to enter your trades
There’re 3 ways you can enter a trade:
Pullback
Breakout
Failure test
Pullback
A pullback is when price temporarily moves against the underlying trend.
In an uptrend, a pullback would be a move a lower.
Here’s an example:
pullbacks in uptrend
And…
In a downtrend, a pullback would be a move higher.
An example:
pullbacks in downtrend
According to the work’s of Adam Grimes, trading pullbacks has a statistical edge in the markets as proven here.
You may wonder:
What are the pros and cons of trading pullbacks?
Advantages of trading pullbacks:
You get a good trade location as you’re buying into an area of value. This gives you a better risk to reward profile.
Disadvantages of trading pullbacks:
You may potentially miss a move if the price doesn’t come into your identified area.
You’ll be trading against the underlying momentum.
Breakout
A breakout is when price moves outside of a defined boundary.
The boundary can be defined using classical support & resistance.
Breakout to the upside:
upside breakout
Breakout to the downside:
downside breakout
You’re wondering:
What are the pros and cons of trading breakouts?
Advantages of trading breakouts:
You will always capture the move.
You are trading with the underlying momentum.
Disadvantages of trading breakouts:
You get a poor trade location as you’re paying a premium.
You may encounter a lot of false breakouts.
For a more in-depth explanation, go read The Definitive Guide to Trading Pullbacks and Breakouts.
Failure test
This technique possibly originated from Victor Sperandeo, and the works of Adam Grimes shows that it has a statistical edge in the markets.
It works like this…
You’re entering your trade when the price does a false breakout of Support/Resistance. Thus taking advantage of traders who are trapped from trading the breakout.
This entry can be applied in a trending or range market.
Here’re a few examples:
failure test2failure test3failure test1
For further explanation, watch this training video below:
Now, the next thing you’re going to learn is…
How to set your stop loss
Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose. – Bruce Kovner
I’m going to share with you 3 ways to do it:
Volatility stop
Time stop
Structure stop
Volatility stop
A volatility stop takes into account the volatility of the market.
An indicator that measure volatility is the Average True Range (ATR), which can help set your stop loss.
You need to identify the current ATR value and multiply it by a factor of your choice. 2ATR, 3ATR, 4ATR etc.
atr
In the example above, the ATR is 71 pips.
So if you were to place a stop loss of 2ATR, take 2*71 = 142 pips
Your stop loss is 142 pips from your entry.
Pros:
Your stop loss is based on the volatility of the market
An objective way to define how much “buffer” you need from your entry
Cons:
It’s a lagging indicator because it is based on past prices
Time stop
A time stop determines when you exit your trades based on time.
Instead of exiting your trades based on price, you exit your trades after X amount of time has passed.
You need to define how much time you will allow before exiting it.
An example:
You took a short trade at resistance area. But after 5 days it’s not going anywhere, so you exit your trade.
time3
Pros:
You reduce losses
If you have trading records, you can identify optimal amount of time to give your trades
Cons:
You may exit prematurely only to see price move in your favor
Structure stop
A structure stop takes into account the structure of the market and set your stop loss accordingly.
An example…
Support is an area where price may potentially trade higher from. In other words, it’s a “barrier” that prevents further price decline.
Thus, it makes sense to have your stop loss below Support. Vice versa for Resistance.
Here’s what I mean:
sl below supportsl above resistance
You want to place your stop loss where there is a structure in the market that can act as a “barrier” for you.
Below is a training video that explains this concept in more detail…
Pros:
You know exactly when you’re wrong because market structure has broken
You’re using “barriers” in the market to prevent price from hitting your stops
Cons:
You need wider stop loss if the structure of the market is large (this results in smaller position size to keep your risk constant)
If you want to learn more, go read 13 ways to set your stop loss to reduce risk and maximise profits.
Now, let’s move on…
What is confluence and how it impacts your trading
Here’s the thing:
You’re not going to enter a long trade just because Stochastic is oversold, or the market is in an uptrend.
You’d need additional “supporting evidence” to give you the signal, to enter the trade. And this “supporting evidence” is known as, confluence.
Confluence is when two or more factors give the same trading signal. E.g. The market is in an uptrend, and price retraces to an area of support.
Here’re two guidelines for you:
1. Not more than four confluence factors
The more confluence you have, the higher the probability of your trade working out. But…
In the real world, your trading strategy should have anywhere between 2 – 4 confluence factors.
Anything more, chances are you’re going to get very little trading setups. And it’ll take you forever before your edge can play out.
You can take mediocre trading setups, and still make money in the long run.
2. Do not have more than one confluence factor in the same category
If you’re going to use indicators (oscillators) to identify overbought/oversold areas, then use that only.
Don’t add Stochastic, RSI and CCI because it’ll leave you with analysis paralysis. Similarly…
…adding simple, exponential and weighted moving average on your charts, doesn’t make any sense.
If you’re still reading at the point, you’re in for a treat. Because here comes the exciting part…
A high probability trading strategy that lets you profit in bull & bear markets
And here’s my secret (which is what you’ve just learned)…
Trade with the trend
Trade at areas of value
Find an entry
Set my stop loss
Plan my exit
If a trade meets these 5 criteria, then its a good trade to me.
Now, let’s learn a new trading strategy, that gives you high probability trading setups.
Are you ready?
Here it goes…
If 200ma is pointing higher and the price is above it, then it’s an uptrend (trading with the trend).
If it’s an uptrend, then wait for the price to pullback to an area of support (trading at an area of value).
If price pullback to an area of support, then wait for failure test entry (my entry trigger).
If there’s failure test entry, then go long on next candle’s open (my entry trigger).
If a trade is entered, then place a stop loss below the low of the candle, and take profit at nearest swing high (my exit and profit target).
Vice versa for a downtrend
**Disclaimer: I will not be responsible for any profit or loss resulting from using this trading strategy. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Please do your own due diligence before risking your hard earned money.
Here’re a few trading examples:
high probability trading setup3high probability trading setup2high probability trading setup1
Secret Bonus:
Get my free training video where you’ll learn how to identify high probability trading setups (include trading techniques that you can use to profit in the markets immediately)
Here’s the thing:
You may not be comfortable using my trading strategy because it may not suit you.
So, what you need to do is, “tweak” it into something that fits you. And this is what we’ll cover next…
I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. – Ed Seykota
How to develop a high probability trading strategy (a template you can use)
You can “mix and match” different trading techniques I’ve shared with you earlier.
But ultimately, your trading strategy needs to answer these 7 questions:
1. How are you going to define a trend?
You can consider moving average, trendline, structure etc.
2. How are you going to define an area of value?
You can consider dynamic Support & Resistance, weekly highs/lows, Stochastic etc.
3. How are you going to enter your trade?
You can consider pullbacks, breakouts, failure test, moving average crossover etc.
4. How are you going to exit your trade?
There’re many ways to exit a trade. Go read 13 Ways to Set Your Stop Loss to Reduce Risk and Maximise Profits to learn more.
5. How much are you going to risk on each trade?
I would suggest risking no more than 1% of your account on each trade, to avoid the risk of ruin.
6. How are you going to manage your trade?
Will you scale out or scale in your trades? If so, how much?
7. Which markets will you be trading?
Are you focusing on one market or many markets?
If you trade a variety of markets, you want to be aware of the correlation between markets.
Labels: Forex, Investment Quote, Reference, Risk Management, Stock Trading System
20 September 2018
10 Best Trading Tips You Can Learn in 10 Minutes That Improves Your Trading
Credit: Rayner Teo
Have you heard of the “Pareto principle”?
It’s known as the 80-20 rule, where 80% of the results is due to 20% of the effort.
So, what does this mean?
For a business, 20% of its clients produce 80% of its revenue.
For a software, 20% of its features cause 80% of its usage.
And for a trader, 20% of your actions produce 80% of your results.
Now… there are so many things a trader can focus on. Entries, exits, risk management, position sizing, fundamentals etc.
But the question is…
Which are the 20% that you must focus on, to deliver the biggest results?
So, this is what you’ll be learning today…
The 10 best forex trading tips that you can learn in 10 minutes, that will improve your trading immediately.
Are you ready?
Then let’s begin.
10 trading tips
Best forex trading tips #1: Don’t scare yourself out of a trade by going into lower time frames
Look:
If you enter a trade on the daily time frame, then manage that trade on the daily time frame.
A big mistake you can do is, drilling down into a lower time frame, and scare yourself out of the trade.
Here’s what I mean…
micro manage1micro manage2micro manage3
The takeaway is this…
If you enter off the daily time frame, you set your stop loss and manage your trade on the daily time frame.
If you enter off the 1-hour time frame, you set your stop loss and manage your trade on the 1-hour time frame.
If you enter off the 15 minutes time frame, you set your stop loss and manage your trade on the 15 minutes time frame.
Get it?
2. Place your stop loss at a level where your trading setup is invalidated
Don’t set your stop loss based on a dollar amount you’re willing to lose.
Instead…
Set it based on the structure of the markets, where if your stop loss is triggered, you know you’re wrong.
For example, if you’re long at support, then a break of support would mean you’re wrong…
support
Or if you’re trading a breakout, then a close back into the range would mean you’re wrong…
breakout
If you want more examples… go watch this training video below:
3. Trading with the trend increases the probability of your trades
When the market is trending, it has an ebb and flow with two different “legs” in it.
Impulse move – Longer “leg” that trades in the direction of the trend
Corrective move – Shorter “leg” that trades against the direction of the trend
By trading with the trend, you’ll get a bigger bang for your buck as the impulse move is stronger than the corrective move. This gives you greater profitability for the same amount of risk.
Here’s what I mean:
most-bangmost-bang-for-buck-2
The trend is your friend… right?
4. You need to find a trading method that suits you
If you love watching the markets and have all the time in the world, then a long-term trend following approach will not suit you. You’d micromanage your trades on the shorter time frames, and miss the longer term trend.
Or…
If you have a full-time job and can’t afford to watch the markets, then intraday trading will not suit you. You’d miss trading opportunities because you do not focus on the trading session.
Or…
If you love to build systematic trading systems, then learning how to read chart patterns and price action will not suit you. You’d be frustrated because there are some things in the market that can’t be quantified.
So whats my point?
My point is… you need to find a trading approach that suits you, yourself.
Here’s how you can increase the odds of your success:
Adopt a trading method that fits your belief about the markets (if you don’t believe in trends, then trying to be a trend follower is ridiculous)
Find a trading time frame that suits your schedule (if you have little time to trade, stick to the higher time frames)
Don’t hop from one trading system to the next, just because you see another trader having success with it (that’s a sure fire way to remain a consistently inconsistent trader)
5. Don’t abandon your trading strategy after a few losing trades
Why?
Because no matter how good a trading strategy is, in the short run your results are random.
And this can be explained using the law of large number…
If you take a coin and toss it 1000 times, you’d get close to 50% heads and 50% tails.
However, if you toss it 10 times only, it’s unlikely to be 50% heads and 50% tails due to the small sample size.
And its the same in trading…
You cannot conclude a trading strategy doesn’t work based on a small sample size because, in the short run, your results are random.
Instead… you need a minimum of 100 trades to find out whether your trading strategy has an edge in the markets.
6. A trading plan makes you a more disciplined trader
One of the biggest reasons why you fail as a trader is because you don’t have a trading plan.
You’re trading decisions based on your emotions, subjectivity, and opinions of the market.
Getting into trades because:
Of an “insider tip” you heard from a friend
You think price can’t go any lower
You’re bored
And here’s the thing…
If you have an inconsistent set of actions, how do you expect to have a consistent set of results?
Here’s the thing:
The only way you’re going to achieve consistent trading performance is by having a consistent set of actions, and this can be achieved by following your trading plan.
If you want to learn how to develop your trading plan, read this post here.
7. Risk 1% on each trade to prevent your own destruction
Imagine:
You have a trading system that wins 50% of the time with 1:2 risk reward.
And you have a hypothetical outcome of L L L L W W W W
It’s a profitable system, right?
It depends.
If you risk 30% of your equity, you’d blow up by the 4th trade (-30 -30 -30 -30 = -120%)
But…
If you risk 1% of your equity, you’d have a gain of 4% (-1 -1 -1 -1 +2 +2 +2 +2 = 4%)
Having a winning system without proper risk management isn’t going to get you anywhere.
You need a winning system with proper risk management.
And not forgetting…
The recovery from the risk of ruin is not linear, it could be impossible to recover if it goes too deep.
risk of ruin
If you lose 50% of your capital, you need to make back 100% to break even.
Yes, you read right. 100%, not 50%.
That’s why you always want to risk a fraction of your equity, especially when your winning ratio is less than 50%.
So, how much should you risk exactly?
This depends on your winning ratio, the risk to reward, and your risk tolerance. I would advise risking no more than 1% per trade.
8. You don’t need to know everything to be a profitable trader
Why do I say that?
Because I made the mistake of thinking I needed to know everything, in order to make money from trading.
And my turning point was when I realized that, less is more.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo Da Vinci
CLICK TO TWEET
Now, I’m here to tell you this:
You don’t need to know any fundamentals of the market you’re trading
You don’t need to know what the big players are doing
You don’t need to know what is pivot point
You don’t need to know what is a Crab pattern
You don’t need 6 monitors to trade
You don’t need to purchase any proprietary software, tools or indicators
And you can still be a consistently profitable trader.
Now you’re probably wondering:
So, what do I need?
A trading strategy that has an “edge”
Proper risk management
The right trading psychology
Go watch this training video below as I’ll explain further:
9. Keep a trading journal if you’re serious about trading
Do you recall the past trades you’ve taken?
Perhaps there’s a chart pattern that is showing a high probability of success.
Perhaps your trading strategy that isn’t working well in current market conditions.
