Trading for a Living

Longing daily MA250 500 1000 duopai and trending up RSI 14 <= 30 Buy, the lower the price, the better Longing daily MA250 500 1000 duopai and trending up big chart pattern breakout then price retracement until RSI 14 <= 30 Buy, the lower the price, the better Longing daily MA250 500 1000 duopai and trending up Chart pattern appears and neckline of it above all MAs - 50 100 200 250 500 1000 Long with buy stop limit order on breakout of neckline Stop loss: 1% below chart pattern Shorting daily MA250 500 1000 kongpai and trending down RSI 14 >= 70 Sell, the higher the price, the better Shorting daily MA250 500 1000 kongpai and trending down big chart pattern breakdown then price retracement until RSI 14 >= 70 Sell, the higher the price, the better Shorting daily MA250 500 1000 kongpai and trending down Chart pattern appears and neckline of it below all MAs - 50 100 200 250 500 1000 Short with sell stop limit order on breakdown of neckline Stop loss: 1% above chart pattern

S&P 500 Index returned below resistance zone after false breakout (bull trap), awaiting technical signal to close short positions and build long positions.

今天美国新冠状病毒感染确诊已经60115例，死亡病例809例。由于本次的世纪瘟疫发生在流行性感冒和普通感冒的春天流行季节，加上春暖花开中夹杂着大量花粉过敏的人群！一时间，但凡稍有感冒或咳嗽的或大惊失色或手足无措！那么，能够学会自我初步而快速地判定和甄别是否中了新冠病毒的秘籍就至关重要了！

要想甄别流感和感冒与新冠病毒，首先得简要了解一点什么是冠状病毒哈！目前一共有七种已知类型的人类冠状病毒，其中四种类型(229E、NL63、OC43 和 KHU1)是很常见的冠状病毒, 由这四种冠状病毒感染后被称为普通感冒。普通感冒会引起轻中度呼吸道感染,例如流鼻涕、头痛、咳嗽、喉咙痛和发烧等。我们现代的人类的绝大部分会在一生中感染至少一次导致普通感冒的冠状病毒。这些感染通常发生在春季秋季或冬季。 另外两种类型,即严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 (SARS-CoV) 和中东呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 (MERS-CoV) 是我们所熟知的啦，由这两种冠状病毒感染可引起严重的呼吸道感染。比如，严重急性呼吸系统综合征 (SARS) 是2002 年在中国发现的一种冠状病毒感染，SARS 病毒当时迅速传播到了北美、南美、欧洲和亚洲的几十个国家。在2002 年至2003 年暴发期间,近8100 人被感染。在美国有八名确诊的SARS 感染者病例。而中东呼吸系统综合征 (MERS)是2012 年被发现的,全世界一共有2500 名MERS 的确诊病例，而所有这些病例都与去过或居住在阿拉伯半岛或其附近有关，美国确诊了2例。第七种 (2019-nCoV)，也就是我今天说的也是现在猖狂中的冠状病毒了！这种病毒有非凡的人人传染能力，而且致死率今天一天在意大利和西班牙就都超过了700人！虽然都是冠状病毒，但2019-nCoV新冠病毒所产生的症状还是相当有特征性的，这有助于与其它感冒进行甄别！

1，2019-nCoV新冠病毒感染的症状第一个特点就是：在所谓的无症状期绝大多数感染者就会出现嗅觉和味觉的异常，而且这些症状随着感染的加重而加重。英国在报道了这一现象以后，正在联合其它国家一起做大数据分析，估计很快就会有感染早起发生嗅觉和味觉障碍的比例，这对早期无症状感染的诊断和预警非常重要。

2，2019-nCoV新冠病毒感染的症状第二个特点就是：流鼻涕症状少而不明显！这一条虽然不是绝对，但足以与大量的以流鼻涕症状起始的普通感冒区分开来。

3，2019-nCoV新冠病毒感染的症状第三个特点就是：除了无症状期以外，有症状期基本以发烧打前站，随后出现喉咙痛以及干咳和头痛，之后大量咳痰和高热伴呼吸困难。

4，2019-nCoV新冠病毒感染的症状第四个特点就是：眩晕以及腹痛和腹泻是重症感染的征兆之一。同时，在轻症到重症肺炎呈现短时间跳跃现象。

Labels: Health

Ms Firestone认为：

1. 从2月19日S&P500的3386高点下跌了30%-40%之后，股市大约会在2021年重新回到那天的高点，现在的市值只有14.5（price/earring ratio）；

2. 在各种坏消息出来后，大盘可能会再下跌5%-10%，但经济会在2021年复苏；

3. 自1960年到现在，每次大盘下跌27%的6-12个月之后，所有的下跌，都比下跌的低点高出11%；

4. 目前我们最应该做的就是提高我们手里股票的质量，我买了微软公司，因为他们公司提供了很多现代经济必须用的产品，比如我们在家工作的工具等等，同时微软有130B的现金，足以支持他们渡过难关；

5. 市场如果因为坏消息出来后再次下跌10%的话，那是买入优质股票的好时机：政府发放2T的救助资金+FED unlimited流动资金补充；

6. 过去两周市场面临严峻的资金流动困境，很多资产包括金子债券等都被抛售，目前来看liquidity problems已经被解决了；现在没有流动资金短缺等问题了，因为政府会出资帮助50人以下的小公司和个人。

Enable JavaScript in Google Chrome
On your computer, open Chrome.
At the top right, click More. Settings.
At the bottom, click Advanced.
Under "Privacy and security," click Content settings.
Click JavaScript.
Turn on Allowed (recommended).

How to enable JavaScript in your browser
Nowadays almost all web pages contain JavaScript, a scripting programming language that runs on visitor's web browser. It makes web pages functional for specific purposes and if disabled for some reason, the content or the functionality of the web page can be limited or unavailable. Here you can find instructions on how to enable (activate) JavaScript in five most commonly used browsers.
Internet Explorer Mozilla Firefox Google Chrome Opera Apple Safari
Javascript is enabled in your web browser. If you disable JavaScript, this text will change.
Instructions for web developers
You may want to consider linking to this site, to educate any script-disabled users on how to enable JavaScript in five most commonly used browsers. You are free to use the code below and modify it according to your needs.


On enable-javascript.com we optimize the script-disabled user experience as much as we can:
The instructions for your browser are put at the top of the page
All the images are inlined, full-size, for easy perusing
This developer-centric message is out of the way.
We want your visitors to have JavaScript enabled just as much as you do!
Google Chrome
On the web browser menu click on the "Customize and control Google Chrome" and select "Settings".
In the "Settings" section click on the "Show advanced settings..."
Under the the "Privacy" click on the "Content settings...".
When the dialog window opens, look for the "JavaScript" section and select "Allow all sites to run JavaScript (recommended)".
Click on the "OK" button to close it.
Close the "Settings" tab.
Click on the "Reload this page" button of the web browser to refresh the page.
1. On the web browser menu click on the "Customize and control Google Chrome" and select "Settings". 2. In the "Settings" section click on the "Show advanced settings..." 3. Under the the "Privacy" click on the "Content settings...". 4. When the dialog window opens, look for the "JavaScript" section and select "Allow all sites to run JavaScript (recommended)". 5. Click on the "OK" button to close it. 6. Close the "Settings" tab. 7. Click on the "Reload this page" button of the web browser to refresh the page.
Internet Explorer
On web browser menu click "Tools" icon and select "Internet Options".
In the "Internet Options" window select the "Security" tab.
On the "Security" tab click on the "Custom level..." button.
When the "Security Settings - Internet Zone" dialog window opens, look for the "Scripting" section.
In the "Active Scripting" item select "Enable".
When the "Warning!" window pops out asking "Are you sure you want to change the settings for this zone?" select "Yes".
In the "Internet Options" window click on the "OK" button to close it.
Click on the "Refresh" button of the web browser to refresh the page.
1. ie9 01 2. ie9 02 3. ie9 03 4. ie9 04 5. ie9 05 6. ie9 06 7. ie9 07 8. ie9 08
Internet Explorer < 9
On web browser menu click "Tools" and select "Internet Options"
In the "Internet Options" window select the "Security" tab.
On the "Security" tab click on the "Custom level..." button.
When the "Security Settings - Internet Zone" dialog window opens, look for the "Scripting" section.
In the "Active Scripting" item select "Enable".
When the "Warning!" window pops out asking "Are you sure you want to change the settings for this zone?" select "Yes".
In the "Internet Options" window click on the "OK" button to close it.
Click on the "Refresh" button of the web browser to refresh the page.
1. ie 01 2. ie 02 3. ie 03 4. ie 04 5. ie 05 6. ie 06 7. ie 07 8. ie 08
Mozilla Firefox
In the address bar, type about:config and press Enter.
Click "I'll be careful, I promise" if a warning message appears.
In the search box, search for javascript.enabled
Toggle the "javascript.enabled" preference (right-click and select "Toggle" or double-click the preference) to change the value from "false" to "true".
Click on the "Reload current page" button of the web browser to refresh the page.
1. ff 01 2. ff 02 3. ff 03 4. ff 04 5. ff 05
Opera
1. Click on Opera icon "Menu" and than "Settings".
2. Click on "Websites" and then choose "Allow all sites to run JavaScript (recommended)"
3. Click on the "Reload" button of the web browser to refresh the page.
1. opera 1 2. opera 2 3. opera 3
Apple Safari
On the web browser menu click on the "Edit" and select "Preferences".
In the "Preferences" window select the "Security" tab.
In the "Security" tab section "Web content" mark the "Enable JavaScript" checkbox.
Click on the "Reload the current page" button of the web browser to refresh the page.
1. safari 01 2. safari 02 3. safari 03 4. safari 04

Labels: Java

1 Where is the Java Control Panel on Windows?

This article applies to:
Platform(s): Windows 10, Windows 2008 Server, Windows 7, Windows 8, Windows Server 2012, Windows Vista, Windows XP
Find the Java Control Panel - Java 7 Update 40 (7u40) and later versions
Starting with Java 7 Update 40, you can find the Java Control Panel through the Windows Start menu.
Launch the Windows Start menu
Click on Programs (All Apps on Windows 10)
Find the Java program listing
Click Configure Java to launch the Java Control Panel

Find the Java Control Panel - Versions below 7u40
Windows 10
Right-click on the Start button and select the Control Panel option.
In the Windows Control Panel, click on Programs.
Click on the Java icon to open the Java Control Panel.
Windows 8
Use search to find the Control Panel
Press Windows logo key + W to open the Search charm to search settings
OR
Drag the Mouse pointer to the bottom-right corner of the screen, then click on the Search icon.
In the search box enter Java Control Panel
Click on Java icon to open the Java Control Panel.
Windows 7, Vista
Click on the Start button and then click on the Control Panel option.
In the Control Panel Search enter Java Control Panel.
Click on the Java icon to open the Java Control Panel.
Windows XP
Click on the Start button and then click on the Control Panel option.
Double click on the Java icon to open the Java Control Panel.

Java Control Panel

Alternate method of launching Java Control Panel
Click Windows Start button.
In the Start Search box, type:
Windows 32-bit OS: c:\Program Files\Java\jre7\bin\javacpl.exe
Windows 64-bit OS: c:\Program Files (x86)\Java\jre7\bin\javacpl.exe

2 How to resolve issue - Java support must be enabled in order to display FnCharts after clicking Tick Charts Shareinvestor?
Enable Java in the browser through the Java Control Panel
In the Java Control Panel, click the Security tab.
Select the option Enable Java content in the browser.
Click Apply and then OK to confirm the changes.
Restart the browser to enable the changes.

Labels: Java

1. 相对于股市投资，房产投资比较稳健。

2. 量力而行，从小的投资开始做起。老朽是从 Condo 开始的。

3. 可以拿目前房子的净资产进行买房，比如你目前住的房子。

4. 找租客的时候，尽量找能稳定租你房子的租客。房客每次搬进搬出，对房东来说都是一笔不小的开销。

5. 房屋保险，包括伞险，一定要买。相对于 LLC，这是资产保护的第一步。

Labels: Real Estate

文章来源 : 100年不过时的投资圣经 2020年03月05日 分享文章 479


这是一篇老文章，但是里面的方法却是100年不过时的绝招，可以说是价值投资者的圣经，写得如此详细，不是每个人都能看到如此好，如此深度的内容。

　　你们第一遍读到的时候可能觉得很虚，就像我第一次跟芒叔交流的时候，觉得他好虚，讲的东西都是冠冕堂皇的，结果后来我看到这篇文章后发现，他的很多思想也来源于此，这是价值投资真正的本质内容，当然这文章也是前年芒叔推荐给我看的。

　　而本文作者段永平先生是一位成功的实业家，小霸王学习机开始到步步高(8.830, 0.11, 1.26%)，包括vivo和oppo的幕后老板，上市的拼多多都有他的身影。2006年62万美金拍下巴菲特的午餐后，他与全世界最顶级的价值投资者巴菲特有了交集，所以他的思想很多也是源自巴菲特，文中有很多提到。

　　请大家耐心看完本文，一定要静下心来看，完全投入进去，会给你豁然开朗的感觉，也是对一部分人来说从此宗教般信仰价值投资，对价值投资有里程碑式的认识。

　　正文：

　　老实讲，我不知道什么人适合做投资。但我知道统计上大概80-90%进入股市的人都是赔钱的。如果算上利息的话，赔钱的比例还要高些。许多人很想做投资的原因可能是认为投资的钱比较好赚，或来的比较快。作为既有经营企业又有投资经验的人来讲，我个人认为经营企业还是要比投资容易些。

　　虽然这两者其实没有什么本质差别，但经营企业总是会在自己熟悉的领域，犯错的机会小，而投资却总是需要面临很多新的东西和不确定性，而且投资人会非常容易变成投机者，从而去冒不该冒的风险，而投机者要转化为真正的投资者则可能要长得多的时间。

　　投资与投机的区别

　　投资和投机其实是很不同的游戏，但看起来又非常像。就像在澳门，开赌场的就是投资者，而赌客就是投机者一样。赌场之所以总有源源不断的客源的原因，是因为总有赌客能赢钱，而赢钱的总是比较大声些。作为娱乐，赌点小钱无可非议，但赌身家就不对了。可我真是能见到好多在股场上赌身家的人啊。

　　以我个人的观点，其实什么人都可以做投资，只要你明白自己买的是什么，价值在哪里。投机需要的技巧可能要高很多，这是我不太懂的领域，也不打算学了，有空还是多陪陪家人或打几场高尔夫吧。

