22 June 2006
Market Rebounding As Expected, to Take a Breather for Now Especially for China Plays
Market has been rebounding for these few days as expected since last update. China plays are the clear leaders as expected based on pure technical analysis before market rebound, especially for those counters recommended for averaging down or for positioning for market rebound.
Note that in short term, many China plays have completed a 5 small up waves, which hints that internal maket strength is quite strong and further gains will be possible after a small technical correction based on Elliot Wave Theory. While I do not recommend to sell at this juncture just because of this expected small technical correction (a few days), I do not recommend to buy at this moment, either. Instead, wait for completion of this small correction before adding positions or buying some if you missed the first boat because of fear. Buy the strongest stocks in the first boat, the secret for profit is to look at volumes, buy those with volumes contracting quickly during correction, do not guess which one is the best or strongest, always look at volumes and how they match with price actions during correction.
So far I have recovered almost 50% of paper profits lost during panic selling, looking to have 80% recovery after completion of bear rally - Yes, the rebound is still a bear rally, or a sucker rally.
Stocks Update on 22 Jun 06
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
Market has been rebounding for these few days as expected since last update. China plays are the clear leaders as expected based on pure technical analysis before market rebound, especially for those counters recommended for averaging down or for positioning for market rebound.
Note that in short term, many China plays have completed a 5 small up waves, which hints that internal maket strength is quite strong and further gains will be possible after a small technical correction based on Elliot Wave Theory. While I do not recommend to sell at this juncture just because of this expected small technical correction (a few days), I do not recommend to buy at this moment, either. Instead, wait for completion of this small correction before adding positions or buying some if you missed the first boat because of fear. Buy the strongest stocks in the first boat, the secret for profit is to look at volumes, buy those with volumes contracting quickly during correction, do not guess which one is the best or strongest, always look at volumes and how they match with price actions during correction.
So far I have recovered almost 50% of paper profits lost during panic selling, looking to have 80% recovery after completion of bear rally - Yes, the rebound is still a bear rally, or a sucker rally.
Stocks Update on 22 Jun 06
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
Comments:
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Those stocks not bot so far tend to be among strongest performers. Not because I do not want to buy, but because I could not get them at my targeted prices. I missed them, which will be my focus after completion of a small technical correction (target : within amplitude of wave 4) of the amplitude of the initial small 5 up waves, mainly for China plays. Seems wave a (up, 5 small up waves) of wabe B has completed, wave b (down)of wave B started yesterday, wave c of wave B will start after wave b of wave B completes. Some laggards will have opportunity to perform during wave b of wave B, which is so-called rotational play. Midsouth may be one of them, buy tg 0.48, nl of db. Another one is Bright world, buy tg 0.445-0.45, nl of rshs. SembCorp is another example, tg buy 2.95-2.96.
As usual, those stocks not bot so far tend to be among strongest performers. Not because I do not want to buy them, but because I could not get them at my targeted or ideal buy prices and missed them as a result. I missed them despite my many times buy initiatives. They will be my focus after completion of a small technical correction (target : within amplitude of wave 4) of the amplitude of the initial 5 small up waves, mainly for China plays. Seems wave a in form of 5 small up wave of wave B has completed, wave b (down)of wave B started yesterday or is impending, wave c of wave B will start after wave b of wave B completes.
Some laggards will have opportunity to perform during wave b of wave B, which is so-called rotational play, as listed below,
Midsouth ------ db breakout yesterday, buy tg 0.48, nl of db.
Bright world ------ rshs breakout yesterday, buy tg 0.445-0.45, nl of rshs.
SembCorp ------ db breakout yesterday, tg buy 2.95-2.96, nl of db
http://toptrader.blogspot.com/
Some laggards will have opportunity to perform during wave b of wave B, which is so-called rotational play, as listed below,
Midsouth ------ db breakout yesterday, buy tg 0.48, nl of db.
Bright world ------ rshs breakout yesterday, buy tg 0.445-0.45, nl of rshs.