Perhaps you’re not following your trading plan which is causing your performance to deteriorate.
Now, if you don’t have a trading journal…
How do you know what you’re doing wrong?
How do you know what you’re doing right?
How do you know what can you improve on?
Get my point?
So, if you’re serious about trading, you must have a trading journal. And you can learn how to create one here.
10. One “trick” to improve the returns of your trading performance
No, it’s not adding another “filter”.
No, it’s not adjusting the parameters of your indicator.
Its… knowing when to stay out of the markets.
Here’s an example:
Let’s assume a trend following strategy would make 20% in a trending market, and lose 15% in a range market.
In a given year, the market was in a trend once, and in a range once. Thus netting a return of 5% (20 – 15).
Now, what if you can identify the range market, and stop trading during that period, would your returns improve?
You bet.
Instead of earning a return of 5%, you made 20% because you stopped trading when the markets weren’t favorable.
The takeaway is this…
You need to know when to stay long.
You need to know when to stay short.
And you need to know when to stay out.
Have you heard of the “Pareto principle”?
It’s known as the 80-20 rule, where 80% of the results is due to 20% of the effort.
So, what does this mean?
For a business, 20% of its clients produce 80% of its revenue.
For a software, 20% of its features cause 80% of its usage.
And for a trader, 20% of your actions produce 80% of your results.
Now… there are so many things a trader can focus on. Entries, exits, risk management, position sizing, fundamentals etc.
But the question is…
Which are the 20% that you must focus on, to deliver the biggest results?
So, this is what you’ll be learning today…
The 10 best forex trading tips that you can learn in 10 minutes, that will improve your trading immediately.
Are you ready?
Then let’s begin.
10 trading tips
Best forex trading tips #1: Don’t scare yourself out of a trade by going into lower time frames
Look:
If you enter a trade on the daily time frame, then manage that trade on the daily time frame.
A big mistake you can do is, drilling down into a lower time frame, and scare yourself out of the trade.
Here’s what I mean…
micro manage1micro manage2micro manage3
The takeaway is this…
If you enter off the daily time frame, you set your stop loss and manage your trade on the daily time frame.
If you enter off the 1-hour time frame, you set your stop loss and manage your trade on the 1-hour time frame.
If you enter off the 15 minutes time frame, you set your stop loss and manage your trade on the 15 minutes time frame.
Get it?
2. Place your stop loss at a level where your trading setup is invalidated
Don’t set your stop loss based on a dollar amount you’re willing to lose.
Instead…
Set it based on the structure of the markets, where if your stop loss is triggered, you know you’re wrong.
For example, if you’re long at support, then a break of support would mean you’re wrong…
support
Or if you’re trading a breakout, then a close back into the range would mean you’re wrong…
breakout
If you want more examples… go watch this training video below:
3. Trading with the trend increases the probability of your trades
When the market is trending, it has an ebb and flow with two different “legs” in it.
Impulse move – Longer “leg” that trades in the direction of the trend
Corrective move – Shorter “leg” that trades against the direction of the trend
By trading with the trend, you’ll get a bigger bang for your buck as the impulse move is stronger than the corrective move. This gives you greater profitability for the same amount of risk.
Here’s what I mean:
most-bangmost-bang-for-buck-2
The trend is your friend… right?
4. You need to find a trading method that suits you
If you love watching the markets and have all the time in the world, then a long-term trend following approach will not suit you. You’d micromanage your trades on the shorter time frames, and miss the longer term trend.
Or…
If you have a full-time job and can’t afford to watch the markets, then intraday trading will not suit you. You’d miss trading opportunities because you do not focus on the trading session.
Or…
If you love to build systematic trading systems, then learning how to read chart patterns and price action will not suit you. You’d be frustrated because there are some things in the market that can’t be quantified.
So whats my point?
My point is… you need to find a trading approach that suits you, yourself.
Here’s how you can increase the odds of your success:
Adopt a trading method that fits your belief about the markets (if you don’t believe in trends, then trying to be a trend follower is ridiculous)
Find a trading time frame that suits your schedule (if you have little time to trade, stick to the higher time frames)
Don’t hop from one trading system to the next, just because you see another trader having success with it (that’s a sure fire way to remain a consistently inconsistent trader)
5. Don’t abandon your trading strategy after a few losing trades
Why?
Because no matter how good a trading strategy is, in the short run your results are random.
And this can be explained using the law of large number…
If you take a coin and toss it 1000 times, you’d get close to 50% heads and 50% tails.
However, if you toss it 10 times only, it’s unlikely to be 50% heads and 50% tails due to the small sample size.
And its the same in trading…
You cannot conclude a trading strategy doesn’t work based on a small sample size because, in the short run, your results are random.
Instead… you need a minimum of 100 trades to find out whether your trading strategy has an edge in the markets.
6. A trading plan makes you a more disciplined trader
One of the biggest reasons why you fail as a trader is because you don’t have a trading plan.
You’re trading decisions based on your emotions, subjectivity, and opinions of the market.
Getting into trades because:
Of an “insider tip” you heard from a friend
You think price can’t go any lower
You’re bored
And here’s the thing…
If you have an inconsistent set of actions, how do you expect to have a consistent set of results?
Here’s the thing:
The only way you’re going to achieve consistent trading performance is by having a consistent set of actions, and this can be achieved by following your trading plan.
If you want to learn how to develop your trading plan, read this post here.
7. Risk 1% on each trade to prevent your own destruction
Imagine:
You have a trading system that wins 50% of the time with 1:2 risk reward.
And you have a hypothetical outcome of L L L L W W W W
It’s a profitable system, right?
It depends.
If you risk 30% of your equity, you’d blow up by the 4th trade (-30 -30 -30 -30 = -120%)
But…
If you risk 1% of your equity, you’d have a gain of 4% (-1 -1 -1 -1 +2 +2 +2 +2 = 4%)
Having a winning system without proper risk management isn’t going to get you anywhere.
You need a winning system with proper risk management.
And not forgetting…
The recovery from the risk of ruin is not linear, it could be impossible to recover if it goes too deep.
risk of ruin
If you lose 50% of your capital, you need to make back 100% to break even.
Yes, you read right. 100%, not 50%.
That’s why you always want to risk a fraction of your equity, especially when your winning ratio is less than 50%.
So, how much should you risk exactly?
This depends on your winning ratio, the risk to reward, and your risk tolerance. I would advise risking no more than 1% per trade.
8. You don’t need to know everything to be a profitable trader
Why do I say that?
Because I made the mistake of thinking I needed to know everything, in order to make money from trading.
And my turning point was when I realized that, less is more.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo Da Vinci
CLICK TO TWEET
Now, I’m here to tell you this:
You don’t need to know any fundamentals of the market you’re trading
You don’t need to know what the big players are doing
You don’t need to know what is pivot point
You don’t need to know what is a Crab pattern
You don’t need 6 monitors to trade
You don’t need to purchase any proprietary software, tools or indicators
And you can still be a consistently profitable trader.
Now you’re probably wondering:
So, what do I need?
A trading strategy that has an “edge”
Proper risk management
The right trading psychology
Go watch this training video below as I’ll explain further:
9. Keep a trading journal if you’re serious about trading
Do you recall the past trades you’ve taken?
Perhaps there’s a chart pattern that is showing a high probability of success.
Perhaps your trading strategy that isn’t working well in current market conditions.
Perhaps you’re not following your trading plan which is causing your performance to deteriorate.
Now, if you don’t have a trading journal…
How do you know what you’re doing wrong?
How do you know what you’re doing right?
How do you know what can you improve on?
Get my point?
So, if you’re serious about trading, you must have a trading journal. And you can learn how to create one here.
10. One “trick” to improve the returns of your trading performance
No, it’s not adding another “filter”.
No, it’s not adjusting the parameters of your indicator.
Its… knowing when to stay out of the markets.
Here’s an example:
Let’s assume a trend following strategy would make 20% in a trending market, and lose 15% in a range market.
In a given year, the market was in a trend once, and in a range once. Thus netting a return of 5% (20 – 15).
Now, what if you can identify the range market, and stop trading during that period, would your returns improve?
You bet.
Instead of earning a return of 5%, you made 20% because you stopped trading when the markets weren’t favorable.
The takeaway is this…
You need to know when to stay long.
You need to know when to stay short.
And you need to know when to stay out.
Labels: Forex, Investment Quote, Stock Trading System
24 October 2017
Holy Grail - Perfect Chart Patterns and Trading Strategy
A perfect chart pattern has following characteristics,
1. Daily chart SMA200 trending up steadily. It represents the cost of the long term investors with a view of 1 year is rising steadily, which indicates the market direction is up since the direction of the market is determined by the long term investor such as institutions, retirement funds, sovereignty funds etc..
2. Weekly chart SMA200 (i.e., daily chart SMA1000 or SMA999) trending up steadily. It represents the cost of the super long term investors with a view of 4 years is rising steadily, which indicates the long term market direction is up since the long term direction of the market is determined by the long term investor.
3. Daily chart SMA200 has crossed and is above Weekly chart SMA200
4. A beautiful double bottoms pattern has developed above and near the daily chart SMA200
Trading Strategy
1. Entry method: Buy stop limit at the moment when neckline of the double bottoms pattern is broken upwards
2. Position sizing: Number of shares to buy = Bearable loss or risk per trade / (Entry price - Stop loss price)
3. Stop loss: Initial stop loss price = Lowest point of the double bottoms pattern X 0.97
Bearable loss or risk per trade = Trading capital X 0.1% to 0.5% or maximum 1.0% purely depending on individual risk appetite.
Trade heavily (risk = 1.0%) when such a perfect setup appears since it is rare.
I managed to capture CityDev only a few days ago in the following examples. You would not have to work for one month should you capture any of them.
1. Daily chart SMA200 trending up steadily. It represents the cost of the long term investors with a view of 1 year is rising steadily, which indicates the market direction is up since the direction of the market is determined by the long term investor such as institutions, retirement funds, sovereignty funds etc..
2. Weekly chart SMA200 (i.e., daily chart SMA1000 or SMA999) trending up steadily. It represents the cost of the super long term investors with a view of 4 years is rising steadily, which indicates the long term market direction is up since the long term direction of the market is determined by the long term investor.
3. Daily chart SMA200 has crossed and is above Weekly chart SMA200
4. A beautiful double bottoms pattern has developed above and near the daily chart SMA200
Trading Strategy
1. Entry method: Buy stop limit at the moment when neckline of the double bottoms pattern is broken upwards
2. Position sizing: Number of shares to buy = Bearable loss or risk per trade / (Entry price - Stop loss price)
3. Stop loss: Initial stop loss price = Lowest point of the double bottoms pattern X 0.97
Bearable loss or risk per trade = Trading capital X 0.1% to 0.5% or maximum 1.0% purely depending on individual risk appetite.
Trade heavily (risk = 1.0%) when such a perfect setup appears since it is rare.
I managed to capture CityDev only a few days ago in the following examples. You would not have to work for one month should you capture any of them.
