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03 March 2007

 
CG Tech
dans wrote:
Pls take a look at CG Tech's strong fundamentals. I filtered through SGX website, and was hard to find another company has the
Current Ratio>7, Quick Ratio>6.4, ROE>33%, PE<7,

--Security Analysis of CG Tech at Year 2006--
Revenue (RMB'1000).................707016
Profit Before Tax (RMB'1000)..... 160420
Tax (RMB'1000)........................25603
Gross Profit Margin........................22.69%
Return On Equity (ROE).............33.36% (very good)
Inventory (RMB'1000)..................31409
Current Asset (RMB'1000)..........387618
Current Liability (RMB'1000).........55547
Total Asset (RMB'1000)..............616792
Total Liability (RMB'1000)...........212605
Total Equity (RMB'1000).............404187
Current Ratio.............................7.0 (very good)
Quick Ratio................................6.4 (very good)
Equity Multiplier.........................1.53
Cash Asset Ratio.......................0.7 (very good)
Earing Per Share (RMB cents).....51.85
PE Ratio....................................6.9
Begining Cash 2006 (RMB'1000)..135256
End cash of 2006 (RMB'1000)......272480 (positive cash flow)
Net Asset Value (RMB cents)...... 155.46

--Projection of CG Tech at Year 2007--
High Shrinkage PET chips (high profit margin) increase from 4800(ton) to 7000(ton)
Dye-absorbing PET chips (high profit margin) increase from 1000(ton) to 13800(ton)
Bright & Semi-dull PET chips (low profit margin) decreases from 15000(ton) to 0(ton)
Bright & Semi-dull PET chips decreases from 15000(ton) to 0(ton)
Yarn products maintains from 9750(ton) to 9750(ton)
Alkali-soluble PET chips maintains from 11605(ton) to 11605(ton)
Combined yarn maintains from 6000(ton) to 6000(ton)
PSF increases from 0(ton) to 10000(ton)
Compact Combed Yarn increases from 0(ton) to 7000(ton)
Overal profit increase by: 40%
Earning Per Share: 72.59 (RMB cents)
Apply a PE=8
Fair Market Value:116 (SGD cents)

Toptrader says,
well done!
note that PSF increases from 0(ton) to 10000(ton) is in Q4FY07 and Compact Combed Yarn increases from 0(ton) to 7000(ton) starts from 1Q08.
see below from my blog,
http://www.toptrader.blogspot.com/
Quote:
below is my revised estimates after a careful review,
New product PSF
revenue = Yuan 18000/ton X capacity 10000 tons = yuan 180m =S$36m
GPM 30%, GP=36mX30%=S$10.8m
to start production 4Q2007 (delayed 1 quater, see above)

New product compact combed yarn
revenue = yuan 31000/ton X capacity 7000 tons=yuan 217m=S$43.4m
GPM 32%, GP=S$43.4X32%=S$13.888m
to start production 1Q2008 (delayed 1 quarter, see above)

Total GP for new products to be added=10.8+13.888=S$24.688m
total shares outstanding = 260m
eps for 2008 for newly added products portion only = (24.688X70%)/260 = S$0.066 for FY08,

eps FY06 = 0.104 tg 0.52-1.04 if pe=5-10

eps FY07 = 0.104X1.333 = 0.139 tg 0.695-1.39 if pe=5-10 (note CG trading near lower band of the tg scope)

eps FY08 = 0.139X1.333+0.066 = 0.250 tg 1.25-2.50 if pe=5-10

Therefore, I upgrade CG Tech to strong strong buy.

CG Tech target price for 2007 is 1.39, implying an upside of 78% from current price of .78.

CG Tech target price for 2008 is 2.50.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Saturday, March 03, 2007
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# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : Wednesday, January 16, 2008 at 10:46:00 AM GMT+8
 
Seems to have crashed and burned
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : Monday, February 27, 2012 at 1:14:00 PM GMT+8
 
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