　　即使是号称很有企业经验的本人也是在经受很多挫折之后才觉得自己对投资的理解比较好了。我问过巴菲特在投资中不可以做的事情是什么，他告诉我说：不做空，不借钱，最重要的是不要做不懂的东西。这些年，我在投资里亏掉的美金数以亿计，每一笔都是违背老巴教导的情况下亏的，而赚到的大钱也都是在自己真正懂的地方赚的。

　　作为刚出道的学生，书上的东西可能知道的很多，但融到骨子里还需要吃很多亏后才行。所以，如果你马上投入投资行业，最重要的是要保守啊，别因为一个错误就再也爬不起来了。这里唯一我可以保证的是，你肯定会犯错误的。

　　我个人的理解是缺什么什么重要。投资最重要的是投在你真正懂的东西上。这句话的潜台词是投在你真正认为会赚钱的地方（公司）。我对所谓赚钱的定义是：回报比长期无风险债券高。一个人是否了解一个公司能否赚钱，和他的学历并没有必然的关系。虽然学历高的人一般学习的能力会强些，但学校并不教如何投资，因为真正懂投资的都很难在学校任教，不然投资大师就该是些教授了。不过在学校里可以学到很多最基本的东西，比如如何做财务分析等等，这些对了解投资目标会很有帮助。

　　无论学历高低，一个人总会懂些什么，而你懂的东西可能有一天会让你发现机会。我自己抓住的机会也好像和学历没什么必然的联系。

　　比如我们能在网易上赚到100多倍是因为我在做小霸王时就有了很多对游戏的理解，这种理解学校是不会教的，书上也没有，财报里也看不出来。我也曾试图告诉别人我的理解，结果发现好难。又比如我当时敢重手买GE，是因为作为企业经营者，我们跟踪GE的企业文化很多年，我从心底认为GE是家伟大的公司。

　　我说的“任何人都可以从事投资”的意思是我认为并没有一个“只有‘某种人’才可以投资”的定义。但适合投资的人的比例应该是很小的。可能是因为投资的原则太简单，而简单的东西往往是最难的吧。顺便说一句什么是“简单”的“投资”原则：当你在买一只股票时，你就是在买这家公司！简单吗？难吗？

　　我想再简单地把我目前对投资的基本理解写一下：

　　1、买股票就是买公司。所以同样价钱下买的公司是不是上市公司并没有区别，上市只是给了退出的方便而已。

　　2、公司未来现金流的折现就是公司的内在价值。买股票应该在公司股价低于其内在价值时买。至于应该是40%还是50%（安全边际）还是其他数字则完全由投资人自己的机会成本情况来决定。

　　3、未来现金流的折现不是算法，是思维方式，不要企图拿计算器去算出来。当然，拿计算器算一下也没什么。

　　4、不懂不做（能力圈）是一个人判断公司内在价值的必要前提（不是充分的）。

　　5、“护城河”是用来判断公司内在价值的一个重要手段（不是唯一的）。

　　6、企业文化是“护城河”的重要部分。很难想象一个没有很强企业文化的企业可以有个很宽的“护城河”。

　　保持平常心

　　“理性”地面对市场每天的波动，仔细地检查每一个自己的投资理由及其变化是非常重要的。好像我对投资的理解就是这么简单。但这个“简单”其实并不是太简单，事实上这个简单实际上非常难。

　　在这里有很多问题是关于估值的，所以简单谈谈自己的想法。我个人觉得如果需要计算器按半天才能算出来那么一点利润的投资还是不投的好。我认为估值就是个毛估估的东西，如果要用到计算器才能算出来的便宜就不够便宜了。

　　好像芒格也说过，从来没见巴菲特按着计算器去估值一家企业，我好像也没真正用过计算器做估值。我总是认为大致的估值主要用于判断下行的空间，定性的分析才是真正利润的来源，这也可能是价值投资里最难的东西。

　　一般而言，赚到几十倍甚至更多的股票绝不是靠估值估出来的，不然没道理投资人一开始不全盘压上（当时我要知道网易会涨160倍，我还不把他全买下来？）。

　　正是由于定性分析有很多不确定性，所以多数情况下人们往往即使看好也不敢下大注，或就算下大注也不敢全力以赴。当然，确实也有一些按按计算器就觉得很便宜的时候，比如巴菲特买的中石油，我买的万科。但这种情况往往是一些特例。

　　巴菲特确实说过伟大的公司和生意是不需要卖的，可他老人家到现在为止没卖过的公司也是极少的。另外，我觉得巴菲特说这话的潜台词是其实伟大的公司市场往往不会给一个疯狂的价钱，如果你仅仅是因为有一点点高估就卖出的话，可能会失去买回来的机会。而且，在美国，投资交的是利得税，不卖不算获利，一卖就可能要交很高的税，不合算。

　　无论什么时候卖都不要和买的成本联系起来。该卖的理由可能有很多，唯一不该用的理由就是“我已经赚钱了”。不然的话，就很容易把好不容易找到的好公司在便宜的价钱就卖了（也会在亏钱时该卖的不卖。）买的时候也一样。买的理由可以有很多，但这只股票曾经到过什么价位最好不要作为你买的理由。

　　我的判断标准就是价值。这也是我能拿住网易8-9年的道理。我最早买网易大概平均价在1块左右（相当于现在0.25），大部分卖的价钱大约在30-35（现在价）左右。在持有的这8年到9年当中，我可能每天都会被卖价所诱惑，我就是用这个道理抵抗住诱惑的（其实中间也买卖过一些，但是很小一部分。）我卖的理由是需要换GE和Yahoo。我会一直保留一些网易的股票的。

　　巴菲特的东西每一个人都可以学，当然可能只有很少人能学会。事实上，我发现只有很少人会去真正认真地学，所以能学会的人很少就很容易理解了。

　　巴菲特反对的和他做的衍生品是完全不同的东西。我自己用很多金融衍生品，和巴菲特的用法一样，所以比较理解他说得是什么。很难一句话解释清楚，但可以用个容易理解的例子来说明。很多人用衍生品就好像去赌场当赌客，希望能够快点赚钱。巴菲特用衍生品就好像在澳门开赌场，长期而言是稳赚的。不是每个人开赌场都能赚钱，但会开的人就行。也许赌场的例子不一定合适，但道理确实一样。

　　投机，我也不是没有过，但就是为好玩，justforfun，只是玩玩而已。人家要跟我讨论股票，我都要跟人说清楚，是讨论投机还是投资？是forfun还是formoney？如果forfun没有什么可讨论的，买你喜欢的就好了，反正你也不会把房子卖了扛着钱去拉斯维加斯。我曾经在邮轮上用两百块钱玩了三个晚上，赚了两千块钱。如果你作为投资的故事来讲，三天翻了十倍，这叫什么故事！但你敢拿几百万这么赌吗？不敢。所以投资是另外的讲法。

　　选择一家好的公司，拿得住

　　我从头到尾真正投资过的公司最多五六家，卖掉了一些，我持有的公司一般在三家左右。巴菲特的哈撒韦一千多亿美元市值，也才投十来家。我不怕集中，我不是一般的集中，我是绝对的集中。

　　创维和我们算是同行了，他们这个公司到底怎么样我们多少还是了解的。由于体制的因素，我个人一直认为创维是中国彩电行业里最健康的企业了。

　　虽然当时出了些事，但公司最基本的东西并没有因此改变。我们买创维时创维的市值好像还不到20亿（我不太记得了，也有说20出头的），我怎么想都觉得便宜，就买了。我们是买到差一万股到5%的时候停的，因为再买就要公告了，所以很想在公告前和黄宏生沟通一下，怕人家以为我要去抢人家那一亩三分地，呵呵。结果当时由于不太方便，最后我们就没有再买。一直到前两个礼拜才和黄老板通了个电话，道个谢，问个好啥的。

　　对创维而言，我并没有一个很清楚的到底值多少钱的概念，对他们现在的业务情况了解的也不细，所以涨上来以后就一直在陆陆续续减持，现在可能还剩不到最高持有量的20%了。我觉得现在买的人可能比我更清楚创维的价值，后面的钱应该是他们才能赚到的。

　　封仓10年是个很好的思路，选股时就该这么想。但我不知道我会不会持有苹果10年或以上。实际上我买股票时还真没有想过要拿多少年。我一般会给我买的股票定个大概的价钱，比如买GE时我就认为GE至少值20块，但我确实没想过要多少年才会到。

　　苹果所处的行业确实是个变化很快的行业。虽然我认为苹果在竞争中已经处于一个非常有利的位置，但我还是会很关切哪些变化有可能会改变苹果的地位。如果非要我给苹果定个价的话，我大概认为苹果也许某天会到600块。

　　理由是：以我的理解，苹果的盈利在两到三年内大概就可以达到每股40-50块/年（现在的盈利能力大概在每股25-6块/年），也就是说苹果的盈利能力会在两三年内接近double一下，再加上那时每股现金100多块（现在大概每股60多），给他个600的价钱应该不算太过分吧？当然，苹果也是有可能掉回到100多块的，反正到时大家就知道了。

　　今年的第一个投资的大决策就是在一月二十一号买进了苹果，把去年赚的钱都放进去了。从很久以前就开始或多或少地关心苹果，但就是没认真分析过，大概是因为自己老是满仓的缘故。1.21由于股权到期日，要释放了不少资金出来，在压力下突然想明白了。

　　买苹果的灵感其实是来自博友的提问。记得前段时间我在这用苹果举过一个什么股价叫便宜的例子：如果你觉得苹果值5000亿的话，那3000亿就是便宜，虽然他曾经只有50亿的市值。其实我个人认为，苹果有可能会是地球上第一家年利润过500亿美金利润的公司（过多少不敢说）。也许苹果会是第一家市值过万亿美金的公司（这个取决于市场会有多疯狂）。

　　说说我喜欢苹果的一些理由。这不是论文，想到就说，没有重点和先后秩序。

　　1、苹果的产品确实把用户体验或消费者导向做到极致了，对手在相当长的时间里难以超越甚至接近（对喜欢的用户而言）。

　　2、苹果的平台建立起来了，或者说生意模式或者说护城河已经形成了（光软件一年都几十亿的收入了）。

　　3、苹果单一产品的模式实际上是我们这个行业里的最高境界，以前我大概只见到任天堂做到过（sony的游戏产品类似）。

　　单一产品的模式有非常多的好处：

　　可以集中人力物力将产品做得更好。比较一下iphone系列和诺基亚系列（今年要推出40个品种）。苹果产品的单位开发成本是非常低的，但单个产品的开发费却是最高的。

　　材料成本低且质量好，大规模带来的效益。苹果的成本控制也是做到极致的，同样功能的硬件恐怕没人能达到苹果的成本。

　　渠道成本低。呵呵，不是同行的不一定能明白这话到底有什么分量（同行也未必明白），我是20年前从任天堂那里学会的。那时很多做游戏机的都喜欢做很多品种，最后下场都不太好。

　　4、苹果的营销也是做到极致了，连广告费都比同行低很多，卖的价钱却往往很好。

　　5、苹果的产品处在一个巨大并还有巨大成长的市场里。

　　智能手机市场有多大？你懂的！

　　pad市场有多大？你也会懂的。

　　总而言之，我认为苹果现在其实还处在其成长的早期，应该还有很大的空间。扣掉现金的话，苹果的今年的未来pe只有12-13倍啊，明年可能要到10以下了。当然，以上我说的这些点中的任何一点的改变都可能或多或少地改变苹果，如果有苹果的股票的话，就要留心这些变化了。我想的只有一个东西，就是未来自由现金流（的折现）。不过，要认为苹果能做到这一点并不容易，我自己也很遗憾为什么以前一直没花功夫去想一想。

　　我认为Jobs如果真请长假的话，在相当长的时间里对苹果的业务不会有大影响。长期而言，没有jobs的苹果可能会慢慢变成和别的同行一样的公司。但苹果的平台已经搭好，就像当年3大战役已经打完一样，jobs在不在影响都不大了。

　　apple还有不少特别厉害的地方，比如：品种单一，所以效率高，质量一致性好，成本低，库存好管理等等。我从做小霸王是就追求品种单一，特别知道单一的好处和难度，这个行业里明白这一点并有意识去做的不多，我们现在也根本做不到这一点。比较一下诺基亚，你就马上能明白品种单一的好处和难度了。诺基亚需要用很多品种才能做到消费者导向，而苹果用一个品种就做到了，这里面功夫差很多啊。

　　做产品和市场，往往喜欢很多品种，好处用于不同细分市场，用于上下夹攻对手的品种。坏处搞一大堆库存，品质不好控制。单一品种需要很好的功力---把产品做到极致。难啊。因为难，大部分人喜欢多品种。就跟投资一样，价值投资简单，但很不容易。做波动，往往很吸引人。

　　苹果现在手里有600亿现金，去年4季度的盈利已经过60亿了。如果苹果达到500亿以上的年利润，5000亿以上的市值是非常合理的。一万亿只是一个说法，要看苹果后续的发展情况。

　　我决定买苹果以前主要想的是他们是不是还有可能成长，有多大的空间可以成长，威胁都可能来自什么地方，等等。我不去想他现在的股价和过去的股价，尽量用平常心去看这家企业。以我的观点看，苹果年利润有一天达到800亿或更多都是有可能的，所以觉得我买的价钱还很便宜。

　　苹果的上升空间当然远不如当年的网易，可当年的网易是可遇不可求的，而且现在就算碰上了，对我的帮助也不大。苹果这样的公司难道还要去公司看？那能看到什么？我只是somehow突然想起来要认真看看苹果，以前老觉得Jobs个人太厉害了，是个报时人，后来突然想明白其实现在他已经没有那么重要了，至少在未来几年里。毕竟我们是同行，虽然差距还比较大，但有些东西容易搞懂一些。

　　巴菲特说过，他一生当中有很多次很集中，甚至达到100%。碰上一个是一个，反正赚钱也不需要有很多目标（巴菲特讲一年一个主意就够了）。有时候你感兴趣的目标会自己跳到眼前的。如果你只有一只股票，而且还是满仓的，如果你真正了解你投资的东西的话，那下跌就和你无关了。

　　没目标时钱在手里好过乱投亏钱。如果一有钱就乱投的话，早晚都会碰上个亏大钱的目标的。有合适的股票就买，没有就闲着。鸡蛋放在一个篮子里可以看得更好些。

　　其实我知道的东西少的可怜。我就知道巴菲特这条路很好，肯定可以到罗马，可老是有一堆朋友问我索罗斯那条怎么样，还不许我说我不知道。我是真的不知道。总的来讲，看准了出手就要狠。似懂非懂很难下手狠。耐心等待总是有机会的。