Labels: Stock Trading System
06 October 2017
世界九大顶尖交易员观点
From Wenxue City Snipertrader
一、马蒂---舒华兹
简介：
冠军交易员，起初交易的十年，经常亏损，长期处于濒临破产的边缘，1979年之后成为一个顶尖的交易员。他一共参加过10次的全美投资大赛中的四个月期交易竞赛项目，获得9次冠军，平均投资回报率为210%，他赚到的钱几乎是其他参赛者的总和。
他认为最重要的交易原则就是资金管理。
观点1：
假如我错了，我得赶紧脱身，有道是留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。我必须保持实力，卷土重来。
观点2：
无论你何时遭受挫折，心中都会很难受，大部分交易员在遭受重大亏损时，总希望立即扳回来，因此越做越大，想一举挽回劣势，可是，一旦你这么做，就等于注定你要失败。在我遭受那次打击之后，我会立即减量经营，我当时所做的事，并不是在于赚多少钱来弥补亏损，而是在于重拾自己对交易的信心。
观点3：
任何人在从事交易时，都会经历一段持续获利的大好光景，例如我能连续获利12天，可是最后我一定会感到很疲累，因此我会在连续盈利或者重大获利之后立即减量经营。遭逢亏损的原因通常都是获利了结之后却不收手。
二．麦可---马可斯
简介：
天才交易员，1969年至1973年期间，常常把自己的钱亏得精光，处于借钱，赔光，借钱，赔光的公式中。1973年之后，开始走向成功的交易道路。1974年8月进入商品公司担任交易员，公司给予3万美元作为交易基金，大约十年后，这笔基金收益率约为二千五百倍，扩大为8000万美元。
他认为，交易最为重要的一项就是有耐性。
观点1：
我之所以会不断的亏钱并亏个精光，最主要的原因就是耐性不够，以致忽略交易原则，无法等到大势明朗，就贸然进场。
观点2：
今天符合获利原则的交易机会已经越来越少，因此你必须耐心的等待，每当市场走势与我的预测完全相反时，我会说：原本希望趁这波行情大赚一笔，居然市场走势不如预期，我干脆退出。
观点3：
你必须坚持手中的好牌，减少手中的坏牌，假如你不能坚持手中的好牌，又如何弥补坏牌所造成的损失？有许多相当不错的交易员，最后是把赚到的钱全数吐了出来，这是因为他们在赔钱时都不愿意停止交易，我在赔钱时我会对自己说：你不能再继续交易了，等待更明朗的行情吧。而当你拿到好牌的时候，则要有耐性的拿着，否则你一定无法弥补拿到坏牌所输掉的钱。
三、汤姆包得文
也认为交易中最为重要的就是耐性。他的观点是：
观点1：
很多交易员最常犯的错误就是次数太频繁。他们不会慎选适当的交易时机。当他们看到市场波动时，就想进场交易，这无异是强迫自己从事交易，而不是居于主动的地位耐心的等待交易良机。
观点2：
我们之所以能够获利，是因为我们在进场之前已经耐心的做了很多工作。很多人一旦获利之后，他们就会对交易掉以轻心，操作就开始频繁起来，接下来的几笔亏损会让他们无法应付以致导致庞大的亏损，甚至老本都亏回去。
四、布鲁斯---柯凡纳
简介：
纵横全球的外汇交易员。1978年至1988年，平均年回报率为87%，就是说当初你投资2000美元到他的基金，10年时间你的投资可以成长到200万美元。
他认为，交易最重要的就是风险控制。
观点1：
每当我进场时，总会预先设定停损点，这是唯一可以让我安心睡觉的办法。我总是避免把停损点设在市场行情可能轻易到达的价位，如果你分析正确，市场行情就绝不可能回档到停损价位。如果行情到达停损点，那么就表示这笔交易犯了错误。
观点2：
我最糟糕的一笔交易就是源于冲动。根据我的交易经验，从事交易最具有破坏力的错误，就是过分冲动，任何人制定交易都应该根据既定的交易信号进行，千万不要因为一时冲动而仓促改变交易策略。因此，不要冲动是风险控制的第一码事。
观点3：
我要强调，从事交易必须学会控制风险，你得做最坏的打算，因此，你必须小量经营，把每笔交易的亏损控制在资金的1%---2%之间。
五、理查---丹尼斯
简介：
理查---丹尼斯，商品交易的传奇人物。于1960年代末期进入商品交易行业，刚开始几年，经常把钱亏光。1970年之后，开始走向成功的道路，20年中，他把400美元变成一笔约为2亿美元的财富。
他认为交易最重要的就是平静。
观点1：
我从事交易已经有20多年，若非早学会了保持平静，我早就会被交易生涯中的大起大落给逼疯了。交易员就像拳手，市场随时都会给你施以一番痛击，你必须保持平静。当你亏损时，说明情况对你不利，别急，慢慢来，你必须把亏损降到最低，尽可能保护自己的资本，当你遭受重大损失时，你的情绪必定大受影响，你必须减量经营，隔一段时间再考虑下一笔交易。
观点2：
无论我是大亏还是大赚，我都会保持心里平静，每天坚持分析每一笔交易，看看有没有违规的情况发生，对于好的交易，好好思考为什么会成功，对于不好的交易要自我检讨，找出症结所在。因此，你要想一直都做得很好，必须在平常就非常在意自己的每一笔交易。
观点3：
几乎人人都可以列出我们所传授的80%的交易规则，可是他们无法叫人在市场不稳定的时候如何坚定这些规则，因此，平静的执行交易规则，应该可以让你把握到历史以外的大部分行情。
六、马可---威斯坦
简介：
马可---威斯坦，全胜交易员。曾经做过房地产中介，后来才做交易员，刚刚开始4年多的时间，亏钱简直就像丢钱，一次次的亏光，一次次的重新存钱。经过4年多时间的失败经历，开始走向成功的道路，一直保持极高比例的获利率，一个知情人士透露，曾经观看了他的100笔交易记录，其中只有几笔是亏损的。
他认为交易最重要的就是时刻保持谨慎。
观点1：
我为什么能够达到如此高比例的获利率？那是因为我害怕市场的诡谲多变，我发现成功的交易员通常都是畏惧市场的人，市场交易的恐惧心理，让我必须慎选进场时机。大部分人都不会等到市况明朗后才进场，他们总是在黑夜中进入森林，而我总是等到天亮才进去。我不会在行情发动之前去预测其变动的方向，我总是让市场变动来告诉我行情变动的方向。选择与等待万无一失的机会才发动进攻，否则我只有放弃，这是我最重要的交易原则。
观点2：
不要被获利的喜悦冲昏了头脑，要知道，天下最难的是就是如何持续获利，一旦赚到钱，你就会希望继续赚到更多的钱，这样一来，你就会忘记风险，你就不会怀疑自己既定交易原则的正确性，这就是导致自我毁灭的原因，因此，你必须时刻保持谨慎，亏钱了要十分谨慎，赚钱了要更加谨慎。
观点3：
交易策略要具有弹性，以反应市场的变化，才能显示出你高度谨慎的作战方式。大部分交易员最常犯的错误，就是交易策略总是一成不变，他们常常会说：“他妈的，怎么市场与我所想的完全不同？”为什么要相同呢？生活不总是充满未知数吗？当你的重要停损点被行情破掉的时候，极大可能是遇到震荡行情了或者转变趋势了，这时候你又怎么能继续这个趋势的操作呢？因此，这时你必须非常谨慎等待事情变得更加明朗，而不是贸然的继续操作。
七、保罗---都德---琼斯
简介：
具有攻击性的操作艺术。1984年9月，琼斯以150万元美元创立了都德期货基金，到了1988年10月，该基金已经成长到3亿3000万美元。他具有双重的个性，在社交场合，相当随和，是一位平易近人，谦谦有礼的绅士，在操盘时，下达命令仿佛是一位凶悍残暴的长官。
他认为，交易最为重要的就是自我约束和资金管理。
观点1：
在我一次性的亏了自己70%的资金时，我就决定要学会自我约束和资金管理。在操作的时候，我会尽量的放松心情，假如持有部位对我不利，我就出场，对我有利，我就持长。我现在的心理是如何减少亏损，而不是如何多赚钱。因此，当你操盘情况不佳时，减量经营或者停止经营，当操盘进入佳境时，增量经营，千万不要在你无法控制的情况下，贸然进场交易。
观点2：
每当我做一笔交易时，我总会提心吊胆，因为我知道干这一行，成功来得快，去得也快，每次遭受打击，总是在我洋洋自得的时候。任何事物毁坏的速度远大于当初建造其所花的时间，有些事物要花十年时间才能建造起来，然而一天就可以将其完全毁灭。因此，无论什么时候，我都会严格的自我约束。
观点3：
我最大的缺点就是过于乐观，因此我现在操作时从没有想过每笔交易能为我赚多少钱，而是无时无刻想着可能遭受的亏损，时刻注意保护自己已经拥有的东西。
八、艾迪---塞柯塔
简介：
天才交易员，塞柯塔利用电脑交易系统为客户和自己操作，在1972年至1988年期间，所获得的投资回报率几乎让人难以置信，例如他的一位客户投资了5000美元，到了1988年，资金增长为1250万美元。
他认为交易最重要的就是肯于改变自己，否则你永远无法成功。
观点1：
我认为交易与心理其实是一体的两面。金融市场是一个试探个人心理障碍的好地方。发生在自己身上的事，必定是自己心态的反应。失败的交易员很难改头换面为一名成功的交易员，因为他们根本不会想去改变自己。每位输家的内心深处其实都蕴藏着求输的潜意识，因此，即使获得成功，也会不自觉的破坏胜利的果实。每个人都能在市场上如愿以偿。
观点2：
交易的时候要根据人性的缺陷主动去做好自己，例如我在操作手气不顺的时候，面对亏损，我会不断的减量经营，甚至停止操作，而不是情绪化增加交易活得，希望挽回颓势，因为这样一定会损失惨重，简直是自作孽，不可活。
观点3：
绝大多数人交易的时候都有一种好赌的心理，喜欢重仓位杀进杀出。因此，你一定要在这方面改变自己，古往今来，重仓操作的家伙没有一个是不完蛋的，你必须把自己的每一笔亏损控制在5%以内，当然，2%以内是最好的。根据图表交易犹如冲浪，你不必知道波浪起落的原因，你只要能感觉到波浪涌起的节奏以及掌握冲浪的时机，就可以成为一个冲浪高手。
九、赖瑞---海特
简介：
海特成立了明德投资管理公司，根据统计，该公司的年投资回报率总是介于13%至60%之间，1981年4月份时，该公司的资金只有200万美元，而到达2005年，已经成长到8亿美元。该公司最大的特色就是不在获取最大的投资回报率，而是透过严格的风险控制，维持投资回报率的持续稳定增长。
海特认为，交易最重要的就是遵循交易系统和风险控制。
观点1：
有些人在赔钱的时候会更改交易系统，而有的人根本不相信交易系统，怀疑交易系统发出的指令，以致经常凭借自己的喜好在市场出入，而我总是遵循交易系统，我从事交易不是为了刺激，而是为了求得胜利，这样的交易也许相当无聊，但却相当有效。当我和其他交易员聚会的时候，他们谈论自己惊心动魄的交易经验时，我总是沉默不语，因为对我而言，每笔交易都一样。
观点2：
明德公司的第一条交易原则就是绝对跟着趋势走，而且要完全的信任交易系统，任何人都不得擅自违反交易系统发出的指令。正因为如此，公司从来就没有失败的交易。其实交易分为四种：成功的交易，失败的交易，赚钱的交易，赔钱的交易。赔钱的交易并不一定是失败的交易，而违背或者不遵从系统交易指令的交易就一定是失败的交易。
观点3：
明德公司的第二条交易原则就是把风险控制到最低，每一笔交易的亏损一定要控制在1%左右。这是一件非常重要的事。你必须了解，你每笔交易的风险越高，就越难控制交易的成绩。只要你能够控制风险，追随市场大势，就一定会赚钱。通常交易系统获利率在40%至50%就是不错的，但是在市场不好的时候，即使是连续失败，导致的损失最多不会超过10%，这就是控制风险的好处。
一、马蒂---舒华兹
简介：
冠军交易员，起初交易的十年，经常亏损，长期处于濒临破产的边缘，1979年之后成为一个顶尖的交易员。他一共参加过10次的全美投资大赛中的四个月期交易竞赛项目，获得9次冠军，平均投资回报率为210%，他赚到的钱几乎是其他参赛者的总和。
他认为最重要的交易原则就是资金管理。
观点1：
假如我错了，我得赶紧脱身，有道是留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。我必须保持实力，卷土重来。
观点2：
无论你何时遭受挫折，心中都会很难受，大部分交易员在遭受重大亏损时，总希望立即扳回来，因此越做越大，想一举挽回劣势，可是，一旦你这么做，就等于注定你要失败。在我遭受那次打击之后，我会立即减量经营，我当时所做的事，并不是在于赚多少钱来弥补亏损，而是在于重拾自己对交易的信心。
观点3：
任何人在从事交易时，都会经历一段持续获利的大好光景，例如我能连续获利12天，可是最后我一定会感到很疲累，因此我会在连续盈利或者重大获利之后立即减量经营。遭逢亏损的原因通常都是获利了结之后却不收手。
二．麦可---马可斯
简介：
天才交易员，1969年至1973年期间，常常把自己的钱亏得精光，处于借钱，赔光，借钱，赔光的公式中。1973年之后，开始走向成功的交易道路。1974年8月进入商品公司担任交易员，公司给予3万美元作为交易基金，大约十年后，这笔基金收益率约为二千五百倍，扩大为8000万美元。
他认为，交易最为重要的一项就是有耐性。
观点1：
我之所以会不断的亏钱并亏个精光，最主要的原因就是耐性不够，以致忽略交易原则，无法等到大势明朗，就贸然进场。
观点2：
今天符合获利原则的交易机会已经越来越少，因此你必须耐心的等待，每当市场走势与我的预测完全相反时，我会说：原本希望趁这波行情大赚一笔，居然市场走势不如预期，我干脆退出。
观点3：
你必须坚持手中的好牌，减少手中的坏牌，假如你不能坚持手中的好牌，又如何弥补坏牌所造成的损失？有许多相当不错的交易员，最后是把赚到的钱全数吐了出来，这是因为他们在赔钱时都不愿意停止交易，我在赔钱时我会对自己说：你不能再继续交易了，等待更明朗的行情吧。而当你拿到好牌的时候，则要有耐性的拿着，否则你一定无法弥补拿到坏牌所输掉的钱。
三、汤姆包得文
也认为交易中最为重要的就是耐性。他的观点是：
观点1：
很多交易员最常犯的错误就是次数太频繁。他们不会慎选适当的交易时机。当他们看到市场波动时，就想进场交易，这无异是强迫自己从事交易，而不是居于主动的地位耐心的等待交易良机。
观点2：
我们之所以能够获利，是因为我们在进场之前已经耐心的做了很多工作。很多人一旦获利之后，他们就会对交易掉以轻心，操作就开始频繁起来，接下来的几笔亏损会让他们无法应付以致导致庞大的亏损，甚至老本都亏回去。
四、布鲁斯---柯凡纳
简介：
纵横全球的外汇交易员。1978年至1988年，平均年回报率为87%，就是说当初你投资2000美元到他的基金，10年时间你的投资可以成长到200万美元。
他认为，交易最重要的就是风险控制。
观点1：
每当我进场时，总会预先设定停损点，这是唯一可以让我安心睡觉的办法。我总是避免把停损点设在市场行情可能轻易到达的价位，如果你分析正确，市场行情就绝不可能回档到停损价位。如果行情到达停损点，那么就表示这笔交易犯了错误。
观点2：
我最糟糕的一笔交易就是源于冲动。根据我的交易经验，从事交易最具有破坏力的错误，就是过分冲动，任何人制定交易都应该根据既定的交易信号进行，千万不要因为一时冲动而仓促改变交易策略。因此，不要冲动是风险控制的第一码事。
观点3：
我要强调，从事交易必须学会控制风险，你得做最坏的打算，因此，你必须小量经营，把每笔交易的亏损控制在资金的1%---2%之间。
五、理查---丹尼斯
简介：
理查---丹尼斯，商品交易的传奇人物。于1960年代末期进入商品交易行业，刚开始几年，经常把钱亏光。1970年之后，开始走向成功的道路，20年中，他把400美元变成一笔约为2亿美元的财富。
他认为交易最重要的就是平静。
观点1：
我从事交易已经有20多年，若非早学会了保持平静，我早就会被交易生涯中的大起大落给逼疯了。交易员就像拳手，市场随时都会给你施以一番痛击，你必须保持平静。当你亏损时，说明情况对你不利，别急，慢慢来，你必须把亏损降到最低，尽可能保护自己的资本，当你遭受重大损失时，你的情绪必定大受影响，你必须减量经营，隔一段时间再考虑下一笔交易。
观点2：
无论我是大亏还是大赚，我都会保持心里平静，每天坚持分析每一笔交易，看看有没有违规的情况发生，对于好的交易，好好思考为什么会成功，对于不好的交易要自我检讨，找出症结所在。因此，你要想一直都做得很好，必须在平常就非常在意自己的每一笔交易。
观点3：
几乎人人都可以列出我们所传授的80%的交易规则，可是他们无法叫人在市场不稳定的时候如何坚定这些规则，因此，平静的执行交易规则，应该可以让你把握到历史以外的大部分行情。
六、马可---威斯坦
简介：
马可---威斯坦，全胜交易员。曾经做过房地产中介，后来才做交易员，刚刚开始4年多的时间，亏钱简直就像丢钱，一次次的亏光，一次次的重新存钱。经过4年多时间的失败经历，开始走向成功的道路，一直保持极高比例的获利率，一个知情人士透露，曾经观看了他的100笔交易记录，其中只有几笔是亏损的。
他认为交易最重要的就是时刻保持谨慎。
观点1：
我为什么能够达到如此高比例的获利率？那是因为我害怕市场的诡谲多变，我发现成功的交易员通常都是畏惧市场的人，市场交易的恐惧心理，让我必须慎选进场时机。大部分人都不会等到市况明朗后才进场，他们总是在黑夜中进入森林，而我总是等到天亮才进去。我不会在行情发动之前去预测其变动的方向，我总是让市场变动来告诉我行情变动的方向。选择与等待万无一失的机会才发动进攻，否则我只有放弃，这是我最重要的交易原则。
观点2：
不要被获利的喜悦冲昏了头脑，要知道，天下最难的是就是如何持续获利，一旦赚到钱，你就会希望继续赚到更多的钱，这样一来，你就会忘记风险，你就不会怀疑自己既定交易原则的正确性，这就是导致自我毁灭的原因，因此，你必须时刻保持谨慎，亏钱了要十分谨慎，赚钱了要更加谨慎。
观点3：
交易策略要具有弹性，以反应市场的变化，才能显示出你高度谨慎的作战方式。大部分交易员最常犯的错误，就是交易策略总是一成不变，他们常常会说：“他妈的，怎么市场与我所想的完全不同？”为什么要相同呢？生活不总是充满未知数吗？当你的重要停损点被行情破掉的时候，极大可能是遇到震荡行情了或者转变趋势了，这时候你又怎么能继续这个趋势的操作呢？因此，这时你必须非常谨慎等待事情变得更加明朗，而不是贸然的继续操作。
七、保罗---都德---琼斯
简介：
具有攻击性的操作艺术。1984年9月，琼斯以150万元美元创立了都德期货基金，到了1988年10月，该基金已经成长到3亿3000万美元。他具有双重的个性，在社交场合，相当随和，是一位平易近人，谦谦有礼的绅士，在操盘时，下达命令仿佛是一位凶悍残暴的长官。
他认为，交易最为重要的就是自我约束和资金管理。
观点1：
在我一次性的亏了自己70%的资金时，我就决定要学会自我约束和资金管理。在操作的时候，我会尽量的放松心情，假如持有部位对我不利，我就出场，对我有利，我就持长。我现在的心理是如何减少亏损，而不是如何多赚钱。因此，当你操盘情况不佳时，减量经营或者停止经营，当操盘进入佳境时，增量经营，千万不要在你无法控制的情况下，贸然进场交易。
观点2：
每当我做一笔交易时，我总会提心吊胆，因为我知道干这一行，成功来得快，去得也快，每次遭受打击，总是在我洋洋自得的时候。任何事物毁坏的速度远大于当初建造其所花的时间，有些事物要花十年时间才能建造起来，然而一天就可以将其完全毁灭。因此，无论什么时候，我都会严格的自我约束。
观点3：
我最大的缺点就是过于乐观，因此我现在操作时从没有想过每笔交易能为我赚多少钱，而是无时无刻想着可能遭受的亏损，时刻注意保护自己已经拥有的东西。
八、艾迪---塞柯塔
简介：
天才交易员，塞柯塔利用电脑交易系统为客户和自己操作，在1972年至1988年期间，所获得的投资回报率几乎让人难以置信，例如他的一位客户投资了5000美元，到了1988年，资金增长为1250万美元。
他认为交易最重要的就是肯于改变自己，否则你永远无法成功。
观点1：
我认为交易与心理其实是一体的两面。金融市场是一个试探个人心理障碍的好地方。发生在自己身上的事，必定是自己心态的反应。失败的交易员很难改头换面为一名成功的交易员，因为他们根本不会想去改变自己。每位输家的内心深处其实都蕴藏着求输的潜意识，因此，即使获得成功，也会不自觉的破坏胜利的果实。每个人都能在市场上如愿以偿。
观点2：
交易的时候要根据人性的缺陷主动去做好自己，例如我在操作手气不顺的时候，面对亏损，我会不断的减量经营，甚至停止操作，而不是情绪化增加交易活得，希望挽回颓势，因为这样一定会损失惨重，简直是自作孽，不可活。
