17 August 2006
Stocks Update (17 Aug 06)
Note: Technicals of China stocks are weakening on weekly charts. (11 Aug 06)
Today (17 Aug 06) bottom formation breakouts have increased by another 4 (including UTAC breakout yesterday) to 29 in total for 122 stocks on my radar, which may signal STI has a requirement of further rebound to a target of 2472 (50% rebound of total loss from 2666 to 2278, target triggered at 2472 on 07 Aug 06) or even higher, say, 2517 (61.8% of total loss from 2666 to 2278), before wave C down wave sets in.
Dow 30 and SP500 have both broken out of their double bottom neckline resistances as of 04 Aug 06!
Thus I decided to buy every breakout to avoid missing potential opportunities such as GES, no bias any more. (11 Aug 06) After a few days of reflection, find that this method is not efficient. I decided to switch back to an efficient method proven before: buy valid db breakout only - breakout must be accompanied with heavy volume. This method was very successful when it was used during mid Jun to Mid Jul 06 bear rally, leading to recovery of more than 50% of total loss of paper profit caused by STI free fall from 2666 to 2278. So far Mediaring (bot .35) and Starhub (bot 2.23) have been identified as having such characteristics. (15 Aug 06)
Noted that slide of China plays began to accelerate on 07 Aug 06, divergent with general market, which is not a good sign. This may relate to macro economic control measures implemented by the Chinese government in recent few days. I also noted that China stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell heavily in recent 3 weeks. That's why I attempted to clear majority of my positions related to China Plays to avoid potential risks. (07 Aug 06)
L26 Labroy Marine - nl 1.43, buy order not filled on 25/26/27/28/31 Jul 06 and 01 Aug 06 (02 Aug 06 update)
H78 HONGKONG LAND - db 3.34-3.80 tg 4.26, bot 3.82 on 24 Jul 06
G01 GES - db seems too small nl 1.05, not interested - a mistake, now (27 Jul 06) 1.22 due to Venture takeover offer of GES at 1.25
F33 FERROCHINA - db .56-.81 tg 1.06, bot 0.81 on 24 Jul 06, added 0.815 on 25 Jul 06, added .815 on 26 (?) Jul 06. Daiwa tg 1.00 (04 Aug 06). Cut all positions at .755 at a loss of 7.4% (07 Aug 06).
D05 DBS - nl 18.2 tg 19.2 former high, bot 18.3 on 25 Jul 06, added 18.2 on 27 Jul 06, added 18.2 on 28 Jul 06, added 18.2. (31 Jul 06) xd S$0.17 per share. (10 Aug 06)
C56 CELESTIAL - db seems too small, tg 1.60 (corrected) former rebound high, bot 1.42 on 25 Jul 06, high 1.54 on 27 Jul 06, close to tg 1.60, looking to take profit from tomorrow onwards, tg triggered, high 1.63 on 31 Jul 06, a bigger db nl at 1.60 has been broken out on 02 Aug 06, high 1.66, tg 2.10, historical high, bigger db tg is even high than this, greed comes, I decided to cancel profit taking for the time being since it is good time to buy rather than sell when the db nl is broken out(02 Aug 06). Merrill Lynch has a tg of 2.22 (03 Aug 06). Took profit at 1.54, profit 8.4%. (07 Aug 06)
Y62 Sino Env - rising triangle .565-.94, new high, blue line theory mentioned by The Art of Growing Money, chart formation target (tg) 1.31, bot .95 on 27 Jul 06, added .945 on 27 Jul 06, added .94 on 27 Jul 06, buy order at .94 and .94 not filled on 28 Jul 06, added 0.955 on 31 Jul 06, high .985. Cut 25% (correction) at .925, lost 2.6% (07 Aug 06). Sold 50% of original total positions at 1.00 since I saw a rising wedge on weekly chart last night. High 1.06. 25% positions left. (11 Aug 06) Surprise! Rising wedge broke out, up! which was supposed to break down. This is a bullish scenario! Major player is operating against common sense, demonstrating his / her strong financial muscle. Continue holding existing position, see how things pan out. (14 Aug 06)
F83 Cosco - 52 week new high, another blue line stock
T48 Singtel - db breakout, tg 2.76, nl 2.55, bot 2.52 on 28 Jul 06, added 2.52 on 28 Jul 06 (another account), high 2.59 (31 Jul 06). CitygroupSB tg 3.10, UOBKayHian tg 2.52, iocbc feels Singtel's result disappointing tg 3.02 maintains for now, CIMB-GK tg 2.82, KE tg 3.06 (03 Aug 06). DBS Vickers tg 3.04 (04 Aug 06). Ex-d S$0.10 per share (08 Aug 06)
T03 TAT - db breakout, nl 1.03
S72 SC Global - 52 week new high, nl 1.52
J36 JMH - db breakout, nl 18.4, buy order not filled on 28/31 Jul 06
U11 UOB - bot 15.5 on 31 Jul 06 on expectation of breakout of nl at 15.7, which was not achieved today (31 Jul 06), tg 17, the 52 weeks high (31 Jul 06), to add if 15.8 is traded, just read: DBS Vickers tg 17.8, iocbc tg 17.7, fox tg 17.98, ms overweight, ml tg 18.5, mac outperform, average tg 18, tg will be 17.1 if average tg 18 is discounted 5% (02 Aug 06). Added 15.7, breakout today at 15.8 (07 Aug 06). xd .20 per share. (14 Aug 06)
F12 Fibrechem - db breakout long time ago, tg 1.43, historical high, my tg 1.42, bot 1.22 on 31 Jul 06. KE tg 1.47, Philip tg 1.66 (03 Aug 06). Cut 1.08 since loss exceeded 10%, lost 11.5% (07 Aug 06).