　　价格合理的股票不一定非买不可。我的观点是只有价格不太合理的时候才是机会啊。有时候可能会等得很难受，尤其是大牛市的时候。Buffett说过，最难的事是什么都不做。呵呵，他都觉得难，我们觉得难也就很正常了。

　　买股票当然要做定量分析，不然怎么搞？比如一个公司有净资产100亿，每年能赚10亿，这个公司大概值多少钱？大概就是你存X的钱能拿到10亿的利息（长期国债利息），再把x打6折。

　　如果买200亿长期国债的收入有10个亿/年，我会花200亿去买个年利10亿的公司吗？国债是riskfree（无风险）的，所以买公司就要打折。越觉得没谱的打折要越厉害，和我们平时的生意没区别。这大概就是巴菲特讲的marginofsafety的来源吧。长期利率会变，我一般就固定用5%。

　　企业价值是未来现金流折现。这未来的玩意有点模糊。通俗的讲，假设先不谈折现率。假设我确切的知道这个企业的未来。企业的价值=股东权益+未来20年净利润之和。然后再进行折现。大概就是这个意思吧，毛估估算下就行。这种算法其实把成长性也算在内了，如果你能看出其成长性的话（这部分有点难）。

　　若买的公司PE是10，那即使退市，每年有10%的利润（没有计算公司的增长）。利润拿来分红也好，投资也好，比国债也高多了。这样分析对不对？问题是PE是历史数据。你如果相信他未来一定有10%就可以。巴菲特买的高盛以及GE的可转换债券就是10%加option，非常好的deal。

　　我在投资里用定性分析确实比较多，这也是我和华尔街分析家们的区别，不然我怎么有机会啊，不能简单的单纯看数字，除非账面净现金多过股价了。pe=10意味着要10年才能赚回股价，如果你想买的话，你必须认为10年内的平均年利润要达到或超过现在的年利润。在我眼里看来，盛大游戏好像有点强弩之末的感觉。

　　我一般的目标是买我认为价值被低估50%或以上，价值应该是现在的净值加上未来利润总和的折现。

　　老巴成功的秘诀是他知道自己买的是什么。归根到底，买股票就是买公司。无论你看懂的是长久还是变化，只要是真懂，便宜时就是好机会。我有时也这么说：投资很简单，不懂不做。但要能搞懂企业就算看一吨的书也不一定行，投资简单但不容易！

　　我非常同意DCF（生命周期的总现金流折现）是唯一合乎逻辑的估值方法的说法，其实这就是“买股票就是买公司”的意思，不过是量化了。对投资，我想来想去，总觉得只有一样东西最简单，就是当你买一个股票时，你一定是认为你在买这家公司，你可能拿在手里10年，20年，有这种想法后就容易判断很多。

　　不懂不做。我始终没完全搞懂银行的业务的风险到底在哪儿。美国的一些大银行隔个10年8年就来一次大动荡，还没明白是怎么回事。索罗斯的东西不好学，至少像我这样的一般人很难学会。老巴的东西好学，懂的马上就懂了，不懂的看看最上面那一句话。

　　巴菲特有很多保险和金融的投资，我基本没有，因为我还不懂，总觉得不踏实。我投了一些和internet相关的公司，巴菲特没投过，因为他不懂。他认为可口可乐是人们必喝的，我认为游戏是人们必玩的。航空公司还是不碰为好。航空公司的产品难以做到差异化，没办法赚到钱，长期来讲没投资价值。这是巴菲特教我的，省了我好多钱。

　　便宜就买了。如果连老巴都不信，你还能信谁？对自己觉得真正了解的公司，很少细看报表，但了解以前会看（至少是应该看）。我一般会先了解企业文化，如果觉得不信任这家公司，就连报表都不会看的。

　　我只是做我认为我能懂的东西（以为自己懂也不一定就真懂了），有些可能也许正好是大家说的所谓科技股吧。我分不清什么是科技股。任何人要买的话必须自己明白自己在干什么，不然你睡不好觉的。其实当我说一只股票有投资价值时，最希望有人来挑战而不是跟进。我希望看到不同的观点。我投资不限于某个市场，主要取决于我是否有机会能搞懂。

　　如果A股有便宜我又了解的股票的话，我也可以买。不过现在我不太了解A股。要是那时就明白巴菲特，你就已经发达了。如果你现在还不明白，你还会失去很多机会。买一只股票往往要很多理由。不买的理由往往就一两个就够了。价值投资者买股票时总是假设如果我有足够多的钱的话我是否会把整个公司买下来。

　　有人问过芒格，如果只能用一个词来形容他们的成功？他的回答是：“rationality”（理性），呵呵，有点像我们说的平常心。问题是不用闲钱对生活会造成负面影响啊。我从来都是用闲钱的。老巴其实也是。至少你要有用闲钱的态度才可能有平常心的，不然真会睡不着觉。

　　我觉得对所谓价值投资者而言，其实没有那么考验。他们也就是没有合适的东西就不买了，有合适的再买，就和一般人逛商场一样。我想每个人逛商场时一定不会把花光身上所有钱作为目标吧。我的建议就是慢慢来。慢就是快。

　　本分我的理解就是不本分的事不做。所谓本分，其实主要指的是价值观和能力范围。赚多少钱不是我决定的，是市场给的。呵呵，谋事在人，成事在天。呵呵，如果你赚的是本分钱，你会睡得好。身体好会活的长，最后还是会赚到很多钱的。最重要的是，不本分赚钱的人其实不快乐。

　　关于市场：呵呵，再说一遍，我认为抄底是投机的概念。眼睛是盯着别人的。价值投资者眼里只看投资标的，不应该看别人。不过，作为投资人，我认为对宏观经济还是要了解的好，至少要懂一般的经济现象。

　　我个人认为大多数基金都很难真正做到价值投资，主要是因为基金的结构造成的。由于基金往往是用年来衡量考核，投资人也往往是根据其上一年的业绩来决定是否投进去。所以我们经常看到的现象是往往在最应该买股票的时候，很多基金却会在市场上狂卖，因为股东们很恐慌，要赎回。而往往股价很高时却有很多基金在狂买，因为这个时候往往有很多股东愿意投钱进来。基金大部分是收年费的，有钱时总想干点啥，不然股东可能会有意见。

　　不要想去赌场赢钱，但开个赌场赚钱还是可以的。我卖puts和他做的事情是一样投机是会上瘾的，不好改。这个是芒格说的。巴菲特早就不看图看线了。看图看线很容易错失机会的。其实每个人都有机会学习巴菲特，不过大部分人都拒绝而已，唉。

　　绝大多数人是不会改的。再说，这个做法也不一定就亏钱，亏的是机会成本，所以不容易明白。我见过做趋势很厉害的人，做了几十年，但依然还是“小资金”。用芒格的“逆向思维”想一下，你也许就对“趋势”没那么感兴趣了。其实投机比投资难学多了，但投机刺激，好玩，所以大多数人还是喜欢投机。

　　我认为一个人认为自己可以战胜指数的时候，他可能已经失去平常心了。我觉得好的价值投资者心中是不去比的。但结果往往是好的价值投资者会最后战胜指数。在任何地方投资真的都一样的，你不认真了解你投的是什么都会很麻烦。价值投资只管便宜与否，不管别人的想法，找自己懂的好公司，别的不要太关心。希腊发生的事和大家有点8杆子打不着吧？

　　我也不知道啥时候卖好。反正不便宜时就可以卖了，如果你的钱有更好的去处的话。顺便讲一句，我个人认为抄底是投机的概念（没有褒贬的意思），价值投资者不应该寻求抄底。抄底是在看别人，而价值投资者只管在足够便宜的时候出手（不管别人怎么看）。

　　对我而言，如果一只股我抄底了，往往利润反而少，因为反弹时往往下不了手，所以容易失去机会。最典型的例子就是当年买万科时我们就正好抄到底了，郁闷啊（其实没那么郁闷，总比亏钱好），买的量远远少于我们的原计划。

　　对大盘的判断很简单。如果你有足够的钱把所有股票买下来，然后赚所有上市公司赚的钱，如果你觉得合适，那这个大盘就不贵，不然就贵了。（这里还没算交易费呢）分不分红和是否有投资价值无关。如果你认为公司每股收益可以长期高过长期国债利率，这个公司当然就可能成为投资目标。投不投取决于有没有更好的目标。

　　实际上，我买的时候是不考虑是不是有人从我手里买的。我要假设如果这不是个上市企业这个价钱我还买不买。你如果明白这点了，价值投资的最基本的概念就有了，反之亦然。不能单靠PE去推测公司未来的收益，不然会中招的。举个例子，GM（通用汽车）的PE一直都很低（以前老在5倍左右），但债务很高，结果破产了。你如果能想想一个非上市公司是否有价值（或价值是否能体现）可能就能明白你想问的问题。

　　宁要模糊的精确，也不要精确的模糊，呵呵，真是老巴说的？还是老巴说得清楚啊！我觉得这就是毛估估的意思。很多人的估值就有点精确的模糊的意思。毛估估。意思就是5分钟就能算明白的东西，一定要够便宜。我只有一个标准，就是自己觉得便宜才买。比方说我认为ge值20，我可能到15才开始买一点，但到10块以下就下手重很多了。重仓买到便宜股票是多少要些运气的。天天盯住股市时好像会比较难做到。

　　找到被低估的公司本身是一件很难的事。我做投资最基本的概念就是来自马克恩的“价格是围绕价值上下波动”。价值就是这家企业TheWholeLife能够赚的钱折现到今天，价格就是现在市场表现出来的那个过高或者过低的玩意儿。怎么去评估一家企业是否被低估，团队我认为当然是重要的，还要看你这个公司有没有很好的文化，一个企业真正的核心竞争力就是企业文化。

　　所以我买公司的时候，我有一个很大的鉴别因素就是，这家公司的行为跟华尔街对他的影响有多大的关联度？如果关联度越大，我买他的机会就越低。华尔街没什么错，华尔街永远是对的，它永远代表不同人的想法。但是你要自己知道自己在干什么，你如果自己没了主见，你要听华尔街的，你就乱了。

　　我的逻辑就是巴菲特的逻辑，原则上没有什么差异。差异是他熟悉的行业不等于是我熟悉的行业，所以他投的股票不等于是我要投的。去年他投了一家公司，我看了半天都没有看懂，果然，他投了以后，那支股票可能涨了50%、60%。人家问我是否着急，我说不着急。为什么？因为这不是我能赚到的钱。

　　反过来讲，比如我投网易这样的公司，这也不是他能够赚得到钱。再比如Google，巴菲特也没买。因为他对这个生意不了解，不了解没有赚到钱是正常的，没有什么好后悔的。如果你不了解也敢投，第一你也守不了那么久，80块买的，可能100块、120块也就卖了，其实你也赚不了钱；其次如果你四处这么做，可能早就亏光了。正因为没有在自己不熟悉的行业和企业身上赚到钱，说明你犯的错误少。

　　我的很多成功的投资，好象行业根本不搭界，但是对我来说是相关的，就是因为我能够搞懂它，知道管理层是否在胡说八道，企业是否有一个好的机制，竞争对手是否比他强很多，三五年内他会胜出对手的地方在哪里……无非就是这些东西。看懂了，你就投。

　　比如我也曾赚过松下股票的钱，7块钱买的，涨到20多块卖了，放了大概有两三年的时间。就是因为我是做这行，我做企业的很多理念来自于松下，我也拜访过他们公司，也知道他们的缺点和优点，觉得这个公司不可能再低于7块了，而20块让我觉得可买可不买、可卖可不卖。所以，你作的投资都是跟你过去的经历有很大的关系，你能搞懂的东西有很大的关系。你的判断跟市场主流判断没有关系，两者可能有很大的时间差。我判断的是它的未来，而市场是要等企业情况好了才会把价格体现出来。

　　成长率对我来说没有任何意义。投资的定义在我来讲就是拥有一家公司的部分或者全部，最简单的概念就是“拥有”。假设某家公司去年每股赚一块，今年赚两块钱，成长率百分之百，有人说明年可能还会再涨。后年呢？后年不知道。你如果是你自己的钱，把这家公司买下来，你会买吗？你说只要后面有人买我的股票，你就会买。这就叫投机。

　　对于投资和投机的区别，我有一个最简单的衡量办法，我没注意到是否巴菲特也这么讲过，就是以现在这样的价格，这家公司如果不是一个上市公司你还买不买？如果你决定还买，这就叫投资；如果非上市公司你就不买了，这就叫投机。

　　就像我当时买网易我为什么能够在那个价格买到（那么多量），因为NASDAQ有个规定，一块钱以下的股票超过多少时间就会下市，所以很多人害怕下市，就把股票卖出来。在一块钱以下就卖了。因为他们怕下市。你知道我为什么不怕呢？这就是我投资的道理。我买它跟它上不上市无关，它价格低于价值我就会买。步步高就没有上过市，但我因此就把公司卖了，这没道理啊，很荒唐，你说我创立公司后只是因为它不上市就卖了，那我开公司干嘛？

　　我自己懂一些基本财务常识，觉得大致够用。本分即自然，道法自然。克制不了自己的人如果不玩游戏也会玩别的的。借钱是危险的，没人知道市场到底有多疯狂（向下或向上）。我记得巴菲特说过类似这样的话：如果你不了解投资的话，你不应该借钱。如果你了解投资的话，你不需要借钱。反正你早晚都会有钱的。

　　投资不需要勇气，也就是说当你需要勇气时你就危险了。老巴的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！做空有无限风险，一次错误就可能致命。而且，长期而言，做空是肯定不对的，因为大市一定是向上的。价值投资者是会犯错误的。做空犯错的机会可能只有一次，只要你做空，总会有一次犯错的，何苦呢？

　　其实每个人都多少知道自己能做什么，但往往不知道自己不该做什么。如果每个人把自己干过的不应该干的事情不干的话，结果的差异会大大超出一般人的想象。可以看看芒格讲的如何赚20000亿美金的例子。芒格也许真的心里素质好，传说曾经因为用margin两年内亏掉大部分身价（大概70年代的时候）。所以有了只需要富一次的说法。芒格大概可以算富过一次半的人了。