观点3：
绝大多数人交易的时候都有一种好赌的心理，喜欢重仓位杀进杀出。因此，你一定要在这方面改变自己，古往今来，重仓操作的家伙没有一个是不完蛋的，你必须把自己的每一笔亏损控制在5%以内，当然，2%以内是最好的。根据图表交易犹如冲浪，你不必知道波浪起落的原因，你只要能感觉到波浪涌起的节奏以及掌握冲浪的时机，就可以成为一个冲浪高手。
九、赖瑞---海特
简介：
海特成立了明德投资管理公司，根据统计，该公司的年投资回报率总是介于13%至60%之间，1981年4月份时，该公司的资金只有200万美元，而到达2005年，已经成长到8亿美元。该公司最大的特色就是不在获取最大的投资回报率，而是透过严格的风险控制，维持投资回报率的持续稳定增长。
海特认为，交易最重要的就是遵循交易系统和风险控制。
观点1：
有些人在赔钱的时候会更改交易系统，而有的人根本不相信交易系统，怀疑交易系统发出的指令，以致经常凭借自己的喜好在市场出入，而我总是遵循交易系统，我从事交易不是为了刺激，而是为了求得胜利，这样的交易也许相当无聊，但却相当有效。当我和其他交易员聚会的时候，他们谈论自己惊心动魄的交易经验时，我总是沉默不语，因为对我而言，每笔交易都一样。
观点2：
明德公司的第一条交易原则就是绝对跟着趋势走，而且要完全的信任交易系统，任何人都不得擅自违反交易系统发出的指令。正因为如此，公司从来就没有失败的交易。其实交易分为四种：成功的交易，失败的交易，赚钱的交易，赔钱的交易。赔钱的交易并不一定是失败的交易，而违背或者不遵从系统交易指令的交易就一定是失败的交易。
观点3：
明德公司的第二条交易原则就是把风险控制到最低，每一笔交易的亏损一定要控制在1%左右。这是一件非常重要的事。你必须了解，你每笔交易的风险越高，就越难控制交易的成绩。只要你能够控制风险，追随市场大势，就一定会赚钱。通常交易系统获利率在40%至50%就是不错的，但是在市场不好的时候，即使是连续失败，导致的损失最多不会超过10%，这就是控制风险的好处。
Labels: Stock Trading System
23 September 2017
The top stock-market strategy of the past 50 years
(Note: This is what TopTrader wants to do! Apply a similar strategy to Singapore stocks, assigning a score for each fundamental parameter (can be more than those mentioned in the article below such as debt level, interest coverage etc.) for each stock from 1 to 750, then look at the top 50 companies based on the combined score of all parameters. Rebalance the portfolio once every 6 months.)
By JAMES O’SHAUGHNESSY and PATRICK O'SHAUGHNESSY
Sadly, investors tend to have terrible timing. One study by John Bogle, the founder of mutual-fund firm Vanguard Group, found that for the 20 years ending 2003, the S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.06% returned 13% per year, while the average mutual fund returned 10.3% and the average investor achieved just a 7.9% annualized return. And that was before all of the emotional selling caused by the crash of 2008!
Another tragic example of mistimed asset allocation comes from the American Association of Individual Investors. AAII has surveyed its members since 1988, asking them what their current allocation is to stocks, bonds, and cash. The highest weight to cash — and lowest weight to equities — in the history of the survey was in March 2009, right at the bottom of the worst bear market since the 1930s. When was the highest weight to equities? January 2000, near the absolute top of the stock market’s 20 year bull run.
Clearly, panic and greed lead people to do the wrong thing at the wrong time — and to do so consistently.
Trending Value: Exceptional long-term performance
We believe the answer to this problem is re-framing each individual’s investing goals, time horizons, and strategies. Find the best, time-tested investment strategies and stick to them for long periods and through inevitable stretches of underperformance. With discipline, beating the market and earning strong returns over time is achievable.
In the fourth edition of “What Works on Wall Street,” we have identified what we believe to be the most successful investment strategies over very long periods. Many strategies in this book were tested back to 1927, which allowed us to evaluate them during recessions, runaway bull markets, and the Great Depression.
With this new research, we have refined the way that we measure characteristics in a way that boosts returns. We found that an updated combination of value and momentum strategies — a tactic we call “Trending Value” — is the best performing strategy since 1963.
Its annualized return of 20.58% through Sept. 30 crushes the All Stocks benchmark (an equally weighted benchmark of stocks with an inflation adjusted market cap great than $200 million), which has a return of 10.71%. Plus, the Trending Value approach achieves its return with a volatility of 17.69%, lower than the benchmark’s 18.26%.
2012 Outlook: Meeting in the Middle
The strategy makes use of one of the main innovations from the book: the use of a composite value factor. In the original publication, we identified price-to-sales as the most effective value factor. In this latest edition of the book, we have learned that a composite that combines several different value factors delivers stronger returns and more consistency than any individual factor.
By spreading our bets and ensuring that a stock is cheap in a variety of ways, we believe we can identify better stocks. One version of the composite value factor combines the following measures of value:
• Price-to-Sales
• Price-to-Earnings
• Price-to-Book
• Price-to-Cash Flow
• EBITDA/Enterprise Value
• Shareholder yield (dividend yield + rate of share repurchases)
Each stock in the universe gets a score of 1 to 100 for each of these factors. The final value score is an average of these scores. The Trending Value portfolio narrows the investable universe to the 10% of stocks with the best score based on the value composite, and then selects a concentrated portfolio of 25 stocks based on trailing six-month momentum.
This simple combination builds a portfolio of extremely cheap stocks that are on the mend. The combination of value and momentum works better than either of these factors on its own.
Examples of stocks currently passing this strategy are Advance America Cash Advance Centers Inc. AE.A, +0.00% , Tesoro Corp. TSO, +0.00% , and Smithfield Foods Inc. SFD, -9.37%
Of course, we certainly expect there to be stocks in our strategies that underperform, and these three stocks may not perform well in the coming year. But we also know that a diversified portfolio of stocks with the characteristics these stocks currently posses has fared extremely well over time. By focusing on the long term, and taking advantage of market volatility rather than being scared off by it, investors can beat the market in the long term and achieve their investing goals.
James O’Shaughnessy is Chairman and CEO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, and author of “What Works on Wall Street.” Patrick O’Shaughnessy is a Research Analyst at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management.
By JAMES O’SHAUGHNESSY and PATRICK O'SHAUGHNESSY
Sadly, investors tend to have terrible timing. One study by John Bogle, the founder of mutual-fund firm Vanguard Group, found that for the 20 years ending 2003, the S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.06% returned 13% per year, while the average mutual fund returned 10.3% and the average investor achieved just a 7.9% annualized return. And that was before all of the emotional selling caused by the crash of 2008!
Another tragic example of mistimed asset allocation comes from the American Association of Individual Investors. AAII has surveyed its members since 1988, asking them what their current allocation is to stocks, bonds, and cash. The highest weight to cash — and lowest weight to equities — in the history of the survey was in March 2009, right at the bottom of the worst bear market since the 1930s. When was the highest weight to equities? January 2000, near the absolute top of the stock market’s 20 year bull run.
Clearly, panic and greed lead people to do the wrong thing at the wrong time — and to do so consistently.
Trending Value: Exceptional long-term performance
We believe the answer to this problem is re-framing each individual’s investing goals, time horizons, and strategies. Find the best, time-tested investment strategies and stick to them for long periods and through inevitable stretches of underperformance. With discipline, beating the market and earning strong returns over time is achievable.
In the fourth edition of “What Works on Wall Street,” we have identified what we believe to be the most successful investment strategies over very long periods. Many strategies in this book were tested back to 1927, which allowed us to evaluate them during recessions, runaway bull markets, and the Great Depression.
With this new research, we have refined the way that we measure characteristics in a way that boosts returns. We found that an updated combination of value and momentum strategies — a tactic we call “Trending Value” — is the best performing strategy since 1963.
Its annualized return of 20.58% through Sept. 30 crushes the All Stocks benchmark (an equally weighted benchmark of stocks with an inflation adjusted market cap great than $200 million), which has a return of 10.71%. Plus, the Trending Value approach achieves its return with a volatility of 17.69%, lower than the benchmark’s 18.26%.