D79 CG Tech - db .24-.35 breakout, tg .46, but historical high is .43, thus my tg .425, bot .35, high .36 (02 Aug 06). Keep it, cheap (07 Aug 06). Sold .355 to avoid potential risks, weekly charts of some other China plays not good. (11 Aug 06) Bot back at .36, 2Q result is very encouraging, easily worth .50 per share even if PE=5. Plan to average down if it falls 10%. Must have courage to rectify mistake made last Friday. After all, it is just a commission away to buy back, not a big deal. Making correct decision is more important than paying a commission. (15 Aug 06)
E90 China Sky - db .76-1.11 breakout, tg 1.46, but historical high is 1.32, thus my tg 1.31, bot 1.12, closed at 1.10 (02 Aug 06). Cut .96 since loss exceeded 10%, lost 14.3% (07 Aug 06).
M32 Midsouth - small db breakout, nl .555, tg .62 (recent rebound high), bot .56 (02 Aug 06). Keep it, solid result and bright prospect (07 Aug 06). Cut loss order at .53 not filled, China stocks weekly chart not good. (11 Aug 06)
5GJ Ausgroup - db .235-.31 breakout, tg .385, historical high .39, bot .31. (03 Aug 06) Price 5 waves up, volumes 5 waves up, bullish setup. (15 Aug 06)
S68 SGX - db 3.10-3.82 breakout, tg 4.54, historical high 4.94, bot 3.86 (03 Aug 06). Cut 3.84 to avoid potential risk since a negative engulfing candle stick appeared on its daily chart. (08 Aug 06)
C86 China Sun - Consolidation area .745-.895 breakout, tg 1.04, but historical high 1.02, thus tg is adjusted to 1.01, bot .895 (03 Aug 06). Cut .865, lost 3.4% (07 Aug 06).