　　危机大概5-8年来一次，希望下一次来的时候你记得来这里看一眼，然后擦擦冷汗，然后把能投进去的钱全投进去。千万别借钱哦，因为没人知道市场疯狂起来到底有多疯狂。

　　巴菲特追求的是产品很难发生变化的公司，所以他买了后就可以长久持有。但他也说过，如果你能看懂变化，你将会赚到大钱。他说他花了很长的时间才学会付高一点的价格去买未来成长性好的公司，据说芒格帮了很大的忙。

　　我们也不负债。负债的好处是可以发展快些。不负债的好处是可以活得长些。反正你借不借钱一生当中都会失去无穷机会的，但借钱可能会让你再也没机会了。

　　在理解的安全边际内，如果还有钱，当然可以再买。要注意的是，加码和想买的人多了（股价涨了）没关系，只和价值和机会成本有关。我认为Buffett花钱买BNI好过把钱放在长期国债上。BNI有很好的现金流及一定的成长和大片的地产，长期而言年回报应该能超过8%。

　　找到优秀的管理者和企业文化

　　我非常在乎企业管理层的人品！刚刚进他们网站看了一眼。居然一家中国公司没有中文网站，好像是给投资人设计的。另外，也没找到任何有关企业文化的描述。由于我不太懂这个行业，前面两点看完我就不会再往下看了。我可能又失去了一个赚钱的机会。一般而言，太把“华尔街”当回事的公司我都很小心。

　　好企业在哪儿的经营理念都是很相近的。美国急功近利的公司也很多，中国公司也不都是急功近利。我本人很多年前就很反对没事加班加点的。我一直认为老是强迫加班加点的部门的头的管理水平有问题，老是强迫加班加点的公司的老板的管理水平有问题，呵呵。

　　我终于找到巴菲特说的傻瓜能经营的企业的说法，其实是Peter林奇说的，巴菲特在讲话时引用过，为的是说明巴菲特投资时还是要买信得过的管理层。江湖传言好厉害啊。

　　头几年到处讲讲没啥坏处，企业文化是要不停的宣讲才能慢慢深入到大家的骨髓里的。当年尼克松好像讲过类似的话。现在好像马云出来的机会已经少多了。有好的企业文化的公司往往应变能力要强很多。

　　我们小时候不敢愤青啊！能愤青就是社会的大进步。你要觉得随和吃亏那可就说明你骨子里不是随和的人，世界上哪里都一样，最后成事的人都还是正直的人。这也是我喜欢GE的原因。GE的integrity是在所有东西之上的。

　　我记得去上中欧的第一天，前院长张国华训话里讲过一个故事。他说有个著名商学院（我不记得名字了）曾经做过一个调查，想知道非常成功的人都有什么共同特性，结果发现什么特性的人都有，但他们唯一共有的特点就是integrity。

　　阿里文化不如步步高文化的地方是，阿里要成为最大，步步高要本分。一百年老店不意味着他就一定活到101年。这就像不能用pe去预测明年的利润一样。雷曼好像就有150多年的历史。但你只要注意到雷曼后期的企业文化都变成什么样了的话，你就不会对他们的结局感到惊奇。

　　把“企业文化”真正印到企业上上下下的干部的骨子里又是一项艰难的工作了。韦尔奇的《赢》里讲了不少GE是怎么做的阿里巴巴这方面做得非常好。这是一项几十年或更长的工作，应该和企业的寿命一样长，是一项重要但往往不那么紧迫，常常被人忽略的工作。

　　巴菲特的意思是，如果生意模式好的话，庸才都不怕（老巴自己是很看重管理层的），出入总是有的。我在公司里是个反对派，几乎做什么我都会提反对意见。如果连我的反对意见大家都不怕时，做什么我都会放心一些。

　　我最怕的就是当老板说什么大家都说“好”。那时公司就危险了。当然，这里的前提是我认为我们同事很多都在许多方面比我强。如果认为自己是公司里最聪明的人的“老板”是很难认同我这个观点的。

　　其实是不是第一没有那么重要，因为消费者在买东西时一般并不在乎谁是第一，他们在乎的是买的东西是什么（消费者导向）。我记得当年我们买万科时就有人问过我，说万一万科假账怎么办。我说，以我认识的王石而言，他绝不是会关在房间里和财务商量个假账来蒙股东的人。其实那时和王石不熟，现在也不算熟，就是直觉而已。

　　从做实业与投资是有很大差别的，做事情就是要做对的事情，从做对的事情的角度来看，首先你要确定你做的是一件对的事情，再就是做对一件事情还要看你的能力，但能力可以通过学习来提高。无论是做实业还是做投资要想取得成功的基本法则是做事情不求快，但关键是找到对的事情，把它坚持下去。发现错，马上就改。比如，有的事情现在有钱赚，但本身是错的，那你就得马上改，如果不改，那你赚的越多最后损失也越大。

　　广告是效率导向的，就是把产品本身用尽可能高的效率传达给你的目标消费群。最不好的广告就是夸大其词的广告，靠这种广告的公司最后都不会有好下场，因为消费者长期来讲是个极聪明的群体。广告能影响的消费者大概只有20%左右，其余全靠产品本身。

　　营销对公司来讲只能锦上添花，千万别夸大其作用。怎么打广告我认为主要取决于你的目标消费群在哪里。其实瞄得最准的广告大概就是搜索类的广告了，阿里巴巴这方面好像现在也挺厉害的。

　　本分和最大本身并没有任何矛盾！事实上，我们公司做的产品大部分最后都是国内“最大”的，只不过我们罕有提起而已。我们不提的原因是认为这不是我们用户关心的东西，但这往往是我们关心用户而产生的自然结果。

　　我个人认为，追求最大确实有点问题，因为他是一个结果而不是一个方向，而且有可能和核心价值观产生矛盾（比如有时可能不符合用户导向等）。不过，阿里巴巴作为公司还比较新，等他真到了第一以后才能明白我说的问题何在，那时再改也来得及。

　　“敢为人后”的经典例子很多：苹果的iPod算是吧（之前mp3早就满大街了）？iPhone算是吧（手机不用说了）？Xbox算是吧（之前有任天堂，PlayStation等等）？Playstation算是吧（之前有任天堂，世家等）？微软的几乎所有产品，国内的例子就不举了，太多了，相信你仔细想想就能明白了。（有多少人真明白了？）

　　品牌溢价我觉得是一种误解。品牌只是物有所值而已。当一个品牌想当然认为其有溢价时，会很容易犯错误，大多数人买有品牌的东西时肯定不是冲着“溢价”去的。所谓品牌其实就是某种（些）差异化的浓缩。早年我开的车就是属于特别便宜的车，觉得都是代步，没必要多花钱。后来偶尔有一次试了一下“好车”，第二天就去买了一部，因为发现确实差别好大。

　　我们认为消费者是理性的意思是从长期来看的，套用一句俗语叫“童叟无欺”。也就是说无论消费者眼前是否理性，我们都一定要认为他们是理性的。不然的话，你经营企业就可能会有投机行为，甚至会有不道德行为。

　　卖股票和成本无关，不知道当时的pe，也不知道什么是pb，想的就只有所谓未来现金流的概念（连折现都好像没算过）。只有能看懂公司和生意才能做到这一点。一般买股票时会有个基本判断，就是最少值多少钱（有点像巴菲特评中石油），到了以后应该看看到底应该是多少钱。

　　这些年有经验也有教训。以前网易每一次到目标后我都认真重新评估一次，不然不会拿了8年多，正好一个抗战。万科到了基本价以后就没有重新评估就卖了，少赚了很多。股票掉的时候也是一个动力去重新评估自己持有的股票，看看买的理由是不是有变化（比如买过UNG，认真看过后发现买错了，就斩仓了，不然的话，留到今天要多亏几千万。）

　　一般来讲，“市场形势”很好时，大概就是卖股票的时候了。不过，如果真是特别好的公司，稍微贵一点未必应该卖，不然往往买不回来，机会成本大。我不知道老巴是怎么判断的，但我判断的是一般来讲，当我买一只股票时，一定会有个买的理由，同时也要看到负面的东西。当买的理由消失了或重要的负面东西增加到我不能接受的时候，我就会离场。太贵了有时会成为离场的理由。如果所有的理由不变而只有价格掉到10%的话，当然是个好机会。但如果理由发生巨变的时候，也许有可能是要离场的。

　　我也不是很理解他这话是啥意思。我猜他大概是认为没有人会真的出个夸张的价格的吧？我觉得如果有人出个Google的价格买步步高的话我就说服全体股东卖给他了。不过我还没出过价呢。有一次在BUffett的brunch上有人问过我类似的问题：有人问我如果巴菲特要买你公司你卖吗？我说我不卖，因为价格高了对不起巴菲特，低了对不起我们股东。

　　卖的都是因为对公司还不够了解。买的时候认为至少值得价钱，到了以后应该很认真地再研究一下。创维我们赚到不错利润的原因是因为不太好卖涨的还挺快。现在吸取教训，开始好好研究一下GE和Yahoo，看看是不是可以永远持有的股票。（YHOO换了新的CEO后其实风险增加了，我自己的策略还是继续卖option，但不会增加投入，实际上是慢慢在减少YHOO）

　　当时还在想的就是可能买银行的机会到了。可惜对银行业务不太懂，下不了重手。下次如果有机会再和老巴吃饭，一定专门请教这类问题，怎么才能搞懂银行和保险公司。老巴当年好像就是谁指点了下就明白了。

　　有时买之前花得多时间，有时买后还要花很多时间，尤其是当目标的已经达到基本目标价以后，对其价值的判断还是挺重要的。比如，我对网易后来的发展就花了很多时间，不然没可能大部分拿到120-140倍才卖。我认真研究了网易，发现它股价在0.8美元的时候，公司还有每股2块多的现金，当然面临一个官司，也可能被摘牌，这里面有些不确定性，这就需要多做一些咨询。就官司的问题，我咨询了一些法律界人士，问类似的官司最可能的结果是什么，得到的结论是，后果不会很严重，因为他们的错误不是特别离谱。很重要的是，这家公司在运营上没有大问题。做足功课后，我基本上把我能动用的钱全部动用了，去买它的股票。敢大量买入网易的股票最重要的是对企业花了足够的工夫，对公司、产品都有深刻了解。

　　我在美国买了一家做租车业务的公司，当时它的股价跌到了5美元，我花了半年时间去调查研究，发现这家公司股票每股净资产有50多美元。我算了一笔账，就算把净资产打5折，还有25美元，最后我们买了100多万股，这只股票最高到过100多美元。

　　能够取得投资成功在于对巴菲特的理解，更在于坚持执行巴菲特的理念。“0.8美元买网易股票的不单是我一个人，但坚持持有到100美元的就不多，所以发现价值有时候要靠运气。”

　　投资不在乎失掉一个机会，而是千万不要抓错一个机会。在投资的对象价值大于价格时出手，这不叫大胆，而是理性。花5元钱去买10元的东西，能说是大胆吗？很多人在这个时候缺乏的是理性，而不是胆量。

　　投资就是找到一个最好的公司，然后把你的钱投入进去。既然你认为最好，不把钱投到这样的公司里，而把钱投到不好的公司里，在逻辑上就是错乱的。投机和投资很大区别就是：你是在动用大笔钱还是小笔钱；其二，当股价下跌时，投机和投资的态度正好相反，投资者看到股价下跌，往往很开心，因为还有机会可以买到更便宜的东西，而投机者想的是这公司肯定是出什么事情了，赶紧走人。

　　问巴菲特如果他买的股票一路买一路涨怎么办？如果买的股票下跌的话，还可以找到钱再去买，但后来它涨上去了，这样你就买不到更多了。他甚至认为投资的时候买到底部是一个很糟糕的事情。“你买到底部后，股价就会一路买一路涨，这样你就买不到最多的量。”真正的投资者，其实是希望，在允许的价值波动范围内，在股票一路下跌的时候一路跟着买进，也只有这样才能拿到更多更便宜的筹码。

Labels: Investment Quote, Value Investing

进入2020年之后，世界就开始不太平，中美好了40年，以前是床前吵，床后合，白天闹，晚上好，跟大多数家庭一样，可是现在不同了，中美要各过各的，那么世界的日子还会跟以前一样么？

如果美国的经济慢慢地不再增长，失业率开始上升，那么房地产会如何表现呢？或许不会向08年那次危机严重，但也不能不房，未雨绸缪，还是要的。



1.拥有高于当地平均价的出租屋或豪华屋

因为房子大，什么都高，一旦失业率高，很难租出去，同时也难卖掉，因为银行查封的房子也多，所以这一类房子风险最大，所谓漂亮的房子不下蛋，就是这个道理。在房地产危机的时候，公寓风险最低，因为公寓是人的最低住房需求，有个地方睡觉，其次是尺寸小的独立屋，联体别墅等。

2. 高贷款比例的投资人

比如你有10 套投资屋，全是贷款，一旦失业率上来，租金收不上来，又不好租，空置时间长，但银行贷款一分不少，还要还，就有可以仅靠租金支付不了贷款的局面。一般来说，要严格控制贷款的比例，才能对抗风险，但很多人认为要贷款才能提高房地产的投资回报率，这没错，关键是什么时候，如果在2011-2015这几年才是明智之举。

3. 晚进场的投资人

如果你的房子买的时候早，价格很低，租金多少都不很重要，空置也不怕，但如果你是这两年才进场的人，买的价格可能是人家的一倍以上，那你如何跟人家竞争？你手上房子越多，风险越大，一不小心，买在了最高点，这是最大的威胁。

4.收入不是很稳定的家庭

一般来说，医生，护士，或跟医疗有关的职业，或者是律师，保险，政府，与经济循环不太相关的行业相对比较稳定。我们多数人是工程师或这其他高科技工作，一旦没有了工作，问题就非常可怕，以前也出过人命案，是非常惨痛的悲剧。

5. 行业单一的地区

比如，有的地区靠石油，有的地方靠赌博，有的地方靠汽车，一旦这个行业不行了，整个城市也就没有好的了，你再有本事，资金多也没有用。房地产的区域性是很强的，关掉一个几千人的工厂，一个小城市就完了。

如果不小心，你把以上五条都摊上了，你不是运气不好，而是没有运气。如果你一条都没有，那你一定不是人，而是神-房神（Landlord).