2012 Outlook: Meeting in the Middle
The strategy makes use of one of the main innovations from the book: the use of a composite value factor. In the original publication, we identified price-to-sales as the most effective value factor. In this latest edition of the book, we have learned that a composite that combines several different value factors delivers stronger returns and more consistency than any individual factor.
By spreading our bets and ensuring that a stock is cheap in a variety of ways, we believe we can identify better stocks. One version of the composite value factor combines the following measures of value:
• Price-to-Sales
• Price-to-Earnings
• Price-to-Book
• Price-to-Cash Flow
• EBITDA/Enterprise Value
• Shareholder yield (dividend yield + rate of share repurchases)
Each stock in the universe gets a score of 1 to 100 for each of these factors. The final value score is an average of these scores. The Trending Value portfolio narrows the investable universe to the 10% of stocks with the best score based on the value composite, and then selects a concentrated portfolio of 25 stocks based on trailing six-month momentum.
This simple combination builds a portfolio of extremely cheap stocks that are on the mend. The combination of value and momentum works better than either of these factors on its own.
Examples of stocks currently passing this strategy are Advance America Cash Advance Centers Inc. AE.A, +0.00% , Tesoro Corp. TSO, +0.00% , and Smithfield Foods Inc. SFD, -9.37%
Of course, we certainly expect there to be stocks in our strategies that underperform, and these three stocks may not perform well in the coming year. But we also know that a diversified portfolio of stocks with the characteristics these stocks currently posses has fared extremely well over time. By focusing on the long term, and taking advantage of market volatility rather than being scared off by it, investors can beat the market in the long term and achieve their investing goals.
James O’Shaughnessy is Chairman and CEO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, and author of “What Works on Wall Street.” Patrick O’Shaughnessy is a Research Analyst at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management.
Labels: Stock Trading System
20 August 2017
Stock Trading Strategy 15 Aug 2017
Long if all following conditions are met,
Chart pattern is evidently (10% above neckline) broken above its neckline with increasing volumes and
Price retraces back to neckline with declining volumes and
Price retraces back to SMA50 with declining volumes and
RSI 14 <= 30 Buy stop limit if price breaks above previous day high by 1 bid. Stop Loss Level = Chart Pattern Low X 0.97 Short with CFD if all following conditions are met,
Chart pattern is evidently (10% below neckline) broken below its neckline with increasing volumes and
Price retraces back to neckline with declining volumes and
Price retraces back to SMA50 with declining volumes and
RSI 14 >= 70
Sell stop limit if price breaks below previous day low by 1 bid.
Stop Loss Level = Chart Pattern High X 1.03
Chart pattern is evidently (10% above neckline) broken above its neckline with increasing volumes and
Price retraces back to neckline with declining volumes and
Price retraces back to SMA50 with declining volumes and
RSI 14 <= 30 Buy stop limit if price breaks above previous day high by 1 bid. Stop Loss Level = Chart Pattern Low X 0.97 Short with CFD if all following conditions are met,
Chart pattern is evidently (10% below neckline) broken below its neckline with increasing volumes and
Price retraces back to neckline with declining volumes and
Price retraces back to SMA50 with declining volumes and
RSI 14 >= 70
Sell stop limit if price breaks below previous day low by 1 bid.
Stop Loss Level = Chart Pattern High X 1.03
Labels: Stock Trading System
12 July 2017
交易者的功课
来源: 至远
交易系统
交易系统是交易者的战略，具体回答下面的问题：
对交易结果的期望： 每年回报
动用资金占总资金多少？ 一般由对大盘的看法决定
每个仓位占总资金多少？风险控制
怎么选股？基本面，技术面，板块因素
怎么进入？模式一般有突破或回调等，是否考虑大盘影响？
怎么退出？止损或获利
每天，每周，每月，每年需要做的事: 复盘，总结上一时期交易
交易计划
交易计划是交易系统具体到将要操作的个股上的战役方针
大盘，板块情况，个股基本面，股性特征，将要发生的事件（财报等）
可能的入点，止损，目标或跟踪止损
操作计划
根据交易计划对第二天的战斗指南
个股当天的表现是否符合预计，第二天可能发生的情况和应对。不外是： 建仓，加，减，出几种
交易总结
每个交易结束，每一段时间的回顾总结
是否按照计划操作？系统是否需要调整？
Labels: Stock Trading System
07 May 2017
Trading Strategy
Look at big picture: direction of SMA200;
SMA200 trending upwards consistently and stably, long when RSI14 <= 30; SMA200 trending downwards consistently and stably, short with CFD when RSI14 >= 70
SMA200 trending upwards consistently and stably, long when RSI14 <= 30; SMA200 trending downwards consistently and stably, short with CFD when RSI14 >= 70
Labels: Stock Trading System
14 January 2017
Warren Buffet uses these five investment criteria
It is well known that Warren Buffet uses these five investment criteria:
Free cash flow net income after taxes, plus depreciation and amortization, less capital expenditures) of at least $250 million.
Net profit margin of 15% or more.
Return on equity > of at least 15% for each of the past three years and the most recent quarter.
A dollar's worth of retained earnings creating at least a dollar's worth of shareholder value over the past five years.
Ample liquidity. Only stocks with a market capitalization of at least $500 million are included.
Free cash flow net income after taxes, plus depreciation and amortization, less capital expenditures) of at least $250 million.
Net profit margin of 15% or more.
Return on equity > of at least 15% for each of the past three years and the most recent quarter.
A dollar's worth of retained earnings creating at least a dollar's worth of shareholder value over the past five years.
Ample liquidity. Only stocks with a market capitalization of at least $500 million are included.
Labels: Stock Trading System, Warren Buffett
02 January 2016
17年老股民一买就涨的秘密
08 July 2015
How To Be Right When Investing - Buy Good Companies at Bad Times
David Kuo
Dear Foolish reader,
Tucked away in the heart of Singapore’s Chinatown is a chef who, it is reckoned by many, makes some of the best soya-sauce chickens in town.
I had a feeling I was going to be in for a special treat, when I eyed the long queue of customers, who were patiently waiting in line for their turn to be served.
Of course, long queues do not always equate to good fare.
But in this case, there was something a bit different. The customers were evidently regulars, judging by the cordial rapport between chef and patrons.
All gone
As luck would have it, though, the racks were depleted by the time it was my turn to be served. There was not even a giblet in sight.
So, I made another attempt the following week. But, again, luck was not on my side - there was nothing left the second time around, too.
Thankfully, it was third time lucky. I finally got what I wanted. And it was clear from the very first mouthful of the golden-brown chicken as to why diners are prepared to wait, uncomplainingly, in line.
Waiting for the right stock to come along is a bit like waiting for that first taste of the succulent soya sauce-infused chicken. In other words, we should never feel that we have to settle for substitutes, if there is nothing in the market worth buying.
Be right
We are not paid to be busy - we are paid to be right.
Warren Buffett once said: “You do things when the opportunities come along”.
He added: “I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a thing.”
All too often, though, people buy stocks for all the wrong reasons.
They buy for reasons that are not based on fundamentals, which invariably end in selling for reasons that are not based on fundamentals. They are the reason for the erratic price swings, which are, quite often, unrelated to what is actually happening to the underlying businesses.
But as long as we understand why price swings happen, then we can capitalise on it.
Greed, fear and folly
Investing should never be about chasing fads. Nor should it simply be because prices are rising, as many Shanghai and Shenzhen investors have recently discovered.
Warren Buffett once pointed out: “The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.”
Investing should be about trying to estimate the yield on an asset over the lifetime of the asset. That is how we make money from shares.
Speculation, on the other hand, is predicting what the market might do next, which is nigh on impossible. That is how we lose money from shares.
One-time events
So focus on picking good stocks at good times and stay with them as long as they remain good companies.
The Singapore market has many examples of companies that have delivered solid returns for investors over the long term. They include in no particular order of “goodness” Keppel Corporation, Dairy Farm and Jardine Cycle & Carriage.
They might be unloved right now as a result of unusual circumstances.
But excellent opportunities happen when superior businesses are hit by one-time event that depress the stock price in relation to their intrinsic values.
Be sure to follow us on Facebook for the latest in Foolish investing.
'Til next time ...
Dear Foolish reader,
Tucked away in the heart of Singapore’s Chinatown is a chef who, it is reckoned by many, makes some of the best soya-sauce chickens in town.
I had a feeling I was going to be in for a special treat, when I eyed the long queue of customers, who were patiently waiting in line for their turn to be served.
Of course, long queues do not always equate to good fare.
But in this case, there was something a bit different. The customers were evidently regulars, judging by the cordial rapport between chef and patrons.
All gone
As luck would have it, though, the racks were depleted by the time it was my turn to be served. There was not even a giblet in sight.
So, I made another attempt the following week. But, again, luck was not on my side - there was nothing left the second time around, too.
Thankfully, it was third time lucky. I finally got what I wanted. And it was clear from the very first mouthful of the golden-brown chicken as to why diners are prepared to wait, uncomplainingly, in line.
Waiting for the right stock to come along is a bit like waiting for that first taste of the succulent soya sauce-infused chicken. In other words, we should never feel that we have to settle for substitutes, if there is nothing in the market worth buying.
Be right
We are not paid to be busy - we are paid to be right.
Warren Buffett once said: “You do things when the opportunities come along”.
He added: “I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a thing.”
All too often, though, people buy stocks for all the wrong reasons.
They buy for reasons that are not based on fundamentals, which invariably end in selling for reasons that are not based on fundamentals. They are the reason for the erratic price swings, which are, quite often, unrelated to what is actually happening to the underlying businesses.
But as long as we understand why price swings happen, then we can capitalise on it.
Greed, fear and folly
Investing should never be about chasing fads. Nor should it simply be because prices are rising, as many Shanghai and Shenzhen investors have recently discovered.
Warren Buffett once pointed out: “The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.”
Investing should be about trying to estimate the yield on an asset over the lifetime of the asset. That is how we make money from shares.
Speculation, on the other hand, is predicting what the market might do next, which is nigh on impossible. That is how we lose money from shares.
One-time events
So focus on picking good stocks at good times and stay with them as long as they remain good companies.
The Singapore market has many examples of companies that have delivered solid returns for investors over the long term. They include in no particular order of “goodness” Keppel Corporation, Dairy Farm and Jardine Cycle & Carriage.
They might be unloved right now as a result of unusual circumstances.
But excellent opportunities happen when superior businesses are hit by one-time event that depress the stock price in relation to their intrinsic values.
Be sure to follow us on Facebook for the latest in Foolish investing.
'Til next time ...
Labels: Stock Trading System
22 April 2015
Trading Note
Recent trading was based on following simple rules - very effective. Take emotions out of trading.
Accumulate daily once PE is lower than 12 AND RSI 14 is less than 20 (can be less than 30 for good companies).
Start to take profit daily once RSI 14 is more than 70 (can be more than 80 for good companies).
Accumulate daily once PE is lower than 12 AND RSI 14 is less than 20 (can be less than 30 for good companies).
Start to take profit daily once RSI 14 is more than 70 (can be more than 80 for good companies).