SembCorp ------ db breakout yesterday, tg buy 2.95-2.96, nl of db
http://toptrader.blogspot.com/
Stocks Update on 26 Jun 06
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53 sold .59 reason : 50% rebound tg trggered at .595
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78 sold .845 reason : price uptrend,vol downtrend,chart resistance .89, V reversal at top
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705 seems weak
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53 sold .59 reason : 50% rebound tg trggered at .595
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78 sold .845 reason : price uptrend,vol downtrend,chart resistance .89, V reversal at top
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705 seems weak
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
Other actions today
SMRT bot 1.12 cut 1.06 roc big round top, obv downtrend, m50 100 dead cross
Wingtai bot 1.62 cut 1.37 m50 downtrend, price down vol rise,obv downtrend,roc downtrend
Kian Ann qued to sell reason: rebound 50% tg 0.19 triggered, no buyer
Jaya bot 1.41 cut 1.30 price 5 waves up, vol downtrending, roc downtrending and very steep, obv downtrending
Contel bot .30? cut .275, price, m10, 50, 100 bearish arrangement, rebound weak, close price shs
Ellipsize bot .61 cut .495 rebound too quick, no bottom construction, liable to retrace down
CG Tech bot .31 (average)sold .315 and .33, rebound 50% triggered at 0.335
Overall status of trading capital - rebounded more than 50% of total loss of paper profit
Strategy - Continue to sell stocks as originally planned when individual stocks rebound to 50% of total price fall during panic selling
Plan - To start trading Mini Dow US$5 at night time from 6pm to 11pm using 1 min chart and M5 10 30, trade 1 contract only in the first few weeks to accummulate experiences and skills, add contracts gradually when confidence growing, preparation for bear market
SMRT bot 1.12 cut 1.06 roc big round top, obv downtrend, m50 100 dead cross
Wingtai bot 1.62 cut 1.37 m50 downtrend, price down vol rise,obv downtrend,roc downtrend
Kian Ann qued to sell reason: rebound 50% tg 0.19 triggered, no buyer
Jaya bot 1.41 cut 1.30 price 5 waves up, vol downtrending, roc downtrending and very steep, obv downtrending
Contel bot .30? cut .275, price, m10, 50, 100 bearish arrangement, rebound weak, close price shs
Ellipsize bot .61 cut .495 rebound too quick, no bottom construction, liable to retrace down
CG Tech bot .31 (average)sold .315 and .33, rebound 50% triggered at 0.335
Overall status of trading capital - rebounded more than 50% of total loss of paper profit
Strategy - Continue to sell stocks as originally planned when individual stocks rebound to 50% of total price fall during panic selling
Plan - To start trading Mini Dow US$5 at night time from 6pm to 11pm using 1 min chart and M5 10 30, trade 1 contract only in the first few weeks to accummulate experiences and skills, add contracts gradually when confidence growing, preparation for bear market
Candidates for wave c (up)of wave B
(Selection conditions - price 5 up waves, corresponding volumes 5 up waves):
T16 CHINA DAIRY
M09 MEDIARING
I04 XPRESS
I54 FABCHEM
G54 CHINA ESSENCE
W81 SKY CHINA
F53 CHINA HONG
B49 BRIGHT WORLD
L46 LUZHOU
J31 JIU TIAN
I85 HENG XIN
M32 MIDMOUTH
S11 SSH
(Selection conditions - price 5 up waves, corresponding volumes 5 up waves):
T16 CHINA DAIRY
M09 MEDIARING
I04 XPRESS
I54 FABCHEM
G54 CHINA ESSENCE
W81 SKY CHINA
F53 CHINA HONG
B49 BRIGHT WORLD
L46 LUZHOU
J31 JIU TIAN
I85 HENG XIN
M32 MIDMOUTH
S11 SSH
Stocks Update on 27 Jun 06
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53 sold .59 reason : 50% rebound tg trggered at .595
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61, sold .76 as planned, reason: rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.758 triggered on 270606
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325 DBS downgrade tg 0.42
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth m1050100200 bullish arrangement bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78 sold .845, reason : price uptrend,vol downtrend,chart resistance .89, V reversal at top
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705 seems weak
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
Other actions:
SSH sold .275 as planned on 270606, reason : rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.278 triggered yesterday, but failed to sell at 0.275 yesterday
Fibrechem db bot at 1.22 on 270606 db tg 1.43
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53 sold .59 reason : 50% rebound tg trggered at .595
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61, sold .76 as planned, reason: rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.758 triggered on 270606
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325 DBS downgrade tg 0.42
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth m1050100200 bullish arrangement bot .17
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78 sold .845, reason : price uptrend,vol downtrend,chart resistance .89, V reversal at top
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705 seems weak
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75)
Other actions:
SSH sold .275 as planned on 270606, reason : rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.278 triggered yesterday, but failed to sell at 0.275 yesterday
Fibrechem db bot at 1.22 on 270606 db tg 1.43
Stocks Update on 28 Jun 06
China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53 sold .59 reason : 50% rebound tg trggered at .595
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61, sold .76 as planned, reason: rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.758 triggered on 270606
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325 DBS downgrade tg 0.42, sold .36 on 280606
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545, sold .56 on 280606
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335, sold .37 on 280606
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33, sold .365 on 280606
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63, sold .69 on 280606
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth m1050100200 bullish arrangement bot .17, sold .175 on 280606
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78 sold .845, reason : price uptrend,vol downtrend,chart resistance .89, V reversal at top
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705 seems weak, sold .71 on 280606
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75, sold 3.00 on 280606
Other actions:
SSH sold .275 as planned on 270606, reason : rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.278 triggered yesterday, but failed to sell at 0.275 yesterday (260606)
Fibrechem db bot at 1.22 on 270606 db tg 1.43, cut 1.21 on 280606
Other counters --- all sold on 280606 except TPV, Kian Ann, Ausgroup since nobody picked up these three.