Labels: Real Estate

再说几句良好卫生习惯
来源: GoGym 于 2020-02-25 18:30:16 [档案] [博客]

1. 勤洗手， 勤洗手， 勤洗手! 我是一天洗N次的，每次出门回家第一件事就是洗手。怕坏皮肤可以不用soap, 就用水冲的物理效果， 但要前后左右仔细搓，特别是虎口，手侧，手指间， 要至少二十秒。

2. 尽量不要手碰口鼻危险三角区， 比如抠鼻子之类

3. 自己咳嗽要用手弯捂或扯过领子遮口，别人咳嗽赶紧别过头走开，用手臂遮一下面部。避免和人太近

4. 家里最脏的一般是厨房，特别是抹布， 海绵和水池，充满细菌。我不用抹布，一般都用一次性wipe，或者paper towels 加409 cleaner。Wipe 也用来时时擦拭各种表面。 海绵我每天用洗碗机时顺便也洗， 加高温消毒。厨房水池每天至少用SOAP擦拭冲洗一次。

5. 每次上完卫生间，我会用擦手的手纸垫着门把手开关门

6. 家里放一大瓶 Hand sanitizer,车里和手袋里都有一小瓶hand sanitizer, 随时用

7. 手机和电脑键盘鼠标也每天酒精擦拭

。。。。

大家还有什么补充的？

这些习惯平时养成的, 不管有没有武冠

Labels: Health

From Wenxuecity

说明：
1. 本文只讨论如何热死还没有进入人体内的病毒这个话题，其他任何预防措施和医治手段不是本文要探讨的。
2. 现在所有宣传预防新型冠状病毒的方法只强调洗手，戴口罩。我完全赞成勤洗手，戴口罩，但不能忽略已经在人体面颊，额头，眉毛，胡子，眼睛周围，鼻子周围，嘴巴周围，耳朵上，头发上，衣服上的病毒，以及人体容易接触到的各种物体上的病毒，如门把，马桶口，凳子，拎包，背包 等等，甚至宠物身体上的病毒。如果不事先杀死或清除上面讲的方方面面的病毒，就是每天洗手100次，还是很有可能感染病毒的，因为当洗过的手碰到上面讲的人体表面和物体表面已经存在的病毒时，洗过的手又污染了，等于没洗。这就是当前预防新型冠状病毒最最最大的漏洞，本文的目的就是补这个漏洞。

一．科学依据和经验：
1. 中国著名的李兰娟院士表示，新型冠状病毒对外界抵抗力不强，处于56摄氏度的环境中30分钟既会死亡。
2.有报道说，将家里的暖气开到25摄氏度以上，也能起到抑制这种病毒的作用。
3. 以往经验告诉我们，冬天天气寒冷，冠状病毒, 感冒病毒猖獗，到了夏天这类病毒消失得无影无踪。
以上3点充分说明这类病毒怕热，那就想办法在没有侵入人体以前热死它。

二． 三个绝招
（注：必须全部看完以下文章才可以使用这三个绝招，否则出现的任何不适或意外责任自负 ）


第一招：

用电吹风准确吹面颊，额头，眉毛，胡子，鼻子周围，嘴巴周围，眼睛周围和人体容易接触到的各种物体。每个家庭几乎都有电吹风，电吹风的风是干热风，而且一般的电吹风吹出来的风，温度都在摄氏56度以上，我自己试了一下我家的电吹风, 与温度计保持12英寸距离，开最高档温度可以达到摄氏85度以上，这么高的温度，病毒非死即伤，而且几乎没有成本，所以我觉得我们应该试一下。有人也许会说，这么高的温度吹在脸上怎么受得了，首先我没有教你直接吹在脸上。第二大家每天都在用电吹风，都没有发生问题。第三电焊枪的温度高达数千度，电焊工人按照工作手册近距离干活，没有听到有重大事故发生。因此严格按照我讲的注意事项和操作方法去做，一样不会有问题的。
准确使用电吹风吹面颊，额头，鼻子，嘴巴，眼睛，眉毛，胡子的方法：
1）严格彻底清洁电吹风。
2）严格彻底消毒自己的双手，有条件的带上一次性手套。如果全家合用电吹风，更应该带上一次性手套，使用后用消毒液清洗电吹风把柄，才可以给下一位亲人使用。
3）在电吹风吹脸部时，应注意以下几点：
A.使用时必须不断晃动电吹风。
B.由于电吹风的功率有大有小，使用前，先将电吹风的口对准另一只手保持18英寸或46厘米以上距离试验一下，看看多少距离最适合。为保险起见，本人建议在吹脸部时，如果有延伸罩的，必须保持16英寸以上，如果没有延伸罩的，必须保持20英寸以上，因距离太近引起的任何不适或意外，本人不负任何法律责任。
C.鼻子和耳朵用棉花球塞住，并用头巾或干毛巾将左右脸包住。毛巾不够长的话，可以用其中一只手抓住毛巾的两端。
D.电吹风与正面脸部必须形成90度角度，即用右手拿着电吹风从脸的右侧吹向脸的前方，让热气流的余波散发到脸部的某一区域，不可将热气流直接吹在脸上；或者用左手拿着电吹风从脸的左侧吹向脸的前方，同样不要将热气流直接吹在脸上，并不断变换位置。绝对不可正面吹。
E.在吹风时，必须弊气，嘴巴紧闭，眼睛紧闭，一方面防止高温热气流进入人体器官，更重要的是防止将病毒吹进嘴巴和眼睛里。
F.每次从脸的侧面吹风不得超过30秒，停下来用嘴巴吸几口气再吹。整个吹风时间自己决定，但不要超过15分钟，因为大部分的电吹风吹出来的温度都在摄氏56度以上，极有可能在15分钟以内已杀死新型冠状病毒。如果脸部很热受不了，减少吹风时间，延长脸部和吹风机的距离。
G.吹风的地方最好在洗澡房，将浴池门或门帘打开一半，电吹风对准浴池，将可能在你脸上的病毒吹到浴池中，然后清洗浴池，将病毒冲洗入下水道。
H.吹风完成后，右手行军礼状，大拇指压着右鼻孔，左鼻孔对准洗手池呼气，然后左手行军礼状，大拇指压着左鼻孔，右鼻孔对准洗手池呼气。最后用洗面奶或温水清洁脸部。
I.18岁以下未成年人，有支气管炎的人，体弱多病的人，精神有问题的人不适合本方法。

为便于网友记忆简单归纳一下：晃动吹风机，鼻子耳朵用棉花球塞住并包住脸部，间隔16到 20英寸以上，左右侧吹向脸部前方，嘴巴眼睛紧闭并弊气，每次30秒以下，全程不超过15分钟，在洗澡房，左右鼻孔轮流呼气，温水洗脸，部分人不适合本方法。以上注意事项，缺一不可，如违反其中一项而引起任何不适或意外，责任自负，本人不负任何法律责任。
4）用电吹风吹帽子，鞋子，手套，背包，拎包，凳子，现金，共用的笔以及花名册等等人体容易接触到的各种物体，这些物体由于各种原因也有可能存在新型冠状病毒，戴上口罩，护目镜吹一阵子心里踏实多了。这个比较安全容易，不展开谈了。

第二招：

用电熨斗烫各种上衣，裤子，外套，还有编织帽，袜子等。电熨斗的温度远远超过电吹风的温度。电熨斗温度分好几档，化纤类的最低，麻布最高，棉布第二高。如果你一定要出门，穿棉布外套，回家后，将电熨斗调到棉布档，来回烫一阵子，那么高的温度这个病毒死得更快。

第三招

用烘干机烘衣服，帽子，鞋子等衣物。烘干机的温度也是超过56摄氏度的。凡是可以放烘干机烘的衣物全部烘一遍，将所有新型冠状病毒全部杀死。 注：A. 羊毛衫不可以烘的，B. 时间控制好。

只有将你身上（尤其是脸上），你经常接触的物体上，甚至你家的宠物上可能存在的新型冠状病毒杀死掉或清除掉，才能使你洗过的手再也不会碰到这种病毒，才能达到几乎100% 的预防效果。

360度无死角抗击新型冠状病毒是我们每个人应尽的义务，为了自己，也为了他人，赶快行动起来，每个人出一点力，就会形成一股巨大的力量，只有这样，灾情才会提早结束。

Labels: Health

by 高云堂2019年3月



一 能买就买，能不卖就不卖，孟母三迁不如狡兔三窟。

二 能买小的就不买大的，投资的房子面积越小租金回报越好。

三 能贷款就贷款，尤其是利率低的时候，财务杠杆是房地产投资必须的，会显著地提高

投资回报率。

四 能在好区买就在好区买，绝对不能在高犯罪率地区买，危邦不入，乱邦不居。

五 能早买就早买，房地产价值平均来说是逐年上升的，买的越早，价格应该越低。

六 租金要尽可能支付所有费用，正的现金流是非常重要的。

七 能买风险低的房地产类别，就不买风险高的。投资风险依次增加：住宅，购物中心，

办公大楼，厂房，土地）

八 尽量在房地产上升期买，不在衰退初期买。

九 在一个小区内，买面积小，价格低的，不买大的，贵的。

十 不买豪华屋，豪华屋出租，需求少，空置率高，既然付得起高額的租金，那人家为什

么不自己买。

十一 能独资就独资，不合伙，自己完全拥有，人与人之间的烦恼远远多于房子的烦恼。

没钱就不买，等有钱了再买也不迟，房子是永远买不完的。

十二 能低买就低买而不是高卖，低买高卖是理想，低买平卖是现实。

十三 擅于利用房地产投资的财务工具：Cash out, Hard money,用别人的钱来投资是房

地产投资的最高境界。房地产投资的渠道五花八门，Wholesale, Flip,Foreclosure,

Auction, Lien sale, Tax sale , Estate sale 等等，精于这些门道的投资人往往可以获

得很高的投资回报。

十四 房价上涨的幅度远远高于租金上涨的幅度，房子的增值是投资房地产的最重要目

标，现金流其次。

十五 房子价格越高，租客越多，因为买不起房子只能租而不是相反，所以，房地产投资

在房地产价格高的地方越活跃，这也是为什么大家都在发达的大城市投资房地产

的原因。

十六 房子持有越久，效果越明显，贷款本金越来越少，租金越来越高，增值越来越大。

要有耐心，不要遇到一点挫折就卖房，或者频繁折腾，卖出买进，中长期持有才是

硬道理，抗战还需八年，何况投资房地产。

十七 筛选房客是房地产投资的关键因素之一，筛选房客不是要找信用分数高的而是拒绝

可能的坏房客。

十八 避开学生类短期房客，以劳苦大众的家庭为主，减少房客的流动性才能确保房地

产投资的盈利性，同时尽量不分租。

十九 房客租的越久越好而不是房租越高越好，每次换房客大约要花费3-4个月的租金。

二十 能不Eviction(驱逐房客） 就不Eviction， 人生无定时，天灾人祸，房客有难，能

帮就帮，实在帮不了，再去法院也不迟。

二十一 德州是保护房东利益最好的州之一。因为共和党执政，Eviction(驱逐房客）程序

简单， 每月开庭两次。Writ of Possession(法警强制驱逐）快速，费用低廉。

二十二 房客押金能退就退，能多退就多退，不要做恶房东，好合好散，不好合也要好

散，房东是万金之躯，不要和房客同处在一个道德底线。

二十二 做一个好房东，良好的心态是必要的，钱，尤其是几十，几百元根本不是问题，

凡是能用钱解决的都不是问题，多数问题就出在几十，几百上。

二十三 知彼比知己还重要，熟悉各种联邦，州，市，HOA的法律和规范，不要不懂装懂

,更不要乱来，你希望房客不乱来，首先你先不乱来。

二十四 八十年前底特律，四十年前洛杉矶，四十年后达拉斯。

二十五 房地产是积累财富的最好途径之一。

对于广大的中产阶级，房地产投资是可行的，容易操作，几乎家家户户都可以做

得到，实现从无产阶级，中产阶级到有产阶级，地产阶级到资产阶级的华丽转

变。

Labels: Real Estate

1. 普通牙刷换成电动牙刷：电动牙刷刷的特别干净，尤其是后面的槽牙。刚开始刷时还有牙龈出血，后来就没了，牙龈健康了不少。另外我普通牙刷和电动的交替使用。有人每天多次刷牙，我一天也就一次，不过吃完饭后漱口。

2. 用漱口液：ADT，Listerin （有两种交替使用），每次刷完牙后就用它们来漱口。一大瓶才10刀左右，便宜划算。

3. 轻叩齿：有时感到牙齿松动，就轻轻的叩齿，把牙齿对咬一下，效果不错。比如晚上睡前或醒来后，其他什么时间也可以。但是不要叩的太狠，容易产生裂缝。

4. 吃硬一点的东西：比如说生胡萝卜丝。正根胡萝卜不建议去啃，因为有可能把牙齿咬裂（split）。这对牙齿有很好的锻炼作用。但是也要避免太硬太脆的东西。

5. 吃甜点后尽快去刷牙。有时我吃甜食一段时间后感到牙疼，多刷几次就不疼了。

6. 不能吃冰的东西，然后再突然吃热的东西，温差太大了不行。应该避免冰块和冰水，吃东西应该和自己口腔温度大致相同。

7. 用牙线：Plackers Dental Floss 不错，很好用。

Labels: Health

　　熊市信号“扛把子”：衰退与泡沫

　　在可以印证美股正走向衰退的各大信号和先行指标中，可靠度最高的两个无疑是经济衰退和股市估值泡沫。

　　关于全球经济衰退的讨论，从数月之前便开始不断发酵，华尔街各大投行和分析师显然对全球经济前景感到担忧。“末日博士”鲁比尼率先大开金口，指出了明年全球经济衰退的10个潜在下行风险，其中包括新兴市场债务危机、全球贸易局势等。

　　华尔街著名投资分析师科隆博（Jesse Colombo）在一份分析报告中指出，即将到来的经济衰退可能远比大多数经济学家预期的更加严重。这一点可以从持续倒挂的美债收益率、纽约联储衰退概率模型、领先经济指标、芝加哥联储国家经济活动指数、密歇根大学消费者信心指数和美国失业率等一系列数据和指标中得到体现。

　　事实上，不止美国，综合考量欧元区6月ZEW经济景气指数、德国6月ZEW经济景气指数等重要数据后，美银美林指出：自2008年全球金融危机以来，投资者从未表现过如此悲观的情绪。

　　经济衰退对股市意味着什么，相信不用多说各位投资者都应该了然于心。如果说投资者的反应总是要慢半拍的话，那么各顶级投行和专业对冲基金的迅速行动，就能让外界更清楚地窥探资本流向和风险偏好。