Labels: Stock Trading System
30 March 2014
投机的九大要诀
真正的有钱人对金钱持非常严肃的态度，即便是拿来投机也要小心睿智，物尽其用。这里的投机并不是指非理性的赌博，而是指为了追求更高收益而采取的市场投资行为。卡西研究所资深分析师Louis James总结了富豪们投机成功的9个秘诀。
秘诀1：要有逆势交易的胆识
人人都知道要“低买高卖”，但说起来容易做起来难。要想真正做到这一点，你需要善于发现哪些产品或商品人们都想投资或觉得有必要投资，但由于周期性或一些其他的原因暂时没人愿意买。当大多数人觉得有必要买但却不愿买时，你的机会就来了。这就是逆势交易的窍门。这看起来很简单，好像人人都能做到。但事实上这种逆势交易的机会并不会自动出现，需要你自己去发现。大多数人都很难做出足够独立的思考和判断，并敢于做出大多数人认为很危险的决定。所以，上天只眷顾那些有胆识的人。
秘诀2：成功需要自律
当然，成功需要的不仅仅是勇气。如果你很勇敢但不够谨慎，你还是可能从悬崖上掉下去。所以，你必须对市场的波动做出预判，并将其转化成自己的优势。并严格遵循退出策略。一个成功的投资者需要很多策略，但最重要的要数买入策略和卖出策略，这样你就不会买得太多，或者卖得太少。
秘诀3：不要感情用事
一个成功的投资者需要遵循理性的指引，避免在恐惧或狂喜中偏离最初的计划。当你重仓投资股票下跌时，你会体验到非常真切的恐惧。这种恐慌情绪会让你在本应该加仓时选择卖出。同样的，当股票大涨，你和朋友击掌相庆时，你往往会产生继续全仓持有的冲动，而全然不顾该股票已经不再处于低估状态的事实。于是原本到手的收益就会不经意间从你指尖流走。
秘诀4：相信直觉
相信直觉和之前几条似乎自相矛盾，其实不然。并不是说要让感情压倒逻辑，而是说要倾听你的感觉，尤其当你见到你投资的公司的管理人员或阅读他们财报的时候。“人”（People）是Doug Casey股票估值8P理论最重要的环节，如果一个公司的CEO看起来像一个二手车推销员，那么你可以从中读出些什么。如果一份财报的新闻稿中省略了关键的数字或者看起来像是在锦上添花，那么你或许该当心。你在你所专注的行业积累的经验越多，你的直觉就越准确。如果报纸上将某只股票吹得天花乱坠，但你却没有听从内心的警告，投资该股票却亏了钱，没什么比这更加令人失望的了。
秘诀5：洞悉表象背后的利益
作为一个投资者，你要明白所有人都有他自己的角度。他们的利益可能会和你一致，但你不能认为这是理所当然。要时刻明白你是在和谁说话，他们的利益可能是什么，这很重要。即便面对信誉很好的人也该如此。如果你研究矿业，那么你该知道，一个矿从勘探、生产到回收，每一个环节都有许多问题要解决。但经纪商想赚佣金，会议组织者想给大家带来愉悦，黄金交易商想要增加产量，新闻记者想要糊口……多问问你自己，他们的钱从哪里来，他们的利益与你是否一致，与他们所报道的公司是否一致等。
秘诀6：趋势是你的朋友
没有人能预知未来，但你只要足够勤奋，就能够了解世界的趋势并预测出相应的结果。如果你洞悉了真实的趋势（至少有大量证据支持该趋势），它就会像罗盘或指南针一样为你指路，即便市场一片混乱、洪水滔天。了解你正在顺势交易非常重要，重要数据的支持也能增加你的勇气。记住，价格可能会波动，但价格并不意味着价值。如果你对趋势的判断是正确的，它将成为你的朋友。而且，选择正确的趋势方向，比选择正确的入场时间要容易得多。
秘诀7：用你输得起的钱来投机
这和前面几条在逻辑上是一致的。如果你把家里买房或孩子读书的钱拿去冒险，你几乎不可能保持冷静和自律。正如Doug所说：用10%的资产去冲击100%的回报，要远好于用100%的资产冲击10%的收益。
秘诀8：克服市场的随机性
考虑到市场投机存在内在风险，你应该尽量克服市场的随机性。如果你做不到这一点，还是不要玩了。以下几种方法可以达到这一点：投注拥有良好业务记录的公司，当市场将公司调整为卖出状态时买入；做详细的尽职调查（虽然大多数投资者都不堪其扰），或委托你信任的人替你来做。
秘诀9：你不能吻遍所有女孩
这是Doug的名言之一，虽然道理很浅显，但却是许多粗心的投机者最容易犯的错误。当你看到了一个梦幻般的故事或一只大涨的股票，却与它失之交臂，你会心有不甘。但如果你斗胆重仓跟进，那么你之前的所有收益可能会全部被抹平。你不能吻遍所有女孩，如果你试着这么做，就会陷入麻烦。幸运的是，机会在市场里有的是，如果错过了也不必太惋惜。耐心等待，你总能找到姑娘跳下一支舞。（文章作者为卡西研究所分析师Louis James，卡西研究所由传奇投资者道格·卡西（Doug Casey）创办）
Labels: Stock Trading System
26 February 2014
How to Invest
Here is good article on how to invest. Used by a top trader....
Q: what is the appropriate strategy for retail investors?
A: As a general rule, there are two points to consider. Firstly, the strategy must not rely on having an edge in resources of time, knowledge and finance, as retail investors are weakest in these areas when compared to all other players. Secondly, such a strategy must necessarily be based on the patience to buy shares at basement prices on a non-leveraged basis with minimal transactions over an extended period.
Q: How can retail investors know when shares are at basement prices?
A: Shares will be at basement prices when bearish psychology is extreme and liquidity is tight in the following situations:
-The asset bubble bursts and strong economy tailspins into a recession like the recent Asian crisis
-The economy goes into a period of stagflation
-The economy in a depression with prevailing banking crisis.
-The market crashes due to special events eg Gulf War, 19 Oct 1987 (program trading), LTCM debacle, etc
Q: How do I improve my timing in order to buy shares at basement prices?
A: For situations where share prices are low due to a weaker economic cycle it is best to invest over a six to 12 month period. The initial investment should be 50% of capital, with 10% each subsequently over the intended period for the last 50%. The timing of the initial investment of 50% is crucial.Based on my experience it is best to buy on the day following the national government's admission that the economy is in a recession and gives a negative GDP forecast for the rest of the year. When this announcement is one that makes the front page of the national daily, then almost all the bad news has been discounted by the market.
For a market crash due to a special event it is normally right to commit 50% of capital on the same day of the event and the rest of the 50% within a week. Special event crash tends to be immediate and furious as institutional and retail investors all unload holdings aggressively yet simultaneously, thereby prices reach bottom very quickly.In the case of a banking crisis, the time to buy is when the government's plan to use public money to re-capitalize the banks, whether directly or indirectly through tax incentives aimed at the disposal of bad loans, is at the final stage.
Q: What type of shares should one buy?
A: Buy the top two of the best-managed institutions from each of the key sectors of banking, media, telecommunications, healthcare and computer software. These sectors tend to be essential and also have inherent oligopoly power.
Q: Is the investing going to be smooth sailing?
A: Absolutely not, especially at the initial phase of your buying spree. All your good friends including your dear spouse will think that you are crazy. They will say, "The market is getting lower, this is too dangerous, you can wait". And likely, in the next few days or weeks after buying, the market may indeed go lower, and you will look like a fool.But to want to buy at the absolute bottom is not possible. But to buy near the bottom is possible and can be made highly probable by this approach. Be prepared for some short-term psychological torture. But you need to buy. If not, you will watch and miss the opportunity altogether. Somehow in most cases, you will later look like the wisest man in town for having the courage to buy those shares. View it as short term pain, long term gain.
Q: When then should one take profits?
A: For shares bought resulting from a market crash due to special events (ie it is a one-off situation), one can take profits when profits are between 30% to 70% within a six months period.However, for shares bought as a result of an economic crisis or economic downturn one should keep them for years. Liquidation should only begin when the bull market is so obvious and in such a great rage that it sucks in all kinds of new retail players. The greater fool theory, unfortunately, always comes into play near the end of a new bull market cycle. Shares should be disposed gradually over a 24-month period as bull markets normally last much longer than expected.
Q: After taking profits, what should the investor do with the money?
A: Stay in cash until shares are at basement prices again. This strategy implies that when not invested one must hold cash and be patient even if the waiting period is long. In fact, one of the unprofitable "myths" that is frequently encouraged and practiced is that of continued deployment of capital to enhance returns.This approach usually means that when the opportunity comes for acquiring bargain basement shares you will not have the money. Instead you will be among those hurt by lower share prices. Rather, you should build up liquidity for deployment when market liquidity is tightest in order to make big money.
Q: How often can a retail investor reasonably be expected to participate in such an investment strategy?
A: Assuming a 35-year investment life, one can expect to participate in three to four complete economic cycles, with each cycle of about eight to 10 years, yielding returns of at least 100% over capital. With this approach, transaction costs will be at the barest minimum and any disruption to one's job will be almost non-existent, as the investor will be doing nothing most of the time.
During this period of 35 years, one who is patient and courageous will in addition be rewarded with about five event market crashes, which should yield at least 30% for each event. Therefore this strategy though on a day to day basis does not seem to bear anything, can be very profitable and consistent over the 35 years horizon.Be patient and be prepared, and you will come out tops in the investment arena. If you are not patient and prepared, the stock market will be an expensive place to find out who you are.
Q: what is the appropriate strategy for retail investors?
A: As a general rule, there are two points to consider. Firstly, the strategy must not rely on having an edge in resources of time, knowledge and finance, as retail investors are weakest in these areas when compared to all other players. Secondly, such a strategy must necessarily be based on the patience to buy shares at basement prices on a non-leveraged basis with minimal transactions over an extended period.
Q: How can retail investors know when shares are at basement prices?
A: Shares will be at basement prices when bearish psychology is extreme and liquidity is tight in the following situations:
-The asset bubble bursts and strong economy tailspins into a recession like the recent Asian crisis
-The economy goes into a period of stagflation
-The economy in a depression with prevailing banking crisis.
-The market crashes due to special events eg Gulf War, 19 Oct 1987 (program trading), LTCM debacle, etc
Q: How do I improve my timing in order to buy shares at basement prices?
A: For situations where share prices are low due to a weaker economic cycle it is best to invest over a six to 12 month period. The initial investment should be 50% of capital, with 10% each subsequently over the intended period for the last 50%. The timing of the initial investment of 50% is crucial.Based on my experience it is best to buy on the day following the national government's admission that the economy is in a recession and gives a negative GDP forecast for the rest of the year. When this announcement is one that makes the front page of the national daily, then almost all the bad news has been discounted by the market.
For a market crash due to a special event it is normally right to commit 50% of capital on the same day of the event and the rest of the 50% within a week. Special event crash tends to be immediate and furious as institutional and retail investors all unload holdings aggressively yet simultaneously, thereby prices reach bottom very quickly.In the case of a banking crisis, the time to buy is when the government's plan to use public money to re-capitalize the banks, whether directly or indirectly through tax incentives aimed at the disposal of bad loans, is at the final stage.
Q: What type of shares should one buy?
A: Buy the top two of the best-managed institutions from each of the key sectors of banking, media, telecommunications, healthcare and computer software. These sectors tend to be essential and also have inherent oligopoly power.
Q: Is the investing going to be smooth sailing?
A: Absolutely not, especially at the initial phase of your buying spree. All your good friends including your dear spouse will think that you are crazy. They will say, "The market is getting lower, this is too dangerous, you can wait". And likely, in the next few days or weeks after buying, the market may indeed go lower, and you will look like a fool.But to want to buy at the absolute bottom is not possible. But to buy near the bottom is possible and can be made highly probable by this approach. Be prepared for some short-term psychological torture. But you need to buy. If not, you will watch and miss the opportunity altogether. Somehow in most cases, you will later look like the wisest man in town for having the courage to buy those shares. View it as short term pain, long term gain.
Q: When then should one take profits?
A: For shares bought resulting from a market crash due to special events (ie it is a one-off situation), one can take profits when profits are between 30% to 70% within a six months period.However, for shares bought as a result of an economic crisis or economic downturn one should keep them for years. Liquidation should only begin when the bull market is so obvious and in such a great rage that it sucks in all kinds of new retail players. The greater fool theory, unfortunately, always comes into play near the end of a new bull market cycle. Shares should be disposed gradually over a 24-month period as bull markets normally last much longer than expected.
Q: After taking profits, what should the investor do with the money?
A: Stay in cash until shares are at basement prices again. This strategy implies that when not invested one must hold cash and be patient even if the waiting period is long. In fact, one of the unprofitable "myths" that is frequently encouraged and practiced is that of continued deployment of capital to enhance returns.This approach usually means that when the opportunity comes for acquiring bargain basement shares you will not have the money. Instead you will be among those hurt by lower share prices. Rather, you should build up liquidity for deployment when market liquidity is tightest in order to make big money.
Q: How often can a retail investor reasonably be expected to participate in such an investment strategy?
A: Assuming a 35-year investment life, one can expect to participate in three to four complete economic cycles, with each cycle of about eight to 10 years, yielding returns of at least 100% over capital. With this approach, transaction costs will be at the barest minimum and any disruption to one's job will be almost non-existent, as the investor will be doing nothing most of the time.
During this period of 35 years, one who is patient and courageous will in addition be rewarded with about five event market crashes, which should yield at least 30% for each event. Therefore this strategy though on a day to day basis does not seem to bear anything, can be very profitable and consistent over the 35 years horizon.Be patient and be prepared, and you will come out tops in the investment arena. If you are not patient and prepared, the stock market will be an expensive place to find out who you are.