U96 Sembcorp - db 2.80-3.38 breakout, tg 3.96, but historical high 3.64, thus tg is adjusted to 3.62, buy order not filled (03 Aug 06). Bot 3.34, note today is xe day (04 Aug 06)
5EE Aqua Terra - db .245-.405 breakout, tg .56, but historical high .53 (adjusted for bonus issue), thus tg is adjusted to .52, bot .415 (04 Aug 06). Cut .375 since loss exceeded 10%, low .35, lost 9.6%, note breakout on 04 Aug 06 was a trap made by the major manipulator (07 Aug 06). Noted same thing happened for Chip Eng Seng, breakout is fake on 04 Aug 06, objective of fake breakout is to attract outsiders such as me to buy while he / she can sell as many as possible. Result no good, net profit published on 08 Aug 06 dropped 58%, leading to gap down of this counter this morning! Wondering who is manipulating this counter, SGX needs to investigate. (08 Aug 06) Read chart of AT, breakout is actually a valid one since it was accompanied with heavy volume on the breakout day. Now .455. A mistake to have sold it! Sold not based on sound judgment. (15 Aug 06)
U14 UOL - db 2.64-3.00 breakout, tg 3.36, but historical high 3.28, thus tg is adjusted to 3.26, bot 2.99 (04 Aug 06)
F95 China Fishery - db 2.16-2.84 breakout, tg 3.52, historical high 3.74 (04 Aug 06)
C29 Chip Eng Seng - db .17-.205 breakout, tg .24, former high .27 (04 Aug 06). Buy order .205 not filled (07 Aug 06). Bot .20 (queued at .205). Noted same thing as Aqua Terra happened for Chip Eng Seng, breakout is fake on 04 Aug 06, objective of fake breakout is to attract outsiders such as me to buy while manipulator(s) of this counter can sell as many as possible because he / she knows bad news is coming. It is not a surprise; net profit published on 08 Aug 06 dropped 58%, leading to gap down of this counter this morning! Wondering who is manipulating this counter, SGX needs to investigate. (08 Aug 06) Cut loss order at .20 not filled. (11 Aug 06) DB breakout is a valid one since it was accompanied with heavy volume on the breakout day. Hold existing position. (15 Aug 06)
C22 China Mer Pacif - db .72-.82 breakout, tg .92, former high .92 (04 Aug 06) Opportunity was given up since breakout was not accompanied with heavy volume. (15 Aug 06)
M09 Mediaring - Sold remaining half at .36 (queued at .355) with a small profit since a small double top formation was broken down yesterday, this triggered my profit taking level. (08 Aug 06) Read chart and found that a small db actually broke out with heavy volume, demonstrating that this is a valid breakout. Bot back at .35. (14 Aug 06)
T54 Star Hub - db 2.06-2.25 breakout, which is a valid breakout since this breakout was accompanied with heavy volume, bot 2.23, tg 2.44. (15 Aug 06)
U12 UTAC - DB breakout, nl .715. Weekly chart shows 5 down waves completed, and a positive engulfing, a morning star, and a db breakout with heavy volume. A significant rebound is likely from now on, tg .87 (rebound 50% of total loss from recent high to low). (16 Aug 06) Buy order at .715 not filled. (17 Aug 06)
B32 BH Global - New high, breakout, nl .315, bot .315. (17 Aug 06)
M29 MMI - db .655-.735 breakout, tg .815, former high .855, bot .74. This one is safe, bot at .735 for my family account also. (17 Aug 06)
K01 K1 Venture - db .30-.37 breakout, tg .44, bot .375. (17 Aug 06)
Note: Technicals of China stocks are weakening on weekly charts. (11 Aug 06)
Today (17 Aug 06) bottom formation breakouts have increased by another 4 (including UTAC breakout yesterday) to 29 in total for 122 stocks on my radar, which may signal STI has a requirement of further rebound to a target of 2472 (50% rebound of total loss from 2666 to 2278, target triggered at 2472 on 07 Aug 06) or even higher, say, 2517 (61.8% of total loss from 2666 to 2278), before wave C down wave sets in.
Dow 30 and SP500 have both broken out of their double bottom neckline resistances as of 04 Aug 06!
Thus I decided to buy every breakout to avoid missing potential opportunities such as GES, no bias any more. (11 Aug 06) After a few days of reflection, find that this method is not efficient. I decided to switch back to an efficient method proven before: buy valid db breakout only - breakout must be accompanied with heavy volume. This method was very successful when it was used during mid Jun to Mid Jul 06 bear rally, leading to recovery of more than 50% of total loss of paper profit caused by STI free fall from 2666 to 2278. So far Mediaring (bot .35) and Starhub (bot 2.23) have been identified as having such characteristics. (15 Aug 06)
Noted that slide of China plays began to accelerate on 07 Aug 06, divergent with general market, which is not a good sign. This may relate to macro economic control measures implemented by the Chinese government in recent few days. I also noted that China stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell heavily in recent 3 weeks. That's why I attempted to clear majority of my positions related to China Plays to avoid potential risks. (07 Aug 06)
L26 Labroy Marine - nl 1.43, buy order not filled on 25/26/27/28/31 Jul 06 and 01 Aug 06 (02 Aug 06 update)
H78 HONGKONG LAND - db 3.34-3.80 tg 4.26, bot 3.82 on 24 Jul 06
G01 GES - db seems too small nl 1.05, not interested - a mistake, now (27 Jul 06) 1.22 due to Venture takeover offer of GES at 1.25
F33 FERROCHINA - db .56-.81 tg 1.06, bot 0.81 on 24 Jul 06, added 0.815 on 25 Jul 06, added .815 on 26 (?) Jul 06. Daiwa tg 1.00 (04 Aug 06). Cut all positions at .755 at a loss of 7.4% (07 Aug 06).