　　根据美银美林在本月早些时候的调查，基金经理在5月份的股票配置已下跌32个百分点至21%，相对应地，债券配置规模上升至2011年9月以来的最高点。

　　而美银美林每月更新的全球基金经理调查显示，6月份接受调查的230名基金经理中，做多美国国债首次成为华尔街最热门交易，取代了做多美国科技股在上一月度的榜首位置。此外，调查还显示，基金经理的股市投资利润预期大跌40%，创下该调查创立23年来的最大单月跌幅，而且有近41%的投资者认为明年美股收益状况会持续恶化。

　　除此之外，描述对冲基金对股票信心的标普500贝塔指数正在测试2003年以来的低点——2.3%，与此同时美国股票的风险敞口正处于28个月低位。最新的CFTC数据显示，杠杆基金也坚定看空股市。

　　再说估值问题，科隆博指出，美股之所以能迎来史上最长牛市，很大程度上是依靠高企的债务进行支撑。科隆博在其报告中详细剖析了美股估值的严重膨胀程度，得益于美联储的刺激性政策，美国股市自2009年的低点已经上涨了300%。

　　科隆博认为，从股市目前的膨胀程度来看，在明年陷入熊市的可能性相当之高。科隆博表示：

　　“美联储在过去10年对美国股市的激进刺激导致股市的涨幅高于其基本收益，这意味着目前市场估值过高。每当市场被极度高估时，市场再次跌至更合理的估值只是时间问题。美国股市目前的估值膨胀程度几乎与1929年如出一辙，而1929年之后发生了什么，相信就不用再多赘述了。”

　　细节决定命运！六大被遗忘指标隐藏更多危机

　　除了经济衰退和巨大的估值泡沫之外，许多对股市产生直接或间接影响的经济指标也发出了预警信号，而这可能正是投资者们忽略的重要信息。从下列六个指标来看，美股进入熊市的时间不仅比市场预期的要早，持续的时期可能也要更长。

　　首先，KEJ Financial Advisors主席Jonathan Heller指出，美国股市的强弱分化变得愈发明显。数据显示，第二季度迄今罗素2000指数下跌约1%，罗素微型股指数下跌约2.6%，股市上出现明显的向优质资产转移现象。这意味着投资者对股市等风险资产的信任度正在降低，避险情绪仍主导市场行为。

　　其次，从技术面来看，美国股市的走势似乎有些超前了。短期技术指标显示，市场经历了从极度超卖状态到极度超买的剧烈逆转，目前的价格比200日均线高出6%以上。从短线投资的角度看，分析师认为投资者最好等待一个修正过程，至少等美股回到200日均线水平，然后再承担额外的股票风险。

　　而从长期走势的角度看，股市的剧烈震荡表明，美股如今的涨势已经逐渐背离基本面，任何一件风险事件都将导致大量卖盘的出现。换句话说，投资者情绪已被股市之外的因素主导。

　　第三点，上周公布的最新保证金债务数据显示，杠杆投资者仍在减持。过去半个多世纪，保证金债务水平的下降一直伴随着着股市大跌出现。目前，保证金债务正以每年15%的速度下降，从历史经验来看，这一低到令人发指的水平，意味着标普500指数将出现最高达20%的暴跌。

　　此外，一个关于股市走势的重要先行指标——企业盈利，也发出了不利信号。在2017年和2018年录得接近20%的年化增长率后，美国企业在今年第一季度遇到了瓶颈，盈利增长仅录得1.5%。华尔街分析人士认为，当企业盈利在未来几个季度出现持续萎缩时，基本就可以断定美股的衰退已近在咫尺了。

　　至于为什么会有这个推断？这就跟本轮史上最长牛市的头号功臣——企业回购，有很大关系了。

　　下一个需要关注的，是华尔街顶级投行——高盛制定的美股监测指标。周五，高盛策略师在一份报告中发出警告：用来衡量标准普尔500指数下行风险的活动指标（CAI）出现异动，股市再次出现衰退10%的预警信号，这是本轮牛市周期中难得一见的场景。通过该行的标普熊市监测模型进行测算，未来12个月市场崩溃的风险现在已经接近60%，是自全球金融危机（当时达到了90%）以来的最高水平。

　　高盛同时解释了，为什么市场会忽视企业失衡加剧的风险，仍在持续买入股票。高盛认为，经过5月份的小幅回落后，6月份美联储展示出的强烈鸽派气息暂时稳定了投资者情绪。但显然，这种情况不会持续，美联储在7月份的利率决议和政策声明中一旦传递出任何与市场预期不符的信息，股市崩盘就会在顷刻间到来。

　　最后，瑞银集团提醒投资者不要被一些表面现象蒙蔽双眼，比如恐慌指数VIX近期走势可能会给投资者带来一些误导，需要仔细分析才能看出个中端倪。

　　观察发现，恐慌指数VIX近期走势曲线显示，除了顶端高位外，该指数曲线变化较小，每一点的倾斜率都远低于平均水平。瑞银表示，这并非意味着投资者已对股市重拾热情，恐慌指数VIX的走势受美联储上周放鸽影响更大；另一方面，在下周还有ISM制造业和大小非农等重磅数据出炉的情况下，投资者可能观望状态。

　　最后一招也要失灵：回购无法再支撑市场

　　正如上文所言，企业回购，尤其是减税法案生效后美国科技股企业的大规模回购行动，是本轮美股牛市的强大支撑。

　　数据显示，美国排名前10位的科技公司（Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、思科、Facebook、英特尔、国际商业机器公司、微软、甲骨文和高通公司）在2018年花费超过1690亿美元回购其股票，较减税前一年激增55%，创下历史新高。通过创历史的大规模回购，股票价值和企业盈利都得到支撑，在全球经济逐渐见顶的情况下，守住了美股最后的繁荣。

　　不过，随着企业盈利出现瓶颈，这一个股市的良性循环即将被打破。

　　分析师预计，截至2020年年中，标普企业整体上都不会再次出现“盈利衰退”现象，企业也将努力维持目前的股票回购力度，这为企业盈利和股票价格提供了稳定支撑。从数据来看，标普500强企业目前的预期市盈率达到了17倍左右，高于15至16倍的历史平均水平。

　　但是从长期趋势上看，与2018年相比，2019年企业盈利预期走势平缓，这表明盈利长期增幅非常有限，显然无法为处于历史高点的股市估值提供支持。

　　另一方面，花旗首席全球股票策略师巴克兰德（Robert Buckland）也指出，虽然在科技巨头持续大规模规模的情况下，标普500强股票回购规模持续高企，但全球股市实质上正在缩水，公开股票市场的流动性动能正在枯竭。

　　因为从数据来看，股市的繁荣几乎完全是由企业回购撑起的，投资者面对史上最长牛市依然显得犹豫不决，这等于削弱了股票公开市场的作用和地位。巴克兰德指出了这一现象背后的巨大危害：

　　“企业用来回购和并购其他企业的资金，其实都原本可以用于资本支出、研发和改善就业的。因此，这种支持股价的操作和以投资推动经济增长的长期目标是存在矛盾的。”

　　也就是说，现阶段股市繁荣不是靠经济发展推动，而且企业将大量资金用于回购还将成为阻碍经济上行，影响资本支出的因素。当股市发展与经济运行规律脱轨，虚假的繁荣，自然不会令投资者放心了。

　　结语：这场危机，没有救世主

　　综合以上分析，相信各位投资者对美股的目前的危险处境已经有了充分的了解，而众多投行、基金和投资大鳄，也早已做好应对准备。

　　艾略特管理公司（Elliott Management）创始人辛格（Paul Singer）在阿斯彭创意节（Aspen Ideas Festival）上发表讲话时警告称，全球经济正走向严重低迷时期，而根据以往经验，在经济衰退的过程中金融体系总是受到最大冲击。辛格表示：

　　“全球金融体系在很大程度上正走向风险的一端，面对全球债务空前高涨、衍生品空前高涨等不利局面，除了货币政策，我不认为央行决策者还有更好的方式来调控这失衡的局势。然而不幸的是，货币政策也正在失效。”

　　关于美联储降息能否拯救市场这个话题，在过去一段时间已经涌现了大量分析，可结论都令人失望。以2001年和2008年的危机为例，标普500指数都在降息后的12个月内下跌超过15%。而如今，美联储地位更不如从前，可以提供的支撑自然更加有限了。

　　总而言之，这场属于股市的危机，没有救世主，即将到来的市场震荡，或将成为投资者的噩梦。

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一般在市场末期会出现加速上涨，成交量放大，这叫做回光返照。到达顶部后会出现拉锯战，这就是为什么顶部通常是圆型。这种拉锯战是因为坚定做牛的人以往抄底赚了很多钱，认为这次和以往一样，只不过是短期下跌。所以在熊市刚开始他们会buy any dip，信誓旦旦说再跌再抄。 这些人往往是牛市中刚加入的新手，所谓出生牛犊不怕虎，并且会嘲笑那些老手挣得还没有他们多。当然抄底钱总会用光的， 所以熊市中期会出现急剧下跌，因为接盘侠银子用光了。再后来就会知道自己错了，买在了高点。那些小小的dip比起熊市的跌幅是小巫见大巫。

大家都知道2018年上半年房子特别好卖，交易量放大，并且房价上涨很快。这些都符合顶部特征。接下来一段时间会出现拉锯战，但希望大家不要被下跌后的短暂上涨迷惑，那是反弹不是反转。

By Dr Tee Tong Yan

Latest Singapore Car COE for Cat A (Nov 2018) is $25000, falling from nearly $100000 over the past 6 years till now. Many people wonder if it is possible to get COE at $50 or even $1 again.

I review the last year Ein55 Graduate Homework (Nov 2017) in application of Optimism on Singapore Car COE, here are the 5 lessons which can be learned and extended to stock investing.

1) Trend of long term car COE is up, indicating COE has become an asset (although limited lifetime of 10 years) or commodity which has value.

- Similar to investing, even for giant stocks which could grow in share price over the decade, they may not be suitable for everyone, only for longer term investors. A key difference is stock value could remain or stronger after 10 years but Singapore Car COE would drop to value of $0.

2) Optimism has been declining over the past 6 years, COE price trends have been bearish in short term and medium term. Over the past few years, each time COE shows a record lower price since the peak of $100000, potential buyers would get attracted to buy car but get disappointed later as price continue to drop further the next year.

- Similar to investment, even for long term value investing stocks, their share prices could fall in short to medium terms. Therefore, integration of trading into investing is crucial, avoiding buy low get lower. More importantly, an investor should know the fair value of a stock, buying at a low optimism price.

3) Few people is able to buy at $1 historical low price of Car COE as usually it happens during global financial crisis when most people are fearful with limited cash or purchasing power. The timing of next possible $1 Car COE price depends on when will be the next global financial crisis and also the degree of low optimism.

- Similar to stock investment, we don't have to guess when a crisis would come. Instead, we just wait for the low prices come to us. When the great sales of global stocks (global financial crisis) has come, one needs to prepare in advance, eg. selling stocks at high optimism first, converting to cash, waiting patiently for prices to drop below value again, more precisely, a low optimism price. This way, we don't have to speculate on future happening, depend on known facts of value and prices available now to make a high probability decision: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting.

4) In general, Car COE Category A < $10,000 could be considered low Optimism price, any lower price (eg. $1 to $9999) is just a bonus. Value is what you get (10 years COE) and price is what you pay. Therefore, for 2 different car buyers, one may buy COE at $10000 while another one may be lucky to get at $1, but both will be happy, $10000 buyer may not think "losing" of $9999 when comparing with lucky case of $1.

- Similar to stock investing, investors should not speculate to buy at the lowest price as it is nearly impossible to know (reverse is also true, to sell at the highest price). Instead, we should apply Optimism to know when to buy low enough, when to sell high enough, which is more reliable from probability point of view. Some stock investors who acquires stocks at high value (eg. high quality assets of property or cash), they may still feel "lose" money when share prices fall down. One should train to view value and price as if buying a handbag at 2 different sales, one could be 50% sales, another one could be 70% sales, both are bargains, no need to buy at the best sales which no one would know exactly.

5) For car owners with COE expiring soon, there is an option to renew with 5 or 10 years extended COE (at the current rate of $25000), using the next 5 or 10 years to wait for the next global financial crisis, if it happens 2 years later, just sell back the remaining years of COE (eg. 3 or 8 years) at the original price of $25000, buying a new car with lower optimism COE price (eg. less than $10000 for Category A), "earning" from the difference.

- The strategy above is similar to shorting in stock trading, sell high buy low. Although there is no shorting in Car COE, this is a strategy as car owners may not able to wait for a period of time without car to buy car at low optimism price. However, it is possible for stock investors to keep 100% cash, waiting for the next global financial crisis to buy low safely with 10 global giant stocks, assuming one has the holding power through the winter time of stock market.

(To be updated)

Date MSCI World Index dropped 50% Date S&P500 dropped 50% Date STI dropped 50% Date Sector Index dropped 50% Date Stock dropped 50% Stock dropped % when S&P500 dropped 50% Stock dropped % when STI dropped 50% Stock dropped % when Sector Index dropped 50% Indexes Rose % Stock Rose %


Ascendas Reit

Entry: about 1.30 on 15 Nov 2008
Why: Entry can be initiated only after all related indexes and the candidate stock dropped by more than 50%: SP500 dropped by 50% on 14 Nov 2008, STI dropped by 50% on 13 Oct 2008, Reit index dropped by 50% on 17 Sep 2008, Ascendas Reit itself dropped by 50% on 30 Sep 2008. SP500 was the last required index that dropped by 50% on 14 Nov 2008, so one could buy Ascendas Reit for allocated amount (100%) on 15 Nov 2008.

Note one cannot buy the stock immediately after the stock dropped by 50% alone. In this case, Ascendas Reit continued dropping another 2 months while waiting for SP500 dropping by 50%! Must wait all indexes dropped by 50%!

Exit: about 2.70 on 06 Feb 2013 or use trailing stop after sector index Reit index rose by 200% on 05 Feb 2013.
Why:

Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) market cycles provided 4 major opportunities in the past 31 years from 1987 to 2018.

Assume you got USD1m, your money was trippled to USD3m in the first opportunity; USD9m in the 2nd; USD27m in the 3rd; USD81m in the 4th!

Assume you got another 4 opportunities in the coming 31 years, what will happen?

What will happen if you use a margin of 300% in each opportunity?

So my friend, do not worry too much. Even if you got USD100k only now, you could have USD8.1m after 31 years!