Labels: Stock Trading System
25 February 2014
彼得.林奇的25条黄金规则
彼得.林奇是个投资奇才，作为一个著名的基金管理人，他的思维更现代、投资技巧更新颖复杂，但我们从以下投资规则中能够看出，在骨子里他依然是与格雷厄姆、巴菲特一脉相承的基本面分析派：
1.投资是令人激动和愉快的事，但如果不作准备，投资也是一件危险的事情。
2.投资法宝不是得自华尔街投资专家，它是你已经拥有的。你可以利用自己的经验，投资于你已经熟悉的行业或企业，你能够战胜专家。
3.过去30年中，股票市场由职业炒家主宰，与公众的观点相反，这个现象使业余投资者更容易获胜，你可以不理会职业炒家而战胜市场。
4.每支股票背后都是一家公司，去了解这家公司在干什么。
5.通常，在几个月甚至几年内公司业绩与股票价格无关。但长期而言，两者之间100%相关。这个差别是赚钱的关键，要耐心并持有好股票。
6.你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它，“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠。
7.远射几乎总是脱靶。
8.持有股票就像养育孩子，不要超出力所能及的范围。业余选段人大概有时间追踪8～12家公司。不要同时拥有5种以上的股票。
9.如果你找不到一支有吸引力的股票，就把钱存进银行。
10.永远不要投资于你不了解其财务状况的公司。买股票最大的损失来自于那些财务状况不佳的公司。仔细研究公司的财务报表，确认公司不会破产。
11.避开热门行业的热门股票。最好的公司也会有不景气的时候，增长停滞的行业里有大赢家。
12.对于小公司，最好等到它们有利润之后再投资。
13.如果你想投资麻烦丛生的行业，就买有生存能力的公司，并且要等到这个行业出现复苏的信号时再买进。
14.如果你用1000元钱买股票，最大的损失就是1000元。但是如果你有足够的耐心，你可以获得1000元甚至5000元的收益。个人投资者可以集中投资几家绩优企业，而基金经理却必须分散投资。持股太多会失去集中的优势，持有几个大赢家终生受益。
15.在每个行业和每个地区，注意观察的业余投资者都能在职业炒家之前发现有巨大增长潜力的企业。
16.股市的下跌如科罗拉多州1月份的暴风雪一样是正常现象，如果你有所准备，它就不会伤害你。每次下跌都是大好机会，你可以挑选被风暴吓走的投资者放弃的廉价股票。
17.每个人都有足够的智力在股市赚钱，但不是每个人都有必要的耐力。如果你每遇到恐慌就想抛掉存货，你就应避开股市或股票基金。
18.总有一些事情需要操心。不要理会周末的焦虑和媒介最新的恐慌性言论。卖掉股票是因为公司的基本情况恶化，而不是因为天要塌下来。
19.没有人能够预测利率、经济形势及股票市场的走向，不要去搞这些预测。集中精力了解你所投资的公司情况。
20.分析卅家公司，你会发现1家基本情况超过预期;分析刘家，就能发现5家。在股票市场总能找到意外的惊喜——公司成就被华尔街低估的股票。
21.如果不研究任何公司，你在股市成功的机会，就如同打牌赌博时，不看自己的牌而打赢的机会一样。
22.当你持有好公司股票时，时间站在你这一边，你要有耐心——即使你在头5年中错过了沃尔玛特股票，但在下一个5年它仍是大赢家。
23.如果你有足够的耐性，但却既没有时间也没有能力与精力去自己搞研究，那就投资共同基金吧。这时，投资分散化是个好主意，你该持有几种不同的基金：增长型、价值型、小企业型、大企业型，等等。投资6家同类共同基金不是分散化。
24.在全球主要股票市场中，美国股市过去10年的总回报排名第八。通过海外基金，把一部分投资分散到海外，可以分享其他国家经济快速增长的好处。
25.长期而言，一个经过挑选的股票投资组合总是胜过债券或货币市场账户，而一个很差的股票投资组合还不如把钱放在坐垫下。
1.投资是令人激动和愉快的事，但如果不作准备，投资也是一件危险的事情。
2.投资法宝不是得自华尔街投资专家，它是你已经拥有的。你可以利用自己的经验，投资于你已经熟悉的行业或企业，你能够战胜专家。
3.过去30年中，股票市场由职业炒家主宰，与公众的观点相反，这个现象使业余投资者更容易获胜，你可以不理会职业炒家而战胜市场。
4.每支股票背后都是一家公司，去了解这家公司在干什么。
5.通常，在几个月甚至几年内公司业绩与股票价格无关。但长期而言，两者之间100%相关。这个差别是赚钱的关键，要耐心并持有好股票。
6.你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它，“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠。
7.远射几乎总是脱靶。
8.持有股票就像养育孩子，不要超出力所能及的范围。业余选段人大概有时间追踪8～12家公司。不要同时拥有5种以上的股票。
9.如果你找不到一支有吸引力的股票，就把钱存进银行。
10.永远不要投资于你不了解其财务状况的公司。买股票最大的损失来自于那些财务状况不佳的公司。仔细研究公司的财务报表，确认公司不会破产。
11.避开热门行业的热门股票。最好的公司也会有不景气的时候，增长停滞的行业里有大赢家。
12.对于小公司，最好等到它们有利润之后再投资。
13.如果你想投资麻烦丛生的行业，就买有生存能力的公司，并且要等到这个行业出现复苏的信号时再买进。
14.如果你用1000元钱买股票，最大的损失就是1000元。但是如果你有足够的耐心，你可以获得1000元甚至5000元的收益。个人投资者可以集中投资几家绩优企业，而基金经理却必须分散投资。持股太多会失去集中的优势，持有几个大赢家终生受益。
15.在每个行业和每个地区，注意观察的业余投资者都能在职业炒家之前发现有巨大增长潜力的企业。
16.股市的下跌如科罗拉多州1月份的暴风雪一样是正常现象，如果你有所准备，它就不会伤害你。每次下跌都是大好机会，你可以挑选被风暴吓走的投资者放弃的廉价股票。
17.每个人都有足够的智力在股市赚钱，但不是每个人都有必要的耐力。如果你每遇到恐慌就想抛掉存货，你就应避开股市或股票基金。
18.总有一些事情需要操心。不要理会周末的焦虑和媒介最新的恐慌性言论。卖掉股票是因为公司的基本情况恶化，而不是因为天要塌下来。
19.没有人能够预测利率、经济形势及股票市场的走向，不要去搞这些预测。集中精力了解你所投资的公司情况。
20.分析卅家公司，你会发现1家基本情况超过预期;分析刘家，就能发现5家。在股票市场总能找到意外的惊喜——公司成就被华尔街低估的股票。
21.如果不研究任何公司，你在股市成功的机会，就如同打牌赌博时，不看自己的牌而打赢的机会一样。
22.当你持有好公司股票时，时间站在你这一边，你要有耐心——即使你在头5年中错过了沃尔玛特股票，但在下一个5年它仍是大赢家。
23.如果你有足够的耐性，但却既没有时间也没有能力与精力去自己搞研究，那就投资共同基金吧。这时，投资分散化是个好主意，你该持有几种不同的基金：增长型、价值型、小企业型、大企业型，等等。投资6家同类共同基金不是分散化。
24.在全球主要股票市场中，美国股市过去10年的总回报排名第八。通过海外基金，把一部分投资分散到海外，可以分享其他国家经济快速增长的好处。
25.长期而言，一个经过挑选的股票投资组合总是胜过债券或货币市场账户，而一个很差的股票投资组合还不如把钱放在坐垫下。
Labels: Investment Quote, Reference, Stock Trading System
14 September 2013
5 Simple Ways to Invest Like a Pro
By Rob Berger
One of the best-kept secrets on Wall Street is one your broker hopes you never uncover— figuring out how to invest like a pro is really easy. In fact, any investor can build a well-diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds with little effort. It doesn’t require great expense, extensive knowledge of the market, or even a lot of time.
1. Keep it simple.
Investing does not have to be complicated. While some investors choose to buy individual stocks and bonds, for most of us, a couple of low-cost index funds will suffice. Even Warren Buffett recommends index funds as reflected in his 1996 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:
Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expense) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals. Seriously, costs matter. - Warren Buffett
Taken to its extreme, an investor can build a diversified investment portfolio from a single target-date mutual fund.
2. Go cheap.
As Warren Buffett noted in his letter quoted above, “costs matter.” Unfortunately, it’s easy to ignore costs when it comes to investing. Mutual funds do not send out a monthly bill for investors to pay. Instead, funds simply subtract the fees from the assets it holds. Yet even relatively small annual expenses, multiplied over a lifetime of investing, can make a serious dent in your nest egg.
Expenses that lower investment returns even one-half of a percent, for example, can result in substantially less money at retirement. The key is to invest in low cost stock index ETFs. Many index funds today cost less than 10 basis points (0.10 percent).
3. Invest with a plan.
A sound investment plan is simple to create. With the help of index funds, an investor can devise a simple asset allocation plan between stocks and bonds. Many suggest an investor should own her age in bonds, with the rest in stocks. For example, a 25-year-old would allocate 25 percent of her investments to bonds and 75 percent to stocks. Others suggest a more aggressive approach of owning a percentage of stocks equal to 120 minus your age. Regardless, choose a plan and stick with it.
Following an investment plan helps investors stay the course during difficult times. An investor in his 20s will undoubtedly experience significant bear markets over the next 50 years.Stocks will likely experience one-year losses of 20 to 30 percent several times over the next half-century. A sound investment plan will help an investor weather these storms.
4. Have no fear (or greed).
Fear and greed are two emotions that do not mix well with sound investing. When the stock market is moving up, many investors jump on the bandwagon in hopes of making a quick buck. When stocks eventually fall, those same investors run for the exit. The result is a repeating pattern of buying high and selling low.
Ideally, investors should do just the opposite. A bear market is an ideal time to buy stocks. A quick look back to 2008 and 2009 reveals many stocks that could have been purchased from the bargain racks. At a minimum, however, investors should avoid buying and selling based on the daily, monthly, or yearly fluctuations of the market. Following an investment plan as described above will help.
5. Track your results.
Tracking results is critical. As the price of investments fluctuates, investors will need to rebalance their investments periodically to keep them inline with their investment plan. As an investor nears his investment goal, such as retirement, changes may need to be made to the asset allocation plan. And the cost of investments should always be monitored.
Fortunately, there are many online tools that enable investors to track a portfolio for free. The one I use daily is called Personal Capital. It automatically imports investments from 401(k), IRA and other retirement accounts, as well as non-retirement accounts. It displays the asset allocation of a portfolio along with the total cost of the investments. Regardless of the tool used, however, the key is to monitor an investment portfolio regularly.
With these five tips, anybody can invest like a pro.
Rob Berger is the founder of the popular personal finance blog, the Dough Roller.
One of the best-kept secrets on Wall Street is one your broker hopes you never uncover— figuring out how to invest like a pro is really easy. In fact, any investor can build a well-diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds with little effort. It doesn’t require great expense, extensive knowledge of the market, or even a lot of time.
1. Keep it simple.
Investing does not have to be complicated. While some investors choose to buy individual stocks and bonds, for most of us, a couple of low-cost index funds will suffice. Even Warren Buffett recommends index funds as reflected in his 1996 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:
Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expense) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals. Seriously, costs matter. - Warren Buffett
Taken to its extreme, an investor can build a diversified investment portfolio from a single target-date mutual fund.
2. Go cheap.
As Warren Buffett noted in his letter quoted above, “costs matter.” Unfortunately, it’s easy to ignore costs when it comes to investing. Mutual funds do not send out a monthly bill for investors to pay. Instead, funds simply subtract the fees from the assets it holds. Yet even relatively small annual expenses, multiplied over a lifetime of investing, can make a serious dent in your nest egg.
Expenses that lower investment returns even one-half of a percent, for example, can result in substantially less money at retirement. The key is to invest in low cost stock index ETFs. Many index funds today cost less than 10 basis points (0.10 percent).
3. Invest with a plan.
A sound investment plan is simple to create. With the help of index funds, an investor can devise a simple asset allocation plan between stocks and bonds. Many suggest an investor should own her age in bonds, with the rest in stocks. For example, a 25-year-old would allocate 25 percent of her investments to bonds and 75 percent to stocks. Others suggest a more aggressive approach of owning a percentage of stocks equal to 120 minus your age. Regardless, choose a plan and stick with it.
Following an investment plan helps investors stay the course during difficult times. An investor in his 20s will undoubtedly experience significant bear markets over the next 50 years.Stocks will likely experience one-year losses of 20 to 30 percent several times over the next half-century. A sound investment plan will help an investor weather these storms.
4. Have no fear (or greed).
Fear and greed are two emotions that do not mix well with sound investing. When the stock market is moving up, many investors jump on the bandwagon in hopes of making a quick buck. When stocks eventually fall, those same investors run for the exit. The result is a repeating pattern of buying high and selling low.
Ideally, investors should do just the opposite. A bear market is an ideal time to buy stocks. A quick look back to 2008 and 2009 reveals many stocks that could have been purchased from the bargain racks. At a minimum, however, investors should avoid buying and selling based on the daily, monthly, or yearly fluctuations of the market. Following an investment plan as described above will help.
5. Track your results.
Tracking results is critical. As the price of investments fluctuates, investors will need to rebalance their investments periodically to keep them inline with their investment plan. As an investor nears his investment goal, such as retirement, changes may need to be made to the asset allocation plan. And the cost of investments should always be monitored.
Fortunately, there are many online tools that enable investors to track a portfolio for free. The one I use daily is called Personal Capital. It automatically imports investments from 401(k), IRA and other retirement accounts, as well as non-retirement accounts. It displays the asset allocation of a portfolio along with the total cost of the investments. Regardless of the tool used, however, the key is to monitor an investment portfolio regularly.
With these five tips, anybody can invest like a pro.
Rob Berger is the founder of the popular personal finance blog, the Dough Roller.