D05 DBS - nl 18.2 tg 19.2 former high, bot 18.3 on 25 Jul 06, added 18.2 on 27 Jul 06, added 18.2 on 28 Jul 06, added 18.2. (31 Jul 06) xd S$0.17 per share. (10 Aug 06)
C56 CELESTIAL - db seems too small, tg 1.60 (corrected) former rebound high, bot 1.42 on 25 Jul 06, high 1.54 on 27 Jul 06, close to tg 1.60, looking to take profit from tomorrow onwards, tg triggered, high 1.63 on 31 Jul 06, a bigger db nl at 1.60 has been broken out on 02 Aug 06, high 1.66, tg 2.10, historical high, bigger db tg is even high than this, greed comes, I decided to cancel profit taking for the time being since it is good time to buy rather than sell when the db nl is broken out(02 Aug 06). Merrill Lynch has a tg of 2.22 (03 Aug 06). Took profit at 1.54, profit 8.4%. (07 Aug 06)
Y62 Sino Env - rising triangle .565-.94, new high, blue line theory mentioned by The Art of Growing Money, chart formation target (tg) 1.31, bot .95 on 27 Jul 06, added .945 on 27 Jul 06, added .94 on 27 Jul 06, buy order at .94 and .94 not filled on 28 Jul 06, added 0.955 on 31 Jul 06, high .985. Cut 25% (correction) at .925, lost 2.6% (07 Aug 06). Sold 50% of original total positions at 1.00 since I saw a rising wedge on weekly chart last night. High 1.06. 25% positions left. (11 Aug 06) Surprise! Rising wedge broke out, up! which was supposed to break down. This is a bullish scenario! Major player is operating against common sense, demonstrating his / her strong financial muscle. Continue holding existing position, see how things pan out. (14 Aug 06)
F83 Cosco - 52 week new high, another blue line stock
T48 Singtel - db breakout, tg 2.76, nl 2.55, bot 2.52 on 28 Jul 06, added 2.52 on 28 Jul 06 (another account), high 2.59 (31 Jul 06). CitygroupSB tg 3.10, UOBKayHian tg 2.52, iocbc feels Singtel's result disappointing tg 3.02 maintains for now, CIMB-GK tg 2.82, KE tg 3.06 (03 Aug 06). DBS Vickers tg 3.04 (04 Aug 06). Ex-d S$0.10 per share (08 Aug 06)
T03 TAT - db breakout, nl 1.03
S72 SC Global - 52 week new high, nl 1.52
J36 JMH - db breakout, nl 18.4, buy order not filled on 28/31 Jul 06
U11 UOB - bot 15.5 on 31 Jul 06 on expectation of breakout of nl at 15.7, which was not achieved today (31 Jul 06), tg 17, the 52 weeks high (31 Jul 06), to add if 15.8 is traded, just read: DBS Vickers tg 17.8, iocbc tg 17.7, fox tg 17.98, ms overweight, ml tg 18.5, mac outperform, average tg 18, tg will be 17.1 if average tg 18 is discounted 5% (02 Aug 06). Added 15.7, breakout today at 15.8 (07 Aug 06). xd .20 per share. (14 Aug 06)
F12 Fibrechem - db breakout long time ago, tg 1.43, historical high, my tg 1.42, bot 1.22 on 31 Jul 06. KE tg 1.47, Philip tg 1.66 (03 Aug 06). Cut 1.08 since loss exceeded 10%, lost 11.5% (07 Aug 06).
D79 CG Tech - db .24-.35 breakout, tg .46, but historical high is .43, thus my tg .425, bot .35, high .36 (02 Aug 06). Keep it, cheap (07 Aug 06). Sold .355 to avoid potential risks, weekly charts of some other China plays not good. (11 Aug 06) Bot back at .36, 2Q result is very encouraging, easily worth .50 per share even if PE=5. Plan to average down if it falls 10%. Must have courage to rectify mistake made last Friday. After all, it is just a commission away to buy back, not a big deal. Making correct decision is more important than paying a commission. (15 Aug 06)
E90 China Sky - db .76-1.11 breakout, tg 1.46, but historical high is 1.32, thus my tg 1.31, bot 1.12, closed at 1.10 (02 Aug 06). Cut .96 since loss exceeded 10%, lost 14.3% (07 Aug 06).