Long Term Investment Strategy:

Buy the bluest stocks at 100% of planned amount after STI drops by 50% from high; buy another 50% with margin after STI drops by 60%; buy another 25% with margin after STI drops by 70%.

All of following conditions must be met before long term buying.

MSCI World Market Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient world wide)

S&P 500 dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure US drop is significant and sufficient thus does not affect other countries especially the country you are in)

STI Index dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient country wide thus does not affect the sector you are in)

Sector Index of the stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient sector wide thus does not affect the stocks you are in)

Stock dropped by more than 50%; (To make sure the drop is significant and sufficient)

Check past 30 to 50 years of chart history of the candidate stocks (usually coming from the national stock index component companies) and select those stocks that rose the most in percentage (much much more than the index growth) in every bull market from the bear market bottom; (To makke sure you are able to outperform the index)

Target price: rising by at least 200% from the bear market bottom. (This is the minimum target, do not consider profit taking before this price)

Labels: Back Test, Charts, Historical Teachings, History, Margin, plan, STI ETF, Stock Trading System, Thoughts, Value Investing, Warren Buffett

By Jesse Livermore

Born in 1877, Jesse Livermore is possibly the most famous trader in history.

He started trading at the age of 14 from bucket shops. His tape reading skill was so good that these bucket shops eventually didn’t want to do business with him.

At his peak in 1929, he was worth $100 million. Ultimately, he lost his entire fortune when he broke his trading rules.

The same trading rules which made him millions, caused him to lose everything when he lost control of himself.

Still, there are valuable lessons to be learned from Jesse Livermore’s trading experience.

Jesse Livermore’s 25 Trading Lessons
1. Watch the market leaders.

Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market.

That is where the action is and where the money is to be made. As the leaders go, so goes the entire market.

If you cannot make money in the leaders, you are not going to make money in the stock market. Watching the leaders keeps your universe of stocks limited, focused, and more easily controlled.

2. Markets are driven by humans and human nature never changes.

There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation.

What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly build into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.

All through time, people have basically acted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. This is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.

I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans — and human nature never changes.

3. Markets are never wrong but opinions often are.

The market will often go contrary to what speculators have predicted.

At these times, successful speculators must abandon their predictions and follow the action of the market. Prudent speculators never argue with the tape.

Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are. Remember, the market is designed to fool most of the people most of the time.

4. It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

They say you never go broke taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

I did precisely the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.

The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight.

After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

5. You can win on a stock, but you cannot beat Wall Street all the time.

First, do not be invested in the market all the time.

There are many times when I have been completely in cash, especially when I was unsure of the direction of the market and waiting for a confirmation of the next move.

Second, it is the change in the major trend that hurts most speculators.

Always remember; you can win a horse race, but you can’t beat the races. You can win on a stock, but you cannot beat Wall Street all the time. Nobody can.

There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.

No man can have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily– or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.

Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap the benefits from their mistakes.

6. It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do.

7. Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle.

8. I believe that the public wants to be led, to be instructed, to be told what to do.

They want reassurance. They will always move en masse, a mob, a herd, a group because people want the safety of human company.

They are afraid to stand alone because they want to be safely included within the herd, not to be the lone calf standing on the desolate, dangerous, wolf-patrolled prairie of contrary opinion.

9. I believe that having the discipline to follow your rules is essential.

Without specific, clear, and tested rules, speculators do not have any real chance of success. Why?

Because speculators without a plan are like a general without a strategy, and therefore without an actionable battle plan.

Speculators without a single clear plan can only act and react, act and react, to the slings and arrows of stock market misfortune, until they are defeated.

10. If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far.

If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.

11. Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.

12. I never argue with the tape.

When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish.

But you find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks. I do not allow my possessions – or my prepossessions either – to do any thinking for me. That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape.

13. Not taking the loss — that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.

Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.

14. I trade on my own information and follow my own methods.

15. Trade along the path of least resistance.

If after a long steady rise a stock turns and gradually begins to go down, with only occasional small rallies, it is obvious that the line of least resistance has changed from upward to downward.

Such being the case why should anyone ask for explanations? There are probably very good reasons why it should go down.

16. I don’t buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.

When I’m bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale.

When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.

17. Don’t be fooled by the charisma of other traders.

It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urging of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.

18. Know yourself.

A man must know himself thoroughly if he is going to make a good job out of trading in the speculative markets.

19. Fear and greed are your greatest enemies

When the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day – and you lose more than you should, have you not listened to hope.

And when the market goes your way, you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit and you get out – too soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts.

20. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme.

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.

21. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct.

Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

22. Never average losses.

It is foolhardy to make a second trade if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.

23. The trend is your friend.

Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend.

24. Always trade with a stop loss.

When you make a trade, “you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade.

25. Don’t try to play the market all the time.

Every once in a while, you must go to cash, take a break, take a vacation. Don’t try to play the market all the time. It can’t be done, too tough on the emotions.

Labels: Investment Quote

The one day reversal pattern was defined by the well-known trader Jesse Livermore, who considers it a strong signal. As the name implies this pattern is used on day charts.

A one day reversal long pattern occurs when the low of the candle is lower than the low of the previous candle, but the close of the candle is above the close of the previous candle. A one day reversal short pattern occurs when the high of the candle is higher than the high of the previous candle, but the close of the candle is below the close of the previous candle.

Jesse Livermore often used the volume indicator (only available for exchange traded instruments) as confirmation. When a one day reversal pattern occurs, the order volume corresponding to the signal candle must be higher than the previous day's order volume.

This example shows both a short sell signal and a buy signal. Jesse Livermore would reject the short sell signal because the volume corresponding to the signal candle is lower than the previous day's volume.

Credit: Rayner Teo

Richard Dennis was a Systematic Trend Follower who trades the Futures market (during the 70s and 80s)

His rise to fame came when he was featured in Market Wizards as he took a $400 trading account and turned it into $200 million.

He is also the founder of the Turtle Traders (which came from a bet he made with his partner to determine if trading can be taught, or not).

And yes, he won the bet that trading can be taught.

However, not all stories have a happy ending.

According to sources, Richard Dennis’s hedge fund suffered huge drawdown (in excess of 50%) due to aggressive risk management, and he eventually shut it down.

However, there are valuable lessons you can learn from Richard Dennis — which are still applicable today.

And I want to share them with you right now…



1. Whatever method you use to enter trades, the most critical thing is that if there is a major trend, your approach should assure that you get in that trend.
If you think about it…

Breakouts are the only entries that will ensure you’ll catch every single trend — every single time.

And that’s why most Systematic Trend Followers trade breakouts as their entry method.

You might be wondering:

“But what about pullbacks?”

I know pullbacks are psychologically easier to execute because you’re buying low and selling higher.

But it comes with a price — and that’s missing the entire trend because the market didn’t offer a pullback.

So if you want to be involved in every trend that comes along, then you must trade breakouts.

2. A good trend following system will keep you in the market until there is evidence that the trend has changed.
Here’s a fact:

There’s no way to predict how high the market will go.

So, the next best thing you can do is trail your stop loss as the market moves in your favor.

However, you don’t want to have a tight trailing stop loss as you’ll get stopped out on the retracement.

Instead…

Widen your trailing stop loss to accommodate the deep retracement that might occur — and you have the best chance of riding a trend.

And chances are if you get stopped out, it’s because the trend has reversed.

Pro Tip:

You can use indicators like Moving Average or the Average True Range to trail your stop loss.

3. When you have a position, you put it on for a reason, and you’ve got to keep it until the reason no longer exists.
This is the opposite of what most traders do — and it HURTS them big time.

Here’s why…

Most of you tell me you want to ride big trends.

And it’s no secret that the KEY to riding massive trends is to trail your stop loss (I covered that earlier).

However…

You have difficulty holding on to your gains because…

You see profits.

You see green.

You see money.

BUT…

You have the FEAR of losing those gains.

So, you exit your trade even though the market hasn’t hit your exit signal.

The end result?

Big losses and small winners.

So here’s the lesson:

If you want to be a consistently profitable trader, you must follow your rules and exit your trades ONLY when the reason no longer exists.

4. You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the extreme. Don’t think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do.
Look at the chart below:



You’re probably thinking:

“Insane! The price is so high. I’m sure the market is about to reverse lower.”

And here’s what happens next…



BOOM!

The market exploded even higher.

I know it’s hard to believe the market can just continue to make new highs especially when it looks “overbought”.

So the lesson is this:

You can never tell if the market is too high to buy or too low to short.

Because what’s high can go higher and what’s lower can go lower.

5. If there is any lesson I have learned in the nearly twenty years that I’ve been in this business, it is that the unexpected and the impossible happen every now and then.
If you saw the earlier Bitcoin example, you might think that such “extreme” moves rarely occurs.

Wrong!

Here are more examples…







Now don’t get me wrong.

You shouldn’t expect these moves every week or month.

But chances are, you can find these trends once every few years (and they can last for YEARS).

The bottom line is this…

If you have the discipline to ride your winners, it’ll be a matter of time before you catch one of these “monsters”.

6. Trading decisions should be made as unemotionally as possible.
If you trade based on emotions:

You’ll buy at the highs when things are moving “fast”, hold onto your losses hoping they will rebound, trade larger hoping to make back what you’ve lost, and etc.

Clearly, you know that trading based on emotions is a recipe for disaster,

Instead, you’ve got to think, act, and trade like a machine!

Now the question is, how?

Here are a few tips to get you started…

Develop a trading plan with clearly defined buy & sell rules
Risk not more than 1% of your capital on each trade
Focus on executing your trading plan consistently (this is so important)
Don’t get swayed but the short-term results, think long-term
If you want to learn more, then go check out this trading guide: How to be a Consistently Profitable Trader within the Next 180 days.

7. Trade small because that’s when you are as bad as you are ever going to be. Learn from your mistakes.
Let me ask you…

If you want to be a brain surgeon, will you immediately operate on a live human brain?

Of course not!

You’ll probably start off practicing on a “dummy” brain.

As you get better, you’ll work on a live human but only on a minor segment of it (so it doesn’t cause danger to the person).

Then as you level up, you’ll work on the major parts and finally, you have the confidence to do it on your own.

And it’s the same for trading!

You want to trade small because you’ll make mistakes — plenty of it.

So, why pay more in “tuition fees” to Mr. Market when you can do so at a fraction of the cost?

8. I could trade without knowing the name of the market.
You’re probably wondering:

“How is that possible?”

Well, that’s because you’re trading the price in front of you without concerning where the price is derived from.

It could be Soybean, Crude Oil, Copper, Rubber, or Cotton, who cares.

The only thing that matter is price, and nothing else.

Because the price is moved by an imbalance of buying & selling pressure which is based on emotions like fear, greed, hope, and regret.

These emotions or biases can last for a long time which in turn becomes a trend — something Trend Followers can capitalize on.

And that’s why you don’t need to know the name of the market.

All you need to know is…

Buy what’s going up
Sell what’s going down
Repeat
9. In the real world, it is not too wise to have your stop where everyone else has their stop.
Let me ask you…

Do you always get stopped out only to watch the market reverse back in your intended direction?

Because you put your stop loss where everyone else puts it (like below Support) — which creates an incentive for the “smart money” to hunt your stop loss.

So, how can you avoid it?

By setting your stop loss AWAY from the obvious market structure.

This means don’t place your stop loss smack under Support, or just above Resistance.

I cover in more details here: How to Avoid Stop Hunting While Other Traders Get Stopped Out

10. You could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.
This is true for 99% of traders out there.

Most would not have the conviction to take someone’s trading rules and trade it consistently even though its profitable in the long-run.

Why?

Because when the drawdown comes (which all systems will have), they will abandon it and look for the next trading system — and rinse repeat this cycle again.

So, the question is…

How can you gain the confidence in your trading strategy or even someone’s trading system?

There are 2 ways you can go about it…

1. Backtest the trading strategy

This allows you to understand how a trading strategy performs historically.

If it’s proven to work in the past, there’s a possibility it could continue to work in the future (although no guarantee since it could be curve fitted).

2. Understand the logic behind WHY a trading strategy works

Most trading strategy that works have an underlying logic behind it.

For example:

Trend Following works because human biases and emotions cause the market to trend.

So, if a trader can cut his losses and ride his winners, he can capitalize on the long-term trend that comes about.

Or how about Value Investing?

It works because investors dump stock during “bad news” and that pushes the price of the underlying security below its intrinsic value.

This allows savvy investors to buy low (below the intrinsic value), and sell high (when the price increase back towards the intrinsic value).

11. There are lots more false breakouts, perhaps because there are more computer-based trend followers.
Here’s the deal:

Not all breakouts will work out.

In fact, half or more of your breakout trades are likely to fail.

However, it doesn’t mean trading breakouts is a losing strategy, far from it.

Remember, it’s not how often you win that’s important.

It’s how much you win when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong — that’s what matters.

Also…

If you want to increase your odds of capturing a trend, you must trade across different markets.

This includes Forex, Indices, Energy, Metals, Agriculture, and etc.

If you want to learn more, then go read The Ultimate Guide to Trend Following.

12. It is misleading to focus on short-term results.
I’ll tell you this:

Your short-term results are random.

Because when you’re dealing with probabilities, anything is possible in the short run.

It’s only in the long run (after a large sample size of trades) that your results will align towards its expectancy.

Don’t believe me?

Then let me prove this to you…

Look at the performance of this trading system over the last 5 months…



Now, most of you would say this performance is crap and you’ll likely abandon this system after few losing months.

Now, look at this trading system below…



This looks like a much better system, right?

But guess what?

This is the same EXACT system as the one above.

The only difference is I’ve shared with you the results over the last 18 years instead of the 5 last months.

Do you see my point now?

In the short run your trading results are random but eventually, it’ll align towards it’s expected value.

13. You have to minimize your losses and try to preserve capital for those very few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time. What you can’t afford to do is throw away your capital on suboptimal trades.
Here’s the deal:

No matter which trading strategy you’re using, there will come a time where trading is so easy and it feels like you’re “printing” money.

But don’t be too happy just yet because…

There are also times where it sucks so bad you feel there’s no light at the end of the tunnel — and you just want to quit trading altogether.

So…

The “trick” is to minimize the damage during the bad times so you can survive and THRIVE during the good times.

This means:

Have proper risk management in every trade
No revenge trading even if you’re angry with the markets
No over trading hoping you can make your losses back quickly
Follow your trading system no matter how hard it is to pull the trigger
If you can do it, then you’ll likely overcome your drawdown and reach new equity high again.