Labels: ETF, Stock Trading System, Warren Buffett
09 September 2013
十年股海投资心得
来源: 牛经沧海 于 2013-09-07
自九二年投资美国共同资金，九七年投资美国股市，零四年投资A股， 几度沉浮，曾经沧海。赶上经年不遇的纳市疯牛，亦曾创三年增值十数倍的回报， 宣告"退休"。却终究初生牛犊，未识江湖风恶，纸上富贵，一朝散尽。三年纳市狂泻， 5150 至 1100，三十年代大萧条也不过如此耳。历此一劫，方知吾非股神，彼非股神，机遇造神而已。
零四年投资A股， 皆因A股与中国经济的腾飞相背离。我已不再奢望速富，但求略胜大盘。选股思路删繁就简，惟三原则而已。
选股三原则
绩优: 只选净利润百强公司。凡有业绩支撑，跌时缓于大市，有逃顶的可能。想好退路，才可出击。净利润百强公司大致可代表国民经济大势。这些公司犹如人之青壮年，是赚钱的高位稳定期。虽然您可能错一些爆发的苗苗，但可靠性极重要。投资追求的是最高数学期望回报，而不是极大值。
高效: 只选净利润百强之中净资产收益率在本行业领先的公司。公司光赚钱还不够，赚钱不能只看绝对数多少，还要看这个公司每投资一块钱，在一年以内能赚回多少。
分散: 只选净利润百强之中净资产收益率在本行业领先的公司， 但一个行业选股不超过两个。大市热点时常会变。最聪明的人能抓住每一个热点，最遭糕的人能抓错每一个热点。我没有那么聪明，也不想做那种最遭糕的人，只好适当分散，等待大市热点的光顾。
选股重要， 操作往往更为关键。操作上我也只能守著三条最简单的要点:
操作三要点
多看: 投资股市不花 精力是不智。有人可能买了万科，从来没去理它，结果赚了大钱。千万不要因此认为不花精力反而更好，不要把小概率事件当成必然规律。股市与股票是时间与无数 个大小事件的函数。要想在股市投资上获得回报，您必得付出持之以恒的劳动。遭糕的是，这种劳动的付出并不能保证您有所回报，它只一项必要条件罢了。这就是 资本创造价值与劳动了创造价值的不同规律。多看作为资本创造价值一个组成部分，能够有效地减少投资失误，强化投资收益，猎获新兴投资题材，把握大势，推断 大盘的方向，时间与空间。日积月累的多看，为必要的少动时动在点子上，譬如加仓，减仓，换股。我每天花二至三小时，遍览新浪，网易， 中 国证卷等财经网站。看的时候以数据与事实为重点，兼读分析评论。要注意辨析各家论点正误真伪，不要盲从专家宏论，更不要听信股神蛊惑。股市里没有救世主。 股市专家相较其它各行各业中的专家是权威性最低的。这是因为投资股市致胜不全靠技术与理论，就像文艺评论家未必能创作经世之作。评论家分析别人的作品头头 是道，那是从技术与理论而言，他们有足够的资历。创作就是另外一件事了。再譬如工程师认为某座桥会倒塌，我就会绕那座桥，因为通过仿真计算，一名称职的工 程师是可以判断某座桥会不会倒塌。股市专家还做不到这程度。如果有人说他能准确预知大盘起落的时间与空间，他或者是骗子，或者是无知，最好的情形是碰巧。 本人在华尔街做事已十余载，有此等好事，岂能一无所知。无论哪种情形， 都不值得信以为真，顶多作个参考。虽然没有人能预知大盘起落的时间与空间，但也不是一点规律没有。股市专家总也是专家，他们的工作还是很有价值的，只要不过分盲从， 总是兼听则明，开卷有益。
少动: 真正的牛市总是涨得慢，跌得快。小的波浪不要去动，大的波浪不要全动。作小波浪的容易赚小利而失去大机会。大波浪当然希望能做对方向，时间与空间。可惜我办不到，我因此也不追求那种境界。何必硬要自己去摘取力不能及的星星呢? 投资不是竞赛，不值得去争第一。做到与大盘同等或略胜的业绩，您就算成功了，因为您好过一半以上的对手。如果能作对大浪中一部分，您就算很成功了。譬如您529或620逃了，605或706又进了，您或已达到大盘双倍的回报。我不成，227逃了，但不是大波，故不该逃。529或620该逃了， 可 我错失良机。如果是一场竞赛，我就是输家。可就投资而言，我仍是赢家，因为我终究还是胜过大盘。少动的另一原因是可以避免步步皆错的恶梦。虽不求最好，但 务必不要最差。可以说放弃强求最好，就是为了免遭滑铁泸，以退为进之策也。少动还有一利，就是节省交易费用。每省下一个百分点的交易费，就提高了二至三个 百分点的年化回率。
顺势: 投资股市需顺势而为。投资如同作人。血气方刚的时候，认为别人都错了，就自己正确，结果举步维艰，很不开心。刚作股票时也一样，专捡大跌的股票。结果我的股票赖在地板， 总也不动。后来逐渐领悟到，大势难违。投资股市的目的是赢利，不是当英雄。就算您是对的，只要一日别人不认同，您就得被套着，没商量。在股市里，时间就是钱，资本是有成本的。更为可悲的是，若是终于挨到春暖花开，那支死守一年半载的冤家乌鸦变凤凰之日， 只 可恨您又出手太早，倒让那顺势而为之人白拈了个巧。顺势并非追高杀跌，关键在于既要有自己的原则，又要避免刚愎自用，错失机遇。对个股要顺势，对大市而 言，更要顺势。大市趋淡，再好的个股也难免受累。大市做多，常常鸡犬升天。只要坚守绩优，高效，分散的选股持股原则，就会跌时跌得迟一点，浅一点，涨时 涨得早一点，久一点。不要轻看这一点一点的差异，成功的投资就是由它们积聚起来的。这一点点优势，给予您自信，给予您回报。
十年股海浮沉，收获不过点滴。虽句句肺腑，未必就能对您略有帮助。
Labels: Reference, Stock Trading System
08 September 2013
Stock Trading System
Labels: Stock Trading System
04 September 2013
期货交易经典语录
来源: snowboy128 于 09-07-22
理念篇
一、我永远只能是个观察者，而不是个控制者。
二、要想成为赢家就要从失败中找，而不是从胜利中找。因为失败者会选择变异，而胜利者却仰仗胜利而拒绝改变。这就是本质原因。
三、等候风险度有限而潜藏巨大收益的局面－－这才是投资的真正内涵。
四、我们应当树立这样的观念：趋势是第一位的，价格反而是第二位的。
五、美国证券投资上的名言：“多头和空头都可以在华尔街证券市场发大财，只有贪得无厌的人是例外。”
六、成功的人之所以成功，是因为他们总在想如何能够不失败；失败的人之所以失败，是因为他们太想成功。
七、期货市场的初段是勤奋和技艺，中段是智慧和心态，高段是人性和道德。
八、坚忍，耐心，信心并顽强执着地积累成功，这才是职业的交易态度。
九、成功必然来自于坚持正确的习惯方法和不断完善的性格修炼。
十、大自然本身是由规律性和大部分随机性组成，任何想完全、彻底、精确地把握世界的想法，都是狂妄、无知和愚蠢的表现。追求完美就是表现形式之一。“谋事在人，成事在天”，于人，我们讲是缘分而非最好；于事，我们讲究适应，能改变的是自己而非寄予外界提供。
十一、正确分析预测只是成功投资的第一步，成功投资的基础更需要严格的风险管理（仓位管理和止损管理），严谨的自我心理和情绪控制（宠辱不惊，处惊不变）。
十二、“把损失放在心上，利润就会照看好自己”。（克罗）
十三、亏钱与否和水平有关，赚钱多少和性格有关。
十四、选择市场的直接后果就是选择了风险，一切所谓的“安全”、“稳妥”都是相对的和有限的。
十五、经历和经验绝对是两回事：你可以什么都经历过、但未必注定就因此拥有丰富的经验--尽管经验一定来自经历。
十六、能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人很罕见，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。
十七、专业的交易者，他首先是个具备丰富内心世界和涵养的人。
十八、任何时候忘记了去尊重市场，都会铸下大错。
十九、盯住止损，止损是自己控制的；不考虑利润，因为利润是由市场控制的！
二十、成功的交易者是技巧、心态和德行的统一，三者不可分离。
方法篇
一、进场和出场的条件是不对等的。进场的理由必须是充分的、审慎的，有必胜把握的；但是，出场却不同，理由可以是简单的、朦胧的，甚至符合一些必要条件就行。
二、交易体系是在操作中总结经市场验证的方法，而盘感、技巧往往与自己的体系一致。交易者的系统体现了交易者自己的交易思想：对市场的认知、出入市的条件、损失的处理、风险承受能力的大小，以及资金管理等等，而不是简单的买卖。
三、过分看重预测可谓是期货市场上最普遍也是最严重的错误之一。
四、依重要性的程度来看，心理控制第一，风险管理第二，分析技能最次。
五、 从主观情绪型交易者质变到客观系统型交易者是长期积累沉淀升华的结果：无意识----意识到---做到----做好----坚持----习惯----融会贯通----忘记----大成。
六、小钱靠技术（聪明），大钱靠意志（智慧）。长线（智慧）判方向，短线（聪明）找时机。
七、承认自己不太了解市场，却偏偏因此而去做所谓的“短线”、这基本属于“找死”；在做所谓的“短线”时，因为被套而改为做“长线”则肯定属于“等死”。
八、交易的原则是：（1）顺着趋势的方向交易；（2）抱紧盈利的头寸，砍掉亏损的头寸。
九、赚大钱不靠解盘，而是靠评估整个市场和市场趋势。
十、在多头市场里，你的做法就是买进和紧抱，一直到你看到多头市场正在结束时为止。要这样做，你必须用自己的头脑和眼光，
十一、任何人所能学到的一个最有帮助的事情，是放弃最后一档——或第一档。这两档是世界上最昂贵的东西。
十二、人们常说一句话，在期货市场中，纪律和心态控制重于一切。然而，我却要不客气的指出，这一切的前提，是你必须要有一套完善、经过市场考验的交易系统，否则，就有流于空谈的危险。
十三、各类技术都有他相应最擅长的场合和成功率，互为验证，取长补短，是适当使用技术分析的关键。
十四、其实，预测系统只是交易系统中很小的一部分。而且，盈利的大小和预测对错也并非总是成正比。顺势才是关键。我有个朋友，他几乎从来就不预测，只跟随趋势，永远在右侧交易。
十五、一切皆平常。当你用一颗宽容的心去和别人交往的是,你也会得到许多宽容。同时当你对市场宽容的时候,市场会给你带来收益。
十六、成功的交易者总是张着两只眼，一只望着市场，一只永远望着自己。 任何时候，最大的敌人，就是你自己。 校正自己，永远比观察市场重要。
十七、计划你的交易，交易你的计划。
十八、耐心比决心重要。
理念篇
一、我永远只能是个观察者，而不是个控制者。
二、要想成为赢家就要从失败中找，而不是从胜利中找。因为失败者会选择变异，而胜利者却仰仗胜利而拒绝改变。这就是本质原因。
三、等候风险度有限而潜藏巨大收益的局面－－这才是投资的真正内涵。
四、我们应当树立这样的观念：趋势是第一位的，价格反而是第二位的。
五、美国证券投资上的名言：“多头和空头都可以在华尔街证券市场发大财，只有贪得无厌的人是例外。”
六、成功的人之所以成功，是因为他们总在想如何能够不失败；失败的人之所以失败，是因为他们太想成功。
七、期货市场的初段是勤奋和技艺，中段是智慧和心态，高段是人性和道德。
八、坚忍，耐心，信心并顽强执着地积累成功，这才是职业的交易态度。
九、成功必然来自于坚持正确的习惯方法和不断完善的性格修炼。
十、大自然本身是由规律性和大部分随机性组成，任何想完全、彻底、精确地把握世界的想法，都是狂妄、无知和愚蠢的表现。追求完美就是表现形式之一。“谋事在人，成事在天”，于人，我们讲是缘分而非最好；于事，我们讲究适应，能改变的是自己而非寄予外界提供。
十一、正确分析预测只是成功投资的第一步，成功投资的基础更需要严格的风险管理（仓位管理和止损管理），严谨的自我心理和情绪控制（宠辱不惊，处惊不变）。
十二、“把损失放在心上，利润就会照看好自己”。（克罗）
十三、亏钱与否和水平有关，赚钱多少和性格有关。
十四、选择市场的直接后果就是选择了风险，一切所谓的“安全”、“稳妥”都是相对的和有限的。
十五、经历和经验绝对是两回事：你可以什么都经历过、但未必注定就因此拥有丰富的经验--尽管经验一定来自经历。
十六、能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人很罕见，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。
十七、专业的交易者，他首先是个具备丰富内心世界和涵养的人。
十八、任何时候忘记了去尊重市场，都会铸下大错。
十九、盯住止损，止损是自己控制的；不考虑利润，因为利润是由市场控制的！
二十、成功的交易者是技巧、心态和德行的统一，三者不可分离。
方法篇
一、进场和出场的条件是不对等的。进场的理由必须是充分的、审慎的，有必胜把握的；但是，出场却不同，理由可以是简单的、朦胧的，甚至符合一些必要条件就行。
二、交易体系是在操作中总结经市场验证的方法，而盘感、技巧往往与自己的体系一致。交易者的系统体现了交易者自己的交易思想：对市场的认知、出入市的条件、损失的处理、风险承受能力的大小，以及资金管理等等，而不是简单的买卖。
三、过分看重预测可谓是期货市场上最普遍也是最严重的错误之一。
四、依重要性的程度来看，心理控制第一，风险管理第二，分析技能最次。
五、 从主观情绪型交易者质变到客观系统型交易者是长期积累沉淀升华的结果：无意识----意识到---做到----做好----坚持----习惯----融会贯通----忘记----大成。
六、小钱靠技术（聪明），大钱靠意志（智慧）。长线（智慧）判方向，短线（聪明）找时机。
七、承认自己不太了解市场，却偏偏因此而去做所谓的“短线”、这基本属于“找死”；在做所谓的“短线”时，因为被套而改为做“长线”则肯定属于“等死”。
八、交易的原则是：（1）顺着趋势的方向交易；（2）抱紧盈利的头寸，砍掉亏损的头寸。
九、赚大钱不靠解盘，而是靠评估整个市场和市场趋势。
十、在多头市场里，你的做法就是买进和紧抱，一直到你看到多头市场正在结束时为止。要这样做，你必须用自己的头脑和眼光，
十一、任何人所能学到的一个最有帮助的事情，是放弃最后一档——或第一档。这两档是世界上最昂贵的东西。
十二、人们常说一句话，在期货市场中，纪律和心态控制重于一切。然而，我却要不客气的指出，这一切的前提，是你必须要有一套完善、经过市场考验的交易系统，否则，就有流于空谈的危险。
十三、各类技术都有他相应最擅长的场合和成功率，互为验证，取长补短，是适当使用技术分析的关键。
十四、其实，预测系统只是交易系统中很小的一部分。而且，盈利的大小和预测对错也并非总是成正比。顺势才是关键。我有个朋友，他几乎从来就不预测，只跟随趋势，永远在右侧交易。
十五、一切皆平常。当你用一颗宽容的心去和别人交往的是,你也会得到许多宽容。同时当你对市场宽容的时候,市场会给你带来收益。
十六、成功的交易者总是张着两只眼，一只望着市场，一只永远望着自己。 任何时候，最大的敌人，就是你自己。 校正自己，永远比观察市场重要。
十七、计划你的交易，交易你的计划。
十八、耐心比决心重要。
Labels: Futures Trading, Reference, Risk Management, Stock Trading System