Today's mass sellings were triggered by steep falling of US market last night, fear of further rate rise by US Fed (Fed meeting in progress) and rising inflation, and potential unexpected statements or comments by inexperienced Fed chairman or his subsidiary.
Plan --- Wait patiently for potential opportunities to appear themselves based on technical chart signals only before taking further actions after Fed meeting and decision / comments / statement. Prepare trading Mini Dow US$5 at night time.
Shortlisted candidates for wave c (up)of wave B
(Selection conditions - price 5 up waves, corresponding volumes 5 up waves):
T16 CHINA DAIRY
M09 MEDIARING
I04 XPRESS
I54 FABCHEM
G54 CHINA ESSENCE
W81 SKY CHINA
F53 CHINA HONG
B49 BRIGHT WORLD
L46 LUZHOU
J31 JIU TIAN
I85 HENG XIN
M32 MIDMOUTH
S11 SSH
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China Essence db .455 -.505 bot .53 sold .59 reason : 50% rebound tg trggered at .595
China Milk db .83-.92
Fabchem db.38-.41
Luzhou db .49-.59
FerroChina db .55-.61 bot .61, sold .76 as planned, reason: rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.758 triggered on 270606
Mediaring db .275-.31 bot .325 DBS downgrade tg 0.42, sold .36 on 280606
China Dairy db .465-.51 bot 0.545, sold .56 on 280606
China Paper tb nl .325 bot .33 added .335, sold .37 on 280606
China Precision db .265-.32 bot .33, sold .365 on 280606
Midas db .59-.64 bot .65 added .63, sold .69 on 280606
ChinaPetro db .43-.50
Ezyhealth m1050100200 bullish arrangement bot .17, sold .175 on 280606
XPress db .125-.14
Longcheer db .665-.77 bot .78 sold .845, reason : price uptrend,vol downtrend,chart resistance .89, V reversal at top
Pac Andes db .635-.70 bot .705 seems weak, sold .71 on 280606
Link Hi db .15-.165
HengXin db .32-.37
JiuTian db .395-.465
SkyChina db .295-.325
SembCorp db 2.75-2.95 bot 2.96 tg 3.15 (minimum tg for db) to 3.195(upward retracement to 50% level of correction amplitude from 3.64 to 2.75, sold 3.00 on 280606
Other actions:
SSH sold .275 as planned on 270606, reason : rebound 50% of total fall tg 0.278 triggered yesterday, but failed to sell at 0.275 yesterday (260606)
Fibrechem db bot at 1.22 on 270606 db tg 1.43, cut 1.21 on 280606
Other counters --- all sold on 280606 except TPV, Kian Ann, Ausgroup since nobody picked up these three.
Today's mass sellings were triggered by steep falling of US market last night, fear of further rate rise by US Fed (Fed meeting in progress) and rising inflation, and potential unexpected statements or comments by inexperienced Fed chairman or his subsidiary.
Plan --- Wait patiently for potential opportunities to appear themselves based on technical chart signals only before taking further actions after Fed meeting and decision / comments / statement. Prepare trading Mini Dow US$5 at night time.
Shortlisted candidates for wave c (up)of wave B
(Selection conditions - price 5 up waves, corresponding volumes 5 up waves):
T16 CHINA DAIRY
M09 MEDIARING
I04 XPRESS
I54 FABCHEM
G54 CHINA ESSENCE
W81 SKY CHINA
F53 CHINA HONG
B49 BRIGHT WORLD
L46 LUZHOU
J31 JIU TIAN
I85 HENG XIN
M32 MIDMOUTH
S11 SSH
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