M32 Midsouth - small db breakout, nl .555, tg .62 (recent rebound high), bot .56 (02 Aug 06). Keep it, solid result and bright prospect (07 Aug 06). Cut loss order at .53 not filled, China stocks weekly chart not good. (11 Aug 06)
5GJ Ausgroup - db .235-.31 breakout, tg .385, historical high .39, bot .31. (03 Aug 06) Price 5 waves up, volumes 5 waves up, bullish setup. (15 Aug 06)
S68 SGX - db 3.10-3.82 breakout, tg 4.54, historical high 4.94, bot 3.86 (03 Aug 06). Cut 3.84 to avoid potential risk since a negative engulfing candle stick appeared on its daily chart. (08 Aug 06)
C86 China Sun - Consolidation area .745-.895 breakout, tg 1.04, but historical high 1.02, thus tg is adjusted to 1.01, bot .895 (03 Aug 06). Cut .865, lost 3.4% (07 Aug 06).
U96 Sembcorp - db 2.80-3.38 breakout, tg 3.96, but historical high 3.64, thus tg is adjusted to 3.62, buy order not filled (03 Aug 06). Bot 3.34, note today is xe day (04 Aug 06)
5EE Aqua Terra - db .245-.405 breakout, tg .56, but historical high .53 (adjusted for bonus issue), thus tg is adjusted to .52, bot .415 (04 Aug 06). Cut .375 since loss exceeded 10%, low .35, lost 9.6%, note breakout on 04 Aug 06 was a trap made by the major manipulator (07 Aug 06). Noted same thing happened for Chip Eng Seng, breakout is fake on 04 Aug 06, objective of fake breakout is to attract outsiders such as me to buy while he / she can sell as many as possible. Result no good, net profit published on 08 Aug 06 dropped 58%, leading to gap down of this counter this morning! Wondering who is manipulating this counter, SGX needs to investigate. (08 Aug 06) Read chart of AT, breakout is actually a valid one since it was accompanied with heavy volume on the breakout day. Now .455. A mistake to have sold it! Sold not based on sound judgment. (15 Aug 06)
U14 UOL - db 2.64-3.00 breakout, tg 3.36, but historical high 3.28, thus tg is adjusted to 3.26, bot 2.99 (04 Aug 06)
F95 China Fishery - db 2.16-2.84 breakout, tg 3.52, historical high 3.74 (04 Aug 06)
C29 Chip Eng Seng - db .17-.205 breakout, tg .24, former high .27 (04 Aug 06). Buy order .205 not filled (07 Aug 06). Bot .20 (queued at .205). Noted same thing as Aqua Terra happened for Chip Eng Seng, breakout is fake on 04 Aug 06, objective of fake breakout is to attract outsiders such as me to buy while manipulator(s) of this counter can sell as many as possible because he / she knows bad news is coming. It is not a surprise; net profit published on 08 Aug 06 dropped 58%, leading to gap down of this counter this morning! Wondering who is manipulating this counter, SGX needs to investigate. (08 Aug 06) Cut loss order at .20 not filled. (11 Aug 06) DB breakout is a valid one since it was accompanied with heavy volume on the breakout day. Hold existing position. (15 Aug 06)
C22 China Mer Pacif - db .72-.82 breakout, tg .92, former high .92 (04 Aug 06) Opportunity was given up since breakout was not accompanied with heavy volume. (15 Aug 06)
M09 Mediaring - Sold remaining half at .36 (queued at .355) with a small profit since a small double top formation was broken down yesterday, this triggered my profit taking level. (08 Aug 06) Read chart and found that a small db actually broke out with heavy volume, demonstrating that this is a valid breakout. Bot back at .35. (14 Aug 06)
T54 Star Hub - db 2.06-2.25 breakout, which is a valid breakout since this breakout was accompanied with heavy volume, bot 2.23, tg 2.44. (15 Aug 06)
U12 UTAC - DB breakout, nl .715. Weekly chart shows 5 down waves completed, and a positive engulfing, a morning star, and a db breakout with heavy volume. A significant rebound is likely from now on, tg .87 (rebound 50% of total loss from recent high to low). (16 Aug 06) Buy order at .715 not filled. (17 Aug 06)
B32 BH Global - New high, breakout, nl .315, bot .315. (17 Aug 06)
M29 MMI - db .655-.735 breakout, tg .815, former high .855, bot .74. This one is safe, bot at .735 for my family account also. (17 Aug 06)
K01 K1 Venture - db .30-.37 breakout, tg .44, bot .375. (17 Aug 06)