14. I learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.
There are 2 ways to look at this…

If you’re a discretionary trader, then yes, it makes sense to put some time between your loss and the next trade (especially if you have sustained a series of losses).

Because as a discretionary trader, your trading decisions are based on your analysis of the markets.

If you are carrying emotional baggage, you won’t objectively analyze the markets which lead to sub-optimal trading decisions.

However, if you’re a systems trader, then things are different.

Because the more losses you face, the closer you’ll be towards your next winning trade.

So, if you have a proven system that works, the last thing you’d want to do is to skip your trades because you have the fear of losing.

Instead, you must trade your system consistently so you don’t “mess up” the results of it.

15. Trading has taught me not to take the conventional wisdom for granted. What money I made in trading is a testimony to the fact that the majority is wrong a lot of the time.
The reason why most traders fail is because they want to be spoon fed.

They don’t want to put in the hard work to find out what works and what don’t.

They trust what “gurus” say instead of spending time and effort to figure things out themselves.

Now, is it no wonder that most traders never make it?

So here’s the deal:

If you want to succeed in this business, you must TEST everything.

Trust nothing but question EVERYTHING.

If you’re unsure, backtest it, forward test it, and use your brain to think about it!

16. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people.
You’re probably thinking:

“What? I could never come up with a profitable trading strategy.”

Here’s the deal…

Trend Following isn’t a difficult concept.

It’s basically…

Trade a broad basket of markets
Ride your winners
Cut your losses
And that’s it!

How difficult can it be to come up with a set of trading rules based on the above criteria?

Still, I’m going to spoon feed you further.

Go read the book Following the Trend by Andreas Clenow.

This book provides you with the exact strategy and markets to trade — so there’s no excuse anymore.

But please do your own backtesting first before trading it live.

Now…

The difficult part isn’t formulating the strategy but the execution of it — especially when the drawdown comes.

Will you be able to execute your trades consistently when you’re down 10%, 20%, or even 40% of your trading capital?

17. I’ve learned that markets, which are often just mad crowds, are often irrational; when emotionally overwrought, they’re almost always wrong.
After many years of trading, the one thing I’ve learned is to NOT trade with the crowd.

For example:



Back in 2017, Bitcoin was making new highs with a lot of attention from the media and the public.

To an astute trader, it’s a warning sign that the “party” is about to end.

Now, I don’t expect you to short Bitcoin because the market could continue to trend higher.

However, if you’re long, then you should tighten your stop loss and be prepared to BAIL OUT the moment the market show signs of reversal.

Because when the whole world has already bought, who’s left to buy?

Nobody.

And if there’s no one left to buy, the path of least resistance is DOWN.

Here’s a quote by Warren Buffet that says it best…

“Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”

Conclusion
The wisdom shared by Richard Dennis is still as applicable as they were decades ago.

Now, some of you might argue that Richard Dennis strategy doesn’t work anymore.

Well, the exact parameters he used to trade might not work anymore.

But the principles of Trend Following still works and is currently used by some of the biggest hedge funds in the world (like Winton Capital).

So, don’t get caught up by the specific tactics but look at the big picture and understand the concepts behind it.

Labels: Investment Quote

Credit: Rayner Teo

Who are these million dollar traders?
It is very well known that trading in the market has a high failure rate. However, the traders who have made it can go on to become very wealthy and successful. Imagine if all of us could learn from veterans in any field and drastically reduce the time to be good and not suffer some devastating lessons along the way.

Unfortunately, us humans are a complicated bunch. Most of us would rather suffer and learn the hard way ourselves than to follow the advice of the wiser. Don’t be too hard on yourself though because learning from our mistakes is part of the journey.


These millionaire traders have stood the test of time and learned some harsh lessons. An unfortunate but necessary step in anyone’s path to profitability.

The list of traders range from millionaire day traders to option traders. Some of these top traders:

Mark Minervini
Ed Seykota
Nathan Michaud
Marty Schwartz
Jesse Livermore
Richard Dennis
Paul Tudor Jones
William O Neill
David Ryan
Larry Hite
Some of you reading this are struggling to become consistent. Read through these lessons and really try and take away something from them. You will notice that the advice given is from traders old and new.

The same lessons are applicable today as they were in the past. So that leads me nicely on to the first lesson.



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1. Wall Street Never Changes Because Human Nature Never Changes
A great lesson from top trader Jesse Livermore. Some of you might think that ‘it’s different in the markets nowadays‘ or trading was easier back then. While the rise of HFT’s may have caused some new problems for the average trader, fundamentally the principles remain the same.

The stock market never changes. Why? Because human nature doesn’t change. We are all fearful, greedy and emotional. (some more than others) and this is what causes us to lose money.



How many times have you been up nicely on a trade? Then decided you wanted to make more money and moved your exit point to a more ambitious target.

This is just one example of greed in place. We’ve all done it. And yes it’s bloody annoying ! But our human nature can get in the way.

Human nature means the patterns in the markets are repeatable over time. That lesson was given over 100 years ago and it is still well and truly relevant today.

Ask yourself, Do I allow my human nature to get in the way of my trading decisions?

If the answer is an absolute yes, then you have your first problem to work on! Again, it’s human nature. We all suffer from it in some form or another. The trick is being able to control it.



2. Being Wrong Is Acceptable, But Staying Wrong Is Unacceptable
Here’s a very important lesson from Mark Minervini. It really illustrates the importance of risk management. Every one of us will have losing trades. It’s part of any trading system.

The important thing is we cut our losses short. If we don’t and continue to stay wrong, we could run the risk of going broke. This is one of the most important yet basic lesson in this list.



Don’t let trades get out of hand. Accept you are wrong and move on. Unfortunately, it take some a few very large losses to learn this lesson. If you can loss small while you are learning to trade, you’ll have cash available for when things start to get consistent.



3.Investment Psychology Is By Far The More Important Element, Followed By Risk Control.
A great lesson by Tom Basso. If you’re completely new to trading, this might be lost on you. But very the rest of us, it’s important to remember how much psychology plays a major role in our trading decisions.

Feeling anxious to pull the trigger, betting too big, whatever the problem, these issues are all psychological. They are something that must be controlled. many of us, (myself included in the beginning) don’t understand the importance of psychology in trading.

I would love to be a stone cold emotionless trader but the truth is that it’s an ongoing struggle to remain fully emotionless.

How can you work on psychology and get better? Well, check out this trading psychology post for assistance. This took me years to master and even today I sometimes find myself angry over a mistake I made etc.

So don’t be too hard on yourself. It takes time but always understand that psychology is so very important and you should always be aware of how you feel and your overall emotions when trading.



4. Even A Poor Trading System Could Make Money With Good Money Management
While this can be a controversial lesson, there are some key points to take away from it. Alright, I get it. Some of you will say if the system is poor than you’ll lose money and that may very well be the case.

But the point here isn’t the trading system. It’s about money management. So many of us go from one strategy to another.

Why? Because we try to find the holy grail.

The truth is there’s no holy grail. And if a poor system could make us profitable with good money management, wouldn’t it be better to focus on the money management side of things as opposed to finding the perfect strategy?

Have a look at the equity drawdown graph below and what it would take to make back the money you’ve lost.

millionaire traders



Could you make 400% and come back from a 75% drawdown on equity? These figures are eye opening. Managing risk should always be the number 1 priority.

5. Find A Trading Style That Suits Your Personality
So what is this lesson all about? Well, let’s take an example. If I’m naturally lacking patience, do you think I would make a great position trader? I don’t think so. My personality would be at odds with my strategy and I would find it very tough to have the discipline to follow the strategy.

The same goes for you. Find a trading style that suits your personality. This article on finding the right trading style may be of assistance.



If you find the right style, you’ll find it much easier to remained disciplined during the inevitable drawdown period every strategy goes through.



6. If Most Traders Would Learn To Sit On Their Hands 50 Percent Of The Time, They Would Make A Lot More Money
A lesson by millionaire trader Bill Lipschutz. Fear of missing out or always entering and exiting trades can really eat into your performance. If you can have patience to wait for your trading setups ( yes even as a day trader or scalper) you will see a very big improvement in results.

How many times have you entered a trade early because you couldn’t sit on your hands and wait for the right time?

It happens I know but learning the discipline to follow the strategy is very important. How many times do you wish you didn’t enter a trade or waited? All these errors can ad up over time to something much more problematic.

If you struggle with trading errors, you can download this trading error template to keep track going forward.



7. The Single Most Important Thing Is To Learn From Failures
Ray Dalio believes failure plays an important role in the journey of a trader. Throughout life, we are taught to avoid failure (exams, driving tests etc) but it is a necessary part of anyone’s journey.

Why?

We learn far more from failures than successes. So with that in mind, don’t be afraid to fail. Every billionaire once failed at something. The important part is you learn from the mistakes.

You’ve more than likely heard it many times but the Thomas Edison quote rings true here.



“I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”

Talk about never giving up! But as long as you are improving and learning from different mistakes you are making, don’t be discouraged. You will question your own sanity sometimes in this job (I have on countless occasions) and it can really be tough.

But my greatest breakthroughs came right after I made some monumental failures.



8. Perfection In Trading Is Not Necessary
Okay, you are reading that and think what ?? But think about it. Larry Hite said it is incredible how rich you can get by not being perfect. You will encounter many setbacks on your journey but if a trader of his level says this, you should take note.

So many of us want to be perfect. In trading that could manifest itself through wanting to always be right in trades and have a high win percentage. However, that is nonsense.

You see how trading is doing exactly the opposite of what we grew up learning? We should only focus on risk reward. That is a far more important aspect of a trading system than the need for perfection and a high win percentage.



9. Don’t Do What’s Comfortable, Do What’s Right
Picture for a moment you just had a string of losing trades. You followed your trading plan perfectly and still had these losses. It’s normal to encounter these losses. But now imagine another trade is setting up and you are fearful of entering the trade so you don’t pull the trigger.

That trade turns out to be a big winner that would have wiped all those other losses away. Have you ever been there?

In this scenario, you did what was more comfortable, not what was right. Again, don’t be too hard on yourself. We all do it. Learn from it and move on but top traders always pull the trigger.



10. Consistency Is Key
Nate, a day trading millionaire says consistency is key. Wild violent swings in your profit chart is not healthy for the mental health. Keep things simple and follow a proven approach and you are ahead of many in the industry.

Would you rather bet the house on a trade and potentially make or more importantly lose a ton? Or have small consistent gains which add up over time?



I know what I’d prefer. Keep things simple and consistent. Your health is more important 🙂



11. Win or Lose, You Are Responsible For Your Trading Results
How many of us have blamed the markets, the weather, our neighbor or whatever for a poor trading result?

We’ve all made excuses,( well most of us anyway) at one point or another. And where do you think it has gotten us?

Absolutely nowhere!

The trading result didn’t change and we were in the exact same position. So take responsibility for your own trading. How can you ever improve if you don’t take full responsibility for anything you do?

Sure you might feel better blaming others but does it change the outcome? More than likely it doesn’t. So knuckle down and start improving. In the future when you look back with a smile, you’ll be glad you took charge sooner.



What Can We Learn In Summary From These Lessons?
There is a common theme among all these lessons which can be summarized into the following:

Risk Management is EXTREMELY important
Trading psychology plays a MASSIVE role in performance
Failing is part of learning
Risk/Reward is more important than perfection
Focus and discipline are VERY important
Patience is a virtue in trading (wait for the right setup as part of your plan)
More than likely if you have read any trading literature, you’ll have read these lessons before in some form or another. There is good reason you hear it over and over again.

Why? Because it works. Plain and simple.

Final Words
There is a lot to take in from these lessons. I would suggest taking it one step at a time. Focus on getting good on one lesson and then move onto the next one. These millionaire traders have stood the test of time. They were not some overnight success stories so the lessons are tried and tested.

We all have failures but Ray Dalio highlights the importance of failing and learning from it. I’m fully aware some of you are struggling in your trading. I’ve been right there so I know first hand the struggles you are going through.

Labels: Investment Quote

Credit: Rayner Teo

21 trading rules that will improve your trading
1. When you are trading size, you have to get out when the market lets you out, not when you want to get out.

The old high was at 56.80, there are probably going to be a lot of buy stops at 56.85. If the market is trading 70 bid, 75 offered, the whole trading ring has a vested interest in buying the market, touching off those stops and liquidating into the stops.

If I want to cover a position in that type of situation, I will liquidate half at 75, and the remaining half beyond that point.

2. Never play macho with the market and don’t over trade.

My major problem was not the number of points I lost on the trade, but that I was trading far too many contracts relative to the equity in the accounts that I handled.

3. If I have positions going against me, I get out; if they are going for me, I keep them.

4. I will keep cutting my position size down as I have losing trades.

When I am trading poorly, I keep reducing my position size. That way, I will be trading my smallest position when my trading is worst.

5. Don’t ever average losers.

6. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well.

7. Never trade in situations you don’t have control.

I don’t risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports since that is gambling, not trading.

8. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, get out. Because you can always get back in.

9. Don’t be too concerned about where you got into a position.

The only relevant question is whether you are bullish or bearish on the position that day.

10. The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not offense.

Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be.

I do that so I can define my maximum possible drawdown. if my positions are going against me, then I have a game plan for getting out.

11. Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego.

Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.

12. I consider myself a premier market opportunist.

I develop an idea on the market and pursue it from a very low-risk standpoint until I have repeatedly been proven wrong, or until I change my viewpoints.

13. I believe the very best money is to be made at market turns.

Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all the money by catching the trends in the middle.

Well, for twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops.

14. Everything gets destroyed a hundred times faster than it is built up.

It takes one day to tear down something that might have taken ten years to build.

15. Markets move sharply when they move.

If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try to fade that price move.

When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.

16. When I trade, I don’t just use a price stop, I also use a time stop.

If I think a market should break, and it doesn’t, I will often get out even if I’m not losing any money.

17. Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.

18. You always want to be with whatever the predominant trend is.

19. My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices.

I’ve seen too many things go to zero, stocks and commodities. The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything?” If you use the 200-day moving average rule, then you get out. You play defense, and you get out.

20. At the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s?

21. I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities.

You should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward-risk relationship so greatly in your favor, that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward-risk opportunities, that gives you minimum drawdown pain, and maximum upside opportunities.

Conclusion
Do you want to learn more?

Click on the link below to access the Top 100 Trading Rules of all time.

These trading rules are personally handpicked by me and include the biggest names in trading, like Jesse Livermore, Paul Tudor Jones, and Ed Seykota.

Labels: Investment Quote